周度报告——商品期权 商品期权周报：2025 年第 47 周 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 23 日 ★ 商品期权市场活跃度 本周（2025.11.17-2025.11.21）商品期权市场成交小幅反弹， 日均成交量为 854 万手，日均持仓量为 1019 万手，环比变化 分别为+10.09%和-0.74%。分品种来看，本周日均成交活跃的 品种主要包括白银（109 万手）、碳酸锂（81 万手）、玻璃 （59 万手）。此外，本周共有 4 个品种成交增长超过 100%， 成交量增长较为显著的品种为合成橡胶（+138%）、对二甲 苯（+121%）、碳酸锂（+120%）、工业硅（109%）。与此 同时，成交量下降较为明显的品种则有原油（-57%）、烧碱 （-52%）和 PTA（-42%）。从持仓量数据来看，本周日均持 仓量较高的品种为玻璃（96 万手）、豆粕（82 万手）和纯碱 （81 万手）。日均持仓量环比增长较为迅速的品种为合工业 硅（+49%）、对二甲苯（+42%）、碳酸锂（+40%）。建议 投资者可重点关注交易活跃品种可能存在的市场机会。 ★ 商品期权主要数据点评 标的涨跌情况：本周商品期权标的期货以下跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market rebounded slightly this week. The average daily trading volume was 7.75 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 10.26 million lots, with a week - on - week change of +6.85% and +2.72% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][6]. - Most of the underlying futures of commodity options rose this week. The varieties with higher weekly increases include silver (+7.54%), lithium carbonate (+6.15%), and apple (+5.86%); the varieties with higher weekly decreases include glass (-5.41%), eggs (-4.60%), and red dates (-4.17%) [2][14]. - This week, the implied volatility of most commodity options in each sector increased on a weekly basis. For varieties with implied volatility at a high level in the past year, investors should be vigilant against unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; for varieties with implied volatility at a low level, the cost - performance of buying options is relatively high [2][14]. - Different varieties show different market sentiment in terms of trading volume PCR and open interest PCR, reflecting the market's expectations of rising or falling [2][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - This week, the average daily trading volume of actively traded varieties mainly includes silver (700,000 lots), glass (680,000 lots), and soda ash (520,000 lots). The varieties with significant trading volume growth are tin (+268%), LPG (+126%), and alumina (+122%); the varieties with obvious trading volume decline are polysilicon (-61%), industrial silicon (-61%), and lithium carbonate (-40%) [1][6]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest this week are glass (1 million lots), soybean meal (870,000 lots), and soda ash (810,000 lots). The varieties with rapid week - on - week growth in average daily open interest are p - xylene (+54%), styrene (+42%), and asphalt (+41%) [1][6]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options - **Underlying price changes**: The underlying futures of commodity options mainly rose this week. The varieties with high weekly increases include silver (+7.54%), lithium carbonate (+6.15%), and apple (+5.86%); the varieties with high weekly decreases include glass (-5.41%), eggs (-4.60%), and red dates (-4.17%) [2][14]. - **Market volatility**: Most sectors' commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 21 varieties' current implied volatility is above the 50% quantile of the past year. Varieties with implied volatility at a high level in the past year include silver, methanol, asphalt, apple, and gold; varieties with implied volatility at a low level include ferromanganese, alumina, rubber, and corn [2][14]. - **Option market sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of pulp, ferrosilicon, and cotton is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the trading volume PCR of gold, aluminum, lead, and PTA is at a low level in the past year, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase. The open interest PCR of silver, p - xylene, lithium carbonate, and soybean meal is at a historical high, showing a high level of bearish sentiment; the open interest PCR of methanol, plastic, urea, and palm oil is at a low level in the past year, showing a bullish sentiment [2][14]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter mainly shows the key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be found on the Dongzheng Fanci website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. - **Energy**: Data on option total turnover, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil, LPG, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. are presented [15][20]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Data on option total turnover, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [15][27]. - **Caustic soda**: Similar data for caustic soda are shown [15][36]. - **Glass**: Data related to glass options are presented [15][42]. - **Soda ash**: Key data of soda ash options are provided [15][48]. - **Precious metals**: Data on option total turnover, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver are shown [15][54]. - **Ferrous metals**: - **Iron ore**: Data related to iron ore options are presented [15][61]. - **Ferromanganese**: Similar data for ferromanganese are provided [15][69]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: - **Copper**: Data on copper options are shown [15][75]. - **Aluminum**: Key data of aluminum options are provided [15][84]. - **Agricultural products**: - **Soybean meal**: Data related to soybean meal options are presented [15][90]. - **Palm oil**: Similar data for palm oil are provided [15][97]. - **Cotton**: Key data of cotton options are shown [15][105].

Core Insights - Liu Lin achieved the fifth place in the lightweight group of the 19th National Futures (Options) Live Trading Competition, showcasing a unique trading style and robust risk management [1] Group 1: Trading Strategy - Liu Lin focuses on popular trading products such as polysilicon, CSI 1000, and gold, believing that identifying leading products and trends increases the probability of profit [2] - His trading strategy is primarily based on market volatility, emphasizing that as long as there is market fluctuation, there is room for options trading [2] - Liu Lin employs an intraday short-term strategy, primarily engaging in buying positions and avoiding overnight trades, aligning his strategy with his personal trading style [2][3] Group 2: Risk Management - Liu Lin's trading career began with ETF options, and he transitioned to commodity options after experiencing a lack of market activity, accumulating about one year of trading experience [3] - He emphasizes the importance of strict position management and timely stop-loss measures to control drawdowns, which he views as essential for long-term success [3] - His trading philosophy includes a short holding period and profiting from volatility, with a strong focus on the necessity of stop-loss strategies to prevent significant losses [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Liu Lin views his competition results as a new starting point and plans to further optimize his intraday short-term strategy while monitoring potential market opportunities from 2025 to 2026 [4] - He highlights the significance of policy changes and market sentiment fluctuations as key factors that will create more trading opportunities [4] - Liu Lin advises traders to experiment with various strategies to find their personal trading style and to prioritize profit-taking to build trading confidence [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market rebounded slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 7.22 million lots and an average daily open interest of 10.01 million lots, showing a week - on - week change of +13.63% and +17.96% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance in terms of price changes. There are opportunities in varieties with high trading activity, and attention should be paid to the risks and opportunities indicated by factors such as price fluctuations, implied volatility, and option market sentiment [1][2][15]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week, the average daily actively - traded varieties included glass (650,000 lots), lithium carbonate (610,000 lots), and polysilicon (520,000 lots). Five varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with asphalt (+161%), ethylene glycol (+158%), and urea (+156%) showing significant growth. The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were p - xylene (-83%), log (-58%), and alumina (-47%) [1][7]. - The varieties with a relatively high average daily open interest were glass (1.05 million lots), soda ash (870,000 lots), and glass (840,000 lots). The varieties with a relatively rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest were synthetic rubber (+83%), styrene (+66%), and LPG (+51%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Changes**: The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed price changes. The varieties with high weekly increases included rapeseed meal (+6.32%), pulp (+3.49%), and urea (+2.58%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included asphalt (-6.04%), polysilicon (-5.66%), and red dates (-5.47%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity option implied volatilities in various sectors decreased this week. Seventeen varieties had their current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. Varieties with implied volatility at a high level in the past year included live pigs, methanol, and asphalt; those at a low level included sugar, tin, cotton, and manganese silicon [2][15]. - **Option Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of varieties such as apples, eggs, lithium carbonate, LPG, and cotton was at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of aluminum, ethylene glycol, and corn was at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ferrosilicon, soybean meal, silver, and lithium carbonate was at a historical high, while that of aluminum, corn, methanol, palm oil, and plastic was at a historical low [2][15]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview - The chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20]. - Specific sub - sections cover energy (crude oil, LPG, etc.), chemicals (PTA, caustic soda, glass, soda ash), precious metals (silver), ferrous metals (iron ore, manganese silicon), non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum), and agricultural products (soybean meal, palm oil, cotton), with corresponding data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR provided [21][28][59][66][82][97].

波动率数据日报 永安期货期权总部 更新时间: 2025/11/7 、隐含波动率指数、历史波动率及其价差走势图 0. 90 494 0.67 300 级 指 orea 45 0.64 PTA 0.54 PTA 0 55 五米 0.58 300股指 0.32 50ETE 0.51 50ETF 0.30 天峻 0.41 五米 0.18 上指 0.35 天峻 0.17 PVC 038 7 14 0.12 日時 0.27 8.4 6 0.10 45 PVC 0.30 0.02 铁右右 0.21 炸花 0.00 白练 神花 0.18 0 03 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 05 0.8 1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 01 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0 a 1 免费声明:本文所有内得均不符成改造仪、对文中信息的准确推料免费性不作任何保证，使用学习交流。技资录像此作出的任何投资决策与产企司无关、授权仪为我 公司所有、未来书面许可。任何扎格和个人不得以世同形式相談、提到发布。如引用、代度、规控班出处为水安和货公司、且不得进行存择原置的引用、量市和谐政。 0.82 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Options Data Daily Report [4] - Date: November 5, 2025 [5] - Data Sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [7] Group 2: Underlying Asset Information Price and Daily Fluctuation - Furnace Aluminum: Price at 21,465, down 0.07%, with a daily fluctuation of 17.97% [5] - Shanghai Copper: Price at 85,740, down 1.54%, with a daily fluctuation of 36.69% [5] - Shanghai Zinc: Price at 22,670, up 0.82%, with a daily fluctuation of 17.35% [5] - Shanghai Gold: Price at 915.58, down 0.50%, with a daily fluctuation of 24.17% [5] - Rubber: Price at 14,875, down 1.42%, with a daily fluctuation of 33.50% [5] - Sugar: Price at 5,481, up 0.04%, with a daily fluctuation of 9.94% [5] - Corn: Price at 2,135, down 0.05%, with a daily fluctuation of 9.75% [5] - Rapeseed Meal: Price at 2,497, up 1.55%, with a daily fluctuation of 19.98% [5] - Soybean Meal: Price at 3,015, down 0.69%, with a daily fluctuation of 18.59% [5] - Palm Oil: Price at 8,616, down 0.85%, with a daily fluctuation of 26.06% [5] - Zhengzhou Cotton: Price at 13,535, down 0.40%, with a daily fluctuation of 12.45% [5] - Polypropylene: Price at 6,560, down 0.65%, with a daily fluctuation of 11.00% [5] - LPG: Price at 4,243, down 1.44%, with a daily fluctuation of 27.20% [5] - PTA: Price at 4,604, down 0.04%, with a daily fluctuation of 18.21% [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Price at 3,901, down 2.48%, with a daily fluctuation of 29.18% [5] - Styrene: Price at 6,354, down 1.99%, with a daily fluctuation of 34.17% [5] - Urea: Price at 1,630, up 0.80%, with a daily fluctuation of 22.79% [5] - Apple: Price at 8,861, down 2.63%, with a daily fluctuation of 54.89% [5] - Manganese Silicon: Price at 5,754, down 0.72%, with a daily fluctuation of 13.37% [5] - Soda Ash: Price at 1,189, down 1.74%, with a daily fluctuation of 21.59% [5] - Short Fiber: Price at 6,190, down 0.26%, with a daily fluctuation of 15.07% [5] - Ferrosilicon: Price at 5,510, down 0.29%, with a daily fluctuation of 22.25% [5] - Lithium Carbonate: Price at 78,560, down 4.34%, with a daily fluctuation of 109.72% [5] - Synthetic Rubber: Price at 10,205, down 2.30%, with a daily fluctuation of 31.45% [5] - p-Xylene: Price at 6,660, down 0.03%, with a daily fluctuation of 19.38% [5] - Glass: Price at 1,105, up 0.18%, with a daily fluctuation of 39.71% [5] - Propylene: Price at 6,026, down 1.16%, with a daily fluctuation of 21.10% [5] - Polysilicon: Price at 53,715, down 3.91%, with a daily fluctuation of 75.10% [6] Historical Volatility - The report provides historical volatility data (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) for various underlying assets such as furnace aluminum, Shanghai copper, etc [5] Group 3: Implied Volatility 主力平值IV - Implied volatility data for various underlying assets including polysilicon (e.g., 31%, 50%), propylene (e.g., 13%, 16%), etc [10] 主力平值IV分位值 - The report presents the percentile values of the implied volatility of the underlying assets such as 82%, 63%, etc [13] Group 4: Historical Trends - The report shows historical trends of the closing price, implied volatility, and HV60 for some underlying assets like industrial silicon, iron ore, soybean oil, etc [12]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued the "Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor System Optimization Work Plan," aimed at enhancing the attractiveness and adaptability of the QFII system, thereby creating a more transparent, convenient, and efficient investment environment for foreign investors [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Optimization of Access Management - Two key measures have been implemented: the integration of QFII qualification approval and account opening into a single process, and the establishment of a "green channel" for allocation-type foreign capital. These changes are expected to streamline the application process, reduce operational costs, and encourage long-term foreign institutional investment in Chinese assets [2]. Current Status of QFII System - The QFII system, introduced in 2002, has been a stable channel for foreign investors to allocate assets in China. As of now, there are 913 QFIIs in the market, including various types of investors such as fund management companies, banks, insurance companies, and sovereign funds, with total domestic asset scale exceeding 1 trillion RMB [2]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Industry experts express optimism regarding the QFII system's enhancements, noting that these changes will significantly boost the internationalization and marketization of China's financial markets. The ongoing improvements are expected to attract more overseas investors, particularly in high-growth sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine, reflecting a shift in foreign capital allocation strategies [3][4]. Broader Implications for Capital Market Opening - The CSRC has made strides in opening the capital market, including easing restrictions on QFII participation in domestic commodity futures and options. Future plans include expanding investment targets under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, optimizing mutual recognition arrangements for funds, and enhancing the stability and transparency of policies to attract more foreign investment [4].

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial options implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity options implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means higher implied volatility relative to historical volatility, and a smaller difference means lower implied volatility relative to historical volatility [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility Chart - The chart shows the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and their differences (IV - HV) for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, silver, gold, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, copper, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, zinc, urea, rapeseed oil, palm oil, etc [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking Chart - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] - The ranking chart shows the implied volatility quantile rankings and historical volatility quantile rankings for different varieties such as 300 - stock index, 50ETF, PTA, corn, etc [6]

Group 1: General Information - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility, a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference means the opposite [2] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Charts - There are charts showing the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and the difference (IV - HV) for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, silver, gold, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, copper, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, zinc, rapeseed oil, palm oil, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Quantiles - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [4] - There are rankings of implied volatility quantiles and historical volatility quantiles for different options such as 300 - stock index, PTA, 50ETF, corn, PVC, sugar, etc [5]

Group 1: Explanation of Volatility Index - Financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility, where a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference means the opposite [3] Group 2: Volatility Data Chart - The chart shows the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and the difference between them (IV - HV) for various products including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, silver, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, copper, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, urea, palm oil, etc [4] Group 3: Explanation of Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantile represents the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] - The document provides the implied volatility quantile ranking and historical volatility quantile ranking for different products such as 300 - stock index, corn, PTA, 50ETF, methanol, etc [6]