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宝城期货橡胶早报:供需结构偏弱,橡胶震荡偏弱-20250701
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The rubber and synthetic rubber markets are expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a focus on weak operation [1][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - For both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2509 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2508, the short - term and mid - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", with a reference view of "weak operation" [1] 2. Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Core logic: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal effect of common positive factors for energy - chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market re - dominate. The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure, while downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. On Monday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures closed down 0.46% to 13,945 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Tuesday [5] 3. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Core logic: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal effect of common positive factors for energy - chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the synthetic rubber market re - dominate. The operating loads of some private cis - butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up the output and capacity utilization rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber last week. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. On Monday night, the 2508 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures closed down 0.22% to 11,245 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Tuesday [7]