商品期权市场情绪

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商品期权周报:2025年第27周-20250706
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity options market showed increased activity this week, with significant growth in both trading volume and open interest. Traders are advised to focus on actively - traded varieties for potential market opportunities [1][7]. - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options rose. Some commodities saw a significant increase in implied volatility, and different strategies are recommended based on high - and low - volatility varieties. The PCR indicators reflect different market sentiment for various commodities, and investors should pay attention to the corresponding risks [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - From June 28 to July 4, 2025, the average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.82 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.86 million lots, with a week - on - week increase of 31.43% and 14.86% respectively [1][7]. - Actively - traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume included industrial silicon (780,000 lots), glass (770,000 lots), and soda ash (750,000 lots). There were 8 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 100%, such as polysilicon (+332%), industrial silicon (+227%), and glass (+116%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were p - xylene (-96%), synthetic rubber (-70%), and tin (-61%) [1][7]. - In terms of open interest, the varieties with high average daily open interest were soda ash (1.1 million lots), glass (930,000 lots), and soybean meal (890,000 lots). The variety with a rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest was polysilicon (+121%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Movements**: Most underlying futures of commodity options rose this week. The varieties with high weekly increases were industrial silicon (+6.59%), caustic soda (+2.63%), and rebar (+2.57%), while the variety with a high decline was red dates (-2.34%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Affected by the "anti - involution", the implied volatility of some commodities increased significantly this week, but 39 varieties still had their current implied volatility below the historical 50th percentile. High - volatility varieties included industrial silicon, eggs, and red dates, and investors were advised to beware of one - sided risks and consider short - volatility opportunities. Low - volatility varieties included iron ore, rebar, and vegetable oils, and industrial customers could consider insurance strategies due to the low option - buying prices [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of varieties such as red dates was at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment and the need to pay attention to the risk of underlying price corrections. The trading volume PCR of nickel, methanol, ethylene glycol, and styrene was at a historical low, showing a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and cotton was at a historical high, indicating a high - level accumulated bearish sentiment, while the open interest PCR of copper, nickel, styrene, LPG, and soda ash was at a historical low, indicating an accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview This chapter mainly presents the key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data for more varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fancy Micro official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. 3.3.1 Energy No specific data analysis is provided in the text, only chart references are given, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [20][22][23]. 3.3.2 Chemicals - **PTA**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of PTA [27][28][35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of caustic soda [37][38][39]. - **Glass**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of glass [43][44][45]. - **Soda Ash**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soda ash [51][52][53]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [57][61][58]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of iron ore [64][65][70]. - **Silicomanganese**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silicomanganese [72][73][74]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of copper [80][81][85]. - **Alumina**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of alumina [88][89][91]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soybean meal [97][99]. - **Palm Oil**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of palm oil [103][104][105]. - **Cotton**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of cotton [111][112][113].