"特朗普交易"突然崩了。 近期，"特朗普交易"遭遇重创，自美国总统特朗普就职以来，特朗普媒体与科技集团（DJT） 股价累计跌幅已达75%；以特朗普和"第一夫人"梅拉尼娅命名的"模因币"累计跌幅分别高达 86%、99%。另外，加密货币市场的剧烈动荡也波及了特朗普商业版图。有分析指出，市场 投机情绪普遍降温，投资者正从政治概念炒作转向关注企业实际业绩和基本面风险。 目前，美股市场关注的焦点正转向下周即将公布的美联储首选通胀指标——美国9月个人消费 支出价格指数（PCE）。高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，美联储12月降息已成定局，基于劳 动力市场疲软趋势和风险管理需求，此时降息是正确政策选择 。 01 全线暴 跌 曾被市场热捧的"特朗普交易"正遭遇重创。美东时间11月29日，《华尔街日报》报道，自特 朗普就职以来，运营其社交平台"Truth Social"的特朗普媒体与科技集团股价已累计暴跌 75%。 以特朗普和"第一夫人"梅拉尼娅命名的"模因币"累计跌幅分别高达86%、99%。 另外，特朗普家族涉足的另一个加密货币项目，一个名为"World Liberty Financial"的代 币，自9月推出以来也下跌了约40% ...

Group 1 - The "Trump trade" has faced significant setbacks, with the Trump Media & Technology Group's stock price dropping 75% since Trump's inauguration, and meme coins named after Trump and Melania experiencing declines of 86% and 99% respectively [1][2] - The cryptocurrency market has been volatile, impacting Trump's business ventures, including a token called "World Liberty Financial," which has fallen approximately 40% since its launch in September [2] - Investor sentiment has shifted from political speculation to focusing on actual corporate performance and fundamental risks, leading to a decline in previously optimistic expectations regarding Trump's policies [2][3] Group 2 - The stock of Trump Media & Technology Group has a staggering price-to-sales ratio of 1240 times, indicating extreme valuation concerns amid a broader market cooling [3] - A basket of unprofitable tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs has seen a 21% decline from mid-October to November 21, reflecting a broader market correction that has caught many retail investors off guard [4] - Despite the downturn in the "Trump trade," certain sectors like healthcare and European defense stocks have performed well, while U.S. regional banks lag behind due to economic growth concerns [5] Group 3 - Investors are now focusing on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, which could stabilize market sentiment [6][7] - Market pricing indicates an over 86% probability of a rate cut in December, reflecting a consensus that such a move is necessary given the softening labor market [6][7] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the U.S. inflation rate will remain manageable, with potential economic growth supported by fiscal policies, although short-term labor data may present risks [8]

Core Insights - The investment landscape is evolving with a focus on diversified asset allocation, particularly in the context of the upcoming "post-4000 point era" in A-shares, where investors are keen on identifying opportunities and risks in AI technology and other sectors [1] Fragment 1: New World Outline - The three main themes for 2023 are global cycle misalignment, AI technology revolution, and global capital reallocation, while 2024 will focus on the "exceptionalism" of the U.S. and weak domestic prices [2] - By 2025, the themes will shift to global order reconstruction, asset revaluation in China, deepening AI chains, and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2][3] - The market is experiencing a reconfiguration due to geopolitical shifts and the AI investment boom, which is expected to drive performance in sectors like optical modules [2] Fragment 2: AI Bubble Debate - The existence of a bubble in AI investments is complex; some level of speculation can drive technological advancement [6][8] - Key risks include the inability to convert capital expenditure into profit, excessive leverage, and tightening monetary policy [8] - Investors should focus on sectors directly benefiting from AI advancements and maintain a diversified approach to mitigate risks [8] Fragment 3: Macro Environment for 2026 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of China's "15th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for a balanced supply-demand dynamic and a focus on technology and industry [9] - The U.S. midterm elections may influence domestic policies, with a potential focus on growth and price stability [11] Fragment 4: Global Manufacturing Cycle - A potential upturn in the global manufacturing cycle is anticipated in 2026, following disruptions caused by tariffs [15] - The supportive environment for this cycle includes fiscal expansion and monetary policy coordination among major economies [15] Fragment 5: Capital Reallocation - The trend of "capital relocation" is significant, with a notable decrease in the ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization, indicating ongoing reallocation needs [18] - The current environment favors stable investment products like "fixed income+" and FOFs, which are gaining traction among cautious investors [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that gold prices have surged past $3,500 per ounce, reaching a new high, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Multiple institutions predict a new upward trend for precious metals after a four-month period of stagnation, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have recently surpassed $3,500 per ounce, marking a new record high [1]. - There is a forecast for precious metals to enter a new upward trend after four months of sideways movement [1]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end target price for gold to $3,800 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key upcoming events to monitor include the release of the U.S. ADP employment numbers on September 4, the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls on September 5, and the CPI year-on-year and month-on-month figures on September 11 [1]. - The "rate cut trade" by the Federal Reserve is expected to provide strong momentum for rising gold prices [1]. - It is anticipated that changes in U.S. monetary policy will support gold prices in the second half of the year, presenting potential allocation opportunities [1].

Group 1: Aluminum Market Overview - Last week, aluminum prices experienced a dip and then a rebound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract falling by 0.89% and London aluminum rising by 1.38% to $2638 per ton [1] - The weighted contract position for Shanghai aluminum was 637,000 lots, a decrease of 55,000 lots week-on-week, while futures warehouse receipts increased to 67,000 tons [1] - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory rose by 26,000 tons to 492,000 tons, while bonded zone inventory decreased by 8,000 tons to 116,000 tons [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The operating rates of major domestic aluminum processing enterprises declined, with weaker production in aluminum rods and aluminum plates [1] - LME aluminum inventory increased by 31,000 tons to 431,000 tons, with a Cash/3M discount of $0.8 per ton [1] - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is low, but the downstream sector is in a weak season and exports are sluggish, which may lead to inventory accumulation [1] Group 3: Price Forecast and Market Sentiment - The Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to trade within the range of 20,400 - 21,000 CNY per ton, while London aluminum 3M is forecasted between $2,550 - $2,680 per ton [1] - The market sentiment is positive due to anticipated growth plans in key domestic industries and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 4: Lead Market Overview - The Shanghai lead index fell by 0.16% to 16,836 CNY per ton, with total open interest at 103,600 lots [1] - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 16,700 CNY per ton, with the price difference between refined and recycled lead remaining stable [1] - LME lead inventory stood at 271,000 tons, with 39,800 tons of canceled warehouse receipts [1] Group 5: Supply and Demand for Lead - Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 66,800 tons, with a small decrease in primary lead operating rates and a low rise in recycled lead operating rates [1] - Lead ingot supply is ample, leading to inventory accumulation, while lead-acid battery prices have stabilized as the peak season approaches [1] - Anti-dumping duties imposed by the Middle East on certain lead-acid battery companies may suppress consumption expectations [1]