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大摩:中国市场-基本面 VS 资金面?
2025-08-24 14:47
August 22, 2025 06:44 AM GMT 中国⸺经济温度计 | Asia Pacific 基本面VS资金面? 8月经济似在放缓,但流动性、反内卷和促消费却支撑市场叙 事。相比历史上的"水牛",目前股市杠杆仍处合理区间, 不至引发政策干预。我们列出了资金和叙事方面值得关注的 重要指标。 三季度GDP同比增速或回落到4.5%左右:高基数⹖抢退坡影响,8月份 同比增速或将从7月份的7.2%放缓至5-6%的间。本月高频数据显示中国对美集装 箱船⺆数量继续下滑,⹛映退坡正在进行时。内需方面,尽管中央已于7月底 之⯥向地方政府下达了第三批690亿人民币的消费品以旧换新国补资金,8月⯥10 天汽车与线上家电销售同比在低基数的Ⲃⱱ下依然大幅下跌。这或⹛映了部⮇地 对国补资金使用监管的ⱶ强,以⹖某些城市采"每日限额领⯉"的影响。同 时,房地产持续下行所带来的负财富效应也可能继续拖累消费信心。⺁一方面, 天气扰ⲁ⬵弱,⹖⯥期政府债⯉资金的拨付或有Ⲃ当月基建增速小幅回ⶍ。但考 虑⮽未来⭓个月财政脉⫿⬵弱,其回ⶍ态ⲡ或难以持续。 流动性和宏观叙事支撑市场情绪:我们股票策略团队编⯆的大摩自由流ⲁ性指数 自今年6月起已由 ...
菲2025年GDP增速难达目标上限
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-13 17:55
(原标题:菲2025年GDP增速难达目标上限) 据菲《商业世界》8月11日报道,菲今年GDP增速难达政府6.5%的增长上限。菲二季度GDP 增速5.5%,上半年GDP增速5.4%,若全年要实现目标上限,下半年需7.5%增速,难度较 大。主要风险为美国对菲商品加征19%关税、全球经济放缓及外劳汇款回流趋缓等。惠誉集 团旗下研究机构BMI预计菲今年GDP增速约5.4%,多家机构亦下调或维持较温和预测;菲政 府基建加速与央行降息或为有限支撑,但外部与投融资疲弱仍将带来经济下行风险。 ...
高盛预警:关税冲击+消费投资双疲弱 美国Q4 GDP增速或骤降至1.1%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-05 06:37
上述数据共同反映出,特朗普关税政策导致商业不确定性加剧,从而拖累经济。下周起,大多数国家面 临的关税将升至两位数水平。 高盛的报告暗示,特朗普可能还需要为今年更多糟糕的数据做好准备。企业投资预计将以年化0.6%的 速度下降,部分原因是企业在关税上调前提前采购设备后开始削减支出。Jan Hatzius补充称,投资也将 受到"政策不确定性和对经济前景担忧"的拖累。 尽管消费者和企业支出预计仍将保持疲软,但高盛的报告指出,企业补库存以及贸易逆差的缩小可能在 短期内为美国整体GDP提供一些支撑。高盛预计,贸易逆差将从2024年底相当于GDP的3.1%缩小至 2025年底的2.4%,这是因为高关税可能减少进口,而美元走弱以及其他国家的报复措施有限有助于支 撑美国出口。 (原标题:高盛预警:关税冲击+消费投资双疲弱 美国Q4 GDP增速或骤降至1.1%) 智通财经APP获悉,高盛警告称,美国经济可能在未来几个季度进一步失去动能,此前公布的就业报告 显示,关税带来的压力正在加剧。高盛在一份报告中预测,2025年第四季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)预 计仅同比增长1.1%,远低于该行估计的2%的潜在增长水平。 高盛首席经济学家 ...
2025Q2美国GDP数据点评:增速虽反弹,美国经济放缓趋势难改
Orient Securities· 2025-08-04 09:13
Economic Growth Insights - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3%, significantly above the expected 2.6% and a recovery from the previous quarter's -0.5%[6] - Personal consumption increased by 1.4% compared to the previous quarter's 0.5%, while private investment saw a sharp decline of -15.6% from a prior growth of 23.8%[6] - Domestic final sales, which exclude trade, inventory, and government impacts, recorded a mere 1.2% growth, down from 1.9%, indicating a weakening underlying economic momentum[6] Consumption and Investment Trends - Personal consumption, a critical component of GDP, showed a slight recovery but remained low at 1.4%, with goods outperforming services[6] - Private investment's significant contraction of -15.6% contributed to a 3.1% drag on GDP, with both residential and non-residential investments shrinking for two consecutive quarters[6] - The decline in consumer confidence and income growth is expected to further suppress consumer demand moving forward[6] Inflation and Policy Outlook - The PCE price index for Q2 2025 rose to 2.6%, exceeding expectations, while the core PCE index reached 2.8%[6] - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident in consumer prices, with notable increases in durable goods and services[6] - The market may be overestimating both economic growth and inflation, with potential for monetary policy easing in 2026, contrary to current market pricing[6]
海外策略周报:非农遇冷对海外资产有何影响?-20250804
Ping An Securities· 2025-08-04 02:50
Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. economy showed resilience in Q2 with a GDP growth rate rebounding to 3.0% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis, while year-over-year growth remained steady at 2% [3][4][5] - The report highlights a significant drop in non-farm employment numbers for July, with only 73,000 jobs added, down from a revised 147,000 in June, indicating a potential weakening in the labor market [16][22] - The report notes that the U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the PCE index, has increased, with personal consumption expenditures rising from 4.66% to 4.75% year-over-year, suggesting some resilience in consumer spending [15][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of tariff policies, indicating that the average effective tariff in the U.S. may rise to around 17% following the implementation of the latest tariffs, which could lead to an increase in inflation and a decrease in GDP growth [27][24] - The report mentions that the U.S. stock market has experienced volatility, with major indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ seeing declines of 2.92%, 2.36%, and 2.17% respectively, reflecting market concerns over economic data [29][2] - The report suggests that the healthcare sector is one of the few areas showing positive performance in the Hong Kong stock market, while sectors like materials and technology are facing declines [2]
美国关税税率创1934年来新高!耶鲁研究:GDP增速将年降0.5%,家庭支出增2400美元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 03:13
就业数据恶化加剧市场担忧 美国劳工部8月1日公布的数据显示,7月非农就业人数增长仅7.3万个,远低于预期的10万个,且失业率小幅上升至4.2%。更令市场震惊的是,5月和6月就业 数据被大幅下调,5月新增非农就业人数从之前公布的14.4万降至仅1.9万,6月从14.7万下调至1.4万,两个月合计向下调整了25.8万个职位。 美国关税政策持续发酵,全球金融市场面临严峻挑战。耶鲁大学最新研究显示,截至7月31日,美国对进口商品征收的平均有效关税税率已达18.3%,创下 1934年以来的历史新高。这一数据标志着美国贸易保护主义政策达到近百年来的极端水平。 关税政策冲击经济预期 美国白宫7月31日发布公告,特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》等法律签署行政令,公布69个贸易伙伴的输美商品关税税率。根据公告内容,这些贸易伙 伴的商品进入美国市场时将被征收10%至41%不等的关税税率。其中,适用15%税率的国家或地区有40个,适用19%或20%税率的国家或地区有10个。新关 税税率在行政令发布7天后开始实施。 耶鲁大学预算实验室研究认为,关税政策将导致美国2025年和2026年实际国内生产总值增长率每年降低0.5个百分点。关税 ...
再次按下“暂停键”,日本央行宣布不加息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 04:48
继隔夜美联储宣布"按兵不动"之后,北京时间7月31日上午,日本央行也公布最新利率决议,宣布维持 基准政策利率在0.5%不变,符合市场预期。从市场表现看,利率决议公布后,美元兑日元汇率盘中跌 幅进一步扩大。 此前市场机构研判,美日贸易协定消除了外部不确定性的一个关键来源,但日本国内政治风险上升又成 为了日本央行加息的掣肘因素。从日前公布的最新通胀数据看,除生鲜食品外,东京都23区7月份消费 者物价指数同比上涨2.9%,较前一个月回落,也增加了日本央行维持宽松货币政策不变的可能性。 相比是否继续推迟加息,日本央行此次会议的焦点是其在多大程度上释放再次加息的信号。从日本央行 发布的声明看,其认为贸易政策及其变化带来的不确定性对经济和物价前景的影响仍然很大。由于经济 增长放缓,潜在通胀可能会停滞,但此后将逐渐加速。如果经济和物价走势与预测相符,日本央行将根 据其改善情况上调政策利率。 在公布的最新通胀数据预测中,日本央行上调了核心CPI预期,预计2025—2027财年核心CPI预期中值 分别为2.7%、1.8%和2.0%,5月的预期分别为2.2%、1.7%和1.9%。对于GDP增速,日本央行预计2025财 年GDP增 ...
2025年二季度美国GDP数据点评:“抢进口”效果反转,推动美Q2增速超预期
CMS· 2025-07-31 02:57
证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 31 日 "抢进口"效果反转,推动美 Q2 增速超预期 —2025 年二季度美国 GDP 数据点评 频率:每月 事件: 2025 年 7 月 30 日美国商务部经济分析局(BEA)发布:2025 年二季 度美国实际 GDP 环比折年率初值 3.0%(前值-0.5%)。 点评报告 相关报告 1、《工企利润增速仍在低位震 荡———2025 年 6 月工业企业 利润分析》2025-07-27 2、《"加密周"来袭——加密 资产半月谈》2025-07-16 3、《关税影响初步显现——美 国 6 月 CPI 点评》2025-07-16 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 张岸天 S1090522070002 zhangantian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 美国 25Q2 实际 GDP 环比折年率初值录得 3.0%,主因美国企业"抢进口" 的影响消退之后,随着商品贸易逆差快速收窄,净出口项在本季拉动 GDP 增速 5.0 个百分点。除净出口和库存等波动项外,个人消费支出 ...
31省份经济半年报:多省经济增长超预期,消费投资增速差异大
经济观察报· 2025-07-29 11:12
Core Viewpoint - The economic performance of various provinces in China during the first half of 2025 shows significant disparities, with some provinces exceeding growth expectations while others, particularly in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, are experiencing declines in consumer spending and employment satisfaction [4][6][10]. Economic Growth Performance - Among the top eight economic provinces, all except Guangdong achieved GDP growth rates above the national average of 5.3%, with rates ranging from 5.6% to 6.2% [3][4][7]. - In total, 21 provinces reported GDP growth rates exceeding their initial annual targets, indicating a strong foundation for achieving these goals [4][6]. Consumer Spending Trends - The retail sales growth in Beijing and Shanghai was notably low, with Beijing experiencing a decline of 3.8% in retail sales, while Shanghai's growth was only 1.7%, placing them among the lowest in the country [13][24]. - Nationally, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, with 19 provinces exceeding the national average retail sales growth of 5% [10][11]. Employment and Consumer Confidence - Beijing's employment satisfaction index fell to a historical low of 75.2, reflecting a decline in consumer confidence, which has remained below the critical threshold of 100 for four consecutive quarters [17][19][23]. - The consumer confidence index in Beijing was reported at 95.3, indicating weak consumer sentiment primarily driven by employment expectations [17][18]. Fixed Asset Investment Trends - Several major provinces, including Guangdong and Jiangsu, reported negative growth in fixed asset investment, with Guangdong's investment declining by 9.7% and Jiangsu by 3.9% [27][29]. - The downturn in real estate development investment significantly impacted overall fixed asset investment, with Guangdong's real estate investment dropping by 16.3% [28][29]. Regional Economic Disparities - While some provinces like Hubei and Hebei showed strong economic performance, with Hubei's GDP growth at 6.2% and Hebei's real estate investment increasing by 2.0%, others struggled with negative growth [8][34]. - The overall economic landscape indicates a need for targeted policies to stimulate consumer confidence and investment, particularly in regions facing economic challenges [32][34].
“十四五”中国税务部门累计征收税费料逾155万亿元
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-07-29 09:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's tax revenue is expected to exceed 155 trillion yuan, accounting for about 80% of total fiscal revenue [1] - Tax revenue (excluding export tax rebates) is projected to surpass 85 trillion yuan, an increase of 13 trillion yuan compared to the total tax revenue during the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The tax authority's collection of social insurance fees and land transfer fees is expected to exceed 70 trillion yuan, strengthening the financial foundation for economic and social development [1] Group 2 - The structure of tax revenue is improving, with manufacturing tax revenue maintaining a steady share of around 30%, indicating the sector's crucial role in the economy [1] - The fastest growth in tax revenue is seen in modern service industries such as information software and technology services [1] - The number of tax-related business entities has surpassed 100 million, reflecting strong market vitality and resilience [2] Group 3 - Tax policies aimed at improving people's livelihoods in areas such as elderly care, childcare, healthcare, and education are expected to reduce tax burdens by an average of 11.7% annually from 2021 to 2024 [2] - Economic factors such as tax cuts, price changes, and tax source structures influence tax revenue, leading to discrepancies between economic growth and tax revenue [2] - The decline in growth rates of traditional industries like real estate has resulted in slower tax revenue growth, while emerging industries, despite their positive momentum, currently contribute less to overall tax revenue [2]