据路透社报道，特朗普近期公开呼吁中国增加美国大豆进口，称此举 "对双方都有利"，未获中方回应。 中国随即对美国大豆加征 25% 关税。这一反制措施直接抬高了美国大豆进入中国市场的成本，削弱其价格竞争力。美国大豆对华出口量应声 下滑。贸易战后首年，中国从美国进口大豆降至 1664 万吨，同比降幅超 50%。同期，从巴西进口大豆增至 7400 万吨，占中国进口总量的 65%。全球大豆贸易流向发生显著调整。美国大豆产业陷入困境。2023 年，美国大豆库存达 15 亿蒲式耳，创历史新高。芝加哥商品交易所大 豆期货价格较 2018 年下跌 28%。中西部农场主被迫将滞销大豆囤积在仓库，部分甚至直接烂在田间。 美国贸易政策的短视性加剧了自身困境。加征关税看似保护本土产业，实则切断了农产品的重要出口通道。政府推出的农业补贴计划，三年间 累计支出 300 亿美元，仍难弥补市场流失带来的损失。中国作为全球最大大豆消费国，年需求量超 1 亿吨。这一市场体量，是美国大豆产业发 展的重要支撑。失去中国市场份额后，美国大豆出口总额年均减少 120 亿美元。 特朗普在公开场合多次表示，愿与中国协商降低大豆关税，承诺 "提供更优惠的出口条 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-China trade tensions have inadvertently created new opportunities for Russia, particularly in the energy and agricultural sectors, as Russia benefits from increased exports to China [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Russia has historically supplied oil and agricultural products to China at discounted prices, but this model may be shifting due to changing market conditions [3]. - Following the US tariffs on Chinese agricultural products, Russia's exports to China, especially in grains, have significantly increased [4][5]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the total trade volume between China and Russia was $53.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, with a notable drop in oil imports from Russia by 12.6% [4]. Group 2: Pricing Strategies - Economic analysts suggest that the escalation of trade tensions provides Russia with an opportunity to improve its pricing strategy, potentially moving away from long-standing discount practices [4]. - Discussions within Russia about adjusting pricing strategies have intensified, especially as the country considers restoring or even increasing prices for its exports [5][8]. - Despite a decrease in trade volume, Russia's oil export value to China has declined by 8%, while coal exports fell by 16% [5]. Group 3: Market Adjustments - As global food prices fluctuate, Russia's wheat exports have increased, but the pricing for the Chinese market is gradually being adjusted upwards [7]. - In the first half of 2025, the total trade volume between China and Russia reached $106.4 billion, down 9.1% year-on-year, with significant drops in oil and LNG imports [5]. - Russia's energy strategy remains largely unchanged, but discussions about price increases are ongoing, reflecting a potential shift in the dynamics of Sino-Russian trade [8]. Group 4: Strategic Cooperation - Despite the challenges, high-level interactions between China and Russia continue, emphasizing the importance of their strategic partnership [4][8]. - China is diversifying its import sources to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on Russian supplies, as seen in its agreements with Ukraine [8]. - The ongoing geopolitical landscape and trade negotiations indicate that both countries are seeking to find mutual benefits despite the pressures from global market changes [8].

声明说："然而，我们经济的其他领域，包括木材、钢铁、铝和汽车，受到美国关税的严重影响。我们 将继续就长期贸易关系与美国谈判，但加拿大新政府已采取重大行动来保护加拿大的就业机会、投资我 们的工业竞争力、购买加拿大产品以及实现出口市场多样化。" 【文/观察者网 陈思佳】本周早些时候，加拿大主要反对党保守党领袖皮埃尔·普瓦列夫尔在阿尔伯塔省 补选中获胜，将以议员身份重返加拿大众议院。据加拿大《环球邮报》8月21日报道，普瓦列夫尔20日 在新闻发布会上抨击加拿大总理卡尼，声称加拿大与美国和中国打交道时"太软弱"，扬言应以"强势姿 态"行事。 普瓦列夫尔称，卡尼未能有效维护加拿大利益，尽管执政的自由党政府对美国作出让步，取消了遭到美 国总统特朗普批评的数字服务税计划，但美国依然提高了对加拿大的关税，"他向特朗普总统做出一个 又一个让步，却什么都没有得到回报。" 《环球邮报》指出，自3月以来，加拿大和美国进行了贸易谈判，双方互相加征了关税。对于普瓦列夫 尔的指责，加拿大总理办公室回应称，根据2018年加拿大、美国和墨西哥达成的自由贸易协定，美国对 加拿大商品的平均关税税率仍然是其所有贸易伙伴中最低的之一。 的数量显著增长 ...

历史交织，格局初现 中美经济关系从冷战结束后逐渐紧密。那时，美国占据全球主导地位，借助国际组织和联盟巩固其地位，中国则在这一框架中逐步崭露头角，经济规模从90 年代的边缘位置迅速跃升，成为世界第二大经济体。两国的贸易往来在此期间得到了飞速增长，1990年时双边贸易额不足50亿美元，到2000年突破1000亿美 元，形成了一种相互依赖的局面。美国企业大量投资中国市场，依托中国低廉的劳动力成本生产商品，再将这些商品运回美国销售。这样一来，双方均从中 获益，但也为未来的矛盾埋下了隐患。 2008年全球金融危机爆发时，美国的经济遭遇了重创，公共债务激增，从9万亿美元飙升至14万亿美元，制造业的岗位也急剧流失，超过200万岗位消失。危 机导致美国经济增长放缓，很多企业倒闭或进行裁员。而与此同时，中国则通过大规模基础设施建设和出口导向型政策，保持了较为稳定的增长。中国政府 推出的4万亿元刺激计划帮助经济维持了9%以上的增长率。这一过程中，展示了两国应对危机的不同路径：美国选择了通过金融救助来应对，而中国则注重 实体经济的复苏。 进入2018年，贸易摩擦加剧，美国对数百亿美元的中国商品加征关税，而中国也及时采取了反制措施。 ...

水坝危机，无疑是莫迪政府的心头之患。就在王毅抵达新德里的当天，印度总理突然通电全国，宣布启动一项名为"妙见神轮任务"的庞大计划：在十年 内建成覆盖医院、铁路、宗教中心的防空网络，誓言绝不让邻国摧毁水坝。此前，巴基斯坦陆军元帅穆尼尔曾放出狠话，称"10枚导弹就能炸毁印度水 坝"，被印方斥为"核讹诈"。 在特朗普关税阴影下，亚洲地缘政治悄然生变：中印关系戏剧性转圜 一架专机缓缓降落在新德里机场，舷梯打开，中国外长王毅的身影出现在舱门口。红毯铺开，印方高级官员早已列队等候，迎接这位三年来的首位中国 外长来访。这一幕迅速占据了全球媒体的头条。此行肩负着重要使命：为即将到来的中印边界问题第24次特别代表会晤做好铺垫，并为莫迪月底访华参 加上合峰会扫清道路。 值得玩味的是，这场中印高级别对话的促成，竟与大洋彼岸的贸易摩擦有着千丝万缕的联系。此前，特朗普政府挥舞关税大棒，对印度商品加征高达 50%的关税，理由是印度购买俄罗斯石油"资助战争"。这一举动无疑触动了印度的敏感神经。新德里街头，抗议美国关税的标语尚未撤下，印度商务部 已悄然放宽对中国可再生能源、消费品领域的投资限制。印度媒体甚至直言，中国正成为印度对冲"特朗普混乱 ...

Core Insights - Yingqu Technology (002925.SZ) reported a revenue of 1.82 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.54%, while net profit attributable to shareholders only slightly increased by 1.66% to 138 million yuan [1] - The company's operating cash flow net amount rose by 27.49% to 308 million yuan, and net financial expenses decreased by 52.26% [1] - The company made provisions for credit and asset impairments totaling 26.97 million yuan, which reduced the net profit attributable to shareholders by 19.51 million yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - The innovative consumer electronics segment saw significant growth of 41.86% to 676 million yuan, with a gross margin increase of 4.47 percentage points to 30.28% [1] - The automotive electronics business grew by 12.02% to 299 million yuan, driven by new customer acquisitions in France and the United States, although its gross margin declined by 6.09 percentage points [1] - The smart control components segment faced a decline of 15.50% to 494 million yuan due to trade friction, with a gross margin decrease of 2.75 percentage points to 23.71% [1] - Health and environmental products grew by 35.69%, but the scale remains below 100 million yuan [1] - Revenue growth for technology research and development services slowed to 3.08% [1] Management Actions - The company's general manager, Yang Ming, reduced his holdings by 779,700 shares during July 2025, with a total value of approximately 13.14 million yuan [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning. In the short - term, the focus on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks will drive it to be volatile and strong. In the long - term, if the interest - rate cut in September is realized, the gold price may challenge a new high of $3500. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a steady upward trend, currently at the end of the trend. The long - term trend depends on the energy transition progress, actual interest - rate cut strength, and the repair momentum of the gold - silver ratio [7][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is sideways, possibly at the start. The Fed's over 90% probability of a September interest - rate cut, a two - week low in the US dollar index, and a decline in US bond yields suppress the cost of holding gold. Geopolitical risks are divided, with trade frictions supporting the safe - haven property of gold. The SPDR Gold ETF has continuously increased its positions (nearly 5 tons weekly), and institutional allocation demand has recovered. The short - term is driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks, while the long - term depends on the strength of the interest - rate cut, inflation stickiness, and the central bank's gold - buying persistence. A "cautious interest - rate cut" signal from the Fed's August 22 meeting minutes may trigger a correction. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [7]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the gold main contract 2510 was expected to be mainly volatile, and grid trading in the 735 - 838 range was recommended. This week, the same strategy is recommended [11][12]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - There are data charts showing the trends of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, silver was affected by a combination of long and short factors. The core support comes from the Fed's over 70% probability of a September interest - rate cut and geopolitical uncertainties. The main suppression is due to the weak industrial fundamentals, inflation resilience, and limited monetary policy easing space. The long - term trend depends on the energy transition progress, actual interest - rate cut strength, and the repair momentum of the gold - silver ratio. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [33]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the silver contract 2510 was expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with a lower support range of 8500 - 8800 and an upper pressure range of 9200 - 9500. This week, the same expectation and range are recommended [36][37]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - There are data charts showing the trends of Shanghai silver futures, COMEX silver futures, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tariffs on 407 derivative products related to steel and aluminum by the Trump administration is a strategic move aimed at protecting domestic industries while also serving political interests in an election year [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Industries - The newly added 407 products include items closely related to steel and aluminum, such as alloy wheels for cars and cold-rolled steel sheets for appliances, effectively extending the tariff to a wide range of industries [3]. - Domestic automotive manufacturers that previously relied on imported specialty steel will face increased costs, potentially leading to reduced profit margins or price hikes for consumers [3]. - The tariffs are expected to provide short-term benefits to U.S. steel and aluminum companies, increasing their orders and production [4]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - The stated purpose of the tariffs is to protect the struggling domestic steel and aluminum industries, which have been facing low capacity utilization rates [3]. - The tariffs may also be a strategic move to secure votes from workers in the "Rust Belt," a key demographic for Trump, as increased orders could lead to job stability [3]. - European countries have threatened retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, which could impact U.S. exports of soybeans and corn, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors should monitor U.S. steel and aluminum companies that may benefit from the tariff-induced demand increase, but caution is advised regarding the sustainability of this policy [4]. - Companies with manufacturing facilities in Mexico or Canada that can circumvent tariffs by processing materials before exporting to the U.S. may find new opportunities [4]. - High-end steel and aluminum manufacturers in China could gain market share in Southeast Asia and South America if they can enhance their technological competitiveness [4]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategy - Trade tensions are likened to a prolonged arm-wrestling match, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong technology and market presence rather than getting caught up in tariff fluctuations [5].

Group 1 - China has filed a lawsuit against Canada at the World Trade Organization (WTO) due to allegations of dumping canola oil, imposing a deposit of up to 75.8% on imports from Canada starting August 14 [1] - Canadian Agriculture Minister expressed disappointment over China's decision but acknowledged efforts to engage in dialogue with China to resolve trade disputes [3] - Canada has not taken substantial corrective measures in the four days following China's announcement, prompting further action from China [3] Group 2 - Canada imposed discriminatory tariffs on Chinese steel products as a means to address trade tensions with the United States, which has placed significant tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum [3][5] - The Canadian government previously announced a 100% tariff on electric vehicles from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from China to appease the U.S. [5] - The new Canadian Prime Minister, Carney, has taken a firm stance against U.S. pressure, but recent tariffs on products containing "Chinese steel components" indicate ongoing trade discrimination [5] Group 3 - China is no longer willing to tolerate Canada's previous approach of externalizing internal issues by targeting China, warning that further actions harming Chinese interests will lead to consequences [7] - The expectation is for Canada to recognize the situation and work towards a positive development in bilateral relations with China [7]

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula refutes U.S. President Trump's claim that Brazil is a "bad trade partner," labeling it as a lie and asserting that Brazil will not yield to U.S. pressure [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - Lula states that the U.S. claims of suffering losses in trade with Brazil are false, emphasizing that the U.S. is actually in a surplus position [1] - The U.S. currently imposes a 40% tariff on Brazilian imports, with many products facing tariffs as high as 50% [1] Group 2: Export Strategy - Lula indicates that if the U.S. is unwilling to purchase Brazilian products, Brazil will seek to export to other countries, including BRICS nations such as China, India, and Russia [1]