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美元流动性有所缓解,商品短期或震荡运行
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 12:18
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market declined last week and then rebounded, with an overall decline of 0.47%. The black sector led the decline, while precious metals and agricultural products rose. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as the possible end of the US government shutdown and mixed macro - economic indicators [1]. - Different commodity sectors, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, are expected to have short - term fluctuations based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The commodity market fell 0.47% last week. The black sector dropped 2.62%, energy and chemicals fell 0.41% and 0.06% respectively, while precious metals and agricultural products rose 0.11% and 0.57% [1]. - Among specific varieties, rapeseed meal, pulp, and eggs had the highest increases of 6.32%, 3.49%, and 2.32% respectively, while asphalt, iron ore, and methanol had the largest declines of 6.04%, 4.94%, and 3.12% [1]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased, and the market scale increased by nearly 10 billion, with only the precious metals sector showing net capital outflows [1]. 2. Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: Officials' hawkish remarks and the uncertainty of the US government shutdown situation may keep the sector in high - level fluctuations in the short - term [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: With a neutral macro - environment and mixed fundamentals, the sector is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - **Black Metals**: With weakening demand, falling production, and increasing raw material pressure, the sector may continue to be supported by costs and fluctuate [2]. - **Energy**: The oversupply of crude oil and the impact of the US government shutdown on demand may lead to short - term oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Chemicals**: Cost support from coal and mixed demand expectations may result in short - term fluctuations and mid - term anti - arbitrage opportunities [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The reduction of US soybean tariffs and the weak rebound of palm oil may lead to different trends in different agricultural products, with some under pressure [3]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had negative weekly returns, with a total scale increase of 0.81%. Energy - chemical, soybean meal, non - ferrous metal, and silver ETFs also had different return and scale changes [35].