Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the U.S. economy may lose momentum in the coming quarters, predicting a GDP growth of only 1.1% year-on-year in Q4 2025, significantly below the estimated potential growth rate of 2% [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. domestic demand is weak, with consumer spending expected to grow only 0.8% in the second half of the year, which is typically a major driver of the U.S. economy [1] - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs added, far below expectations, with previous months' figures also revised down significantly [1] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The report indicates that the uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff policies is dragging down the economy, with tariffs expected to rise to double digits for most countries next week [1] - Corporate investment is projected to decline at an annualized rate of 0.6%, partly due to companies reducing spending after preemptively purchasing equipment before tariff increases [2] Group 3: Short-term Support Factors - Despite weak consumer and business spending, Goldman Sachs notes that corporate inventory replenishment and a narrowing trade deficit may provide some short-term support to overall GDP [2] - The trade deficit is expected to shrink from 3.1% of GDP at the end of 2024 to 2.4% by the end of 2025, as high tariffs may reduce imports and a weaker dollar, along with limited retaliatory measures from other countries, could support U.S. exports [2]