商品期权市场波动

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商品期权周报:2025年第32周-20250810
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 14:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The activity level in the commodity options market declined this week, with average daily trading volume at 8.45 million lots and average daily open interest at 12.46 million lots, showing a -18.47% and +8.45% change respectively compared to the previous period. Traders are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance this week, with the energy - chemical sector mostly falling and the non - ferrous sector mostly rising. There were 31 varieties with weekly gains and 20 with weekly losses. Some varieties' implied volatility continued to correct, and different trading strategies are recommended based on the implied volatility levels of different varieties. Also, the PCR values of different varieties indicate different market sentiment [2][18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8.45 million lots, a -18.47% change from the previous period, and the average daily open interest was 12.46 million lots, a +8.45% change. The actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume included glass (1.17 million lots), soda ash (1.08 million lots), and polysilicon (0.66 million lots). There were 3 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 50%, namely eggs (+67%), rapeseed meal (+55%), and LPG (+51%), while the trading volume of p - xylene (-99%) and red dates (-87%) decreased significantly. The varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (1.69 million lots), soda ash (1.43 million lots), and soybean meal (1.07 million lots). The varieties with a rapid increase in daily average open interest were eggs (+38%), synthetic rubber (+38%), and Shanghai tin (+37%) [1][8]. 3.2 This Week's Key Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance. The energy - chemical sector mostly fell, and the non - ferrous sector mostly rose. There were 31 varieties with weekly gains, with lithium carbonate (+11.15%), red dates (+5.68%), and apples (+4.11%) having relatively high weekly gains. There were 20 varieties with weekly losses, with crude oil (-7.22%), LPG (-4.82%), and caustic soda (-3.66%) having relatively high weekly losses [2][18]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodity options continued to correct this week. 33 varieties had their current implied volatility below the 50th percentile of the past year's historical data. Varieties with implied volatility at historical highs in the past year included ferrosilicon, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and rapeseed meal, and traders are advised to be cautious of one - sided risks and consider short - volatility opportunities. Varieties with implied volatility at historical lows in the past year included methanol, ethylene glycol, urea, and non - ferrous metals, where buying options had a relatively high cost - performance ratio [2][18]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of varieties such as p - xylene was at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment in the market, and attention should be paid to the risk of underlying price corrections. The trading volume PCR of gold, oils and fats, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and rubber was at a historical low, indicating concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of p - xylene and lithium carbonate was at a historical high, suggesting that bearish sentiment in the market had accumulated to a relatively high level. The open interest PCR of nickel, gold, zinc, methanol, urea, and LPG was at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment in the market [2][19]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter mainly presents key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23].
商品期权周报:2025年第27周-20250706
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity options market showed increased activity this week, with significant growth in both trading volume and open interest. Traders are advised to focus on actively - traded varieties for potential market opportunities [1][7]. - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options rose. Some commodities saw a significant increase in implied volatility, and different strategies are recommended based on high - and low - volatility varieties. The PCR indicators reflect different market sentiment for various commodities, and investors should pay attention to the corresponding risks [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - From June 28 to July 4, 2025, the average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.82 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.86 million lots, with a week - on - week increase of 31.43% and 14.86% respectively [1][7]. - Actively - traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume included industrial silicon (780,000 lots), glass (770,000 lots), and soda ash (750,000 lots). There were 8 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 100%, such as polysilicon (+332%), industrial silicon (+227%), and glass (+116%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were p - xylene (-96%), synthetic rubber (-70%), and tin (-61%) [1][7]. - In terms of open interest, the varieties with high average daily open interest were soda ash (1.1 million lots), glass (930,000 lots), and soybean meal (890,000 lots). The variety with a rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest was polysilicon (+121%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Movements**: Most underlying futures of commodity options rose this week. The varieties with high weekly increases were industrial silicon (+6.59%), caustic soda (+2.63%), and rebar (+2.57%), while the variety with a high decline was red dates (-2.34%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Affected by the "anti - involution", the implied volatility of some commodities increased significantly this week, but 39 varieties still had their current implied volatility below the historical 50th percentile. High - volatility varieties included industrial silicon, eggs, and red dates, and investors were advised to beware of one - sided risks and consider short - volatility opportunities. Low - volatility varieties included iron ore, rebar, and vegetable oils, and industrial customers could consider insurance strategies due to the low option - buying prices [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of varieties such as red dates was at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment and the need to pay attention to the risk of underlying price corrections. The trading volume PCR of nickel, methanol, ethylene glycol, and styrene was at a historical low, showing a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and cotton was at a historical high, indicating a high - level accumulated bearish sentiment, while the open interest PCR of copper, nickel, styrene, LPG, and soda ash was at a historical low, indicating an accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview This chapter mainly presents the key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data for more varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fancy Micro official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. 3.3.1 Energy No specific data analysis is provided in the text, only chart references are given, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [20][22][23]. 3.3.2 Chemicals - **PTA**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of PTA [27][28][35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of caustic soda [37][38][39]. - **Glass**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of glass [43][44][45]. - **Soda Ash**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soda ash [51][52][53]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [57][61][58]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of iron ore [64][65][70]. - **Silicomanganese**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silicomanganese [72][73][74]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of copper [80][81][85]. - **Alumina**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of alumina [88][89][91]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soybean meal [97][99]. - **Palm Oil**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of palm oil [103][104][105]. - **Cotton**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of cotton [111][112][113].