Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On March 31, 2026, the A - share market and various futures markets showed different trends. The A - share market had a collective callback, and futures markets such as coke, coal, and others had their own price movements influenced by factors like supply - demand relationships, international policies, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Category A. Stock Index Futures - On March 31, A - share market indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.80% to 3891.86 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81% to 13478.06 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.70% to 3184.95 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2006.1 billion yuan, an increase of 78.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 31, closing at 4450.05, a decrease of 41.90 from the previous day [2]. B. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 31, the coke weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1737.4, a decrease of 54.0 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index also trended weakly, closing at 1203.2 yuan, a decrease of 72.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, daily production slightly increases, coke inventory slightly rises, and traders' purchasing willingness improves slightly. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, downstream molten iron slightly increases, and steel profit slightly improves. The coking coal futures price has a large premium over Mongolian coal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance data remains high. Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1230 vehicles. Coal mine production has returned to a high - level, weekly production slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are good this week, transaction prices mainly rise, terminal inventory significantly increases, and there is some restocking action. The total coking coal inventory slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly decreases [4]. C. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the failure of the futures price to break through and stabilize at the 16 - cent technical level, it was pressured by technical selling, and the US sugar oscillated and declined on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. Due to the large short - term decline, affected by the technical aspect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated and adjusted slightly higher at night. In the 2026/27 season starting in April, Brazil's sugar export volume may decrease by 14.2% as sugar mills tend to use more sugarcane to produce ethanol due to high energy prices. Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season will drop from 43.5 million tons in the previous season to 40.3 million tons [4]. D. Rubber - Affected by the decline of synthetic rubber, Shanghai rubber oscillated and declined on Tuesday. At night, supported by bargain - hunting buying, Shanghai rubber oscillated and rose. In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%. From January to February, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber were 297,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In total, Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first two months were 747,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [4]. E. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 31, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1172.25 cents per bushel, a gain of 1.17%. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to be 84.7 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres but lower than analysts' forecast of 85.549 million acres. Brazil's soybean exports in March are estimated to be 15.86 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast, and the short - term export rhythm is stable. Domestically, on March 31, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2915 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.75%. China has relaxed the weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybeans, and the customs clearance speed has accelerated. Brazilian soybeans will arrive in large quantities from April to May, and the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop falling and rise. It is recommended to focus on the weather in South American main production areas, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the rhythm of soybean arrivals, and customs clearance efficiency [6]. F. Live Pigs - On March 31, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9770 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The inventory of breeding sows remains at a high level, higher than the reasonable regulation target. Coupled with the improvement of production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs continues to increase, and the slaughter volume remains high. The capacity reduction is insufficient, and the supply side remains loose. The demand side has insufficient carrying capacity and cannot effectively support the live pig price. Although some slaughtering enterprises carry out frozen product segmentation and warehousing operations, and there is a small amount of secondary fattening, such demand is limited, and it is difficult to reverse the current market pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on the progress of breeding sow reduction, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [6]. G. Palm Oil - On March 31, affected by Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange once broke through the 10,000 - yuan mark. However, the subsequent upward momentum was insufficient, and the market oscillated and declined with a reduction in positions. By the afternoon close, the palm oil main contract P2605 K - line closed as a negative line with long upper and lower shadows. The highest price on the day was 10082, the lowest price was 9808, and the closing price was 9866, a decrease of 0.64% from the previous trading day. According to the independent inspection agency AmSpec in Malaysia, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 31 were 1,607,065 tons, a 56.7% increase from the 1,025,449 tons exported in the same period last month [6]. H. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main 2605 contract oscillated in a narrow range, closing at 95340 yuan per ton. The opening price was 96100 yuan per ton, the highest was 96240 yuan per ton, the lowest was 95150 yuan per ton, the trading volume was 96,900 lots, and the positions slightly declined. In the spot market, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was 95350 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day, with a premium of 120 - 160 yuan per ton. The price differences in East China, South China, and Central China were all within 50 yuan, and the market transactions were stable. Fundamentally, on the supply side, smelting has production cuts, and the scrap copper policy is liberalized; on the demand side, the "Golden March" peak season is gradually realized, and the power grid, new energy, and other fields support the demand. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is decreasing at a low level, and the global inventory is still tight. It is necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation and the progress of domestic inventory reduction [6]. I. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15510 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 15 lots compared with the previous trading day, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed and were cautious about price adjustments. The US Department of Agriculture will release the 2026 US cotton planting intention forecast on Tuesday. The current industry average forecast is 9.229 million acres, with a forecast range of 9 - 9.635 million acres. Last year's actual planting area was 9.283 million acres, the US Agricultural Outlook Forum predicted 9.4 million acres, and the US NCC predicted 8.99 million acres [6][7]. J. Iron Ore - On March 31, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.8% and a closing price of 808 yuan. The iron ore shipments in this period declined, the arrival volume continued to increase month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, steel mills maintained the resumption trend, and the molten iron output continued to rise. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [8]. K. Asphalt - On March 31, the asphalt 2606 main contract oscillated and declined, with a decline of 1.53% and a closing price of 4512 yuan. The refinery operating rate is at a low level, the supply is tight, the terminal demand starts slowly, the refinery shipments continue to decline month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8]. L. Logs - The log 2605 main contract opened at 826 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 820, a maximum of 829, and a closing price of 820.5, with a daily reduction of 360 lots. On March 31, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 790 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69%, hitting a one - month low. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and the support of the macro - expected market sentiment on the price [8][9]. M. Steel - On March 31, rb2605 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3294 yuan per ton. In March, as enterprises accelerated the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry both rebounded and entered the expansion range. Although the business activity index of the construction industry rose to 49.3% in March, it was still in the contraction range. The number of newly started projects this year decreased year - on - year, and the industry demand recovered slowly. From the perspective of the steel market fundamentals, the supply and demand have gradually recovered since March, but it still faces high inventory pressure. Merchants mainly continue to reduce inventory, and the short - term steel price may oscillate [9]. N. Alumina - On March 31, ao2605 closed at 2827 yuan per ton. Affected by the uncertainty of Guinea's ore policy and the increase in shipping costs due to the Middle East situation, the price of imported ore still has room to rise. Coupled with the increase in caustic soda prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost support of alumina continues to move up. In addition, some domestic production cuts and new production capacities have not yet been fully released, and the short - term supply pressure is not large. However, since there are many new production capacities to be put into operation at home and abroad in the medium and long term, the upward pressure on alumina is still large [9]. O. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 31, al2605 closed at 24875 yuan per ton. The downstream demand is picking up, and the inflection point of social inventory is approaching. In addition, the potential risk of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually be transmitted to the electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East. Coupled with the concerns about aluminum plant production cuts caused by the soaring natural gas prices in Europe, the global supply stability is facing challenges. It is worth noting that the extent of the production capacity damage of Bahrain Aluminum and UAE Aluminum due to the weekend incident remains to be evaluated, while Qatar Aluminum has clearly terminated the production capacity reduction plan, injecting a certain degree of stability into the market. Overall, there is still support at the bottom of electrolytic aluminum [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum oxide's fundamentals may be in a state of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Electrolytic aluminum's fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Cast aluminum alloy's fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 24,875.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the closing price of the aluminum oxide futures main contract was 2,827.00 yuan/ton, down 114.00 yuan [2] - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of SHFE aluminum was - 115.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of aluminum oxide was - 11.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan [2] - The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 258,839.00 lots, down 5089.00 lots; the open interest of the aluminum oxide main contract was 199,275.00 lots, down 3436.00 lots [2] - The LME aluminum canceled warrants were 148,050.00 tons, down 2200.00 tons; the total inventory of aluminum oxide was 475,344.00 tons, up 14029.00 tons [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation was 3,445.00 US dollars/ton, up 160.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 420,875.00 tons, down 2200.00 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in SHFE aluminum was - 53,216.00 lots, down 13662.00 lots; the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.22, down 0.31 [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 23,695.00 yuan/ton, up 65.00 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE were 33,582.00 tons, down 1625.00 tons [2] - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was 120.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the open interest of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 6,958.00 lots [2] - The SHFE inventory of SHFE aluminum was 454,571.00 tons, up 2527.00 tons; the SHFE inventory of cast aluminum alloy was 45,761.00 tons, down 7929.00 tons [2] - The SHFE warrants of SHFE aluminum were 408,197.00 tons, up 4639.00 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM A00 aluminum was 24,610.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan; the spot price of aluminum oxide from SMM was 2,770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 24,525.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,005.00 yuan/ton, down 65.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 265.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00 yuan [2] - The premium/discount of Shanghai Wumao aluminum was - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 47.21 US dollars/ton, down 14.02 US dollars [2] - The basis of aluminum oxide was - 57.00 yuan/ton, up 114.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region was 5,794.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of aluminum oxide nationwide was 82.10%, down 0.39 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of aluminum oxide was 801.10 tons, down 12.70 tons; the monthly capacity utilization rate of aluminum oxide was 83.00%, down 1.00 percentage point [2] - The monthly demand for aluminum oxide (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 tons, up 25.33 tons; the monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum oxide was 28.90 tons, up 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 0.00 yuan/ton, down 19150.00 yuan; China's monthly import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 136,323.65 tons, down 56401.89 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 18,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's monthly export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of aluminum oxide was 15.00 tons, down 4.00 tons; the monthly import volume of aluminum oxide was 18.10 tons, down 7.94 tons [2] - The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum was 37.40 tons, up 22.90 tons; the weekly social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 139.70 tons, up 2.60 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of primary aluminum was 201,617.04 tons, up 12525.43 tons; the monthly total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,512.85 tons, up 3.00 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of primary aluminum was 10,040.43 tons, down 3270.78 tons; the monthly operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.94%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of aluminum products was 613.60 tons, up 20.50 tons; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 42.96 tons, down 11.50 tons [2] - The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 tons, down 39.41 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.33 tons, down 1.09 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Applications - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 tons, unchanged; the monthly National Real Estate Climate Index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 182.50 tons, unchanged; the monthly automobile production was 341.20 vehicles, down 10.70 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will launch optimized measures for tax - free shopping for outbound travelers, introduce measures to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and promote the development of the automotive aftermarket [2] - From January to February 2026, the import of automobiles was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of automobiles was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% [2] - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special action to boost consumption, optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones, and promote the reform of automotive circulation and consumption [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged, but may take action if inflation expectations change [2] - New York Fed President Williams said that the current interest rate level is in a favorable position, and the Fed should not take action for the time being [2] - Fed Governor Milan called for interest rate cuts and believed that the Fed could cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 30, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, while caustic soda dropped by over 4%. The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation in the Middle East, with expectations of inflation rising and potential impacts on various commodity prices. Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [6][7][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on March 30, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, and lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, fuel oil, and pure benzene rose by over 4%. In terms of declines, caustic soda dropped by over 4%, and synthetic rubber and industrial silicon fell by over 2%. In the stock index futures market, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.33%, while the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.23%. In the bond futures market, all varieties rose. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:23 on March 30, funds flowed into the Shanghai gold 2606 and Shanghai silver 2606 contracts, and flowed out of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 2606 and CSI 2606 contracts [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and closed high, turning positive at the end. Tensions in the Middle East may push up oil prices and reignite inflation, with some Fed officials sending hawkish signals. Global copper smelting capacity is shrinking, and the utilization rate of recycled copper smelting capacity has declined. In March, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but there are maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and imports may increase. Copper demand has increased, but terminal consumption in the automotive and new - energy vehicle sectors has declined. In the long - term, the supply - tight situation supports copper prices [9][11] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed high, rising by over 4% during the day. In March, the start - up rate decreased, and in February, imports increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, upstream production gradually increased, but there is a high probability of domestic lithium mine复产, which is a potential negative factor. In April, the production of lithium batteries increased, but the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a trend of accumulation, and downstream demand growth may slow down. The rise in the futures price is mainly due to supply - side disruptions, and the overall domestic supply of lithium mines still needs to be monitored for the domestic复产 rhythm. The situation in the Middle East may affect the price of lithium carbonate [12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected. The market focuses on the situation in the Middle East. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the near - halt of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries. Although IEA has released strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The U.S. has relaxed some sanctions, and Iraq has reached an agreement to resume oil exports. However, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and the risk of an oil price spike still exists [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased, and the planned production in April decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, downstream construction rates mostly increased, and shipments increased, but they are still at a low level. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly. The market is worried about a shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries due to the situation in the Middle East. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [15][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. On March 28, the start - up rate of PP enterprises decreased, and the production ratio of standard products decreased. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. The supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 28, the plastic start - up rate remained at around 80%. As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. New production capacity has been put into operation in 2026, and the start - up rate has continued to decline recently. The supply - demand pattern of plastic has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of plastic will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [19] 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. The start - up rate of PVC increased, and the downstream average start - up rate also increased, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. Some overseas device loads have decreased, and export prices have increased. Social inventories have increased slightly, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. PVC has the expectation of anti - involution, and the upstream raw material supply is tight. It is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, falling during the day. Domestic mine production resumed smoothly, but the output of clean coal decreased. Downstream coking enterprises and steel mills increased their inventories, and coke production increased. High - end coking coal has no market at the asking price, and market acceptance of high prices is low. The impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal has weakened, and it is expected that the price will gradually return to the fundamental logic [22] 3.2.9 Urea - The urea spot market was stable on the weekend, and the trading activity was acceptable. Factories have pending orders and no pressure to reduce prices. Internationally, urea is in short supply, while in China, supply is relatively abundant. After the end of agricultural demand, the downstream mainly depends on compound fertilizer factories. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased, and the inventory of urea factories has decreased significantly. It is expected that urea will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and declined, with the main contract falling 0.35% and closing at 23,935 yuan/ton on Friday. Under the carbon neutrality policy, long - term production capacity is controlled, domestic real - estate demand is weak, but aluminum replacing copper may bring incremental demand. Middle - East events have disrupted aluminum supply, and the decline of non - ferrous metals has dragged down aluminum prices. The domestic fundamentals are entering the peak season, and later consumption changes should be monitored. Last week, LME inventory was 420,875 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 2,527 tons to 454,571 tons [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and declined. The main contract fell 0.35%, closing at 23,935 yuan/ton on Friday. The decline was due to factors such as long - term production capacity control under carbon neutrality, weak real - estate demand, potential demand from aluminum replacing copper, supply disruptions from Middle - East events, and the drag of non - ferrous metal price declines. The domestic market is entering the peak season, and attention should be paid to consumption changes. LME inventory was 420,875 tons, slightly down from the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 2,527 tons to 454,571 tons [3] 2. Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 2.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The China annual supply - demand balance sheet for aluminum shows that from 2018 - 2024, production, net imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance have all changed. For example, in 2018, production was 36.09 million tons, net imports were 70,300 tons, apparent consumption was 36.1503 million tons, actual consumption was 36.6263 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 476,000 tons. In 2024, production is expected to be 43.1227 million tons, net imports 1.9616 million tons, apparent consumption 45.025 million tons, actual consumption 44.875 million tons, and the supply - demand balance 150,000 tons [11] 3. Market Structure 3.1 Spot - Futures Price Difference - Not provided 3.2 Import Profit - Not provided

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - On March 27, 2026, A-share major indices opened low and closed high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.63% to 3913.72, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.13% to 13760.37, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.71% to 3295.88. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1864 billion yuan, a decrease of 93.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical situations [4][5]. 3. Summary by Product Categories Stock Index Futures - On March 27, the A-share market had a good performance, with major indices rising. The trading volume continued to shrink [1]. Coking Coal and Coke Futures - On March 27, the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1274.6 yuan, a decrease of 19.7 yuan. The coke weighted index adjusted and closed at 1785.8, a decrease of 17.2 [2][3]. - Factors affecting prices include steel exports, coking plant profit, inventory changes, policies, and geopolitical situations [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar Futures - On March 27, US sugar fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. Affected by rising crude oil prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2609 contract rose during the night session. Speculators reduced their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 90,286 lots to 126,149 lots as of March 24 [4]. Rubber Futures - On March 27 night session, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. As of March 27, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 137,630 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The 20 - number rubber inventory decreased by 2923 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4436 tons [4][5]. Palm Oil Futures - On the night of March 27, the Dalian Commodity Exchange palm oil futures opened higher but lacked upward momentum. The main contract P2605 closed with a negative K - line. Logistics and insurance cost increases due to tensions may affect Indonesia's palm oil exports [5]. Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, on March 27, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1159.5 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.98%. Brazil's high - yield situation suppresses prices. Domestically, on March 27, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2937 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.51%. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, supply is expected to be loose [5]. Live Pig Futures - On March 27, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9965 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.32%. The supply is currently loose, while the demand is insufficient to support prices effectively [5]. Shanghai Copper Futures - On March 27, the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated slightly and closed higher. The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals show a tight balance between supply and demand [5]. Cotton Futures - On March 27 night session, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15435 yuan per ton. Cotton inventory decreased, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed [7]. Iron Ore Futures - On March 27, the iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed down, a decrease of 0.49%. Shipments and arrivals increased, and the price was in a volatile trend in the short term [7]. Asphalt Futures - On March 27, the asphalt 2606 main contract fluctuated and rose, an increase of 1.05%. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may follow the oil price in the short term [7]. Log Futures - On March 27, the log 2605 main contract opened at 817.5, with the lowest at 811, the highest at 819.5, and closed at 817.5, with a reduction of 384 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [7][8]. Steel Futures - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased steel production costs, but the cost increase has not been effectively transmitted to the finished product end. The steel market is in a game of weak reality, strong cost, and inventory reduction [8]. Alumina Futures - The raw material cost of alumina is supported, the supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable and may increase. The market is in a game between short - term demand - positive sentiment and long - term supply - loose reality [8]. Shanghai Aluminum Futures - Some aluminum production capacity in the Middle East has been affected. The supply is expected to increase slightly, the demand is expected to pick up, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral, with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, domestic supply reaching its ceiling, weak downstream demand, and a continued slump in the real - estate market, as well as volatile short - term macro - sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 35,619 tons to 452,044 tons last week, remaining neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, also neutral. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2]. - In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and is bullish for aluminum prices. However, macro - sentiment is volatile, and attention should be paid to Middle East events [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamental situation of aluminum is neutral, with carbon neutrality limiting capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and changeable short - term macro - sentiment. The basis is bearish, inventory is neutral, the price trend is neutral, and the main positions are bullish. Long - term carbon neutrality is bullish for aluminum prices, and attention should be paid to macro - events [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish factors are the unoptimistic global economy, high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption, and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Daily Summary - Shanghai's spot price was 70,770 yesterday, down 375; today it is 70,870, down 400. Nanchu's spot price was 70,690, down 450. The SHFE inventory increased by 29,728 tons to 136,300 tons this week, and the LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74,750 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows that there was a supply shortage from 2018 - 2023, and a supply surplus is expected in 2024. In 2024, the production is 43.1227 million tons, the net import is 1.9616 million tons, the apparent consumption is 45.025 million tons, the actual consumption is 44.875 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is 0.15 million tons [24].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 26, 2026 - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09% to 3889.08, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.41% to 13606.44, and the Chi - Next Index declined 1.34% to 3272.49. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1957.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 235.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4477.53, down 59.93 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal closed at 1287.5 yuan, down 9.1. After the holiday, coal mines gradually resumed production, with supply at a high level in the same period of previous years, and prices were under some pressure. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and there was still pressure on port inventory. From January to February 2026, the total import of coking coal was 19.8268 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.21% [3][4]. - Coke: The weighted index of coke closed at 1792.6, down 18.6. Some coking enterprises initiated the first - round price increase for coke, with the price of wet - quenched coke rising by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, starting from 0:00 on March 25. Mainstream steel mills have not yet accepted it, and the first - round price increase is still in a game. The iron - making water output increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 69,500 tons per day. From January to February 2026, China's total coke exports were 1.4341 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.87% [2][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, the crude oil price fluctuated higher on Thursday. Supported by the strong crude oil price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated upward on Thursday. The night session of the contract had little fluctuation, with a narrow - range shock and a small increase. In April 2026, the domestic sugar sales quota was 2.3 million tons, 50,000 tons less than the same period last year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Due to factors such as a large short - term increase and the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and sorted out on Thursday, with a small increase. The night session had little fluctuation, with a narrow - range shock and a small increase. From January to February 2026, China's tire production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 177.526 million pieces, and the cumulative production of synthetic rubber was 1.542 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [4][5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 26, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1171 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.21%. As of the week ending March 19, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 668,900 tons, a 124% increase from the previous week and an 89% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly over, with export logistics facing challenges, but the overall supply is abundant. Brazil's soybean exports in March are expected to be 15.87 million tons [5]. - Domestic market: On March 26, the main soybean meal M2605 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51%. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture is actively solving the soybean export quarantine problem, and the market's concern about the supply of imported soybeans is gradually subsiding. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased last weekend, and the spot inventory of oil mills increased slightly. It is expected that the arrival volume of soybeans in China will increase significantly from April to May [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 26, the main live pig LH2605 contract closed at 9835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45%. Affected by the high inventory of sows capable of reproduction and the improvement of production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased. The overall shipment enthusiasm was high, and the shipment rhythm accelerated significantly. The demand side was in the seasonal off - season, with weak downstream white - strip sales, low slaughtering enterprise operating rates, and limited support for pig prices [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 26, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange continued to follow the crude oil price fluctuations, with the main contract P2605 closing with a positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 9640, the lowest was 9482, and the closing price was 9614, a 1.09% decrease from the previous trading day. From March 1 to 25, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.74% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.28% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract had a narrow - range shock and finally closed up 0.17% at 95,350 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 95,325 yuan/ton, with a discount of 25 yuan/ton compared to the main futures contract. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased significantly by 997,000 tons compared to March 19. The global shortage of copper ore raw materials is still expected, the smelting processing profit is limited, and the output increase is limited. The downstream demand of the domestic power grid and new - energy vehicles is steadily recovering [5]. 2.8 Logs - The main log 2605 contract opened at 816.5, with a minimum of 814, a maximum of 820, and a closing price of 817, with a decrease of 349 lots in positions. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day [6]. 2.9 Iron Ore - On March 26, the main iron ore 2605 contract closed up 0.18% at 817 yuan. The shipping and arrival volume of iron ore increased week - on - week, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the iron - making water demand of steel mills recovered. The short - term iron ore price was in a shock trend [6]. 2.10 Asphalt - On March 26, the main asphalt 2606 contract closed up 4.17% at 4543 yuan. The refinery production plan in April decreased to a low level in the same period in recent years, the downstream demand started slowly, and the refinery shipment volume decreased week - on - week. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [6]. 2.11 Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15,355 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 100 lots compared to the previous trading day, and downstream textile enterprises purchased on demand [6]. 2.12 Steel - On March 26, rb2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3305 yuan/ton. This week, the steel market may see an increase in both supply and demand, and the inventory is still in a downward channel. However, the overall trading volume of the steel market was average. The short - term steel price may fluctuate in a narrow range [6]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 26, ao2605 closed at 2931 yuan/ton. Some domestic alumina enterprises carried out maintenance and production reduction, and the new production capacity has not yet produced, which alleviated the phased supply pressure. However, the suppression brought by the new production capacity is still significant, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change. The downstream peak - season consumption expectation is lower than in previous years, and the market trading is dull [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 26, al2605 closed at 23,725 yuan/ton. The market is waiting and seeing the possibility of the US - Iran talks in the Middle East and evaluating the possibility of the situation intensifying again. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating smoothly, the aluminum - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still at a high level, the accumulation speed of the aluminum ingot social inventory has slowed down, and the aluminum rod shows inventory reduction. The demand side shows moderate receiving, and the downstream and terminal restocking willingness exists, which provides certain support for the spot [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with positive industry consumption expectations. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with a slight increase in industrial inventory and positive industry expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is also recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,725 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was -115 yuan, up 10 yuan; the main contract position was 259,986 lots, down 6,884 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was -36,054 lots, down 7,332 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.32, down 0.03; the Shanghai Aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 452,044 tons, up 35,619 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipt was 404,742 tons, down 69 tons [2] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,931 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was -47 yuan, down 2 yuan; the main contract position was 223,006 lots, up 2,224 lots [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,820 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 20 yuan, up 80 yuan; the main contract position was 1,833 lots, down 1,730 lots; the registered warehouse receipt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39,035 tons, down 1,390 tons; the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,690 tons, down 9,041 tons [2] - **LME Aluminum**: The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum was 3,242 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 426,750 tons, down 925 tons; the LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipt was 153,925 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium was 49.84 US dollars/ton, up 2.47 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 23,510 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 23,820 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium was -90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was -215 yuan, down 115 yuan [2] - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,755 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was -176 yuan, up 37 yuan [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,480 yuan, down 90 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The monthly output was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the monthly import volume was 18.10 million tons, down 7.94 million tons; the monthly export volume was 15.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the monthly demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the monthly supply - demand balance was 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons; the national monthly operating rate was 82.10%, down 0.39%; the total monthly capacity utilization rate was 83.00%, down 1.00% [2] - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 0 yuan/ton, down 18,500 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the monthly import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments in China was 136,323.65 tons, down 56,401.89 tons; the monthly export volume was 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly import volume of primary aluminum was 201,491.17 tons, up 12,566.45 tons; the monthly export volume was 10,039.89 tons, down 3,249.90 tons; the total monthly production capacity was 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged; the monthly operating rate was 98.93%, up 0.04%; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 130.10 million tons, up 0.20 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 43.00 million tons, down 11.00 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 182.50 million tons, unchanged; the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.33 million tons, down 1.09 million tons; the total monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 24.04%, up 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 31.84%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 18.57%, down 0.0064; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.75, down 0.1619 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The situation of the US - Iran negotiation is uncertain. Iran has rejected the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House spokesman said the negotiation is still ongoing and productive. The US House Speaker Johnson said the Iran war is "close to ending" [2] - Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations stated that non - belligerent country ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination. COSCO Shipping Lines has resumed new bookings for ordinary containers to some Middle - East countries [2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang had a phone call with Dutch Prime Minister Rutte, expressing China's willingness to strengthen cooperation with the Netherlands [2] - As of the end of February, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 33.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 0.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.8% [2] - The US - Israel military action against Iran did not meet expectations, and both sides' high - level officials shifted the blame. US President Trump blamed the Secretary of Defense and the Chief of Staff, and in Israel, the head of Mossad was accused of misleading the governments [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said the current Fed policy is dragging down the economy, and the Fed should gradually cut interest rates to a neutral level this year. The overall inflation forecast for this year was raised to 2.7% [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde said the ECB will take decisive action if the soaring energy costs lead to broader inflation, but is currently assessing the impact of the Middle - East situation [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 25, 2026, A - share major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.30% to 3931.84, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.95% to 13801.00, and the ChiNext Index up 2.01% to 3316.97. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 96.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index was strong, while the coke and coking coal weighted indices declined. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, and other futures were affected by factors such as news of the US - Iran conflict and oil price changes [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 25, the A - share major indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.01%. The trading volume of the three - market was 2.19 trillion yuan, up 96.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4537.47, up 62.74 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 25, the coke weighted index oscillated and closed at 1807.8, down 25.6. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range oscillation, closing at 1296.6 yuan, down 13.5. Coking profit was average with a slight increase in daily production. Coke inventory changed little, and the purchasing willingness of traders improved slightly. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1516 vehicles. Coal mine resumption was good, weekly production increased slightly, and the spot auction transaction price rose due to market concerns about energy [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the sharp drop in oil prices and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated lower on March 25. At night, it had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight increase. As of March 24, 12 sugar mills in Zhanjiang, Guangdong had completed squeezing, and 5 were still in production. It was expected that the latest - squeezing mill would stop in early April. As of late March, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was about 600,000 tons, and the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season was expected to be slightly less than the previous season's 650,000 tons [4]. Rubber - Due to the news that the US submitted a 15 - point plan to Iran to end the conflict, oil prices dropped sharply. The market's optimistic sentiment about the possible easing of the US - Iran conflict was reignited, and the Southeast Asian spot quotes oscillated higher. The Shanghai rubber oscillated upward on March 25. Affected by the large short - term increase, it oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. From January to February 2026, China's tire production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 1.77526 billion pieces, and the cumulative production of synthetic rubber increased by 8.5% year - on - year to 1.542 million tons [4]. Soybean and Bean Meal - As of March 21, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was 67.7%, behind last year's 76.4%. Brazil's soybean exports in March were expected to be 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast. On March 25, the bean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2932 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture was actively solving soybean export quarantine problems, and the market's concern about imported soybean supply was gradually subsiding. The bean meal inventory last week was 620,000 tons, up 30,000 tons week - on - week and down 170,000 tons month - on - month [6]. Pig - On March 25, the pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9980 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. Due to the high inventory of breeding sows and improved production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased. The scale pig enterprises' March sales plan increased month - on - month, and the sales rhythm accelerated. The demand was in the seasonal off - season, the downstream white - strip sales were weak, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was low. Although frozen product storage and secondary fattening provided some support, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [6]. Palm Oil - On March 25, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's palm oil futures followed the oil price fluctuations. After a sharp drop in the morning, it was weak. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji - like K - line. The highest price was 9676, the lowest was 9464, and the closing price was 9510, down 1.39% from the previous trading day. According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,414,990 tons, up 38.4% from the same period last month. According to AmSpec, the exports were 1,389,549 tons, up 51% [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract CU2605 closed at 95,590 yuan/ton, with an intraday range of 93,480 - 96,380 yuan/ton. The trading volume remained high. Driven by technical repair and downstream replenishment, the copper price rebounded from the short - term oversold situation. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, while the overseas inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, it was likely to maintain a range - bound pattern [6]. Cotton - On the night of March 25, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15,370 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. As of late March 2026, the total inventory of un - cleared foreign cotton in Qingdao, Nantong, and Zhangjiagang was about 470,900 tons, an increase of 38,700 tons from the end of February and about 200,000 tons since October last year [6]. Log - On March 25, the log 2605 main contract opened at 820, with a minimum of 807, a maximum of 823.5, and closed at 816, with a decrease of 1315 lots. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu were both 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [8]. Iron Ore - On March 25, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and fell by 1.83%, closing at 806.5 yuan. The iron ore shipment and arrival volume increased this period, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill's hot - metal demand increased. The short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8]. Asphalt - On March 25, the asphalt 2606 main contract oscillated and fell by 1.1%, closing at 4410 yuan. The raw material supply was unstable, the refinery's production plan in April decreased to a low level in recent years, the downstream demand started slowly, and the refinery's sales volume decreased month - on - month. The short - term asphalt price might follow the oil price [8]. Steel - On March 25, rb2605 closed at 3132 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3313 yuan/ton. The US proposed a 15 - item plan to end the conflict in Iran through Pakistan, but Iran's response was unclear. The domestic energy and chemical futures prices continued to fall, and the coking coal futures price also weakened. The domestic steel demand recovery was slow, the market transaction was average, and the cost support was unstable. The short - term steel price might have a weak and narrow - range adjustment [8]. Alumina - On March 25, ao2605 closed at 2963 yuan/ton. The Guinea Ministry of Mines planned to restrict bauxite exports in early April to stabilize prices, and the supply contraction expectation increased. Some domestic alumina enterprises carried out maintenance and production reduction, and the new production capacity had not been put into production, which relieved the short - term supply pressure. However, the long - term oversupply expectation remained, and the social inventory was still at a high level. The downstream procurement demand was average, and the consumption sentiment was low [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 25, al2605 closed at 23,860 yuan/ton. The market was evaluating the possible peace - talk plan between the US and Iran, but the US was also increasing the deployment of ground troops. The oil price continued to decline, and non - ferrous metals continued to rebound. Some aluminum plants in the Middle East had production cuts. The supply side was stable, the aluminum - water ratio increased slightly, and the social inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The demand side showed good receiving, and the downstream and terminal replenishment willingness supported the spot price [8].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures - On March 24, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78% to 3881.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 13536.56 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.50% to 3251.55 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2096.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 352.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on March 24, closing at 4474.72, a month-on-month increase of 56.73 [2] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On March 24, the coke weighted index adjusted and consolidated, closing at 1823.0, a month-on-month decrease of 13.2 [2] - On March 24, the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 1297.2 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 5.7 [3] - The spot price of coke at ports increased. The mainstream coke enterprises proposed to raise the coke price by 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The steel mills' profitability was fair, and the iron water output continued to increase, leading to an increase in the procurement enthusiasm for coke [4] - The price of coking coal in some areas increased. The production of main coal-producing areas remained stable, and the market trading activity increased. The terminal steel demand improved, and the coke enterprises proposed a price increase [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on March 24. The uncertainty of short - term crude oil price limited the decline space [4] - The Asia - Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center issued an El Niño warning, indicating that most parts of the world may enter a warming stage in the next few months [4] Group 4: Rubber - Due to the high price of crude oil, the price of synthetic rubber has risen significantly, which may prompt manufacturers to choose natural rubber as a substitute. The Shanghai rubber fluctuated higher on March 24. The expected slowdown of global economic growth may restrict rubber demand [5] - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons, an increase of 1.18% [5] Group 5: Soybean Meal - On March 24, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1154 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.9%. As of March 31, the soybean harvest in Brazil was 67.7% complete, behind last year's 76.4%. The market is concerned about the US Department of Agriculture's sowing intention report [5] - On March 24, the domestic soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.53%. After the relaxation of the inspection of imported Brazilian soybeans, the supply shortage of soybean meal is expected to ease [5] Group 6: Live Pigs - On March 24, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10045 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased, and the market supply pattern was loose. The demand was in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern was supply - strong and demand - weak [5] Group 7: Palm Oil - On March 24, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuated widely, and the main contract P2605 closed with a small negative line. The price decreased by 3.00% compared with the previous trading day [5] - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 20 was 889,128 tons, a 61.02% increase compared with the same period last month [5] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main CU2605 contract rebounded and fluctuated, closing at 94030 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25%. The spot price increased, but the discount pattern remained unchanged. The price was supported by factors such as low domestic inventory, but the downstream demand did not show obvious improvement [5] Group 9: Cotton - On the night of March 24, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15210 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 30 lots compared with the previous trading day. The "Golden March and Silver April" textile peak season this year exceeded market expectations [6] Group 10: Iron Ore - On March 24, the iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.55%, closing at 824 yuan. The shipping and arrival volume of iron ore increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price was in a fluctuating trend in the short term [6] Group 11: Asphalt - On March 24, the asphalt 2606 main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decline of 3.66%, closing at 4401 yuan. The raw material supply was unstable, the refinery production plan in April decreased, and the downstream demand started slowly. The asphalt price may follow the oil price in the short term [6] Group 12: Logs - On March 24, the log 2605 main contract opened at 820, with a minimum of 818, a maximum of 825, and closed at 823, with an increase of 224 lots in positions [6] - The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. Future attention should be paid to factors such as spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7] Group 13: Steel - On March 24, rb2605 closed at 3145 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3324 yuan/ton. The international oil price dropped, but the Middle East situation remained complex. The steel market supply and demand increased, and the cost support moved up. The steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [7] Group 14: Alumina - On March 24, ao2605 closed at 3014 yuan/ton. The Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, and the demand for industrial metals was under pressure. In the short term, the alumina price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation, but in the long term, the new production capacity will suppress the price [7] Group 15: Shanghai Aluminum - On March 24, al2605 closed at 23625 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum price was supported by multiple factors. The Middle East situation affected the aluminum price through price linkage, cost conduction, and market sentiment. The domestic aluminum price had a strong upward drive [8]