"特朗普交易"突然崩了。 近期，"特朗普交易"遭遇重创，自美国总统特朗普就职以来，特朗普媒体与科技集团（DJT） 股价累计跌幅已达75%；以特朗普和"第一夫人"梅拉尼娅命名的"模因币"累计跌幅分别高达 86%、99%。另外，加密货币市场的剧烈动荡也波及了特朗普商业版图。有分析指出，市场 投机情绪普遍降温，投资者正从政治概念炒作转向关注企业实际业绩和基本面风险。 目前，美股市场关注的焦点正转向下周即将公布的美联储首选通胀指标——美国9月个人消费 支出价格指数（PCE）。高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，美联储12月降息已成定局，基于劳 动力市场疲软趋势和风险管理需求，此时降息是正确政策选择 。 01 全线暴 跌 曾被市场热捧的"特朗普交易"正遭遇重创。美东时间11月29日，《华尔街日报》报道，自特 朗普就职以来，运营其社交平台"Truth Social"的特朗普媒体与科技集团股价已累计暴跌 75%。 以特朗普和"第一夫人"梅拉尼娅命名的"模因币"累计跌幅分别高达86%、99%。 另外，特朗普家族涉足的另一个加密货币项目，一个名为"World Liberty Financial"的代 币，自9月推出以来也下跌了约40% ...

"特朗普交易"突然崩了。 近期，"特朗普交易"遭遇重创，自美国总统特朗普就职以来，特朗普媒体与科技集团（DJT）股价累计跌幅已 达75%；以特朗普和"第一夫人"梅拉尼娅命名的"模因币"累计跌幅分别高达86%、99%。另外，加密货币市场 的剧烈动荡也波及了特朗普商业版图。有分析指出，市场投机情绪普遍降温，投资者正从政治概念炒作转向关 注企业实际业绩和基本面风险。 目前，美股市场关注的焦点正转向下周即将公布的美联储首选通胀指标——美国9月个人消费支出价格指数 （PCE）。高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，美联储12月降息已成定局，基于劳动力市场疲软趋势和风险管理需 求，此时降息是正确政策选择。 全线暴跌 曾被市场热捧的"特朗普交易"正遭遇重创。美东时间11月29日，《华尔街日报》报道，自特朗普就职以来，运 营其社交平台"Truth Social"的特朗普媒体与科技集团股价已累计暴跌75%。 以特朗普和"第一夫人"梅拉尼娅命 名的"模因币"累计跌幅分别高达86%、99%。 另外，特朗普家族涉足的另一个加密货币项目，一个名为"World Liberty Financial"的代币，自9月推出以来也 下跌了约40%。 比特币 ...

Core Insights - The investment landscape is evolving with a focus on diversified asset allocation, particularly in the context of the upcoming "post-4000 point era" in A-shares, where investors are keen on identifying opportunities and risks in AI technology and other sectors [1] Fragment 1: New World Outline - The three main themes for 2023 are global cycle misalignment, AI technology revolution, and global capital reallocation, while 2024 will focus on the "exceptionalism" of the U.S. and weak domestic prices [2] - By 2025, the themes will shift to global order reconstruction, asset revaluation in China, deepening AI chains, and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2][3] - The market is experiencing a reconfiguration due to geopolitical shifts and the AI investment boom, which is expected to drive performance in sectors like optical modules [2] Fragment 2: AI Bubble Debate - The existence of a bubble in AI investments is complex; some level of speculation can drive technological advancement [6][8] - Key risks include the inability to convert capital expenditure into profit, excessive leverage, and tightening monetary policy [8] - Investors should focus on sectors directly benefiting from AI advancements and maintain a diversified approach to mitigate risks [8] Fragment 3: Macro Environment for 2026 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of China's "15th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for a balanced supply-demand dynamic and a focus on technology and industry [9] - The U.S. midterm elections may influence domestic policies, with a potential focus on growth and price stability [11] Fragment 4: Global Manufacturing Cycle - A potential upturn in the global manufacturing cycle is anticipated in 2026, following disruptions caused by tariffs [15] - The supportive environment for this cycle includes fiscal expansion and monetary policy coordination among major economies [15] Fragment 5: Capital Reallocation - The trend of "capital relocation" is significant, with a notable decrease in the ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization, indicating ongoing reallocation needs [18] - The current environment favors stable investment products like "fixed income+" and FOFs, which are gaining traction among cautious investors [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that gold prices have surged past $3,500 per ounce, reaching a new high, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Multiple institutions predict a new upward trend for precious metals after a four-month period of stagnation, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have recently surpassed $3,500 per ounce, marking a new record high [1]. - There is a forecast for precious metals to enter a new upward trend after four months of sideways movement [1]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end target price for gold to $3,800 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key upcoming events to monitor include the release of the U.S. ADP employment numbers on September 4, the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls on September 5, and the CPI year-on-year and month-on-month figures on September 11 [1]. - The "rate cut trade" by the Federal Reserve is expected to provide strong momentum for rising gold prices [1]. - It is anticipated that changes in U.S. monetary policy will support gold prices in the second half of the year, presenting potential allocation opportunities [1].

【上周铝铅期货市场行情及后市展望】上周铝价下探回升，沪铝主力合约周跌0.89%，伦铝收涨1.38% 至2638美元/吨。沪铝加权合约持仓量63.7万手，周环比减少5.5万手，期货仓单增至6.7万吨。 国内铝锭 库存环比增加2.6万吨，达49.2万吨；保税区库存环比减0.8万吨至11.6万吨；铝棒社会库存周环比减0.4 万吨，至15.6万吨，加工费低位运行。周五华东现货升水期货110元/吨，周环比上调180元/吨，铝价回 落改善消费情绪。 需求上，国内主要铝材企业开工率下滑，铝棒、铝板带等开工均走弱。外盘LME铝 库存周环比增3.1万吨至43.1万吨，Cash/3M贴水0.8美元/吨。 后市国内将发重点行业稳增长方案，商品 氛围偏暖，海外有美联储降息交易，情绪积极。国内铝锭库存低，但下游淡季、出口弱，库存或累积， 铝价或冲高但跟随为主。本周沪铝主力合约参考区间20400 - 21000元/吨，伦铝3M参考区间2550 - 2680 美元/吨。 周五沪铅指数收跌0.16%至16836元/吨，单边交易总持仓10.36万手。伦铅3S涨3至1977美元/ 吨，总持仓13.66万手。SMM1#铅锭均价16700元/吨，再 ...