沪指本周累计涨3.49%，深证成指累计涨4.57%，创业板指累计涨5.85%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎 么说： ①中信证券：此轮行情并不是散户市 中信证券发文称，从各类资金情况来看，此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推动者并非散户；事实上 本轮行情从起步到加速，核心线索都是围绕产业趋势和业绩；既然都是聪明的钱入场占主导地位，就不 能执迷于类比过往行情走势。随着2020~2021年发行的产品整体步入盈亏平衡区域，市场会有个新旧资 金接力的过程；未来行情的延续需要的是新的配置线索，而不是拘泥于"钱多"和流动性。配置上，建议 继续聚焦资源、创新药、游戏和军工，开始关注化工，逐步增配一些"反内卷+出海"品种，9月消费电子 板块也值得关注。 ②光大证券：市场中长期仍然有望持续上行，或以"轮动补涨"特征为主 光大证券研报指出，展望未来，市场仍然有望继续上行。目前来看，支撑股票市场上涨的逻辑并没有发 生变化，市场估值目前也较为合理，并未出现明显透支。此外，还有一些新的积极因素正在出现，如美 联储降息周期可能会开启、公募资金发行出现回暖。综合来看，市场中长期仍然有望持续上行。当前来 看，本轮行情或许会以"轮动补涨"特征为主， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market indices collectively rose this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, increasing over 2% [1] - The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices saw weekly gains of 1.25% and 0.49%, respectively [1] - The upward trend of the market is supported by liquidity and ongoing policy measures, which are expected to optimize supply and demand dynamics [1] Economic Indicators - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a continuous expansion for three months [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% [2] Investment Insights - Dongwu Securities indicates a solid upward trend in the market, with expectations for overall profitability and return on equity (ROE) to stabilize and improve [4] - The market is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to technology sectors, with a focus on high-quality technology assets that may yield significant excess returns in Q3 [5][9] - Open-source Securities highlights a "dual-driven" market theme, with increasing margin financing balances and a clearer market direction driven by technology and PPI trading [6] Sector Focus - Investment opportunities are emerging in technology sectors such as AI, robotics, and high-end manufacturing, as well as in defensive high-dividend sectors [7][8] - Allianz Fund anticipates significant excess returns for quality technology assets in Q3, driven by a new cycle of value reassessment in the A-share market [9] - Citic Prudential Fund emphasizes the certainty of opportunities in manufacturing companies, particularly those with improving profitability and relatively low valuations [10]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has outperformed GDP growth for four consecutive quarters since Q3 2024, marking the first time since the second half of 2021[3] - The probability of the stock market outperforming GDP in China since 2000 is approximately 32%, with an average duration of about 6 quarters[4] - In contrast, the U.S. stock market has outperformed GDP over 60% of the time since 2000, indicating a stronger correlation between stock performance and economic growth in the U.S.[4] Group 2: Economic Context - The report emphasizes the importance of nominal GDP in the context of inflation and debt cycles, suggesting that nominal GDP reflects the economic value created across industries[3] - The analysis introduces a two-dimensional framework of real GDP and inflation, indicating that stock market outperformance is more likely during periods of "volume increase and price decrease" or "simultaneous volume and price increase"[4] - Historical examples show that when real GDP rises and the GDP deflator remains low, the probability and duration of stock market outperformance increase, as seen in the U.S. during the 1990s tech boom[7] Group 3: Factors Influencing Stock Performance - The report identifies two main factors contributing to stock market outperformance: earnings expectations (E) and non-earnings factors (PE) such as market sentiment and liquidity[4] - In the current context, the A-share market's outperformance is notable due to significant re-inflation pressures, which is relatively rare based on historical precedents[5] - The report suggests that future market trends could follow two paths: a technology-driven slow growth route or a cyclical recovery route with rising real GDP and inflation[10]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **A-share market** and the **Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Adjustments** The recent pullback in the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector significantly impacts market sentiment, indicating potential overall market adjustment risks [1][2][8] 2. **Currency Impact on A-shares** There is a notable negative correlation between the offshore RMB exchange rate and A-share performance. Recent RMB depreciation has been a key factor suppressing A-shares [1][3][10] 3. **Technical Analysis of Shanghai Composite Index** The Shanghai Composite Index faces mid-line resistance at 3,700-3,800 points and 4,000-4,100 points, with technical indicators suggesting a potential daily level adjustment until mid-August [1][5][11] 4. **Market Drivers** Current market trends are primarily driven by DDM model factors, including increased risk appetite, declining risk-free rates, and ample liquidity, despite economic recovery not meeting expectations [1][6] 5. **Short-term Support Levels** Key short-term support levels include gaps at 3,536 and 3,517 points, with the 60-day moving average serving as critical support if adjustments are significant [1][7][19] 6. **Sector Performance** The pharmaceutical, communication, and computer sectors remain advantageous, while cyclical resource stocks are expected to improve in the long term despite short-term weakness [1][12][23] 7. **Market Emotion and Future Trends** Despite recent index pullbacks, market sentiment has not significantly deteriorated, indicating potential investment opportunities in specific growth sectors [1][13] 8. **Current State of Construction and Real Estate Sectors** The construction, real estate, and building materials sectors are currently event-driven rather than driven by industry recovery, suggesting a lack of sustainability in recent gains [1][14] 9. **Transportation and Oil & Gas Sector Performance** Recent underperformance in the transportation and oil & gas sectors indicates that even dividend assets struggle to maintain stability in the current market environment [1][15] 10. **Future Market Predictions** The market is expected to undergo adjustments over the next 10 trading days, with potential support at the 3,536-point level. A rebound could lead to a larger top structure by late August [1][16][17][19] 11. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** It is advised to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with potential opportunities for mid-line accumulation near the 60-day moving average [1][20][19] 12. **Current Market Style and Sector Themes** The market is at a critical threshold for style shifts, with growth and value styles showing signs of potential switching. Close monitoring of momentum changes is necessary [1][21][22] 13. **Industry Scoring and Recommendations** Despite potential style shifts, sectors like pharmaceuticals, communications, and computing remain top-rated. Cyclical resource stocks are still recommended due to improved expectations [1][23] 14. **Thematic Investment Opportunities** Several thematic indices, such as the Traditional Chinese Medicine Index and AI Machine Index, are highlighted as having strong performance potential, particularly in the current market environment [1][24] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The correlation between the performance of the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector and the A-share market indicates that market movements are heavily influenced by sentiment rather than fundamental changes [1][9] - The potential for a significant market adjustment if the upward trend is not maintained, particularly in light of external pressures such as US inflation data and cross-border capital flows [1][18]

Group 1 - The market sentiment has improved despite a slight drop in the index, as funds have shifted from high-weight sectors to lower-weight sectors like robotics [1] - Financial stocks are identified as the only risk in the current market, which saw a significant decline in the afternoon session [1] - The outlook for the second half of the year is optimistic, with expectations of easing relations and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a better market environment [1] Group 2 - The market is currently in a bullish trend, with the 5-day moving average reaching new highs, indicating a positive outlook [2] - There is an expectation for a style switch in the market, with a focus on maintaining volume and sentiment [2] - The decline in bond prices is seen as beneficial for the stock market, suggesting a potential shift in investment dynamics [2]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a style shift, with funds moving from defensive assets to offensive ones, leading to a potential rebound in growth and technology stocks after a decline in dividend stocks [1] - The recent pullback in banks and other heavyweight stocks is seen as a rational correction, paving the way for a quick rebound once balance is restored [1] - Market sentiment is improving, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through the 3500-point level, with a potential acceleration in the coming weeks [6] Group 2 - Investors who remain optimistic about the market are more likely to recover losses, as historical trends show that patience can lead to significant rebounds [3][4] - The upcoming week is critical for A-share market trends, with expectations of a prolonged upward movement rather than a rapid spike [6] - Those who doubt the market's potential for growth risk missing out on opportunities, as the market rewards patience and logical thinking rather than mere cleverness [8]

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 今年来不断 被举牌、 创新高的银行， 涨势突然噶然而止 。 6月27日， A股所有银行股罕见全线收跌，六大国有大 行 中除建设银行下跌 2.09%外，其他几家基本均跌超 3%，还有几家城商行甚至跌超4%。 拉长时间看，从 2023年初开始，银行股就开启 一轮极为强势的持续 大涨行情，成为全市场最为被关注的行业 。 至今，农业银行、中国银行、交通银行、工商银行等几家国有大行，以及渝农商行、上海银行、沪农商行等区域银 行的 股价已经 实现 翻倍。 在期间，银行股也经历了很多轮被资金抱团炒高后又在资金退潮后回落，但无一例外，每一轮的阶段低点，都成为 了下一轮行情的起点。 这一次在显著拉升过后突然掉头大跌， 并 不能完全确定是否为本轮行情的阶段终点，但至少释放出了一个重磅的 信号 —— 风格切换 来了 。 截至 A股 收市，受权重股大跌拖累影响，沪指跌了 0.7%，但深成指和创业板都出现了小幅上涨。 共有 3379 只 个股上涨， 比例超过 6成，其中有6 0只涨停 ， 成交额 1.58万亿，仅小幅缩量475亿。 整体看， 市场交易情绪 ...

第一，系好安全带 目前，大盘指数没有问题，行情更没有问题，量能也很正常。只需要我们做好交易计划就行了，不出意外的情况下，市场开始出现风格切换了。 不需要恐慌，K线有自己的节奏，没有白酒、证券也能站上3400点，说明市场的上涨动能很大，一旦它们探底回升就是共振反弹了。 行情与以前不同了，这次是普涨的共振拉升，不是金融白酒等权重行业单纯的拉升指数了，不是ETF衍生品套利，是市场确实需要涨了。 今日的A股行情很简单，大盘指数放量上涨，重返3400点之后没有继续拉升，而是k线横盘了。 目前重视3400点很容易，只是白酒、银行压着指数罢了，白酒有短期利空，银行是风格的切换，大金融轮到证券上涨了。 对于接下来的行情，分享几个自己的观点，与大家共同讨论下，欢迎大家的批评指正…… 不出意外的情况下，明日会继续放量上涨，尾盘没有站稳3400点，只有3399.77点。成交量1.31万亿，当下的行情只需要我们做好交易计划就行了。 这个位置，大盘指数随时拉升，不需要恐慌了。跌的时候害怕，涨了也害怕，如何在股市挣到利润，一定要有自己的坚定的信仰才可以挣到足够多的利润。 在股市，没有什么事情比交易计划更重要了，有了交易计划只需要耐心执行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the A - share market showed narrow - range oscillations. The market is mainly pricing the progress of fundamental recovery, and the capital market's ability to boost valuations is limited. In June, with previous reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts already implemented, direct positive factors for the stock market are expected to be limited, and the market will likely continue to oscillate. The style - switching observation window in 2025 may be in August [3]. - The large - cap indices have outperformed small - cap indices for three consecutive months since March. The basis discount of stock index futures is relatively large, mainly affected by market hedging demand and periodic dividend factors [3]. - The Q1 2025 financial reports of A - share listed companies show a mixed performance. Although there are signs of profit recovery, it remains to be seen whether companies can maintain their Q1 net profit levels under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is rising. The valuation of A - shares is at a historical median, and future quasi - stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A - share valuations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Highlights of Stock Index Futures - **Market Oscillation**: In May, the A - share market had narrow - range oscillations. Wind All - A rose 2.39% monthly, CSI 1000 rose 1.28%, CSI 500 rose 0.7%, SSE 50 rose 1.73%, and SSE 300 rose 1.85%. The large - cap indices have outperformed small - cap indices for three consecutive months since March. In June, the stock market is expected to continue oscillating, and the style - switching window in 2025 may be in August [3]. - **Basis Discount**: The basis discount of stock index futures is relatively large. It mainly reflects market hedging demand, which depends on the existence of obvious Alpha returns. Dividend factors also have a significant impact on the basis discount. For example, the discount caused by dividends in CSI 1000 contracts ranges from 35 to 55 points [3]. - **Q1 Financial Reports**: After excluding finance, the year - on - year revenue growth rate of A - shares in Q1 was - 0.33%, and the net profit year - on - year was 3.4%. ROE was 6.34%, in the bottoming stage of a downward cycle. The performance of Q1 financial reports was mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out, but there are signs of recovery [3]. 3.2 Market Conditions in May - **Index Performance**: The large - cap indices outperformed small - cap indices for three consecutive months. At the end of May, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond was 1.72%, the dynamic P/E ratio of Wind All - A was 18.93 times, and the equity risk premium declined slightly. The valuations of CSI 1000 and SSE 300 increased slightly compared to the previous month [15][17]. - **Volatility and Margin Funds**: The implied volatility of index options continued to decline, with 1000IV at 21.64% and 300IV at 15.96%. The margin balance remained unchanged for three consecutive weeks, with relatively little marginal capital. At the end of May, it was 1.792 trillion yuan [24]. - **Sector Performance**: In May, the banking, non - banking finance, and pharmaceutical biology sectors drove the index, while TMT and power equipment sectors performed weakly [25]. 3.3 Index and Option Indicators - **Index Performance and Basis Discount**: CSI 1000 rose 1.28% monthly, CSI 500 rose 0.7%, SSE 300 rose 1.85%, and SSE 50 rose 1.73%. The basis discount annualization of each index showed a divergent upward trend [35][41][46]. - **Option Indicators**: For CSI 1000, SSE 300, and SSE 50 options, historical volatility, volatility cones, position PCR, and trading PCR data are provided, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [48][57][65]. 3.4 Trading Slippage - Trading slippage data for IM, IC, IF, and IH are provided, including long - and short - position slippage, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [73][76][78]

Market Overview - On May 21, domestic stock indices maintained a slight upward trend while the bond market experienced short-term gains followed by longer-term declines. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend rose by 0.21%, 0.47%, and 0.76% respectively, while the STAR 50 index fell by 0.22% [2] - The bond market saw yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds rise by 0.8 basis points and 1.3 basis points to 1.67% and 1.92% respectively [2] International Developments - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has led to increased selling pressure on US assets, causing a "sell America" trade to gain traction. The anticipated passage of Trump's tax cut plan is expected to further increase the deficit and push US bond prices down [3] - In Japan, investors are challenging the central bank's bond-buying program, leading to a significant rise in long-term Japanese bond yields. In the UK, April inflation data exceeded expectations, prompting traders to bet on a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [3] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity situation is gradually improving, with the central bank conducting a reverse repurchase operation of 157 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 65 billion yuan. Since May 15, the central bank has injected a total of 363.5 billion yuan into the market [4] - Overnight rates have decreased, with R001 and R007 falling to 1.54% and 1.59% respectively, indicating a return to a relatively reasonable range compared to the 1.40% policy rate [4] Bond Market Insights - The bond market faces challenges due to a prolonged information vacuum. Following the recent deposit rate cuts by major banks, it may be difficult to find new bullish catalysts until July or August. The market consensus is shifting towards discovering yield spreads or coupon rates [5] - As of May 21, 3-year AA-rated municipal bonds still offer attractive value, while strategies for longer durations may consider 5-year AA-rated municipal bonds [5] Equity Market Trends - The market style has shifted towards large-cap stocks, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 rising by 0.47% and 0.43% respectively, while the CSI 2000 and Wind Micro-cap indices fell by 0.80% and 0.94% [6] - The dividend sector outperformed, with the CSI Dividend index rising by 0.76%. This may be attributed to market rotation towards consumer sectors and favorable industry data, such as a 4.7% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in April [7] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.62% and 0.51% respectively, with the biopharmaceutical sector leading the gains. The AH share premium index has decreased, indicating a decline in the relative attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [8] Conclusion - Overall, the market is experiencing a temporary rotation towards large-cap stocks, with small-cap stocks facing pressure. The CSI 2000 index has stabilized after a significant pullback, suggesting that the trend of capital concentration has not yet shown signs of significant breakdown [9]