全球汽车制造巨头们交出的2025年财务答卷，显得格外沉重。在电动化转型深度调整、全球贸易壁垒高企，以及区域市场需求分化的多重夹击下，除了少数 企业保持住了体面，绝大多数国际车企都遭遇了罕见的利润滑坡。 大众汽车集团（下称"大众集团"）2025年前三季度净利润已大幅收缩61.5%，致其不得不对高达1600亿欧元的投资计划进行"瘦身"。梅赛德斯-奔驰集团2025 年全年净利润锐减约48.8%，集团董事长康林松将这一年定义为"战略谷底"。美系车企亦未能独善其身，福特汽车虽实现营收五连增，但因战略调整产生巨 额特殊费用，最终录得82亿美元净亏损；通用汽车净利润遭腰斩，同比下滑55%。即便是作为"行业翘楚"的特斯拉，也首次出现了营收同比下滑，净利润跌 幅接近五成。 国际车企业绩普降，三大核心变量的影响不容忽视：其一，以美国关税为代表的贸易摩擦直接侵蚀利润，德国车企普遍将盈利下滑归咎于此；其二，中国市 场的竞争烈度升级，导致跨国车企在华销量与利润双双缩水，挤压了许多品牌曾经的"利润奶牛"效应；其三，前期过于激进的纯电战略遭遇市场现实阻击， 迫使Stellantis、本田等企业不得不计提巨额减值，为战略误判"买单"。 从欧 ...

文︱陆弃 在全球贸易体系中，争端并不罕见，但每一次进入正式裁决程序的案件，往往都折射出更深层的结构性 张力。2月24日，世界贸易组织争端解决机构决定成立专家组，审理中国与印度围绕可再生能源与汽车 领域关税及相关措施的分歧。这一程序性进展看似技术性，却在多边贸易秩序持续承压的背景下，具有 格外鲜明的象征意义。 近年来，新能源与汽车产业已成为各国政策布局的核心。能源转型目标叠加产业竞争现实，使政府在市 场开放与产业保护之间反复权衡。关税、补贴、本地化要求与激励机制交织，既是政策工具，也是争议 源头。当这些措施被指"限制性"或"歧视性"，分歧便从双边谈判进入制度框架。此次争端的走向，正是 在这一逻辑下展开。 中国方面认为，印度在可再生能源与汽车领域实施的关税与激励安排违反了多边规则，并已在此前会议 中请求成立专家组。印度则对争端持续表示遗憾，强调其措施符合世贸组织规则，并指出已本着诚意参 与磋商。双方立场分歧并不令人意外，却再次凸显多边机制在复杂政策环境中的调解角色。 问题的关键不仅在于关税税率本身，更在于政策设计背后的治理逻辑。新能源产业具有显著的战略属 性，涉及能源安全、技术创新与就业结构调整。各国通过政策支持 ...

日内上方短期阻力位于5220美元附近，一旦突破该区域，市场可能进一步测试5240美元区域。下方支撑 关注5150美元，一旦失守，则可能回踩5100美元整数关口；若进一步跌破5100美元，则下方可能向5050 美元区域寻找买盘支撑； 2月25日，亚洲交易时段，现货黄金小幅上涨，但仍受制于5200美元整数关口。当前黄金上涨主要由两 大驱动因素构成：地缘风险溢价和美元阶段性走弱。从货币政策角度看，美联储仍维持偏鹰立场。近期 会议纪要显示，多数官员认为在通胀未明显回落前，不宜快速降息。但市场对美国贸易政策存在较强担 忧。美国已对大部分进口商品征收10%关税，并计划进一步上调至15%。贸易摩擦可能引发供应链冲击 和经济增长放缓预期，通常会增加避险资产配置需求，从而对黄金形成支撑。总体来看，黄金当前处于 宏观利多与风险偏好波动之间的平衡状态，趋势性上涨仍未被破坏，但上行节奏有所放缓。 黄金日线及4小时结构仍维持多头趋势形态。价格在5100美元上方形成重要结构支撑区域，说明多头防 守较为稳固。当前市场的关键价格行为特征是：上涨动能放缓，但未出现趋势反转信号。相对强弱指标 （RSI）约在62附近运行，表明市场仍处于强势区间但 ...

变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 今日国内品牌金店金价多数上涨，仅周生生微跌2元，老凤祥、菜百等品牌价格不变。其中周大福、潮 宏基、周大生黄金以1570元/克并列成为今日最高价；菜百与上海中国黄金则继续以1538元/克报出最低 价。高低价差与昨日持平，仍为32元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： 今日金价 单位 周大福黄金价格 涨 六福黄金价格 1568 元/克 3 涨 元/克 1 1566 1570 元/克 5 涨 周六福黄金价格 1565 元/克 5 涨 今日金店黄金价格一览（2026年2月25日） 金店报价 金至尊黄金价格 1568 元/克 3 涨 老凤祥黄金价格 1566 元/克 0 平 潮宏基黄金价格 1570 跌 菜百黄金价格 1538 元/克 元/克 5 涨 周生生黄金价格 1568 元/克 2 0 平 上海中国黄金价格 1538 元/克 0 平 元/克 5 涨 今日黄金价格保持上涨，黄金回收价格也有所波动，考虑到不同品牌回收价差也较大，以下为部分金店 回收参考价： 今日金价 单位 黄金 1137.90 元/克 菜百黄金 1180.90 元/克 周生生黄金 1169.50 老凤祥黄金 1147.6 ...

前言：富格林投资以客为先稳健营运超过15载，凭借规范专业产品配套及广泛优质服务口碑成功跻身亚洲500强名企行列，专家团队提供即时 市况独到见解，精准把脉布局行情趋势先机。周二（2月24日）国际金价回落逾1%，自盘中触及的三周高位回调。美元走强与短线获利了结成 为主要压力来源，而市场对特朗普最新关税政策的重新评估，也暂时削弱了避险买盘的强度。 富格林投资以客为先稳健营运超过15载，凭借规范专业产品配套及广泛优质服务口碑成功跻身亚洲500强名企行列，专家团队提供即时市况独 到见解，精准把脉布局行情趋势先机。周二（2月24日）现货黄金价格出现显著回调，从而中断了此前连续四个交易日的上涨行情。这一轮调 整主要源于市场获利了结行为叠加美元指数的明显走强，导致以美元计价的贵金属承压下行。 富格林投资据讯，受美元维稳以及投资者在前期涨势后获利了结的影响，周二国际现货黄金价格从5250附近的近三周高点回落，日内一度跌超 100美元，最终收跌1.6%，报5144美元/盎司；现货白银最终收跌1.15%，报87.18美元/盎司。 现货黄金价格周二从三周高点大幅下滑，黄金主要因投资者获利了结与美元走强而下跌。受表现积极的美国经济数据 ...

贸易摩擦方面看，欧洲议会暂停批准欧美贸易协议，在美国法院裁定特朗普关税政策违法之后，欧洲议会的决定极有可能带动 其他国家和地区的反美情绪。特朗普则警告，不遵守与美国贸易协议的国家将面临更高的关税。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，不管贸易摩擦还是中东地缘摩擦都难以令避险情绪降温，黄金价格有望维持强势。 技术面：日线上，日线阳线，显示行情较为强势。同时近期行情上行突破此前震荡调整箱体，有望打开上行空间。指标上，行 情处于20日均线上方运行，多头占优势。日内关注下方5140美元一线支撑。 黄金方面： 近期地缘政治是影响黄金价格走势的关键因素。美国和伊朗的关系非常微妙，特朗普倾向于同伊朗达成协议，不过在美伊磋商 的过程中，美国常常用武力作为压力。美国总统特朗普最新表态，其倾向于与伊朗达成协议，而非战争。不过美国媒体不断渲 染美国对伊朗采取军事行动，且容易陷入长期的战争。叠加印度等国提醒其公民尽快离开伊朗，避险情绪依旧浓厚。 日线上，近期多个交易日行情震荡偏下行，短期有望延续震荡走势。不过行情回调测试20日均线，短期行情存在企稳反弹的机 会。日内关注下方56666一线支撑情况。 原油方面： 原油市场当前依旧是地 ...

01 金融期货策略建议 目 录 重点数据跟踪 02 股指关注两会预期，国债 关注供给压力 2026-02-24 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：四大股指均震荡运行，节前有所承压。 p 核心观点：中国商务部：敦促美方取消对贸易伙伴加征的有关单边关税措施。美国海关称将从2月24日 起停止征收被最高法院裁定违法的关税。美民主党称将阻止任何延长关税企图，力推强制退款方案。欧 盟冻结对美欧贸易协议的批准程序，并警告称特朗普的新关税破坏双方贸易协定。美联储理事沃勒： CEO们称AI将致大量裁员，3月利率决议取决于2月劳动力数据。AI担忧加剧，贵金属走强，股指短期 或震荡运行，两会前或震荡偏强运行，可关注市场对两会预期的情绪。 p 技术分析：MACD指标显示大盘指数或震荡运行。 p 策略展望：区间震荡。 p 风险提示：特朗普政策实施节奏与力度，美国经济数据暴雷，美联储降息节奏， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

当日市场波动主要受美国关税政策不确定性影响。特朗普政府于2月21日宣布将全球进口关税税率从 10%提升至15%，并于2月24日正式实施。这一政策加剧了投资者对贸易摩擦升级的担忧，导致金融板 块承压。此外，摩根士丹利分析师团队近期频繁调整多只股票评级（如上调高盛目标价至1078美元）， 可能引发市场对其业务风险敞口的关注。 行业政策现状 华尔街见闻2月23日报道指出，美国最高法院推翻IEEPA关税后，政策路径不明确性笼罩市场。尽管高 盛与摩根士丹利分析认为实际关税率降幅有限，但投资者仍担忧金融业在贸易冲突中的盈利韧性，尤其 是投行与跨境资本流动相关业务。同期现货黄金突破5200美元/盎司，避险情绪显著升温。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 来源：经济观察网 经济观察网 2026年2月23日，摩根士丹利（MS.N）股价下跌4.49%，收盘报167.54美元，振幅达 5.11%。其所属的资本市场板块整体下跌2.60%，同期道琼斯指数跌1.49%，纳斯达克指数跌1.15%。 股票近期走势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the WTO ruling against the U.S. regarding tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum, highlighting the U.S. government's immediate response to impose additional tariffs globally, which escalates trade tensions and disrupts international trade norms [1][4][21]. Group 1: WTO Ruling and U.S. Response - The WTO ruled that the U.S. tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum, justified under "national security," were unilateral sanctions, requiring the U.S. to refund $175 billion [3][4]. - Following the ruling, the U.S. administration quickly issued a memorandum imposing an additional 10% "defensive tariff" on all imports except for Canada and Mexico, indicating a disregard for international law [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The announcement of new tariffs led to significant turmoil in global financial markets, with stock markets in Tokyo plummeting and the euro experiencing a sharp decline [5][16]. - The article notes that the situation has escalated beyond typical trade disputes, suggesting a fundamental challenge to established trade rules [5][18]. Group 3: Global Reactions and Countermeasures - In response to the U.S. tariffs, the EU quickly prepared a retaliation list targeting key American products, while Japan and South Korea also considered countermeasures [9][12]. - The article emphasizes that the U.S. approach is not merely about protecting domestic industries but is creating tensions within global supply chains, forcing countries to take sides [9][12]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The U.S. tariffs have led to a significant drop in American agricultural exports to China, with Brazilian soybeans gaining market share [14][21]. - The article highlights that the average tariff rate on Chinese goods entering the U.S. has become excessively high, affecting not only China but also other major exporting countries like Vietnam and the EU [18][21]. Group 5: Strategic Consequences - The U.S. tariffs are seen as a means to fund military expenditures in the Indo-Pacific region, raising concerns about the implications for regional security dynamics [11][12]. - The article concludes that the U.S. strategy of using tariffs as a tool for economic and military advantage may backfire, leading to increased global resistance and a shift towards a multipolar world [21][24].