Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. significantly rose to a four-month high in June, reflecting improved economic outlook and personal financial conditions [1] - The final value of the consumer confidence index for June increased from 52.2 in the previous month to 60.7, marking the largest increase since early 2024 with an 8.5-point rise [1] - Consumers expect prices to rise by 5% over the next year, which is an improvement from 6.6% in May, the largest monthly increase since 2001 [1] - Long-term inflation expectations have also decreased, with consumers anticipating a 4% annual increase in costs over the next five to ten years, lower than the previous month [1]

Group 1 - The US Consumer Confidence Index saw its largest increase since January 2024, rising by 8.3 points to 60.5, significantly exceeding all expectations from Bloomberg economists [1] - Consumers expect prices to rise by 5.1% over the next year, a substantial decrease from 6.6% in May, marking the largest single-month drop since October 2001 [1] - The improvement in consumer confidence indicates a reduction in anxiety regarding Trump's protectionist trade policies, with significant enhancements in economic expectations and personal financial outlooks [1] Group 2 - The core inflation indicator, excluding volatile food and energy categories, only rose by 0.1% in May, reflecting a calming of inflation concerns [2] - The expectations index surged by 10.5 points to 58.4, the largest increase since December 2023, while the current conditions index rose to a three-month high of 63.7 [2] - Confidence levels have increased across all political affiliations, with Republicans reaching their highest confidence index since October 2020, and Democrats and independents also hitting three-month peaks [2]

Group 1 - The final consumer confidence index for May from the University of Michigan in the United States is reported at 52.2, which exceeds the expected value of 51 and the previous value of 50.8 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. for May is reported at 50.8, marking a decline for the fifth consecutive month and is near the second lowest value recorded in history [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The initial value of the consumer confidence index for May is 50.8, down from the final value of 52.2 in April [1] - This decline indicates ongoing concerns about economic conditions, as the index has been decreasing for five months in a row [1] - The current index is close to the historical low of 50 reached in June 2022, which was influenced by soaring inflation and heightened recession fears [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped to its lowest level in two years, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline [1] Group 2 - The preliminary data released by the University of Michigan indicates a significant decrease in consumer confidence [1] - The decline in consumer confidence may reflect broader economic concerns among consumers [1] - This trend could have implications for consumer spending and overall economic growth in the U.S. [1]