1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "Neutral" [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bearish outlook on natural rubber. Although there are some bullish factors such as high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices, the overall situation is affected by bearish factors including weak domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to high crude oil prices. Also, natural rubber is entering a bearish season [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The overall fundamental situation of natural rubber is neutral with spot prices being strong, inventory accumulating in Qingdao, and tire operating rates at a high level. The basis is bearish, while the market trend and main positions are bullish. The overall outlook is bearish considering the current season [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on March 16 [8] 3.2.2 Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed little recently, while the inventory in Qingdao area is accumulating [14][17] 3.2.3 Import - The import volume has declined [20] 3.2.4 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have declined, while tire production has increased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [23][26][29][32] 3.3 Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish factors: high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices [6] - Bearish factors: weak domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to high crude oil prices [6] 3.4 Basis - The basis weakened on March 16 [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhongxin Co., Ltd. is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The initial ruling on anti-dumping and countervailing duties by Canada has a limited overall impact on the company, with the countervailing tax rates set at 11.8% and 5.7% for the company and Guangxi Huabao respectively, and an anti-dumping tax rate of 26.1% [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from its cost advantages and the restructuring of trade chains, with a clear growth path despite concerns over increased competition from Thailand [2] - The company has plans for new production lines in Chongzuo and expansion in the U.S. market, which may enhance its growth logic if trade frictions escalate [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,326 million, with a growth rate of 0.8%. For 2024, revenue is expected to increase to 1,546 million, reflecting a growth rate of 16.6% [5][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 231 million, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5%. This is expected to rise to 324 million in 2024, showing a growth of 39.9% [5][7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 305 million, with a decline of 5.7%, followed by a significant increase to 596 million in 2026, representing a growth of 95.3% [5][7] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 31.8% in 2023 to 39.3% by 2027 [5][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 35.19 in 2023 to 10.00 by 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation as earnings grow [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The global automotive industry is facing significant profit declines due to challenges such as electric vehicle (EV) transition, trade barriers, and market demand fluctuations, leading to strategic adjustments among major automakers [2][3][4]. Group 1: European Automakers - Major European automakers, including Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, are experiencing severe profit declines, with Volkswagen's net profit down 61.5% and Mercedes-Benz's down 48.8% [2][4][5][6]. - Volkswagen's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was €238.7 billion, a slight increase of 0.6%, but it reported a net loss of €1.072 billion in Q3, marking its first quarterly loss in five years [5]. - Mercedes-Benz's revenue decreased by approximately 9% to €132.2 billion, with a net profit drop to €5.331 billion, attributed to increased competition and high costs from tariffs and investments in EVs [6]. Group 2: American Automakers - American automakers, including Ford and General Motors, are also facing significant profit declines, with Ford reporting a net loss of $8.2 billion despite a revenue increase to $187.3 billion [9][10]. - General Motors' revenue slightly decreased by 1.3% to $185.02 billion, with a net profit drop of 55.1% to $2.697 billion, largely due to one-time special expenses related to its EV strategy [10]. - Tesla reported its first revenue decline of 3% to $94.827 billion and a net profit drop of 46% to $3.794 billion, with a decrease in vehicle deliveries [11]. Group 3: Japanese Automakers - Japanese automakers show a mixed performance, with Toyota maintaining strong profitability while Honda and Nissan face significant losses [12][13][14]. - Toyota's revenue for 2025 was approximately ¥44.7 trillion, a 6.8% increase, but its net profit fell by about 26% to ¥3.7 trillion, impacted by tariffs [12][13]. - Honda's revenue decreased by 2.2% to ¥15.98 trillion, with a net profit drop of 42.2% due to asset impairments in its EV business [14]. - Nissan is expected to report a net loss of ¥650 billion for the fiscal year, with a significant drop in global sales [14]. Group 4: South Korean Automakers - South Korean automaker Hyundai reported record revenue of ₩186.3 trillion, a 6.3% increase, but its net profit fell by 21.7% to ₩10.36 trillion due to external pressures [15].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of an expert group by the World Trade Organization to address the trade dispute between China and India over tariffs and measures in the renewable energy and automotive sectors reflects deeper structural tensions within the global trade system [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Dispute Context - The renewable energy and automotive industries have become central to national policy strategies, leading governments to balance market openness with industry protection [3]. - China claims that India's tariffs and incentives in the renewable energy and automotive sectors violate multilateral rules, while India asserts that its measures comply with WTO regulations [3]. - The dispute highlights the role of multilateral mechanisms in mediating complex policy environments, with the key issue being the governance logic behind policy design rather than just tariff rates [3]. Group 2: Implications of the Dispute - The establishment of the expert group signifies the transition to a phase of factual determination and legal assessment, requiring rigorous argumentation from both parties [3]. - Since 2019, the appointment of judges to the appellate body has been obstructed, limiting the final adjudicative function of the dispute resolution system, which poses challenges to the enforcement and authority of expert group reports [5]. - The dispute serves as a test of the resilience of multilateral mechanisms, with the ability of the expert group to maintain professionalism and neutrality in politically charged industrial issues being crucial for the perceived effectiveness of the system [5]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Effects - The highly globalized nature of the renewable energy and automotive supply chains means that any trade friction can trigger chain reactions, affecting investment decisions and supply chain configurations [5]. - Prolonged disputes may lead to increased policy uncertainty, impacting capital and technology flows and reducing the efficiency of industrial collaboration [5]. - If member countries frequently resort to unilateral measures in key industries, it could lead to a cycle of "policy competition" and "rule friction," undermining the stability of the trade system [7]. Group 4: Future Challenges - The long-term challenge lies in the repair and updating of the dispute resolution system, as the global economic structure and technological landscape are undergoing significant changes [7]. - Establishing clearer boundaries between encouraging industrial innovation and maintaining fair competition is essential for the multilateral trade system to respond effectively to new challenges [7].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a slight increase but remain constrained by the $5200 level, driven by geopolitical risk premiums and a temporary weakening of the US dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Market Drivers - The current rise in gold is primarily influenced by two factors: geopolitical risk premiums and a phase of dollar weakness [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, with recent meeting minutes indicating that most officials believe interest rates should not be lowered quickly until inflation shows a significant decline [1][3]. - Concerns regarding US trade policies are strong, with the US imposing a 10% tariff on most imported goods and planning to increase it to 15%, which may lead to supply chain disruptions and economic growth slowdown, thereby increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a balance between macroeconomic advantages and fluctuations in risk appetite, with the upward trend not being broken but the pace of increase slowing [1][3]. - The daily and 4-hour structures for gold maintain a bullish trend, with significant support established above $5100, indicating solid defense from bulls [1][3]. - Key price behavior features include slowing upward momentum without signs of trend reversal, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 62, indicating a strong market but not in an extreme overbought condition [1][3]. - The MACD indicator shows a gradual reduction in positive momentum, suggesting the market is in a high-level consolidation phase rather than at a trend peak [1][3]. Group 3: Support and Resistance Levels - Short-term resistance is noted around $5220, with potential further testing of the $5240 area if this level is breached [2][4]. - Key support levels are identified at $5150, with a potential drop to the $5100 level if this support fails; further declines could lead to seeking support around $5050 [2][4]. - Daily resistance levels include $5210, $5220, and $5240, while support levels are at $5160, $5140, $5100, and $5050 [2][4].

Price Trends - Domestic gold prices at major brands mostly increased today, with only Chow Sang Sang experiencing a slight decrease of 2 yuan, while brands like Lao Feng Xiang and Cai Bai remained unchanged [1] - The highest gold prices today were reported at 1570 yuan/gram for brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Chao Hong Ji, and Zhou Da Sheng, while Cai Bai and Shanghai China Gold reported the lowest at 1538 yuan/gram, maintaining a price difference of 32 yuan/gram from yesterday [1] Detailed Brand Prices - Lao Miao Gold price: 1566 yuan/gram, up by 1 yuan [1] - Liufuk Gold price: 1568 yuan/gram, up by 3 yuan [3] - Chow Tai Fook Gold price: 1570 yuan/gram, up by 5 yuan [3] - Zhou Liu Fu Gold price: 1565 yuan/gram, up by 5 yuan [1] - Jin Zun Gold price: 1568 yuan/gram, up by 3 yuan [3] - Old Feng Xiang Gold price: 1566 yuan/gram, unchanged [3] - Chao Hong Ji Gold price: 1570 yuan/gram, up by 5 yuan [3] - Zhou Sheng Sheng Gold price: 1568 yuan/gram, down by 2 yuan [3] - Cai Bai Gold price: 1538 yuan/gram, unchanged [3] - Shanghai China Gold price: 1538 yuan/gram, unchanged [3] Recovery Prices - The gold recovery prices have shown fluctuations, with the following reference prices: - Cai Bai: 1180.90 yuan/gram - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 1169.50 yuan/gram - Chow Tai Fook: 1110.00 yuan/gram - Lao Feng Xiang: 1147.66 yuan/gram [4] International Market Context - The spot gold price experienced a significant drop yesterday, falling over 100 USD, and closed at 5142.61 USD/ounce, a decrease of 1.64% [7] - Today, spot gold has rebounded, currently reported at 5191.65 USD/ounce, with an increase of 0.95% [7] - The market's expectation of no further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as stated by Boston Fed President Collins, has supported a stronger USD, contributing to the previous day's gold price drop [7] - Concerns over escalating trade tensions due to the Trump administration's tariff increases have heightened risk aversion, contributing to gold's rebound [7] - Ongoing tensions in the US-Iran situation are also providing support for gold prices, with expectations of further increases [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a significant decline, dropping over 1% after reaching a three-week high, primarily due to a stronger dollar and profit-taking by investors [1][2] - Spot gold prices fell from around 5250 to 5144 USD/ounce, marking a drop of 1.6%, while spot silver decreased by 1.15% to 87.18 USD/ounce [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Positive U.S. economic data, including an increase of 128,000 in private sector jobs and a consumer confidence index of 91.2, contributed to the dollar's rebound [2] - Federal Reserve officials expressed a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, reinforcing the dollar's attractiveness and putting pressure on gold prices [2] Group 3: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Ongoing uncertainty in U.S. trade policy, particularly following a Supreme Court ruling against Trump's unilateral tariff powers, has raised concerns in the market [3] - Trump's announcement to raise temporary tariffs from 10% to 15% on global imports has further complicated the trade landscape, leading to fears of escalating trade tensions [3] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks - Tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are contributing to market volatility, with military actions and negotiations ongoing [4] - The potential for military conflict in the region is increasing, which could impact global oil supply and prices [4] Group 5: Investment Outlook - Despite downward pressure on gold prices, uncertainties in trade policy and geopolitical risks are providing support for gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - The current market conditions may present a unique opportunity for investors in the long-term bullish trend for gold [4] Group 6: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices are under pressure due to increased production from OPEC+ and rising U.S. inventories, with WTI and Brent crude prices reported at 66.06 USD/barrel and 71.07 USD/barrel respectively [6][7] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. inventory data to assess short-term price movements [7] Group 7: Company Profile - The company has been operating in Hong Kong for 15 years, focusing on integrating into national development and enhancing the competitiveness of the Chinese gold market [9] - The company aims to facilitate a "connectivity" mechanism between the Hong Kong and mainland gold markets, enhancing bilateral market access and collaboration [9]

Group 1: Gold Market - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are key factors influencing gold prices, with a prevailing risk-off sentiment due to military action concerns [2] - Analysts suggest that both trade tensions and Middle Eastern geopolitical issues are unlikely to reduce risk aversion, indicating that gold prices may remain strong [3] - Technical indicators show that gold is trading above the 20-day moving average, suggesting a bullish trend, with support at $5140 [3] Group 2: Oil Market - The oil market is currently caught between geopolitical tensions and oversupply, with concerns over potential supply disruptions due to US-Iran military actions [4] - Despite geopolitical risks, the oil market is experiencing oversupply, and significant price increases are unlikely unless there is a major and sustained supply shortage [4] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices are showing strength, with support at $65 [4] Group 3: US Dollar Index - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is heavily dependent on February employment data, with a 4% probability of a rate cut in March and a 96% probability of maintaining current rates [5] - The market anticipates a potential rate cut of 25 basis points by June, with a probability of 46.8% [5] - Technical indicators suggest an upward trend for the dollar index, with support at 97.40 [5] Group 4: Other Markets - The Nikkei 225 index is experiencing a downward trend, with potential for stabilization and a rebound, focusing on support at 56666 [7] - The copper market is in a consolidation phase, with a potential death cross forming between the 20-day and 62-day moving averages, indicating a risk of further declines [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core Views - **Stock Index**: AI concerns are intensifying, precious metals are strengthening, and the stock index may fluctuate in the short term. It may show a slightly upward trend before the Two Sessions. Market sentiment towards the Two Sessions can be monitored [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is facing significant supply pressure after the holiday. If this pressure can be continuously absorbed, it may dialectically contribute to the continuation of the bond bull market since the beginning of the year. Attention should be paid to supply pressure, and treasury bonds may fluctuate [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: The four major stock indices fluctuated and faced pressure before the holiday [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Range - bound fluctuations [11]. - **Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Treasury bonds showed a slightly upward trend in the pre - holiday period but faced pressure on the last trading day before the holiday [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [13]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Fluctuating operation [13]. Key Data Tracking - **PMI** - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%. Compared with December last year, it decreased significantly, but it was basically the same as in November last year. Production recovered mainly due to the improvement in the upstream industry, and export orders increased slightly, which may continuously drive the high - tech manufacturing industry. However, there is no obvious improvement in demand, and inventory tends to accumulate. High raw material prices may affect industrial enterprise profitability [19]. - **CPI** - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026: low base, narrowing decline in pork prices, impact of gold price fluctuations, and expansion of service consumption [22]. - **Imports and Exports** - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports unexpectedly rebounded to 6.6%, much higher than the Reuters consensus forecast of 3%. The month - on - month growth rate was 8.3%, higher than the average of the past ten years (5.9%), and the two - year compound growth rate also rebounded to 8.6%. The over - expected export growth in 2025 was due to two cognitive biases in the market. The "One Belt, One Road investment driving foreign trade" cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. - **Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size** - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline, with the decline expanding to - 13.1%, reaching the weakest level since September 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of revenue rebounded to - 0.3%. The decline in profit growth was mainly due to the significant drop in profit margins [29]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment** - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8%, significantly lower than in 2024 and turning negative. It is estimated that the growth rate in December was - 16.0%, with the decline continuing to expand. In December, the growth rates of private investment and public investment were - 17.2% and - 14.3% respectively, both with expanding declines. Among the components, the growth rate of construction and installation projects dropped to - 28.0%, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses rebounded to 8.7% and 0.3% respectively [32]. - **Social Retail** - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and retail above the quota were 3.7%, 4.4%, and 3.3% respectively, all slightly higher than in 2024. In December, the growth rate of social retail dropped to 0.9%, while the decline in retail above the quota narrowed to - 1.9%. The differentiation was due to weak consumption across channels and reduced drag from durable goods [35]. - **Social Financing** - On February 13, 2026, the central bank announced the financial statistics for January 2026. In January, the new social financing was 7.2 trillion, and the new RMB loans were 4.7 trillion. At the end of January, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 9.0%. The year - on - year increase in social financing was mainly supported by government bonds, undiscounted bills, and foreign currency loans. The year - on - year increase in long - term loans for both residents and enterprises decreased, while the year - on - year increase in short - term loans increased. M1 and M2 both rebounded year - on - year, and non - bank deposits continued to increase. The coordination of monetary and fiscal policies maintained sufficient liquidity [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].