Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October but gave a hawkish hint, with uncertainty about December rate - cut and the Fed's access to official data due to government shutdown and the expected announcement of the next Fed chair by Trump [2] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded after breaking below 4%, and caution is needed when it breaks below this level due to uncertainty in US tariff policy and fiscal balance [2] - The cooling trend in the US employment market is difficult to change, and high - interest rates may suppress the employment market and macro - economy, especially if it impacts the real estate market [2] - The US government shutdown may end in November. After that, the rate - cut process can continue, and November's consumption and inflation data may clarify the trend of the US Treasury market [2] - The producer price index has rebounded, with various commodity prices showing different trends in the week of November 1, 2025 [2] Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Scanning - **Sino - US Leaders' Meeting**: On October 30, Sino - US leaders agreed to strengthen cooperation in economy, trade, energy and promote cultural exchanges [2] - **Fed's Interest - Rate Cut and Hints**: The Fed cut rates by 25BP in October. Powell said December rate - cut is not certain, and there is strong internal disagreement. Uncertainty exists in the amount of official data the Fed can receive due to government shutdown, and the market may have concerns about Powell's conservatism at the end of his term [2] - **US Treasury Yield Movement**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded after breaking below 4% following the Fed's hawkish rate - cut. Caution is needed when it breaks below 4% due to uncertainties in tariff policy and fiscal balance [2] - **US Employment Market Situation**: The cooling trend in the US employment market is difficult to change. The 9 - month non - farm employment data is not released, and the ADP private non - farm employment growth rate declined with a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September. The government shutdown impacts federal government employment, and it's hard to change the overall non - farm employment situation [2] - **US Government Shutdown Outlook**: The shutdown may end in November. After that, the rate - cut process can continue. November's consumption and inflation data may clarify the US Treasury market trend [2] - **Price Index Changes**: In the week of November 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased 1.46% week - on - week and decreased 27.10% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased 8.09% week - on - week and 3.83% year - on - year. The producer price index increased 0.40% week - on - week and decreased 4.27% year - on - year [2] High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scanning - **High - Frequency Data and Key Macro - Indicator Trends Comparison**: Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data such as copper prices, steel production, and key macro - indicators like industrial added value, PPI, and export volume [18][20][29] - **Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe**: Charts display the relationship between US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and economic growth, inflation, and financial conditions, as well as the implied interest - rate adjustment prospects of the US and the Eurozone [86][88][97] - **Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data**: Charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data such as steel production, producer price index, and real estate - related data [99][103][109] - **High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen**: Charts present the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in these four cities [153][156]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The next - stage monetary policy may focus on maintaining ample liquidity while preventing the use of liquidity for long - bond speculation. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield may stabilize around the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, and the DR007 rate's fluctuation center may approach the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. The upward adjustment pressure on long - term yields may ease, but reasons for a downward trend are insufficient [3]. - The US 2Q GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, but the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. The US GDP growth may slow down. The US PCE inflation expanded in August, but the sustainability of consumer demand expansion is questionable. If the Fed cuts interest rates slowly, it may later be forced to cut them faster [3]. - The producer price index continued to decline month - on - month. The average wholesale price of pork and the price index of edible agricultural products decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in September 2025 was slightly lower than that in September 2024 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Prudence Perspective on Long - Term Yields - The third - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee proposed to strengthen the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, observe and evaluate the bond market from a macro - prudent perspective, and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. The next - stage monetary policy may focus on maintaining liquidity while preventing long - bond speculation [3]. - The 1 - year Treasury bond yield approaching the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate may reflect the market's expectation of no interest rate cuts or hikes. The DR007 rate's fluctuation center is higher than the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. To cooperate with fiscal policies, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield may stabilize around the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, and the DR007 rate may further approach it. The upward adjustment pressure on long - term yields may ease, but a downward trend is unlikely [3]. 3.2 US GDP Data Revision and PCE Price Increase - The US 2Q GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, but the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. Given the slowdown in non - farm employment growth, US GDP growth may slow down [3]. - The year - on - year increase in the US PCE price in August expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%. The expansion of PCE inflation was mainly due to the rebound in the nominal growth rate of personal consumption, but the consumer confidence index in September dropped. The sustainability of consumer demand expansion is questionable. If the Fed cuts interest rates slowly, it may later be forced to cut them faster [3]. 3.3 Producer Price Index and Commodity Prices - In the week of September 27, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.94% month - on - month and 25.25% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 0.89% month - on - month and decreased by 32.56% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products in the week of September 19 decreased by 0.10% month - on - month and 13.24% year - on - year [3]. - Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices increased by 1.50% and 1.02% respectively on average week - on - week. The average weekly price of LME copper spot increased by 0.74%, and that of aluminum decreased by 1.95%. The copper - gold ratio decreased by 1.53% week - on - week [3]. - The domestic cement price index increased by 2.03% week - on - week, the South China iron ore index decreased by 0.04% on average week - on - week, the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased by 0.16% week - on - week, the inventory of rebar decreased by 2.75% week - on - week, and the rebar price index increased by 0.18% week - on - week. The producer price index in the week of September 19 decreased by 0.20% month - on - month and 5.11% year - on - year [3]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - From September 1 - 25, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 21.8 million square meters per day, slightly lower than the 22.9 million square meters per day in September 2024 [3]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report presents various high - frequency data, including domestic long - and short - term interest rate indicators, US non - farm employment and economic growth, US personal consumption growth, and high - frequency data's week - on - week changes [3][11][14]. - It also shows the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators, important high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe, the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, and high - frequency traffic data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Upstream prices are showing a divergence. Edible agricultural product prices continue to decline, while production material prices have rebounded in the last two weeks. The narrowing decline in production material prices is due to the continuous optimization of the domestic market competition order, and some key industrial raw material prices have significantly rebounded. The supply of edible agricultural products is sufficient, leading to a continued price decline and an expanding year - on - year decline [2]. - From August 1 - 7, 2025, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 174,000 square meters per day, compared with about 232,000 square meters per day in August 2024 [2]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - For food, the average wholesale price of pork in the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, decreased by 0.53% week - on - week and 21.25% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 4.80% week - on - week and decreased by 26.15% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.20% week - on - week and 9.66% year - on - year [2]. - For energy, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 5.82% and 5.23% week - on - week respectively. Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 3.18% week - on - week [11]. - For non - ferrous metals, LME copper and aluminum spot prices decreased by 0.60% and 0.15% week - on - week respectively, and the copper - to - gold ratio decreased by 2.57% week - on - week [11]. - For real estate, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 15.22% week - on - week, while the total transaction price of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 17.37% week - on - week [11]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report presents multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, including the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, and the relationship between the production material price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [15][18] Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report includes information on US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, unemployment rates, same - store sales growth, PCE year - on - year, as well as the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index and the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [86][82][85] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of the average daily crude steel production, production material price index, and China's commodity price index [93][99] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [143][144]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The binding of the Trump administration's tariff and tax - cut policies will become more obvious, and it is highly likely that the two policies will either pass or be rejected simultaneously [2][11] - The US employment market is operating stably. In May, employment signals were contradictory, but non - farm employment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the weekly wage index growth rate is close to the pre - pandemic level, which may not change the downward trend of core inflation [2][14] - The focus of monetary policy lies in the persistence of the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - CBO estimates that the OBBBA may lead to a reduction of $3.7 trillion in federal fiscal revenue and $1.3 trillion in expenditure from 2025 - 2034, along with $55.1 billion in debt costs, resulting in an increase of about $3 trillion in government debt. However, tariffs may reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion from 2025 - 2035, but will also cause negative economic impacts and inflation in the next two years [2][10] - The Trump administration's tariff policy faces legal challenges, and the OBBBA is still under discussion in the Senate. The binding of tariff and tax - cut policies will be stronger [2][11] - In May, the US employment market had contradictory signals. ADP employment increased slightly, while non - farm employment grew strongly. Non - farm employment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the non - farm hourly wage growth rate was stable [2][14] - From June 2 - 7, 2025, agricultural product prices mostly declined, and commodity prices showed mixed trends. For example, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.55% week - on - week, and the price of Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.60% week - on - week [2] 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple charts show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as PPI, CPI, and export volume, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [22][28][29] 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display the relationship between US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth, initial jobless claims and unemployment rate, same - store sales growth and PCE year - on - year, etc., as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [83][85][87] 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data such as 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, LME copper spot settlement price, and production material price index, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [94][96][100] 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [147][151]

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The growth of US personal consumption expenditure has slowed down. In April, the month - on - month growth of US personal consumption expenditure was 0.2%, and the nominal year - on - year growth was 5.4%. The personal savings rate rose to 4.9%. The growth of commodity retail was relatively flat, and the improvement of the year - on - year growth of the Redbook same - store retail index in May was not obvious. If the Trump administration wins the appeal on the tariff issue, its trade policy stance may become stronger [2]. - The producer price index continues to decline. From May 26th to May 31st, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork by the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 0.30% month - on - month and 6.16% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 0.42% month - on - month and decreased by 5.77% year - on - year. The production material price index decreased by 0.60% month - on - month and 10.46% year - on - year in the week of May 23rd [2]. - From May 1st to May 28th, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 245,000 square meters, slightly lower than the 248,000 square meters in the same period in 2024 [2]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The growth of US personal consumption expenditure has slowed down, and the producer price index continues to decline. There are also data on various high - frequency indicators such as food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping, including their month - on - month and year - on - year changes [2][16][17]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - There are comparisons between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, the producer price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [20]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - There are data on US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, initial jobless claims and unemployment rates, same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year, as well as the Chicago Fed financial conditions index, and the implied prospects of the US federal funds futures for interest rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest rate hikes/cuts [80][82][84]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - It shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data for various indicators such as the average daily production of crude steel (decadal), producer price index, China's commodity price index, steel price index, 30 large and medium - sized cities' commercial housing trading area, LME copper spot settlement price, Brent crude oil futures settlement price, etc. [91][95][101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - It presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [144][146][148].