Group 1: Aluminum Market Overview - Last week, aluminum prices experienced a dip and then a rebound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract falling by 0.89% and London aluminum rising by 1.38% to $2638 per ton [1] - The weighted contract position for Shanghai aluminum was 637,000 lots, a decrease of 55,000 lots week-on-week, while futures warehouse receipts increased to 67,000 tons [1] - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory rose by 26,000 tons to 492,000 tons, while bonded zone inventory decreased by 8,000 tons to 116,000 tons [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The operating rates of major domestic aluminum processing enterprises declined, with weaker production in aluminum rods and aluminum plates [1] - LME aluminum inventory increased by 31,000 tons to 431,000 tons, with a Cash/3M discount of $0.8 per ton [1] - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is low, but the downstream sector is in a weak season and exports are sluggish, which may lead to inventory accumulation [1] Group 3: Price Forecast and Market Sentiment - The Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to trade within the range of 20,400 - 21,000 CNY per ton, while London aluminum 3M is forecasted between $2,550 - $2,680 per ton [1] - The market sentiment is positive due to anticipated growth plans in key domestic industries and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 4: Lead Market Overview - The Shanghai lead index fell by 0.16% to 16,836 CNY per ton, with total open interest at 103,600 lots [1] - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 16,700 CNY per ton, with the price difference between refined and recycled lead remaining stable [1] - LME lead inventory stood at 271,000 tons, with 39,800 tons of canceled warehouse receipts [1] Group 5: Supply and Demand for Lead - Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 66,800 tons, with a small decrease in primary lead operating rates and a low rise in recycled lead operating rates [1] - Lead ingot supply is ample, leading to inventory accumulation, while lead-acid battery prices have stabilized as the peak season approaches [1] - Anti-dumping duties imposed by the Middle East on certain lead-acid battery companies may suppress consumption expectations [1]