> 南华期货 lgger mind, Bigger fortun 智慧创造财富 南华商品指数日报 南华商品指数日报 2026年1月6日 | the same and considered to the first of the | | | | | | | 南华期货 指数发展部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 晋扬景(Z0000505) | | | | | | | | | 赵 搏(F03103098) 王怡琳(F03118352) | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 | | | | | | 南华商品指数市场数据 | | | | | | | 今收费 | 昨收盘 | 点缀 | 日 時 | 年化收益率 | 年化波动室 | Sharpe | | 指数名称 | Today Close | Pre. Close | Points | 96 | ARB | An. Vol | Ratio | | 综合指数 NHCl | 2695.42 | 2645.01 | 50.41 | 1 ...

以下文章来源于晓策佬 ，作者乖乖隆的冬 晓策佬 . 商品期货领域，转载诸路干货，原创都是实话，当然会有广告。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 2025年，似乎所有人都挣到了钱，细想应是挣到钱的人声音较大，因为2025年的行情确实很大。 一是热点品种不断创新高。 上周现货黄金连续刷新历史新高，周五最高接近4550美元/盎司，今年累计涨超70%。白银走势更为凌厉，连续突破整数关口并刷新纪 录，周五最高涨破79美元/盎司关口；铂金、钯金及工业金属铜也在资金推动下创出阶段性甚至历史新高。 二是商品强弱表现极致分化。 12月如此密集的软逼仓交易多年罕见，既有对库存偏高品种的空逼多，如焦煤、PVC、纯碱、玻璃、甲醇等，也有对相对紧缺物资的多 逼空，如贵金属和有色板块。 强势品种逻辑也是有区别的，比如贵金属行情是金融属性走强及避险预期，工业金属行情是供需紧平衡逻辑及通胀预期，并呈现"铜 紧、铝稳、镍松"格局。核心逻辑从"广谱需求复苏"，转向"供给约束+结构性需求"，能源转型和AI成为改变平衡表预期的重要驱动，而 四季度储能需求的爆炒狂飙而至，一石激起千层浪。 总之，2025年的大宗商品投资，呈现明显的预期引领价值，从操作层面上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an objective ranking of mutual fund net asset values, highlighting the top-performing and bottom-performing funds without any subjective bias or investment advice [1]. Fund Performance Summary Top 10 Funds by Net Value Growth - The top-performing funds based on net value growth include: 1. 方正富邦远见成长混合A with a net value of 1.4412 and a growth rate of 7.30% 2. 方正富邦远见成长混合C with a net value of 1.4090 and a growth rate of 7.29% 3. 创金合信兴选产业趋势混合A with a net value of 1.1599 and a growth rate of 7.18% 4. 创金合信兴选产业趋势混合C with a net value of 1.1400 and a growth rate of 7.17% 5. 中海魅力长三角混合 with a net value of 3.8050 and a growth rate of 7.12% 6. 德邦高端装备混合发起式A with a net value of 1.2321 and a growth rate of 7.09% 7. 德邦高端装备混合发起式C with a net value of 1.2297 and a growth rate of 7.09% 8. 永赢先进制造智选混合发起A with a net value of 2.5007 and a growth rate of 7.00% 9. 永赢先进制造智选混合发起C with a net value of 2.4750 and a growth rate of 7.00% 10. 财通资管先进制造混合发起式A with a net value of 2.0656 and a growth rate of 6.80% [2]. Bottom 10 Funds by Net Value Decline - The funds with the largest declines in net value include: 1. 国投瑞银白银期货(LOF)A with a net value of 2.0119 and a decline of 5.54% 2. 中加优势企业混合C with a net value of 1.6662 and a decline of 2.98% 3. 中加优势企业混合A with a net value of 1.7436 and a decline of 2.98% 4. 大成中国优选混合C with a net value of 1.3182 and a decline of 2.92% 5. 大成中国优选混合A with a net value of 1.3279 and a decline of 2.92% 6. 汇添富黄金混合A with a net value of 1.8040 and a decline of 2.85% 7. 创金合信全景混合A with a net value of 1.7689 and a decline of 2.85% 8. 创金合信全景混合C with a net value of 1.7526 and a decline of 2.84% 9. 汇添富黄金混合C with a net value of 1.7840 and a decline of 2.83% 10. 国泰大宗商品混合A with a net value of 0.6680 and a decline of 2.62% [3]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but regained momentum, closing flat, while the ChiNext Index opened low and closed higher. The total trading volume reached 2.16 trillion, with a stock rise-to-fall ratio of 1840:3481 and a limit-up/down ratio of 66:19. The leading sectors included chemical fibers and petroleum, both rising over 2%, while public transportation saw a decline of over 2% [5]. Fund Holdings Analysis - The top holdings of the funds show a concentration of 58.81%. Notable stocks include: - 浙江宗泰 with a daily increase of 10.00% - 震裕科技 with a daily increase of 6.18% - 三花智控 with a daily increase of 9.99% - Other significant performers include 拓普集团, 汉威科技, and 斯菱智驱, with various increases [6]. Fund Style and Performance - The fund style is categorized under general machinery, with a focus on humanoid robotics. The net value of the fund has outperformed the market [6]. Conversely, the 国投瑞银白银期货(LOF)A fund, which tracks silver prices, has underperformed due to significant price volatility in the silver market [7].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素消化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区步入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，同时胶 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：受困于国内甲醇供应压力不断增大，同时面对国内煤炭期货价格大幅回调的拖累，甲醇 期货反弹受阻，转而重新陷入回调走势。目前港口库存和内陆地区库存小幅回落，但依然处于高位。 同时下游需求改善不足，烯烃盘面利 ...

- The report tracks various quantitative factors across equity, commodity, options, and convertible bond markets, providing insights into market trends and factor performance during the week of December 15-19, 2025[3][9][24] - **Equity Market Factors**: - **Market Style**: The market showed a slight preference for large-cap and value styles, reversing the trend from the previous week[10][12] - **Market Structure**: Industry excess return dispersion and rotation speed increased, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks decreased. Concentration in the top 100 stocks remained stable, and the top 5 industries saw a slight decline in transaction concentration[10][12] - **Market Activity**: Both market volatility and turnover rate continued to decline[11][12] - **Commodity Market Factors**: - **Trend Strength**: All sectors except the black sector showed an increase in trend strength[24][29] - **Volatility**: Volatility decreased in the precious metals and agricultural sectors but increased in other sectors[24][29] - **Liquidity**: Liquidity declined in the energy and agricultural sectors but slightly improved in other sectors[24][29] - **Basis Momentum**: Basis momentum increased in the energy and black sectors but decreased in other sectors[24][29] - **Options Market Factors**: - Implied volatility for both the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 rebounded from low levels. The skew of call and put options for the SSE 50 decreased, while the skew of put options for the CSI 1000 continued to rise, indicating risk release in large-cap stocks and risk accumulation in small-cap stocks[32][36] - **Convertible Bond Market Factors**: - The market stabilized and recovered, with transaction volume exceeding the median level of the past year. The premium rate for bonds priced at 100 yuan reached a new annual high, while the proportion of low premium rate bonds continued to decline[34][38][40]

Market Overview - A-shares remain stable with controllable risks, suggesting opportunities for low-cost investments in high-prosperity sectors. The macro strategy team indicates that market enthusiasm for chasing high prices is still weak, but the index remains relatively stable, expected to maintain a fluctuating structure with controllable risks. Signs of market stabilization have become more apparent since December, particularly in high-prosperity sectors that have shown resilience. It is recommended to preferentially invest in industries with upward trends in prosperity and patiently await the upcoming spring market [1][4][6]. Stock Market Factors - Last week, market style shifted slightly towards large-cap stocks, with a value-oriented approach gaining traction compared to the previous week. The volatility of both large-cap and value-growth styles remained low. The dispersion of excess returns among industries and the speed of industry rotation have reversed, showing an increase, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks has decreased. The trading concentration of the top 100 stocks remained stable, with a slight decline in the trading concentration of the top five industries [6][8]. Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, all sectors except for the black metal sector showed an upward trend in strength. The efficiency coefficients for precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products remained high. The basis momentum for precious metals saw a significant decline, while the basis momentum for energy and black metal sectors increased. Volatility increased in all sectors except for precious metals and agricultural products, and liquidity decreased in the energy and agricultural sectors, while other sectors saw a slight increase [20][21]. Options Market Factors - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 rebounded from low levels last week. In terms of volatility skew, both call and put options for the Shanghai index decreased, while the put option skew for the CSI 1000 continued to rise, indicating that the market has experienced some risk release, with small-cap styles still accumulating risks [29]. Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market stabilized and showed signs of recovery last week. The valuation of bonds reached a new high for the year in terms of the premium rate for conversion at 100 yuan, maintaining a trend of oscillation and increase. The pure bond premium rate for debt-type groupings saw a slight increase, while the proportion of low premium conversion bonds continued to decline, remaining at a low level. Market transaction volume rebounded, surpassing the historical median for the past year [31].

Hot News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued opinions on promoting the large - scale development of solar thermal power generation. The goal is to reach a total installed capacity of about 15 million kilowatts by 2030, with the cost per kilowatt - hour comparable to that of coal - fired power [2] - The U.S. economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, supported by resilient consumer and business spending and more stable trade policies. The real GDP annualized quarterly rate in the third quarter was 4.3% [2] - Investors reduced their bets on the Fed cutting interest rates next year. The probability of a rate cut at the January 28 meeting is only about 17% [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent supports reconsidering the Fed's 2% inflation target, and discussions may center on adjusting it to a range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% [2] - U.S. President Trump praised the third - quarter GDP data, but the market reaction was abnormal. Good news often leads to a flat or falling stock market [3] Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: silver, rapeseed oil, ethylene glycol, Shanghai nickel, PVC [4] - Night session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.30%, precious metals 34.77%, oilseeds and oils 8.02%, soft commodities 3.16%, non - ferrous metals 24.36%, coal - coking - steel - minerals 10.27%, energy 2.32%, chemicals 10.20%, grains 1.20%, and agricultural products 3.40% [4] Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07% daily, 0.81% monthly, and 16.95% annually; S&P 500 had no daily change, 0.43% monthly, and 16.95% annually [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.26% daily and monthly, - 0.65% annually [6] - Commodities: CRB Commodity Index had no daily change, - 0.93% monthly, and 0.66% annually; WTI crude oil had no daily change, - 0.80% monthly, and - 19.45% annually [6] - Others: U.S. dollar index had no daily change, - 1.19% monthly, and - 9.42% annually; CBOE Volatility Index had no daily change, - 13.88% monthly, and - 18.85% annually [6] Stock Market Risk Appetite and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents charts of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc. [7]

- The report covers the period from December 8, 2025, to December 12, 2025[2][10] - The A-share market showed limited incremental funds and a characteristic of stock game due to seasonal tightening of funds towards the end of the year[3][10] - In the stock market, the style was biased towards small-cap and growth, with decreased volatility in the small-cap style and increased volatility in the growth style[11][13] - The market structure showed a decrease in industry excess return dispersion, industry rotation speed, and the proportion of rising constituent stocks[11][13] - The trading concentration increased for the top 100 stocks but decreased for the top 5 industries[11][13] - Market activity showed a decline in both market volatility and turnover rate[12][13] - In the commodity market, trend strength increased, especially in precious metals and non-ferrous metals, while the basis momentum rose in the energy and chemical sectors but fell in others[26][33] - Volatility increased in all sectors except energy and chemicals, with precious metals maintaining high volatility, and liquidity rose slightly in all sectors except black metals[26][33] - In the options market, the implied volatility of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 further declined to historical lows, with the put skew decreasing for the SSE 50 and increasing for the CSI 1000[37] - In the convertible bond market, the market showed low volatility, with the premium rate of bonds convertible at par remaining high, the pure bond premium rate decreasing, and the proportion of low premium convertible bonds declining[41]

A股低开，沪指低0.19%，创业板指跌0.21%。算力硬件、光伏、锂矿概念股回调，商业航天继续活跃，深海科技题材走强。 商品期市开盘多数下跌，焦炭跌1.96%，沪银跌0.72%，集运指数(欧线)跌0.67%。 国债期货全线高开，30年期主力合约涨0.41%，10年期主力合约涨0.13%，5年期主力合约涨0.07%，2年期主力合约涨0.02%。 9:41 A股商业航天概念继续活跃，龙洲股份5连板，宝胜股份、西部材料3连板，陕西华达涨超10%，达华智能、航天宏图、雷科防务、顺灏股份跟 涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301517 | 陕西华达 | 62.77 | 20.00% | | 688682 | 霍莱沃 | 44.90 | 8.93% | | 000901 | 航天科技 | 24.89 | 6.60% | | 688066 | 航天宏图 | 29.74 | 5.09% | | 001270 | *ST斩昌 | 54.15 | 5.00% | | 300395 | 菲利华 | 85.58 | 4.89% | | 688311 | 盟升 ...