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商品期权周报:2025年第34周-20250824
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-24 14:15
周度报告——商品期权 商品期权周报:2025 年第 34 周 报告日期: 2025 年 8 月 24 日 ★ 商品期权市场活跃度 本周(2025.8.18-2025.8.22)商品期权市场活跃度较上周有所 回落,日均成交量为 646 万手,日均持仓量为 732 万手,环 比变化分别为-26.6%和-28.23%。分品种来看,本周日均成交 活跃的品种主要包括纯碱(59 万手)、玻璃(51 万手)、棕 榈油(40 万手)。此外,本周共有 3 个品种成交增长超过 100%, 成交量增长较为显著的品种为对二甲苯(+1327%)、合成橡 胶(+125%)、短纤(+122%)。与此同时,成交量下降较 为明显的品种则有菜粕(-85%)、菜油(-85%)、豆油(-72%)。 从持仓量数据来看,本周日均持仓量较高的品种为螺纹钢(63 万手)、纯碱(62 万手)和豆粕(60 万手)。日均持仓量环 比增长较为迅速的品种为对二甲苯(+188%)、合成橡胶 (+77%)、多晶硅(+50%)。建议投资者可重点关注交易 活跃品种可能存在的市场机会。 ★ 商品期权主要数据点评 标的涨跌情况:本周商品期权标的期货以下跌为主,共有 37 个品种 ...
商品期权周报:2025年第33周-20250817
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 14:16
Report Title - "Commodity Options Weekly Report: Week 33 of 2025" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The activity level of the commodity options market in the week from August 11 - 15, 2025, was basically flat compared to the previous week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively - traded varieties [2][9] - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance this week, with the energy - chemical and non - ferrous sectors mainly rising. Attention should be paid to risks and opportunities based on factors such as price fluctuations, implied volatility, and market sentiment [3][17][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume was 8.81 million lots, with a week - on - week increase of 4.19%, and the average daily open interest was 10.2 million lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 18.19% [2][5][9] - Actively - traded varieties in terms of average daily trading volume included glass (1.07 million lots), soda ash (1.06 million lots), and soybean meal (0.6 million lots) [2][5][9] - Five varieties had trading volume growth of over 100%, with significant growth in synthetic rubber (+362%), Shanghai tin (+265%), and apples (+108%). Meanwhile, polycrystalline silicon (-77%), industrial silicon (-66%), and urea (-53%) had obvious trading volume declines [2][9] - Varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (1.07 million lots), glass (0.96 million lots), and soda ash (0.87 million lots). Synthetic rubber (+58%), Shanghai tin (+37%), and p - xylene (+37%) had rapid week - on - week growth in average daily open interest [2][9] 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review 3.2.1 Underlying Price Fluctuations - There were 28 varieties with weekly gains, including lithium carbonate (+12.92%), palm oil (+5.11%), and soda ash (+4.73%); 23 varieties had weekly losses, including methanol (-2.55%), eggs (-2.30%), and logs (-1.87%) [3][17] 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodity options varieties rebounded this week, with 23 varieties having current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. High - implied - volatility varieties included corn starch, eggs, logs, etc., and short - volatility opportunities were recommended. Low - implied - volatility varieties included non - ferrous metals, precious metals, plastics, etc., where buying options had a higher cost - performance ratio [3][17] 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - Varieties such as p - xylene, bottle chips, and soybean meal had a high volume PCR, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. Glass, rubber, soda ash, and rapeseed oil had a low volume PCR, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment [3][18] - P - xylene, lithium carbonate, and soda ash had a high open - interest PCR, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment. Nickel, logs, sugar, and rubber had a low open - interest PCR, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [3][18] 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [22]
商品期权周报:2025年第32周-20250810
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 14:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The activity level in the commodity options market declined this week, with average daily trading volume at 8.45 million lots and average daily open interest at 12.46 million lots, showing a -18.47% and +8.45% change respectively compared to the previous period. Traders are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance this week, with the energy - chemical sector mostly falling and the non - ferrous sector mostly rising. There were 31 varieties with weekly gains and 20 with weekly losses. Some varieties' implied volatility continued to correct, and different trading strategies are recommended based on the implied volatility levels of different varieties. Also, the PCR values of different varieties indicate different market sentiment [2][18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8.45 million lots, a -18.47% change from the previous period, and the average daily open interest was 12.46 million lots, a +8.45% change. The actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume included glass (1.17 million lots), soda ash (1.08 million lots), and polysilicon (0.66 million lots). There were 3 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 50%, namely eggs (+67%), rapeseed meal (+55%), and LPG (+51%), while the trading volume of p - xylene (-99%) and red dates (-87%) decreased significantly. The varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (1.69 million lots), soda ash (1.43 million lots), and soybean meal (1.07 million lots). The varieties with a rapid increase in daily average open interest were eggs (+38%), synthetic rubber (+38%), and Shanghai tin (+37%) [1][8]. 3.2 This Week's Key Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance. The energy - chemical sector mostly fell, and the non - ferrous sector mostly rose. There were 31 varieties with weekly gains, with lithium carbonate (+11.15%), red dates (+5.68%), and apples (+4.11%) having relatively high weekly gains. There were 20 varieties with weekly losses, with crude oil (-7.22%), LPG (-4.82%), and caustic soda (-3.66%) having relatively high weekly losses [2][18]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodity options continued to correct this week. 33 varieties had their current implied volatility below the 50th percentile of the past year's historical data. Varieties with implied volatility at historical highs in the past year included ferrosilicon, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and rapeseed meal, and traders are advised to be cautious of one - sided risks and consider short - volatility opportunities. Varieties with implied volatility at historical lows in the past year included methanol, ethylene glycol, urea, and non - ferrous metals, where buying options had a relatively high cost - performance ratio [2][18]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of varieties such as p - xylene was at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment in the market, and attention should be paid to the risk of underlying price corrections. The trading volume PCR of gold, oils and fats, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and rubber was at a historical low, indicating concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of p - xylene and lithium carbonate was at a historical high, suggesting that bearish sentiment in the market had accumulated to a relatively high level. The open interest PCR of nickel, gold, zinc, methanol, urea, and LPG was at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment in the market [2][19]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter mainly presents key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23].
商品期权周报:2025年第27周-20250706
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity options market showed increased activity this week, with significant growth in both trading volume and open interest. Traders are advised to focus on actively - traded varieties for potential market opportunities [1][7]. - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options rose. Some commodities saw a significant increase in implied volatility, and different strategies are recommended based on high - and low - volatility varieties. The PCR indicators reflect different market sentiment for various commodities, and investors should pay attention to the corresponding risks [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - From June 28 to July 4, 2025, the average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.82 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.86 million lots, with a week - on - week increase of 31.43% and 14.86% respectively [1][7]. - Actively - traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume included industrial silicon (780,000 lots), glass (770,000 lots), and soda ash (750,000 lots). There were 8 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 100%, such as polysilicon (+332%), industrial silicon (+227%), and glass (+116%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were p - xylene (-96%), synthetic rubber (-70%), and tin (-61%) [1][7]. - In terms of open interest, the varieties with high average daily open interest were soda ash (1.1 million lots), glass (930,000 lots), and soybean meal (890,000 lots). The variety with a rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest was polysilicon (+121%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Movements**: Most underlying futures of commodity options rose this week. The varieties with high weekly increases were industrial silicon (+6.59%), caustic soda (+2.63%), and rebar (+2.57%), while the variety with a high decline was red dates (-2.34%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Affected by the "anti - involution", the implied volatility of some commodities increased significantly this week, but 39 varieties still had their current implied volatility below the historical 50th percentile. High - volatility varieties included industrial silicon, eggs, and red dates, and investors were advised to beware of one - sided risks and consider short - volatility opportunities. Low - volatility varieties included iron ore, rebar, and vegetable oils, and industrial customers could consider insurance strategies due to the low option - buying prices [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of varieties such as red dates was at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment and the need to pay attention to the risk of underlying price corrections. The trading volume PCR of nickel, methanol, ethylene glycol, and styrene was at a historical low, showing a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and cotton was at a historical high, indicating a high - level accumulated bearish sentiment, while the open interest PCR of copper, nickel, styrene, LPG, and soda ash was at a historical low, indicating an accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview This chapter mainly presents the key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data for more varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fancy Micro official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. 3.3.1 Energy No specific data analysis is provided in the text, only chart references are given, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [20][22][23]. 3.3.2 Chemicals - **PTA**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of PTA [27][28][35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of caustic soda [37][38][39]. - **Glass**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of glass [43][44][45]. - **Soda Ash**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soda ash [51][52][53]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [57][61][58]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of iron ore [64][65][70]. - **Silicomanganese**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silicomanganese [72][73][74]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of copper [80][81][85]. - **Alumina**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of alumina [88][89][91]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soybean meal [97][99]. - **Palm Oil**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of palm oil [103][104][105]. - **Cotton**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of cotton [111][112][113].
商品期权周报:2025年第24周-20250615
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 15:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (June 9 - June 13, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market was relatively stable, with the average daily trading volume at 6.04 million lots and the average daily open interest at 8.67 million lots, showing a month - on - month change of -3% and -10% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [2][7]. - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options rose, with 33 varieties closing up for the week. For market volatility, most commodity implied volatilities increased slightly. High - volatility varieties suggest attention to short - volatility opportunities, while low - volatility varieties indicate that industrial customers can consider insurance strategies. Regarding market sentiment, different varieties show varying degrees of bullish or bearish sentiment [3][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.04 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.67 million lots, with month - on - month changes of -3% and -10% respectively. Actively traded varieties included PTA, styrene, and soda ash. Three varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with styrene, LPG, and palm oil showing significant growth, while polysilicon and industrial silicon saw a sharp decline. High - open - interest varieties were soybean meal, soda ash, and glass, and varieties with rapid open - interest growth were styrene, silver, and LPG [2][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Futures Price Changes**: 33 varieties of underlying futures of commodity options closed up this week. High - gain varieties were crude oil (+13.69%), styrene (+7.94%), and LPG (+5.95%); high - loss varieties were soda ash (-4.62%), urea (-3.43%), and caustic soda (-3.08%) [3][13]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity implied volatilities increased slightly. 28 varieties had a month - on - month decline in implied volatility, and 33 varieties' current implied volatility was below the historical 50% quantile. High - volatility varieties included LPG, methanol, etc., and short - volatility opportunities were recommended; low - volatility varieties included vegetable oils, glass, etc., and industrial customers were advised to consider insurance strategies [3][13]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: Varieties such as industrial silicon, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and rubber had a high trading volume PCR at a historical level, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. Gold, silver, and methanol had a low trading volume PCR, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. Rapeseed meal, crude oil, cotton, and rebar had a high open - interest PCR at a historical level, accumulating bearish sentiment, while caustic soda, gold, and soda ash had a low open - interest PCR, accumulating bullish sentiment [3][13]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview The chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [17]. - **Energy**: Key data of energy varieties such as crude oil, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators, were presented [18]. - **Chemicals** - **PTA**: Data on trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment were provided [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: Similar key data for caustic soda were presented [34]. - **Glass**: Key data of glass were shown [40]. - **Soda Ash**: Key data of soda ash were provided [48]. - **Precious Metals**: Key data of precious metals such as silver, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators, were presented [55]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: Key data of iron ore were provided [61]. - **Silicomanganese**: Key data of silicomanganese were presented [69]. - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Key data of copper were provided [77]. - **Alumina**: Key data of alumina were presented [87]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean Meal**: Key data of soybean meal were provided [97]. - **Palm Oil**: Key data of palm oil were presented [104]. - **Cotton**: Key data of cotton were provided [113].
商品期权周报:2025年第23周-20250608
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-08 14:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading volume and open interest of the commodity options market increased this week, with daily average trading volume reaching 6.11 million lots and daily average open interest reaching 9.69 million lots, up 12% and 14% respectively from the previous week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - Most of the underlying futures of commodity options rose this week, with 34 varieties closing higher. High - gain varieties include silver, tin, and crude oil, while high - loss varieties include caustic soda, urea, and industrial silicon [2][15]. - Most commodity implied volatilities declined this week, with 42 varieties seeing a decline in implied volatility. High - volatility varieties include logs and plastics, while low - volatility varieties include vegetable oils, sugar, corn, and iron ore. Different trading strategies are recommended for different volatility levels [2][15]. - The trading volume PCR of some varieties is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment, while the trading volume PCR of others is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. Similar situations exist for the open interest PCR, reflecting the accumulation of bullish or bearish sentiment in the market [2][15]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The trading volume and open interest of the commodity options market increased this week. Actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume include PTA, industrial silicon, and glass. Varieties with significant trading volume growth are rapeseed oil and polysilicon, while those with significant declines are p - xylene and gold. High - open - interest varieties include soybean meal, soda ash, and glass, and varieties with rapid open - interest growth are tin, synthetic rubber, and nickel [1][8]. 3.2 Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Movements**: 34 varieties of underlying futures of commodity options closed higher this week. High - gain varieties are silver (+7.69%), tin (+5.31%), and crude oil (+4.06%), while high - loss varieties are caustic soda (-4.93%), urea (-2.99%), and industrial silicon (-2.42%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity implied volatilities declined, with 42 varieties having a decline in implied volatility and 33 varieties having their current implied volatility below the historical 50% quantile. High - volatility varieties include logs and plastics, and low - volatility varieties include vegetable oils, sugar, corn, and iron ore [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and rubber is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of silver, copper, and styrene is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ethylene glycol, cotton, and rebar is at a historical high, indicating high - level bearish sentiment, while that of styrene, caustic soda, rubber, gold, glass, and soda ash is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. - **Energy**: Key data of energy varieties such as crude oil are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [20]. - **Chemicals**: Key data of chemical varieties such as PTA, caustic soda, glass, and soda ash are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [25][34][42][48]. - **Precious Metals**: Key data of precious metal varieties such as silver are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [55]. - **Ferrous Metals**: Key data of ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore and manganese silicon are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [61][69]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Key data of non - ferrous metal varieties such as copper and alumina are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [77][85]. - **Agricultural Products**: Key data of agricultural product varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and cotton are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [94][102][116].
商品期权周报:2025年第20周-20250525
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 14:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 19 - May 23, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market declined, with an average daily trading volume of 5.91 million lots and an average daily open interest of 8.29 million lots, showing a -11% and +10% change respectively compared to the previous period. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance, with most chemical and non - ferrous metals declining, and 37 varieties closing higher for the week. Many varieties' implied volatility continued to decline, and the trading and open - interest PCR of some varieties indicated strong short - term bullish or bearish sentiment [2][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week, the average daily trading volume of actively traded varieties included styrene (750,000 lots), alumina (740,000 lots), and silver (360,000 lots). Alumina had a significant trading volume increase of +165%, while polysilicon decreased by -69% [1][8]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (790,000 lots), soda ash (490,000 lots), and glass (480,000 lots). Alumina's open interest increased by +107% [1][8]. 3.2 Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Changes**: This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance. The varieties with high weekly gains were alumina (+9.65%), gold (+3.76%), and silver (+2.00%); those with high losses were synthetic rubber (-3.96%), LPG (-3.63%), and ferrosilicon (-3.37%) [2][16]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity implied volatilities continued to decline this week, with 39 varieties showing a decline in implied volatility. High - volatility varieties include gold, and low - volatility varieties include oilseeds, rebar, and iron ore [2][16]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of some varieties such as p - xylene, LPG, and polypropylene is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of glass and rubber is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20].