研究报告 铝周报 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 美联储 10 月降息概率高，沪铝或震荡偏强运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 摘要： 【基本面分析】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 13 日星期一 美联储公布了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）9 月份会议纪要。 纪要显示，9 月份美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点 的决策获得委员会绝大多数成员的支持。唯一的反对票来自新任 美联储理事米兰，其主张更大幅度降息 50 个基点，理由是美国就 业市场进一步趋软，且核心通胀已显著接近 2%目标。CME 美联储 预测工具显示，市场对 10 月降息的预期仍非常坚定，10 月降息 概率接近 95%。铝土矿进口量持续处于高位，氧化铝在产产能继 续上升，氧化铝库存仍然处于低位。电解铝在产产能维持高位， 电解铝开工率持续攀升。铝材产量同比、环比均有所下降，铝合 金产量依然处于高位。沪铝库存小幅上升，库存水平处于近年来 低位。 【后市展望】 铝价 ...

目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（10.9~10.10） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周震荡运行，上周主力合约上涨1.25%，周五收盘报20980元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国加增钢铝关税，消费有 所影响。国内基本面上，需求进入旺季，等待消费复苏。上周LME库存508825吨，较前周出现小幅增加， SHFE周库存增1180吨至124777吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | -- ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，10月11日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘全线下跌。沪铜跌4.46%，沪锡跌2.63%，氧化 铝跌2.47%，沪镍跌1.98%，沪铝跌1.59%，不锈钢跌1.48%，沪锌跌1.23%，沪铅跌0.09%。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and consumption trends, with short - term price pressure at $11,000 per ton and a need for consolidation [2][4][5]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating bottom - grinding pattern before large - scale production cuts [9][12]. - The aluminum market shows some resilience, with domestic prices mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations, and short - term seasonal inventory accumulation having a relatively low impact on prices [15][17][19]. - The casting aluminum alloy market's ADC12 spot price is expected to be supported by cost, and prices are expected to be positive after a pull - back [23][24][25]. - The zinc market is supported by overseas inventory reduction, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [29][30][31]. - The lead market has a tight balance in lead concentrate supply, and prices may rise and then fall due to supply increases and lackluster consumption growth [34][36][37]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate widely within the range formed by oversupply and cost support [40][42][43]. - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [47][49][50]. - The tin market is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and future trends depend on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [53][58][59]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate within a range, with a possible slight oversupply in November [61][65][66]. - The polysilicon market has a complex situation, with supply - demand factors and warehouse receipt cancellation affecting prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating [67][69][70]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to fluctuate widely, with limited upward and downward drivers in the near term [73][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous settlement price, and the spot premium stabilized. The LME copper price premium was $315 [2]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and Zambia is expected to set a new record for copper production [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply disruptions from mines increase, and consumption shows a "peak season without peak" situation [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may need to consolidate at the $11,000/ton resistance level. Consider long positions on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [5][6][7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell by 15 yuan to 2,856 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, supply was in excess, and the industry's average profit decreased [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increase leads to an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level before large - scale production cuts [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak and oscillating. Keep options and spreads on hold [13][14]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract fell by 25 yuan to 20,980 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and Fed officials' differences in interest rate cuts affected the market. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased slightly [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The London aluminum price is under pressure at the upper edge of the wide - range oscillation range. Domestic prices are mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 20 yuan to 20,465 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [23]. - **Important Information**: After the National Day holiday, many enterprises increased inventory, and the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to support the ADC12 spot price [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [25][26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 rose 0.32% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shanghai increased due to supply shortages [29]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, and the Kipushi concentrator set a new production record [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas inventory reduction supports prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices are supported by the external market. Consider short positions on rallies. Keep options and spreads on hold [32]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 rose 0.59% to 17,140 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased, but downstream buying willingness declined [34]. - **Important Information**: Some lead smelters in Anhui resumed production or were about to resume production [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is in a tight balance, and the production of secondary lead may increase, while consumption in the peak season is not as expected [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices may rise and then fall. Keep options and spreads on hold [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell by 940 to 122,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [40]. - **Important Information**: Indonesian nickel - mining policies and export controls on some products affected the market [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME inventory increased, and the impact of export controls was small. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [42][43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [43][44][45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2511 fell by 20 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Overseas policies are expected to boost exports, and the WTO ruled that the EU's anti - dumping measures against Indonesian stainless steel products were illegal [48][49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [49][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep spreads on hold [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 rose by 1,280 to 286,350 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. The market expected a short - term weak situation to continue [53]. - **Important Information**: The US may release CPI data, and Indonesia adjusted the tin procurement price and strengthened industry governance [54][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrate is still tight, and demand is sluggish. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation. Keep options on hold and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.46% to 8,685 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [61][62]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand may lead to a slight oversupply in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range of (8,200, 9,300) for the near - month contract. Keep options and spreads on hold [66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fell 2.43% to 48,965 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [67]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand factors are bearish on prices in October, and warehouse receipt cancellation will be the main logic in November. The market is in a state of high - level game [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating. Hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [69][70][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell by 960 to 72,740 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged [73]. - **Important Information**: Zangge Mining obtained mining rights, and export controls on some products were implemented [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory decreased during the holiday, and the impact of export controls was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [79].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，10月10日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘全线上涨。沪铜涨0.86%，沪锡涨0.82%，沪锌 涨0.61%，沪铝涨0.45%，沪铅涨0.44%，沪镍涨0.41%，不锈钢涨0.35%，氧化铝涨0.31%。 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 21,090.00 15.00 | +410.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,875.00 -36.00 | +7.00↑ +7.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 203,279.00 | +12748.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 294,498.00 | +9203.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 107,625.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 188,223.00 | +9023.00↑ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,750.50 | +8.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 506,400.00 | +1075.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | ...

板块资金流向 (%) 30 - 25 _ 20 – 15 l 10 – 5 - 0 - -5 - the 17 the the All y 1 the WND WND 板块成交额变化 (%) 30 - 20 – 10 – 0 -10 – -20 – -30 - -40 - 11 1 ten 1 3 4 1/2 4 3 2 1 0 沪 猛 铁 硅 焦 热 焦 螺 不 玻 P 原 燃 动 L 铅 硅 贮 铁 煤 轧 炭 纹 锈 璃 V 油 油 力 P 铝 碳 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 金 银 铝 镍 锌 锡 铜 開用 100 50 0 -50 -100 分 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 版本 如果 xa | 娱乐场 您现 E P G 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - 0 相 解软 1/2 カカ堂 足 粗 铝 铝 锌 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 铝 ...

【焦炭 焦煤】9 月 30 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1642.3，环比下跌 42.2。 9 月 30 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1137.7 元，环比下跌 45.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：部分钢厂接受焦企首轮提涨 50-55 元/吨。宏观， 受空气质量影响，9 月 29 日起至 10 月 20 日，唐 山调坯型钢厂实施生产调控。需求端，本期铁水产量 242.36 万吨，+1.34 万吨，铁水高位震荡，焦炭库存较同 期偏高。利润方面，本期全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦亏损 34 元/吨。 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 10 月 9 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（9 月 30 日）A 股三大指数集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.52%，收报 3882.78 点；深 证成指涨 0.35%，收报 13526.51 点；创业板指涨 0.00%，收报 3238.16 点；科创 50 指数涨 1.69%，收报 1495.29 点。沪深两市成交额达到 21814 亿，较上一交易日放量 200 亿。 沪深 300 指数 9 月 30 日强势依旧。收盘 4 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 30 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜价维持强势运行 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜沪铜增仓上行，主力期价突破今年 3 月高点，日内震荡调 整。自 9 月 24 日自由港发布铜矿减产公告后，铜价增仓上行明显， 资金关注度快速上升，上行动能强。国内即将进入国庆中秋小长 假，注意海外波动风险。 沪铝 今日沪铝震荡下行，持仓量持续下降。上周受铜价大涨影响，铝 价企稳回升，但整体反弹乏力。国内小长假前，电解铝有去库迹象， 给予铝价支撑。宏观宽松，产业旺季供需平衡边际好转。节前资金流 出较为明显，关注节后产业需求状况。 沪镍 今日沪镍震荡下行， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of stable supply and slight increase in demand, with a suggestion of light - position oscillatory trading [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and boosted demand, and the option market sentiment is bullish, also suggesting light - position oscillatory trading [2] - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slowing supply and increasing demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is recommended [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,868 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2] - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,670.50 US dollars/ton, up 21.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 515,600 tons, up 10,424 tons [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,210 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was - 110 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,890 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 690 yuan, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - Alumina production was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons [2] - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and fragments was 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export quantity was 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2] Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 11.99 million tons, down 30.30 million tons; the primary aluminum import quantity was 217,260.71 tons, down 30,322.61 tons [2] - The primary aluminum export quantity was 25,604.34 tons, down 15,383.37 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 53.70 million tons, down 3.00 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The aluminum product production was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 53.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy was 2.91 million tons, up 0.42 million tons [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 6.17%, down 0.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.08%, up 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money IV increased slightly, and the put - call ratio was 1.11, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0630 [2] Industry News - New York Fed President Williams supported rate cuts due to labor market weakness; St. Louis Fed President Mousalem was open to future rate cuts but cautious; Cleveland Fed President Harker advocated maintaining a tight monetary policy [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan to boost investment [2] - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd, focusing on the 15th Five - Year Plan [2] - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association opposes unfair competition in the industry [2]