商业航天航空

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一周研读|两个关键时点
中信证券研究· 2025-03-29 02:06
Key Points - The article highlights two critical time points in 2025: the trading opportunities arising from external risk resolution in early April and the allocation opportunities following the synchronization of the economic and policy cycles between China and the U.S. in mid-year [2][3] - The technology sector is expected to be a strong focus for investment in April and May, following significant adjustments in March and potential catalysts [3] - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on core assets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as the market is anticipated to undergo a significant style shift due to the recovery of traditional core assets [3] - The deep-sea technology sector is recognized as a strategic emerging industry, with government support expected to accelerate its development, similar to the low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace sectors [6][9] - Investment opportunities in the deep-sea technology industry are identified across the entire supply chain, including upstream core components, midstream equipment, and downstream operations and services [6] - The article suggests that the deep-sea technology sector could open up a new trillion-level market, driven by both market and policy catalysts [6][9] - The focus on stable earnings and low-valuation themes is recommended, particularly in low-tier consumption, AI+ themes, and commercial aerospace [3][9] - The potential risks include intensified U.S.-China friction, geopolitical conflicts, and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations [4][10]
主题聚焦|关注业绩稳健的低位主题
中信证券研究· 2025-03-24 00:12
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on low-position themes with stable performance, such as low-position consumption, AI+ themes, and commercial aerospace, as high-position themes are expected to experience fluctuations [1][2][3]. Market Overview - Active capital positions are currently high, leading to market corrections and a shift in thematic styles, with previously popular themes declining [1]. - The past two weeks have seen rapid rotation in thematic markets lacking sustainability, with a decrease in market liquidity and activity [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated a pause in interest rate adjustments, reducing concerns about a U.S. recession and inflation [3]. - European countries are increasing defense spending amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, with plans to invest €800 billion in defense upgrades [4][5]. Thematic Environment - The market is witnessing a decline in transaction volume, with a heightened focus on assets with high performance and low relative valuations [3]. - The A-share market has experienced significant pullbacks, with major indices declining and average daily trading volume dropping to around 1.5 trillion [5]. Catalytic Factors - Financial policies supporting consumption are being implemented, including increased loan limits for personal consumption [6]. - Internet companies are set to launch new AI platforms and products in March and April, which may stimulate interest in the AI+ application sector [6][7]. - The domestic large aircraft industry is entering a new phase of scale and industrialization, potentially increasing market share [7]. Key Focus Areas - The focus is on low-position consumption policies that may boost the low-position consumption sector, the large aircraft industry that is expected to grow, and the upcoming AI product launches that could drive the AI+ application sector [7].