铝类产业日报 2025/8/27 | 环比 | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | | 20,810.00 +95.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 35.00 0.00 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 3,046.00 -2.00 | -23.00↓ +4.00↑ | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | | | 12,600.00 -650.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 103,364.00 | +14952.00↑ | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | | | 269,866.00 +18457.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 237,684.00 | +8959.00↑ | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 期货市场 | | 2,638.50 +16.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 478,075.00 | -650.00↓ | | ...

| 变量名称 2025-08-26 | 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-20 | 较昨日变动 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 听明走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 20715 | 20770 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 20535 | -55.00 | | 成交量(手) 103054 沪铝期货活跃合约 持仓量(手) 251 409 | 146160 248343 | 128168 228028 | -43,106.00 3.066.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 库存(吨) 56274 | 56670 | | -396. 00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铝基差 SMM A00电解铝平均价 20780 | | ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，8月27日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，沪镍涨1.11%，沪铝涨0.72%，沪锡涨 0.36%，沪锌涨0.22%，不锈钢涨0.04%，沪铜跌0.05%，沪铅跌0.15%，氧化铝跌1.73%。 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 8 月 26 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（8 月 25 日）A 股三大指数延续强势表现，沪指再创十年新高。截止收盘，沪指涨 1.51%， 收报 3883.56 点；深证成指涨 2.26%，收报 12441.07 点；创业板指涨 3%，收报 2762.99 点。沪深两市成交额史 上第二次突破三万亿，今日达到 31411 亿，较上一交易日大幅放量 5944 亿。 沪深 300 指数 8 月 25 日强势依旧。收盘 4469.22，环比上涨 91.22。 【焦炭 焦煤】8 月 25 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1732.1，环比上涨 69.6。 8 月 25 日，焦煤加权指数宽幅震荡，收盘价 1208.8 元，环比上涨 73.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：2025 年 1-7 月，全球粗钢产量为 10.862 亿吨，同比下降 1.9%。需求端，本期铁水产量 240.75 万吨， +0.09 万吨，铁水高位，煤矿端库存已经不存在压力，库存向下游转移，焦煤总库存总体呈现增加。利润方面， 本期全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，8月26日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，沪铜涨0.44%，不锈钢涨0.35%，沪铅 涨0.18%，沪锡涨0.07%，沪镍涨0.05%，沪铝持平，沪锌跌0.27%，氧化铝跌0.60%。 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 海外宏观回暖，铜价强势运行 核心观点 沪铜 上周五夜盘铜价增仓上行，今日铜维持强势运行，尾盘拉升，主 力期价接近 8 万关口。宏观层面，北京时间 22 日 22 时杰克逊霍尔会 议上美联储主席鲍威尔发言偏鸽，市场风险偏好明显回升，美元指 数下挫，利好铜价。产业端，国内临近旺季，电解铜社库呈现去 化，产业支撑增强。预计铜价维持强势运行，关注 8 万关口多空博 弈。 沪铝 上周五夜盘铝价呈现上行趋势，今日铝价维持震荡运行。宏观层 面，海外降息 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（8.18~8.22） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 上周回顾 沪铝周评： 沪铝上周震荡调整下跌，上周主力合约下跌0.67%，周五收盘报20630元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能， 国内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国加增钢铝关税。国内 基本面上，需求进入淡季，等待消费复苏。上周LME库存478725吨，较前周出现小幅减少，SHFE周库存 增3952吨至124605吨。 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - On August 22, the A-share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points and reaching a ten-year high. The CSI 300 index also closed strongly, rising by 89.93 points compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products are affected by different factors, including supply and demand, policies, and international market conditions. For example, the prices of coke and coking coal are influenced by production limits, inventory levels, and market sentiment; the price of sugar is affected by production forecasts in Brazil and India; the price of rubber is driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts; and the price of soybeans is supported by strong exports and good growth conditions [1][3][4]. - The market trends of different products vary, with some showing upward trends, some showing downward trends, and some remaining in a state of shock. For example, the prices of stock index futures, coke, and sugar showed upward trends; the price of coking coal showed a downward trend; and the prices of iron ore, asphalt, and logs showed a state of shock [1][2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On August 22, the A-share market continued its strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45% to close at 3825.76 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.07% to close at 12166.06 points; the ChiNext Index rose by 3.36% to close at 2682.55 points; and the STAR 50 Index rose by 8.59% to close at 1247.86 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2546.7 billion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On August 22, the weighted index of coke showed weak consolidation, with a closing price of 1677.0, a slight increase of 0.2 compared to the previous day. Due to the approaching of a major event, there are expectations of production limits in coking plants in the East China region. The seventh round of price increases for coke has improved coking profits, and the daily production of coking has increased slightly. The overall inventory of coke has continued to decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level during the off-season. Market sentiment towards coal over - production inspections has increased, driving up the price of coke. The coke futures price has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the expected "anti - involution" policy [1][3]. - Coking Coal: On August 22, the weighted index of coking coal showed weak fluctuations, with a closing price of 1156.4 yuan, a decrease of 0.9 compared to the previous day. The output of coking coal mines has increased, the flow - rate of spot auctions has slightly increased, the transaction price has decreased, and the terminal inventory has remained flat. The inventory at the production end has increased slightly, and it is necessary to observe whether the de - stocking continues [2][3]. Sugar - A survey of 10 traders and analysts shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 39.7 million tons, lower than the February forecast of 41.6 million tons and the previous season's 40.2 million tons. Analysts expect the sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season starting in October to be 32 million tons, higher than the 26.22 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Affected by this, the US sugar price stopped falling and rebounded slightly last Friday. Supported by the stabilization of the US sugar price and the role of funds, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher last Friday [3]. Rubber - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting raised expectations of interest rate cuts, driving up the price of Shanghai rubber in the night session last Friday. As of August 22, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,669 tons, a decrease of 519 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 178,470 tons, a decrease of 1460 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 48,183 tons, a decrease of 1007 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, a decrease of 1612 tons compared to the previous day [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on August 22, the CBOT soybean futures rose further to a two - month high. Strong weekly exports and the rebound of soybean oil prices boosted the price of US soybeans. The ProFarmer survey results in six out of seven states showed that the number of soybean pods was higher than the average of the past three years, supporting the expectation of good yields and production of US soybeans. The good growth condition of US soybeans has improved the harvest outlook, and the probability of weather speculation has decreased as the weather window narrows. In the domestic market, on August 22, the M2601 main contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume remains high, the downstream提货 speed has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation rhythm at the oil mill end has slowed down. China's soybean orders for the fourth quarter are basically all from South America. The market's concern about the tight supply of soybean meal in the later period supports the price - holding power of soybean meal. Future attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas and the situation of soybean imports [4][5]. Live Hogs - On August 22, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54%. On the supply side, in August, the production capacity is in the stage of concentrated realization, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the slaughter plan of group pig enterprises has increased compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. On the demand side, the national central pork reserve purchase plan has released a market - supporting signal, strongly boosting market confidence. Although the supply of pigs is sufficient, the demand in some areas has shown signs of recovery, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. With the approaching of the students' return to school and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day double - festival stocking period, the terminal consumption is expected to further improve. However, the actual consumption recovery strength is still restricted by factors such as residents' consumption willingness and the economic environment, and dynamic tracking is required. Live hogs may show a wide - range shock trend, and future attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live hogs and market demand [5]. Copper - At the macro level, the market will focus on the Fed's interest - rate stance from the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. If the Fed releases a hawkish signal, it may suppress the copper price. Fundamentally, as the "Golden September" peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the expected improvement in demand will support the price. However, the supply of copper mines has increased to some extent, and the supply of refined copper is also expected to increase slightly. The changes in the supply - demand situation still need to be monitored. In addition, although the global inventory level is low, significant changes in inventory will also affect the copper price [6]. Iron Ore - On August 22, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed down with a decline of 0.71% and a closing price of 770 yuan. Last week, the global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore both increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the molten iron production continued to rise and remained at a high level. However, with the tightening of environmental protection policies in the north before the September military parade, there is an expectation of a reduction in molten iron production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a shock trend [6]. Asphalt - On August 22, the asphalt 2510 main contract closed up with a rise of 0.81% and a closing price of 3483 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased compared to the previous week. The terminal demand was limited by rainfall and funds, and there was no significant improvement in demand. The fundamentals lack an obvious one - sided driving force, and the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,155 yuan/ton. As of August 25, the minimum basis quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1070 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 137 bales compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On August 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 804, with a minimum of 797.5, a maximum of 807.5, and closed at 801, with a daily reduction of 1007 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 815. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The increase in the external market quotation has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [7]. Steel - Currently, the focus is shifting from downstream finished products to upstream raw materials. On the one hand, the reduction in blast furnace production is not significant, the molten iron production is still increasing, the actual demand for raw materials has increased, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, and the seventh round of coke price increases has been implemented. On the other hand, various information about coking coal has emerged, reviving the bulls, and there is a sign that the correction is over. However, it should be noted that the inventory pressure of finished products is still increasing, which will intensify the contradiction between raw materials and finished products, and this situation will continue. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of finished products in the next two weeks [9]. Alumina - From the perspective of raw materials, due to the uncertainty of disturbances in the Guinea mining area and the concentrated shipments before the rainy season in Guinea, the arrival and import of domestic bauxite have increased, and the supply of domestic bauxite is relatively sufficient. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic alumina has increased slightly, the operating rate remains high, and the opening of the import window has led to an increase in imports, resulting in an increase in the domestic alumina supply. In terms of demand, the demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum plants remains high. In the southwest region, the abundant water period from July to August has prompted electrolytic aluminum plants to resume production intensively, and the demand for alumina has also increased. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a situation of both supply and demand growth [9]. Aluminum - The price of alumina, the raw material, has slightly decreased, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum remains good, which has encouraged smelters to be more active in production. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry limit, and the domestic output has only increased slightly due to the commissioning of some replacement production capacities. In terms of demand, the spot price of aluminum remains relatively strong, and the off - season has suppressed the downstream consumption sentiment. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the consumption demand is expected to improve. In terms of inventory, affected by the off - season, the social inventory has slightly accumulated and is at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected to recover [10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 22 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 镍弱势运行 核心观点 沪铜 本周沪铜偏弱运行，持仓量变化不大，振幅下降。盘面上看，本 周国内商品氛围冷却，有色板块承压运行。宏观层面，市场持续关 注杰克逊霍尔会议动向，北京时间 22 日 22 时美联储主席鲍威尔将发 言，这是美联储 9 月议息会议前的重要讲话，若鲍威尔表现偏鸽，则 利好铜价。 沪铝 本周沪铝探底回升，持仓量呈现减仓下行增仓上行。盘面上看， 本周国内商品氛围冷却，有色板块承压运行，铝价强于板块。产业层 面，周四电解铝社库小幅去化，下游铝棒库存持续缓慢去化。宏观氛 围冷却， ...

8月22日盘中，沪铝期货主力合约呈现震荡走势，最高上探至20730.00元。截止发稿，沪铝主力合约报 20645.00元，涨幅0.22% 沪铝期货主力小幅上涨0.22%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 东吴期货 短期铝价预计维持震荡运行 中金财富期货 铝价大概率维持区间震荡格局 东海期货 铝价中期上涨空间有限，短期震荡 东吴期货：短期铝价预计维持震荡运行 供应维持高位，下游初端开工明显回升，各板块订单均有不同程度的回暖，随着旺季的临近，消费持续 改善，企业旺季节前备货意愿较为积极，周四铝锭库存转为去库，短期铝价预计维持震荡运行。 中金财富期货：铝价大概率维持区间震荡格局 美国特朗普政府宣布自8月18日起，对包括数百种铝衍生产品在内的进口商品加征50%的关税，预计会 进一步抑制我国的铝制品出口，尤其是对美出口，给铝价带来短期压力。现货市场维持贴水状态，下游 企业多以刚需采购为主，高铝价对补库意愿有一定的抑制作用。多空因素交织，铝价大概率维持区间震 荡格局，关注"金九银十"传统旺季需求的实际兑现情况。 东海期货：铝价中期上涨空间有限，短期震荡 铝库存下降1.1万吨，下降幅度较大，国内社库累 ...