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商品期权周报:2025年第34周-20250824
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-24 14:15
周度报告——商品期权 商品期权周报:2025 年第 34 周 报告日期: 2025 年 8 月 24 日 ★ 商品期权市场活跃度 本周(2025.8.18-2025.8.22)商品期权市场活跃度较上周有所 回落,日均成交量为 646 万手,日均持仓量为 732 万手,环 比变化分别为-26.6%和-28.23%。分品种来看,本周日均成交 活跃的品种主要包括纯碱(59 万手)、玻璃(51 万手)、棕 榈油(40 万手)。此外,本周共有 3 个品种成交增长超过 100%, 成交量增长较为显著的品种为对二甲苯(+1327%)、合成橡 胶(+125%)、短纤(+122%)。与此同时,成交量下降较 为明显的品种则有菜粕(-85%)、菜油(-85%)、豆油(-72%)。 从持仓量数据来看,本周日均持仓量较高的品种为螺纹钢(63 万手)、纯碱(62 万手)和豆粕(60 万手)。日均持仓量环 比增长较为迅速的品种为对二甲苯(+188%)、合成橡胶 (+77%)、多晶硅(+50%)。建议投资者可重点关注交易 活跃品种可能存在的市场机会。 ★ 商品期权主要数据点评 标的涨跌情况:本周商品期权标的期货以下跌为主,共有 37 个品种 ...
期权Greeks(一):基于Delta、Gamma、Theta精细化管理方向性期权策略
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 05:16
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In recent years, the Chinese commodity options market has witnessed explosive growth, with continuous enrichment of trading varieties and a significant increase in trading volume. The market participant structure shows a significant institutionalization trend, and investment strategies vary among different participants. Market volatility characteristics have also changed profoundly, posing challenges to traditional options strategies. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize options strategies. This report focuses on Delta, Gamma, and Theta among the option Greeks, elaborating on their meanings, characteristics, and how to optimize directional options strategies based on them from four dimensions: opening positions, adjusting positions, taking profits, and setting stop - losses [1][12][16][21]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Necessity of Optimizing Options Strategies - The Chinese commodity options market has achieved explosive growth. From a product layout perspective, it has formed a complete product system covering 55 varieties, with a target coverage rate exceeding 70%. In terms of market scale, the annual compound growth rate of on - exchange commodity options trading volume from 2017 - 2023 was as high as 117%, and the off - exchange market also maintained an average annual growth rate of 77.68% in the past five years [12]. - The options market participant structure shows significant institutionalization. In the Shanghai Stock Exchange options market, the proportion of individual investors has been decreasing year by year, and in 2024, institutional investors accounted for 68.29%. Individual and institutional investors have different investment strategies, with individuals preferring to buy to open positions for directional gains and institutions mainly selling to open positions [16]. - Market volatility characteristics have changed. Major macro - events have led to an increase in the volatility center, and the popularity of algorithmic trading has made the market microstructure more complex. Traditional options strategies relying solely on directional judgments or fixed parameters may not adapt to the new environment [16][21]. 2. Meanings and Characteristics of Delta, Gamma, and Theta 2.1 Delta: Current Earning Speed - Delta measures the first - order sensitivity of the option price to the underlying price. It is affected by the moneyness (S/K), time to maturity (T), and volatility (σ). In the Black - Scholes framework, the Delta of a call option can be regarded as the risk - neutral probability of the underlying asset being in - the - money at maturity, while the absolute value of the Delta of a put option corresponds to the probability of the underlying being below the strike price at maturity [24]. - The moneyness has a core impact on Delta. The Delta of a call option increases monotonically from 0 to 1 as the underlying asset price rises, while that of a put option increases monotonically from - 1 to 0, showing an S - shaped curve [25]. - The impact of time to maturity on Delta is non - linear. For in - the - money and out - of - the - money options, the Delta of deep in - the - money options converges to 1 as time decreases, and that of deep out - of - the - money options decays to 0. For at - the - money options, the Delta becomes more sensitive to underlying price changes as the expiration date approaches [28]. - The impact of implied volatility on Delta is dynamic and non - monotonic. For in - the - money and out - of - the - money options, the impact is asymmetric. For at - the - money options, an increase in implied volatility causes the Delta to converge to 0.5 [30]. 2.2 Gamma: Future Earning Acceleration - Gamma measures the second - order sensitivity of the option price to the underlying price, indicating the change rate of Delta. It is affected by the moneyness (S/K), time to maturity (T), and volatility (σ) [34]. - The moneyness has a significant impact on Gamma. Gamma shows a bell - shaped curve distribution. The Gamma values of deep in - the - money and deep out - of - the - money options are close to zero, while the Gamma of at - the - money options reaches its peak [35]. - The impact of time to maturity on Gamma is non - linear. For at - the - money options, Gamma increases rapidly as the expiration date approaches, especially in the last 1 - 5 trading days. For deep in - the - money or out - of - the - money options, Gamma remains close to zero and is less affected by the remaining term [42]. - The impact of implied volatility on Gamma is significant for at - the - money options, showing a negative correlation. High implied volatility weakens the timeliness requirement of Gamma hedging, while low implied volatility increases the urgency of Gamma hedging [45]. 2.3 Theta: Cost for Option Buyers - Theta measures the first - order sensitivity of the option price to time, representing the decay rate of the option's time value. It is usually negative and is affected by the time to maturity, moneyness, and implied volatility [49]. - The impact of time to maturity on Theta is non - linear. For at - the - money options, Theta shows an "acceleration effect", with the time value decaying non - linearly faster as the expiration date approaches. For deep in - the - money or out - of - the - money options, Theta is less sensitive to the change in the remaining time [51]. - The moneyness has a significant impact on Theta. The absolute value of Theta shows an inverted U - shaped distribution, with the at - the - money options having the largest absolute value of Theta [54]. - The impact of implied volatility on Theta is non - linear. An increase in implied volatility leads to an increase in the absolute value of Theta for at - the - money options, while the impact on out - of - the - money and deep in - the - money options is relatively small [57]. 3. Optimizing Directional Options Strategies Based on Delta, Gamma, and Theta 3.1 Opening Positions - When constructing an option buyer strategy, the choice of strike price is crucial. Different moneyness options have different risk - return characteristics. Investors should choose according to the expected trend of the underlying asset. For short - term sharp rises, at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money options may be better; for long - term steady upward trends, in - the - money options may be more advantageous [61]. - When evaluating the cost - effectiveness of strike price selection, the historical percentile of implied volatility should be considered. In a high implied volatility environment, out - of - the - money options show better cost - effectiveness [62]. - The remaining time to maturity also affects the option value. For short - term trading, options with a remaining maturity of less than 1 month are suitable; for medium - and long - term layouts, in - the - money options can better control time value decay [68]. - The current on - exchange commodity options market in China has a single contract term structure. The launch of short - term options provides more strategy options, such as the calendar spread strategy [69][71]. 3.2 Adjusting Positions - "Chasing to buy": When implementing a call option buying strategy, as the underlying price rises, the option position moves from out - of - the - money to in - the - money. By adjusting the position to out - of - the - money options, it can balance the locking of profits and risk control [76]. - "Chasing to sell": When implementing a put option selling strategy, as the underlying price rises, the option becomes more out - of - the - money. By adjusting the position from deep out - of - the - money to slightly out - of - the - money options, it can increase the profit space, but it also requires strict risk management [77]. 3.3 Taking Profits - For put option selling, the core of taking profits is to balance the realized time value gain and potential risk. Time value decay take - profit is a basic strategy, and the implied volatility should also be considered [84]. - For call option buying, taking profits based on the target price of the underlying and technical analysis is a basic strategy. The implied volatility should also be monitored, especially in event - driven trading [88]. 3.4 Setting Stop - Losses - For call option buying, the key to risk management is to control the scale of the premium at the beginning, as the maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. - For put option selling, pre - investment and in - investment risk control and stop - loss strategies are crucial. This includes position size management, contract screening, dynamic management of Greek letters, and sensitivity analysis and stress testing. In the investment process, a dynamic protection system should be established, including price trigger mechanisms, implied volatility monitoring, and dynamic hedging of Greek letter risks [92]. 4. Characteristics of Greek Letters of Common Options Combinations Option combination strategy investors should manage the multi - factor risk exposure of their positions before opening positions and during the holding period, as some Greek letters of option combination strategies may be overlooked [4].
商品期权周报:2025年第33周-20250817
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 14:16
Report Title - "Commodity Options Weekly Report: Week 33 of 2025" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The activity level of the commodity options market in the week from August 11 - 15, 2025, was basically flat compared to the previous week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively - traded varieties [2][9] - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance this week, with the energy - chemical and non - ferrous sectors mainly rising. Attention should be paid to risks and opportunities based on factors such as price fluctuations, implied volatility, and market sentiment [3][17][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume was 8.81 million lots, with a week - on - week increase of 4.19%, and the average daily open interest was 10.2 million lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 18.19% [2][5][9] - Actively - traded varieties in terms of average daily trading volume included glass (1.07 million lots), soda ash (1.06 million lots), and soybean meal (0.6 million lots) [2][5][9] - Five varieties had trading volume growth of over 100%, with significant growth in synthetic rubber (+362%), Shanghai tin (+265%), and apples (+108%). Meanwhile, polycrystalline silicon (-77%), industrial silicon (-66%), and urea (-53%) had obvious trading volume declines [2][9] - Varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (1.07 million lots), glass (0.96 million lots), and soda ash (0.87 million lots). Synthetic rubber (+58%), Shanghai tin (+37%), and p - xylene (+37%) had rapid week - on - week growth in average daily open interest [2][9] 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review 3.2.1 Underlying Price Fluctuations - There were 28 varieties with weekly gains, including lithium carbonate (+12.92%), palm oil (+5.11%), and soda ash (+4.73%); 23 varieties had weekly losses, including methanol (-2.55%), eggs (-2.30%), and logs (-1.87%) [3][17] 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodity options varieties rebounded this week, with 23 varieties having current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. High - implied - volatility varieties included corn starch, eggs, logs, etc., and short - volatility opportunities were recommended. Low - implied - volatility varieties included non - ferrous metals, precious metals, plastics, etc., where buying options had a higher cost - performance ratio [3][17] 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - Varieties such as p - xylene, bottle chips, and soybean meal had a high volume PCR, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. Glass, rubber, soda ash, and rapeseed oil had a low volume PCR, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment [3][18] - P - xylene, lithium carbonate, and soda ash had a high open - interest PCR, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment. Nickel, logs, sugar, and rubber had a low open - interest PCR, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [3][18] 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [22]
商品期权日报 0815:商品期权成交量 634 万张,玉米期权 IV 上升 5.86%-20250815
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 11:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of commodity options reached 6.34 million contracts. Some varieties had relatively large trading volumes, such as soybean meal options with 670,000 contracts, palm oil options with 580,000 contracts, and soda ash options with 430,000 contracts. In terms of open interest, soybean meal options exceeded 1.09 million contracts, and rebar options exceeded 550,000 contracts. Regarding the trading volume PCR, some varieties deviated significantly, presenting trading opportunities but also liquidity risks [1][3]. - In the agricultural product sector, the IV of corn options rose by 5.86%, while that of egg options fell by 4.88%. In the energy and chemical sector, the IV of caustic soda options increased by 3.06%, and that of lithium carbonate options decreased by 4.47%. In the metal sector, the IV of each variety showed mixed trends, with the IV of Shanghai silver options dropping by 0.69% [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Quick View 3.1.1. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The report provides detailed trading volume and open - interest data for various commodity options, including information on the underlying asset's closing price, price change, option trading volume, call and put trading volumes, option open interest, call and put open interests, and trading volume and open - interest PCR for each variety [5]. 3.1.2. Volatility - The report presents the implied volatility (IV) data of various commodity options, including the flat - strike IV, IV change in absolute value, historical volatility (30 - day, 60 - day, and 90 - day), and the difference between implied and historical volatility (IV - HV) for each variety [11]. 3.2. Variety Research 3.2.1. Soybean Meal Options - The report includes charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, recent one - month IV trend, and recent one - month implied - historical volatility difference trend for soybean meal options [13]. 3.2.2. Rapeseed Meal Options - It provides charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, recent one - month IV trend, and recent one - month implied - historical volatility difference trend for rapeseed meal options [17]. 3.2.3. PTA Options - The report contains charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, recent one - month IV trend, and recent one - month implied - historical volatility difference trend for PTA options [21]. 3.2.4. Methanol Options - It offers charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, recent one - month IV trend, and recent one - month implied - historical volatility difference trend for methanol options [23]. 3.2.5. Sugar Options - The report includes charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, recent one - month IV trend, and recent one - month implied - historical volatility difference trend for sugar options [26]. 3.2.6. Soda Ash Options - It provides charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, recent one - month IV trend, and recent one - month implied - historical volatility difference trend for soda ash options [31]. 3.2.7. Iron Ore Options - The report contains charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, recent one - month IV trend, and recent one - month implied - historical volatility difference trend for iron ore options [35]. 3.2.8. Shanghai Silver Options - It offers charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, recent one - month IV trend, and recent one - month implied - historical volatility difference trend for Shanghai silver options [38]. 3.2.9. Rebar Options - The report includes charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, recent one - month IV trend, and recent one - month implied - historical volatility difference trend for rebar options [42].
商品期权数据日报-20250814
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 07:36
Report Title - The report is titled "Commodity Option Data Daily Report" [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents historical volatility, daily fluctuations, and other data of various commodities, and recommends option trading strategies based on the relative levels of commodity volatility [2][4][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Commodity Volatility Data - **Historical Volatility and Daily Fluctuations**: Data on historical volatility (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) and daily price fluctuations of multiple commodities such as Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Copper, and Shanghai Zinc are provided For example, Shanghai Aluminum's main price is 20790 with a 0.63% daily increase, and its HV20 is 7.71% [4] Implied Volatility Data - **主力平值IV and Its Quantile**: Implied volatility data, including the main at - the - money implied volatility (IV) and its quantile, are given for various commodities For instance, the main at - the - money IV of butadiene rubber is 74% with a quantile of 49% [5] Strategy Recommendations - **Selling Strangle for Lithium Carbonate**: Due to the relatively high volatility of lithium carbonate, it is recommended to sell a strangle combination (sell LC2509C80000 + sell LC2509P75000) on July 24, 2025, and use dynamic futures hedging, then close the position when volatility decreases [9] - **Buying Strangle for Iron Ore, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Given the relatively low volatility of iron ore, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, it is recommended to buy strangle combinations for these commodities on June 3, 2025, use dynamic futures hedging, and close the position when volatility increases For example, for iron ore, buy I2509C690 + buy I2509P700 [9]
商品期权数据日报-20250813
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 03:55
商品期权数据日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 | | | | | | | | 历史波动率 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标的 | 主力价格 | 涨跌幅 | 当大波动 | HV20 | HV40 | HV60 | HV120 | 标的 | 主力价格 | 涨跌幅 | 当大波动 | HV20 | HV40 | HV60 | HV120 | | 沪铝 | 20735 | 0 29% | 12. 05% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 11% | PVC | 5047 | 0. 88% | 25. 62% | 29% | 23% | 20% | 18% | | 护铜 | 79020 | 01 13% | 7. 52% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 16% | 用量 | 2391 | 0. 25% | 16. 86% | 25% | 24% | 23% | 23% | | 沪锌 ...
商品期权周报:2025年第32周-20250810
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 14:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The activity level in the commodity options market declined this week, with average daily trading volume at 8.45 million lots and average daily open interest at 12.46 million lots, showing a -18.47% and +8.45% change respectively compared to the previous period. Traders are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance this week, with the energy - chemical sector mostly falling and the non - ferrous sector mostly rising. There were 31 varieties with weekly gains and 20 with weekly losses. Some varieties' implied volatility continued to correct, and different trading strategies are recommended based on the implied volatility levels of different varieties. Also, the PCR values of different varieties indicate different market sentiment [2][18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8.45 million lots, a -18.47% change from the previous period, and the average daily open interest was 12.46 million lots, a +8.45% change. The actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume included glass (1.17 million lots), soda ash (1.08 million lots), and polysilicon (0.66 million lots). There were 3 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 50%, namely eggs (+67%), rapeseed meal (+55%), and LPG (+51%), while the trading volume of p - xylene (-99%) and red dates (-87%) decreased significantly. The varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (1.69 million lots), soda ash (1.43 million lots), and soybean meal (1.07 million lots). The varieties with a rapid increase in daily average open interest were eggs (+38%), synthetic rubber (+38%), and Shanghai tin (+37%) [1][8]. 3.2 This Week's Key Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance. The energy - chemical sector mostly fell, and the non - ferrous sector mostly rose. There were 31 varieties with weekly gains, with lithium carbonate (+11.15%), red dates (+5.68%), and apples (+4.11%) having relatively high weekly gains. There were 20 varieties with weekly losses, with crude oil (-7.22%), LPG (-4.82%), and caustic soda (-3.66%) having relatively high weekly losses [2][18]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodity options continued to correct this week. 33 varieties had their current implied volatility below the 50th percentile of the past year's historical data. Varieties with implied volatility at historical highs in the past year included ferrosilicon, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and rapeseed meal, and traders are advised to be cautious of one - sided risks and consider short - volatility opportunities. Varieties with implied volatility at historical lows in the past year included methanol, ethylene glycol, urea, and non - ferrous metals, where buying options had a relatively high cost - performance ratio [2][18]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of varieties such as p - xylene was at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment in the market, and attention should be paid to the risk of underlying price corrections. The trading volume PCR of gold, oils and fats, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and rubber was at a historical low, indicating concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of p - xylene and lithium carbonate was at a historical high, suggesting that bearish sentiment in the market had accumulated to a relatively high level. The open interest PCR of nickel, gold, zinc, methanol, urea, and LPG was at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment in the market [2][19]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter mainly presents key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23].
波动率数据日报-20250807
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 05:08
Group 1: Volatility Index Explanation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [2] Group 2: Volatility Data Graphs - There are graphs showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences of various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, silver, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, crude oil, copper, aluminum, PVC, rebar, zinc, urea, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [4] - The implied volatility and historical volatility quantile rankings of various commodities such as PVC, PTA, iron ore, cotton, 50ETF, 300 - stock index are presented, with specific quantile values provided [5]
商品期权周报:2025年第31周-20250803
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 14:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity options market remained highly active this week, with an average daily trading volume of 10.36 million lots and an average daily open interest of 11.49 million lots, showing a -11.14% and +12.58% change respectively. Traders are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively - traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options pulled back, with 44 varieties closing lower. High - volatility risks should be noted, and short - selling volatility opportunities are recommended. Attention should also be paid to the callback risks of underlying prices and the accumulation of bullish or bearish sentiment in different varieties [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 10.36 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 11.49 million lots, with a -11.14% and +12.58% change respectively. The market speculation degree was relatively high [1][8]. - Actively - traded varieties in terms of average daily trading volume included glass (1.73 million lots), soda ash (1.3 million lots), and polysilicon (0.88 million lots). Varieties with significant trading volume growth were p - xylene (+158%), red dates (+157%), and apples (+144%), while those with significant declines were tin (-88%) and synthetic rubber (-85%) [1][8]. - Varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (1.24 million lots), soda ash (1.2 million lots), and soybean meal (1.03 million lots). Varieties with rapid open - interest growth were ferrosilicon (+68%) and LPG (+60%) [1][8]. 3.2 Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options pulled back, with 44 varieties closing lower. Varieties with high weekly declines included glass (-19.09%), lithium carbonate (-14.41%), soda ash (-12.78%), and industrial silicon (-12.60%) [2][17]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of commodity options declined from a high level this week. 34 varieties' current implied volatility was below the 50% percentile of the past - year history. Varieties with high implied volatility included polysilicon, lithium carbonate, ferrosilicon, and industrial silicon [2][17]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The volume PCR of varieties such as staple fiber, copper, and p - xylene was at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The volume PCR of gold, oilseeds, and synthetic rubber was at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment [2][17]. - The open - interest PCR of polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and soda ash was at a historical high, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment. The open - interest PCR of nickel, LPG, and rubber was at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][17]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [21].
波动率数据日报-20250729
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 03:22
Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial options implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The commodity options implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IVs of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher than HV, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower than HV [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Difference Graphs - There are multiple graphs showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options such as 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options like soybean meal, corn, cotton, rubber, methanol, iron ore, copper, PTA, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, etc. [4][5][6] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - The implied volatility quantile represents the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means the current implied volatility is low [13] - The volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility. There are rankings of implied volatility quantiles and historical volatility quantiles for different varieties such as Tianjin, PVC, PTA, methanol, etc. [13][14]