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商品期权周报:2025年第38周-20250921
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-21 12:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market remained at a low level this week, with the average daily trading volume and open interest decreasing by 11.80% and 11.10% respectively compared to the previous week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed trends, with 30 varieties closing lower. The varieties with higher weekly increases included industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and caustic soda; those with higher weekly decreases included red dates, live pigs, and soybean meal. Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. Some varieties' implied volatility is at a historical high, while others are at a historical low [2][16]. - The PCR of trading volume for some varieties is at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment; for others, it is at a historical low, showing a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The PCR of open interest for some varieties is at a historical high, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment; for others, it is at a historical low, showing accumulated bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - From September 15 to September 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.28 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.19 million lots, with环比 decreases of 11.80% and 11.10% respectively. The actively traded varieties included silver, eggs, and glass. The varieties with significant trading volume growth were p - xylene (+405%) and alumina (+141%); those with significant trading volume decline were crude oil (-80%), lithium carbonate (-71%), and urea (-60%). The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal, rebar, and soda ash. The varieties with rapid open - interest growth were p - xylene (+52%), apples (+38%), and alumina (+34%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options - **Underlying Price Movements**: The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed trends, with 30 varieties closing lower. The varieties with higher weekly increases included industrial silicon (+6.40%), lithium carbonate (+3.93%), and caustic soda (+3.16%); those with higher weekly decreases included red dates (-4.35%), live pigs (-3.24%), and soybean meal (-2.11%) [2][16]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 31 varieties' current implied volatility was below the 50% historical percentile in the past year. Varieties with implied volatility at a historical high included industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and ferrosilicon; those at a historical low included zinc, nickel, urea, and soybean and rapeseed meal [2][16]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The PCR of trading volume for styrene, cotton, LPG, and bottle chips was at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment. The PCR of trading volume for palm oil, caustic soda, iron ore, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil was at a historical low, showing a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The PCR of open interest for lithium carbonate, soda ash, and bottle chips was at a historical high, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment; for rebar, soybean oil, live pigs, and alumina, it was at a historical low, showing accumulated bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20]. - **Energy**: Relevant charts and data sources are provided for crude oil, including total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR [21][23][24]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [27][28][34]. - **Caustic Soda**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [36][37][38]. - **Glass**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [43][44][45]. - **Soda Ash**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [51][52][53]. - **Precious Metals**: Charts and data sources for silver's total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [58][59][60]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [66][67][69]. - **Silicomanganese**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [74][75][76]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [80][81][85]. - **Alumina**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [88][89][90]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean Meal**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [94][96][99]. - **Palm Oil**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [101][102][103]. - **Cotton**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [109][110][111].