固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 宏观审慎角度看长期收益率 高频数据扫描 货币政策委员会提出从宏观审慎角度评估长期收益率。美国 GDP 上修，但焦 点或仍在房地产市场和建筑业就业。 相关研究报告 《如何看待美债长期利率触顶》20231122 《"平坦化"存款降息》20231217 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《利率债与房地产的均衡分析》20240331 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国通胀形势》20250119 《美国的赤字、储蓄率与利率》20250216 《美国经济：失速还是滞胀？》20250330 《美债成为贸易摩擦焦点》20250413 《贸易摩擦将迎关键数据》20250427 《中美股债再平衡》20250512 《美国 4 月零售、通胀数据平淡》20250518 《美债这波下挫有何不同?》20250525 《美国关税政策面临法律挑战》20250530 《美国财政前景的变数》20250609 《美国通胀数据平淡、关税立场或难改变》 202 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Upstream prices are showing a divergence. Edible agricultural product prices continue to decline, while production material prices have rebounded in the last two weeks. The narrowing decline in production material prices is due to the continuous optimization of the domestic market competition order, and some key industrial raw material prices have significantly rebounded. The supply of edible agricultural products is sufficient, leading to a continued price decline and an expanding year - on - year decline [2]. - From August 1 - 7, 2025, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 174,000 square meters per day, compared with about 232,000 square meters per day in August 2024 [2]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - For food, the average wholesale price of pork in the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, decreased by 0.53% week - on - week and 21.25% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 4.80% week - on - week and decreased by 26.15% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.20% week - on - week and 9.66% year - on - year [2]. - For energy, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 5.82% and 5.23% week - on - week respectively. Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 3.18% week - on - week [11]. - For non - ferrous metals, LME copper and aluminum spot prices decreased by 0.60% and 0.15% week - on - week respectively, and the copper - to - gold ratio decreased by 2.57% week - on - week [11]. - For real estate, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 15.22% week - on - week, while the total transaction price of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 17.37% week - on - week [11]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report presents multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, including the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, and the relationship between the production material price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [15][18] Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report includes information on US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, unemployment rates, same - store sales growth, PCE year - on - year, as well as the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index and the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [86][82][85] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of the average daily crude steel production, production material price index, and China's commodity price index [93][99] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [143][144]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The growth of US personal consumption expenditure has slowed down. In April, the month - on - month growth of US personal consumption expenditure was 0.2%, and the nominal year - on - year growth was 5.4%. The personal savings rate rose to 4.9%. The growth of commodity retail was relatively flat, and the improvement of the year - on - year growth of the Redbook same - store retail index in May was not obvious. If the Trump administration wins the appeal on the tariff issue, its trade policy stance may become stronger [2]. - The producer price index continues to decline. From May 26th to May 31st, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork by the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 0.30% month - on - month and 6.16% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 0.42% month - on - month and decreased by 5.77% year - on - year. The production material price index decreased by 0.60% month - on - month and 10.46% year - on - year in the week of May 23rd [2]. - From May 1st to May 28th, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 245,000 square meters, slightly lower than the 248,000 square meters in the same period in 2024 [2]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The growth of US personal consumption expenditure has slowed down, and the producer price index continues to decline. There are also data on various high - frequency indicators such as food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping, including their month - on - month and year - on - year changes [2][16][17]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - There are comparisons between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, the producer price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [20]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - There are data on US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, initial jobless claims and unemployment rates, same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year, as well as the Chicago Fed financial conditions index, and the implied prospects of the US federal funds futures for interest rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest rate hikes/cuts [80][82][84]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - It shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data for various indicators such as the average daily production of crude steel (decadal), producer price index, China's commodity price index, steel price index, 30 large and medium - sized cities' commercial housing trading area, LME copper spot settlement price, Brent crude oil futures settlement price, etc. [91][95][101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - It presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [144][146][148].