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美国居民消费与贸易摩擦前景
Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The growth of US personal consumption expenditure has slowed down. In April, the month - on - month growth of US personal consumption expenditure was 0.2%, and the nominal year - on - year growth was 5.4%. The personal savings rate rose to 4.9%. The growth of commodity retail was relatively flat, and the improvement of the year - on - year growth of the Redbook same - store retail index in May was not obvious. If the Trump administration wins the appeal on the tariff issue, its trade policy stance may become stronger [2]. - The producer price index continues to decline. From May 26th to May 31st, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork by the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 0.30% month - on - month and 6.16% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 0.42% month - on - month and decreased by 5.77% year - on - year. The production material price index decreased by 0.60% month - on - month and 10.46% year - on - year in the week of May 23rd [2]. - From May 1st to May 28th, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 245,000 square meters, slightly lower than the 248,000 square meters in the same period in 2024 [2]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The growth of US personal consumption expenditure has slowed down, and the producer price index continues to decline. There are also data on various high - frequency indicators such as food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping, including their month - on - month and year - on - year changes [2][16][17]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - There are comparisons between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, the producer price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [20]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - There are data on US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, initial jobless claims and unemployment rates, same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year, as well as the Chicago Fed financial conditions index, and the implied prospects of the US federal funds futures for interest rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest rate hikes/cuts [80][82][84]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - It shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data for various indicators such as the average daily production of crude steel (decadal), producer price index, China's commodity price index, steel price index, 30 large and medium - sized cities' commercial housing trading area, LME copper spot settlement price, Brent crude oil futures settlement price, etc. [91][95][101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - It presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [144][146][148].