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商品期权周报:2025年第42周-20251019
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 04:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (October 13 - October 17, 2025), the trading activity in the commodity options market declined slightly. The average daily trading volume was 6.55 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.33 million lots, with环比 changes of -4.94% and -3.47% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][6]. - Most underlying futures of commodity options fell this week, with precious metals and new - energy metals showing relatively high weekly gains, while some varieties like glass, crude oil, and fuel oil had significant weekly losses. The implied volatility of most commodity options increased this week. Different varieties have different implied volatility levels compared to the past year, presenting different trading opportunities. The options market sentiment varies among different varieties, with some showing strong short - term bearish sentiment and others showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment [2][15][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 6.55 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.33 million lots, with环比 changes of -4.94% and -3.47% respectively. Actively traded varieties included silver, polysilicon, and glass. Four varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, while some varieties like rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and ferrosilicon had significant trading volume declines. High - open - interest varieties were soybean meal, soda ash, and glass, and some varieties like p - xylene, LPG, and ethylene glycol had rapid open - interest growth [1][6]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - Most underlying futures of commodity options fell this week, with 44 varieties closing lower. Precious metals and new - energy metals had high weekly gains, such as gold (+10.90%), silver (+10.53%), polysilicon (+6.06%), and lithium carbonate (+3.95%); varieties with high weekly losses included glass (-9.28%), crude oil (-6.23%), and fuel oil (-5.54%) [2][15]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of most commodity options increased this week. Fourteen varieties' current implied volatility was above the 60th percentile of the past year. Varieties with high implied volatility included silver, gold, etc., and investors are advised to beware of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; varieties with low implied volatility included nickel, pulp, etc., where buying options had a relatively high cost - performance [2][15]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - For some varieties like eggs, soybean meal, etc., the trading volume PCR is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. For varieties like gold, polysilicon, etc., the trading volume PCR is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. For some varieties like silver, ferrosilicon, etc., the open - interest PCR is at a historical high, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment, while for varieties like urea, glass, etc., the open - interest PCR is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20]. 3.3.1 Energy - Key data of energy varieties such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, fuel oil, and natural rubber are presented, including price changes, implied volatility, implied volatility环比 changes, historical percentile of implied volatility, open - interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and expiration time of near - month options [17]. 3.3.2 Chemicals - **PTA**: Key data and related charts of PTA are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][28][29]. - **Caustic Soda**: Key data and related charts of caustic soda are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][38][39]. - **Glass**: Key data and related charts of glass are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: Key data and related charts of soda ash are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][53][54]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals - Key data and related charts of precious metals such as silver and gold are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][61][62]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Key data and related charts of iron ore are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][69][70]. - **Silicomanganese**: Key data and related charts of silicomanganese are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][78][79]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Key data and related charts of copper are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][86][87]. - **Aluminum**: Key data and related charts of aluminum are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][94][95]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Key data and related charts of soybean meal are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][100][102]. - **Palm Oil**: Key data and related charts of palm oil are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][107][108]. - **Cotton**: Key data and related charts of cotton are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][115][116].
商品期权周报:2025年第38周-20250921
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-21 12:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market remained at a low level this week, with the average daily trading volume and open interest decreasing by 11.80% and 11.10% respectively compared to the previous week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed trends, with 30 varieties closing lower. The varieties with higher weekly increases included industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and caustic soda; those with higher weekly decreases included red dates, live pigs, and soybean meal. Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. Some varieties' implied volatility is at a historical high, while others are at a historical low [2][16]. - The PCR of trading volume for some varieties is at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment; for others, it is at a historical low, showing a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The PCR of open interest for some varieties is at a historical high, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment; for others, it is at a historical low, showing accumulated bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - From September 15 to September 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.28 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.19 million lots, with环比 decreases of 11.80% and 11.10% respectively. The actively traded varieties included silver, eggs, and glass. The varieties with significant trading volume growth were p - xylene (+405%) and alumina (+141%); those with significant trading volume decline were crude oil (-80%), lithium carbonate (-71%), and urea (-60%). The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal, rebar, and soda ash. The varieties with rapid open - interest growth were p - xylene (+52%), apples (+38%), and alumina (+34%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options - **Underlying Price Movements**: The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed trends, with 30 varieties closing lower. The varieties with higher weekly increases included industrial silicon (+6.40%), lithium carbonate (+3.93%), and caustic soda (+3.16%); those with higher weekly decreases included red dates (-4.35%), live pigs (-3.24%), and soybean meal (-2.11%) [2][16]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 31 varieties' current implied volatility was below the 50% historical percentile in the past year. Varieties with implied volatility at a historical high included industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and ferrosilicon; those at a historical low included zinc, nickel, urea, and soybean and rapeseed meal [2][16]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The PCR of trading volume for styrene, cotton, LPG, and bottle chips was at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment. The PCR of trading volume for palm oil, caustic soda, iron ore, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil was at a historical low, showing a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The PCR of open interest for lithium carbonate, soda ash, and bottle chips was at a historical high, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment; for rebar, soybean oil, live pigs, and alumina, it was at a historical low, showing accumulated bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20]. - **Energy**: Relevant charts and data sources are provided for crude oil, including total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR [21][23][24]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [27][28][34]. - **Caustic Soda**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [36][37][38]. - **Glass**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [43][44][45]. - **Soda Ash**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [51][52][53]. - **Precious Metals**: Charts and data sources for silver's total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [58][59][60]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [66][67][69]. - **Silicomanganese**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [74][75][76]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [80][81][85]. - **Alumina**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [88][89][90]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean Meal**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [94][96][99]. - **Palm Oil**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [101][102][103]. - **Cotton**: Charts and data sources for total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are provided [109][110][111].