每经记者｜李彪 每经编辑｜毕陆名 近日，31个省（市、区）中除了吉林、新疆、西藏外，其他28个省（市、区）已陆续公布了2018年上半 年经济运行情况。这些地方上半年GDP增速整体呈现"三升六平十九降"的趋势。其中，GDP增速排名前 三位的依次是贵州、云南、江西，同比增幅分别为：10.0%、9.2%、9.0%，天津以GDP同比增速3.4%居 末位。 《每日经济新闻》记者梳理发现，2018年上半年GDP增速排名前十位中，中部六省有五省列席其中，分 别是江西、安徽、湖北、湖南、河南。而2016年上半年、2017年上半年排名GDP增速排名前十位中均占 3席，西部地区均占有5席。值得注意的是，与2017年上半年相比，正向变动幅度最大的是辽宁，从GDP 增长2.1%到2018年上半年的5.6%，上升3.5个百分点。负向变动最大的是重庆，从10.5%到2018年上半年 6.5%，下降了4个百分点。 与之相对应的是，辽宁省规模以上工业增加值增幅达到10.3%排名第二，仅次于陕西。重庆今年上半年 规模以上工业增加值增幅出现了"断崖式"下滑，同比增长幅度仅为1.8%，而2017年上半年重庆规模以上 工业增加值按可比价格计算同比增 ...

新华财经基辅11月18日电（记者李东旭）欧盟委员会17日发布欧盟秋季经济预测报告（以下称报告） 称，由于关键能源基础设施持续遭袭击叠加乌农业产出下降，作为欧盟候选国的乌克兰今年国内生产总 值（GDP）增速预计将从春季预测的2%降至1.6%。 报告称，今年乌财政赤字将继续扩大。虽然乌自2024年12月开始将军税税率从1.5%增加至5%，大幅增 加了乌财政收入（2025年1至8月乌军税收入1033亿格里夫纳，同比增长4倍），但由于国防采购和军事 人员薪酬支出增长超过财政收入增长，今年乌财政赤字占GDP的比重预计将从2024年的18.1%上升至 23.8%。 报告称，2026年乌国防和安全支出将保持高位，考虑到乌采取了加强海关管理和提高银行所得税税率 等，明年乌财政赤字将收窄至GDP的21.2%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 报告称，俄乌冲突的延宕导致乌供应链的破坏和劳动力短缺，乌国内生产能力将继续受限制，预计乌 2026年GDP增速将继续下滑至1.5%。 报告称，2023年，乌通货膨胀率有所回落，但自2024年年中以来，再次反弹，至今年9月，乌通货膨胀 率同比增长11.9%。受食品、燃油和劳动力成本价格持续上涨影响， ...

Economic Comparison - The U.S. economy faces multiple constraints, with public debt exceeding $34 trillion and interest payments accounting for 3.5% of GDP, limiting fiscal space and resulting in a mere 2.1% growth in infrastructure investment [1] - In contrast, China's fixed asset investment maintains a growth rate of 6.3%, supported by supply-side structural reforms, highlighting its resilience in the global value chain [1] GDP Revision Insights - The revision of China's GDP in 2023 reflects a comprehensive coverage from the fifth national economic census, increasing sample enterprises from 800,000 to 1 million and enhancing statistical accuracy by 15% [3] - The adjustment raised the value added of the tertiary industry by 1.1 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from the information transmission and software service sectors, driven by the deployment of over 3.2 million 5G base stations [3] Structural Adjustments - The share of the secondary industry remains stable at 37.9%, but there is a shift from traditional steel to high-tech sectors like photovoltaic cells, with a 20% increase in export volume [5] - The contribution rate of consumption in China has risen to 52%, with e-commerce transactions growing by 12%, compensating for fluctuations in exports [5] Employment and Investment - China's infrastructure investment in 2023 reached 10 trillion yuan, creating employment for 100 million people, while R&D expenditure accounted for 2.64% of GDP [7] - The high-tech manufacturing sector saw a significant increase, with the added value reaching 16.3% of industrial output, indicating a shift towards digital and intelligent manufacturing [9] Trade Resilience - In 2023, China's goods trade amounted to $5.3 trillion, with service trade contributing an additional $50 billion, showcasing resilience amid U.S.-China trade tensions [13] - The digital silk road facilitated over $100 billion in exports of 5G equipment, supporting digitalization along the Belt and Road [13] Cultural and Tourism Recovery - The cultural and tourism sectors demonstrated strong recovery, with domestic tourism generating 5 trillion yuan and digital content reaching 150 billion yuan [15] - Employment in the platform economy has expanded to 200 million, reflecting the robust growth of flexible employment opportunities [15] Future Projections - By 2025, China's GDP is projected to reach 141 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.2%, while the U.S. is expected to grow at 1.9%, indicating a narrowing gap between the two economies [17] - This trend is expected to enhance China's global influence and provide a stable economic model for future development [17]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has observed signs of economic weakness in the United States, with expectations that the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter will be lower than the previously predicted 1.9% due to the impact of government shutdowns [1] Economic Indicators - The IMF's ability to assess the performance of the U.S. economy has been affected by data shortages resulting from the government shutdown [1]

Economic Growth Overview - The UK economy continues to slow down, with a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q3 2025, down from 0.3% in the previous quarter, and a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, indicating moderate expansion [1][6] - Nominal GDP increased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter and 5.1% year-on-year, primarily driven by rising employee compensation [1] Sector Performance - The production sector experienced a significant decline, with a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 0.9% year-on-year decrease, marking two consecutive quarters of decline [4] - The services sector showed resilience, with a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.6% year-on-year growth, becoming the core driver of economic growth [3] - Construction output grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, relying mainly on maintenance activities, while new construction projects saw a decline [3] Consumer and Investment Trends - Household final consumption expenditure rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year, with clothing and entertainment being key growth areas [4] - Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and 3.8% year-on-year, although corporate investment showed a slight decline [4] Trade and International Comparison - Exports and imports both saw slight declines, with trade deficit accounting for 0.6% of nominal GDP [4] - Compared to other G7 economies, the UK's Q3 growth rate of 0.1% is lower than the US (0.9%) and Canada (0.1%), but on par with Germany and Italy [4] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the UK's GDP slowdown reflects pressures from both production and demand sides, but the resilience of the services sector and capital formation may prevent economic contraction [6] - Wage growth and moderate inflation could reduce the urgency for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England [6]

他提到，2025年我国出口表现超预期，上半年净出口对GDP增长贡献率超过30%。10月底中美经贸团队 通过吉隆坡磋商取得阶段性成果，美方将取消针对中国商品加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品 加征的24%对等关税继续暂停一年。 当被问及实现5%左右GDP增速目标的支撑条件时，黄文涛对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，首先，外需 仍具有韧性。 "若协议得以有效执行，且非美经济体需求保持扩张，2026年出口增速有望继续超出预期。"黄文涛说。 其次，明年房地产拖累有望收窄。黄文涛提到，今年前三季度，全国房地产开发投资同比下降13.9%， 新建商品房销售额同比下降7.9%。"据我们地产研究团队测算，2026年全国房地产开发投资降幅或略有 收窄；新建商品房销售额降幅或收窄至5%以内，对经济的负向拉动减弱。" 11月11日至13日，中信建投证券与沙特交易所联合主办的"2026年资本市场峰会暨中国-沙特投资合作论 坛"在北京举行。中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛在论坛上表示，在政策发力之下，明年中国有望实 现5%左右的GDP增速。 黄文涛认为，2026年为"十五五"规划开局之年，具备"高起步"特征。按照2035年人均GDP达到 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessenet, warned that the slowdown in cargo transportation is a consequence of the ongoing government shutdown, which has lasted for 40 days, marking the longest federal government shutdown to date [1][3] - Bessenet indicated that the economic situation is deteriorating due to the shutdown, leading to potential shortages in supply chains and during the holiday season [1] - If the shutdown continues, Bessenet projected that the U.S. economic growth for the fourth quarter could be halved, while White House economic advisor Hassett suggested that the growth rate might turn negative [3] Economic Impact - The prolonged government shutdown has raised concerns about economic issues, particularly inflation, which continues to rise during this period [1] - The potential economic growth reduction highlights the significant impact of government operations on overall economic performance [3]

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown has lasted a record 38 days, with significant economic impacts that were underestimated initially [1] - The White House's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, indicated that the GDP growth for Q4 may be halved from the original expectation of at least 3% [1] - The tourism and leisure sectors are among the hardest hit, with potential short-term recession if airline travel continues to decline [1] - The construction sector is also facing challenges, with construction projects slowing down, indicating the shutdown's effects are spreading from federal to private sectors [1] Labor Market and Economic Recovery - There is a noted degree of weakness in the labor market, attributed to the uncertainty caused by the prolonged government shutdown [2] - Hassett expressed optimism that the U.S. economy could rebound quickly once the government reopens [3] - Discontent was voiced regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's suggestion of a potential pause in interest rate cuts, highlighting ongoing tensions between the Trump administration and the Fed on monetary policy [3] - Despite the negative impacts of the shutdown, Hassett did not classify any economic sector as being in recession, indicating some internal differences in economic assessments within the White House [3]

Core Points - The government shutdown will significantly reduce the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter [1] - The tourism and leisure industry is among the hardest hit sectors due to the shutdown [1]

Core Points - The Bank of England decided to maintain the base interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations [1][4] - This decision pauses the trend of quarterly rate cuts that began in August 2024 [2] - The Monetary Policy Committee's decision reflects concerns over high overall inflation rates in the UK [4] Economic Outlook - The Bank of England has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5% from a previous estimate of 1.25% [6] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted, with the one-year inflation forecast now at 2.5%, down from 2.7% [6] - The overall inflation risk is perceived to be more stable, with expectations for inflation to approach 3% by early 2026 and reach the 2% target by the second quarter of 2027 [6] Monetary Policy Insights - The decision to keep rates unchanged was passed with a 5-4 vote, with Governor Bailey casting the decisive vote [8] - Bailey indicated that future rate cuts are likely but depend on confirming that inflation is moving towards the 2% target [8] - The upcoming autumn budget is expected to influence future monetary policy decisions, with potential tax increases to address fiscal gaps [10][12] Currency Impact - Following the announcement, the British pound fell approximately 30 points against the US dollar, trading at 1.30606 [3][9] - Analysts predict continued pressure on the pound, with expectations of further depreciation if rate cuts occur in December [9] Fiscal Considerations - The upcoming autumn budget is critical for determining the timing of any future rate cuts, with expectations of tax measures to mitigate inflation [10][11] - Economic activity is currently subdued, with uncertainty surrounding the budget leading to delays in financial planning for businesses and households [12]