Report Summary 1. Hot News - The negotiation between the US and Iran is uncertain. Iran rejected the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House said the negotiation was ongoing and productive. The US House Speaker claimed the Iran war was "nearly over" and the US military's troop deployment was a warning. Iranian military sources said they were ready for further escalation [2]. - Iran stated that non - belligerent ships could pass through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination. COSCO Shipping Lines resumed new bookings for ordinary containers to some Middle - East countries but ships would not pass through the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - By the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity in China was 3.95 billion kilowatts, a 15.9% year - on - year increase. Solar power and wind power installed capacities were 1.23 billion and 0.65 billion kilowatts respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.2% and 22.8% [2]. - The President of Indonesia approved tariffs on coal and nickel exports, and the specific tax rates are still under discussion. Indonesia accounts for over half of the world's nickel production [3]. - In the week ending March 25, national building materials production was 4.7336 million tons, an increase of 0.2835 million tons from the previous week. Factory inventory decreased by 0.5197 million tons, social inventory increased by 0.0532 million tons, total inventory decreased by 0.4665 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 0.3742 million tons [3]. 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, lithium carbonate, platinum, asphalt, PVC [4]. - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.53%, precious metals 26.15%, oilseeds 8.85%, soft commodities 2.49%, non - ferrous metals 23.04%, coal - coking - steel - ore 10.04%, energy 7.95%, chemicals 14.88%, grains 1.09%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.98% [4]. 3. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, including sectors like agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coking - steel - ore, non - ferrous metals, etc [5]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.30% daily, - 5.55% monthly, and - 0.93% year - to - date; other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index also had corresponding changes [6]. - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had different daily, monthly, and year - to - date changes [6]. - Commodities: CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index had their respective performance [6]. - Others: US dollar index and CBOE volatility had different changes [6]. 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, etc., as well as ratios like gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent extreme volatility in the domestic commodity futures market is primarily driven by energy prices and geopolitical tensions, leading to significant price fluctuations and a shift from a bullish to a bearish market within a short period [2][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On March 9, a wide range of commodity futures experienced a significant surge, particularly in the energy and chemical sectors, with many contracts hitting their daily price limits [2]. - The market saw a "limit-up" phenomenon, especially in energy products like SC crude oil and fuel oil, driven by rising international oil prices, which approached $120 per barrel [5][6]. - Following the initial surge, market sentiment quickly reversed, with only 10 out of 72 main contracts maintaining an upward trend the next day, indicating a shift to a volatile trading environment [2][7]. Group 2: Impact of Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has raised global energy supply concerns, contributing to the rapid increase in oil prices [5]. - The rise in oil prices not only directly affects energy products but also influences chemical product prices through cost transmission along the supply chain [6]. - Domestic refined oil prices have also increased in line with international oil prices, reinforcing expectations of further energy price hikes [7]. Group 3: CTA Strategy Performance - In periods of extreme market volatility, different types of Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies exhibit significant performance divergence [9]. - Subjective CTA strategies, which rely on macroeconomic and fundamental analysis, may struggle to adapt quickly to sudden market changes, leading to increased net value fluctuations [9]. - In contrast, quantitative CTA strategies, which utilize diversified portfolios and automated trading, tend to perform more stably during volatile periods due to their risk management mechanisms [9]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - High volatility in the commodity market often indicates increased trend opportunities, driven by geopolitical conflicts, energy price fluctuations, and changing global inflation expectations [13]. - In the current environment of macroeconomic uncertainty, CTA strategies remain valuable for asset allocation, offering risk diversification and potential trend capture during significant price movements [13]. - Investors are advised to focus on the stability of strategy structures, as diversified quantitative CTA strategies are better suited to handle extreme market conditions compared to single-product strategies [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, today the Nanhua Composite Index rose 1.96%. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell by -0.56%, while the rest of the sectors rose. The sector with the largest increase was the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index, with a gain of 3.66%, and the sector with the smallest increase was the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, with a gain of 0.12%. Among the theme indices, only the Economic Crops Index fell by -0.74%, while the rest of the theme indices rose. The theme index with the largest increase was the Energy Index, with a gain of 7.33%, and the theme index with the smallest increase was the Building Materials Index, with a gain of 0.28%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the single - variety index with the largest increase was Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, up 11.94%, and the single - variety index with the largest decline was Apple, with a decline of -2.46% [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 3077.03 today, up 24.14 points or 0.79% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 20.61%, an annualized volatility of 14.89%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.38 [3] - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 2301.66, down 17.56 points or -0.76% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 110.66%, an annualized volatility of 31.86%, and a Sharpe ratio of 3.47 [3] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) closed at 4106.95, up 48.65 points or 1.20% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 8.25%, an annualized volatility of 16.21%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.51 [3] - The Nanhua All - Metal Index (NHMI) closed at 7238.22, up 8.04 points or 0.11% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 13.17%, an annualized volatility of 14.31%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.92 [3] - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1920.92, up 40.54 points or 2.16% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 5.96%, an annualized volatility of 20.76%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.29 [3] - The Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index (NHNF) closed at 2077.14, down 1.15 points or -0.06% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 25.81%, an annualized volatility of 18.17%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.42 [3] - The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2553.25, up 17.81 points or 0.70% from yesterday, with an annualized return of -3.40%, an annualized volatility of 16.01%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.21 [3] - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) closed at 1112.48, up 11.35 points or 1.03% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 3.60%, an annualized volatility of 7.94%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.45 [3] - The Nanhua Mini - Composite Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1386.34, up 2.89 points or 0.21% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 6.44%, an annualized volatility of 23.54%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.27 [3] - The Nanhua Energy Index (NHEI) closed at 1362.33, down 0.74 points or -0.05% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 13.13%, an annualized volatility of 48.41%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.27 [3] - The Nanhua Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 1154.16, up 53.76 points or 4.89% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 10.46%, an annualized volatility of 28.62%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.37 [3] - The Nanhua Coal - Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 1126.11, up 45.67 points or 4.23% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 8.53%, an annualized volatility of 29.54%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.29 [3] - The Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index (NHEM) closed at 1071.94, up 10.59 points or 1.00% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 0.31%, an annualized volatility of 17.59%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.02 [3] - The Nanhua Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 714.50, up 14.36 points or 2.05% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 1.40%, an annualized volatility of 13.96%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.10 [3] - The Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOl) closed at 1334.24, up 23.41 points or 1.79% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 4.12%, an annualized volatility of 14.05%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.29 [3] - The Nanhua Economic Crops Index (NHAECI) closed at 982.56, up 4.26 points or 0.44% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 2.75%, an annualized volatility of 10.43%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.26 [3] Other Information - The calculation method of the contribution degree in the report is that the contribution degree is the product of the daily increase/decrease and the weight, and the daily increase/decrease is the ratio of the (today's closing price) to the (yesterday's closing price). The Nanhua Commodity Index eliminates the price difference when the commodity contract changes months, reflecting the real return of investing in commodity futures [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report systematically reviews the cycle characteristics and causes of the commodity bull market, indicating that the core driving force for the excellent performance of commodities during the economic prosperity phase comes from the expansion of real - economy demand and rising inflation [3]. - The commodity index timing strategy 2.0 has limitations such as high noise in trading signals during deflation and insufficient capture of phased rebound markets. The newly developed multi - factor timing strategy significantly improves sensitivity to rebound markets and capture efficiency, with optimized signal quality and better overall timing results [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs "Commodity Bull Market" Cycle Review and Cause Analysis - **"Commodity Bull Market" Cause Analysis**: During economic growth, the demand of major commodity - consuming industries like manufacturing, construction, and transportation increases, directly promoting the expansion of the commodity market and causing price increases. Commodities are effective anti - inflation investment tools during economic prosperity due to their high correlation with inflation [6]. - **Commodity Market Performance in the Economic Cycle**: Using the macro - economic prosperity index year - on - year data and CPI year - on - year data as indicators for economic growth and inflation growth, it is confirmed that the commodity market has the best returns during the prosperity phase [7]. Limitation Analysis and Timing Factor Formulation Method - **Review of Commodity Index Strategy 1.0 and 2.0**: Strategy 1.0's inflation index based on PMI ex - factory prices leads official PPI data by about 10 days but lags behind the commodity futures index by about a month. Strategy 2.0 optimizes Strategy 1.0, and the monthly average of the commodity futures index is highly consistent with the inflation index, providing a leading signal for inflation paths and leading official PPI data by about 40 days in PPI trend information acquisition [10][11]. - **Limitations of Commodity Index Strategy 2.0**: In the deflation phase, the trading signals generated by the strategy are noisy, and the ability to capture phased rebound markets is limited, resulting in missed profit opportunities [14]. - **Formulation Method of Commodity Index Multi - factor Timing Strategy Factors**: - **Commodity Futures Index Trend Timing Factor**: Use the commodity index itself as the price - level factor and combine it with economic index timing [15]. - **Supply Timing Factor**: Use the PMI new order index and PMI production index to represent the supply and demand sides, and combine them with PPI trend prediction [18]. - **Demand Timing Factor**: Similar to the supply timing factor, it combines relevant indicators and PPI trend prediction [20]. - **Supply - Demand Composite Timing Factor**: Based on the weights in the manufacturing PMI index, sum the weighted new order index and production index and normalize them with a total weight of 55% [21]. - **Predicted Supply Timing Factor**: Select 14 high - frequency supply - side indicators to fit the PMI production index, with monthly rolling fitting and historical back - testing starting from July 2021 [23]. - **Predicted Demand Timing Factor**: Select 16 high - frequency demand - side indicators to fit the PMI new order index, with monthly rolling fitting and historical back - testing starting from July 2021 [25]. - **Predicted Supply - Demand Composite Timing Factor**: Weight and sum the predicted supply and demand timing factors and then normalize them with a total weight of 55% [27]. Commodity Index Multi - factor Timing Strategy Net Value Back - testing - Combine the 7 timing factors introduced above with the timing factor in the previous report to construct 8 equal - weighted scoring factors. When the total score of the 8 factors exceeds 4 points, a long signal for the commodity index is triggered. The multi - factor timing strategy shows obvious timing effects on the commodity index, and its timing effect is more sensitive than that of the commodity index timing strategy 2.0, effectively tracking phased rebound markets even in a downward price cycle [29]. Summary - The research first reviews the previous research conclusions that the commodity market performs well during economic prosperity and has developed commodity index timing strategies 1.0 and 2.0. To address the limitations of Strategy 2.0, 7 new timing factors are constructed and combined with the original factor to form an 8 - factor equal - weighted scoring system. The multi - factor timing strategy significantly improves the ability to identify phased rebounds in the downward cycle, with better signal sensitivity and stability [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term due to factors such as fast Brazilian new soybean harvest, strong export expectations in February, and reduced domestic market trading before the Spring Festival [5][6] - The palm oil market is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with the focus on the upcoming MPOB monthly report, and it will turn into a wide - range volatile trend [7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:震荡; Mid - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [5] - **Core Logic**: Brazilian new soybean harvest is faster than usual, with strong export expectations in February, squeezing US soybean export space. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report, which is expected to slightly lower US soybean year - end inventory and raise Brazilian soybean production. In the domestic market, most soybean crushing plants have shut down before the Spring Festival, and feed enterprises' pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, resulting in a loose supply and cautious trading [5][6] Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:震荡; Mid - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏强; Reference view:震荡偏强 [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The market is focused on the upcoming MPOB monthly report. Malaysian palm oil inventory in January is expected to drop to about 2.91 million tons, ending the continuous inventory build - up. Domestic pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and spot trading is light, with funds more willing to leave the market. In the short - term, it will turn into a wide - range volatile trend [7]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are all "oscillating", while the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The market is affected by multiple factors, with both positive and negative forces, resulting in a state of oscillation [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend** - Intraday view: Oscillating strongly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic** - Positive factors: Market expectations of China's purchase of US soybeans and the implementation of the US biodiesel tax credit policy boosting US soybean oil demand have injected positive sentiment and supported US soybean prices [5]. - Negative factors: The abundant global soybean supply is the core force suppressing prices. Brazil's soybean harvest is expected to be bountiful and the progress is faster than usual, which means high imports in the coming months. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are nearly doubled year - on - year and at a historical high, while the downstream aquaculture industry is generally in the red and pre - Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over, leading to weak demand [5]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend** - Intraday view: Oscillating strongly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating strongly [7][6] - **Core Logic** - Positive factors: The upcoming MPOB data is expected to show a decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory, which may provide short - term support [7]. - Negative factors: Although Malaysia's palm oil is in the production - reduction season, the absolute inventory level is still high and it will enter the production - increasing cycle later. The domestic pre - Spring Festival stockpiling is coming to an end, demand support is weakening, and there is still inventory pressure in the near term [7]. For Soybean Oil (Not in a separate doc but in the catalog) - **Price Trend** - Short - term: Oscillating; Medium - term: Oscillating; Intraday: Oscillating strongly; Reference view: Oscillating strongly [6] - **Core Logic** - Influenced by US soybean cost support, US bio - fuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil - mill inventory [6] For Palm (in the catalog) - **Price Trend** - Short - term: Oscillating; Medium - term: Oscillating; Intraday: Oscillating strongly; Reference view: Oscillating strongly [6] - **Core Logic** - Affected by Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market opened with most main contracts declining, particularly in the precious and non-ferrous metals sectors, which saw significant drops [1] - Following the sharp decline of silver futures last Friday, other metals such as platinum, palladium, and tin also hit their daily limit down today [1] Group 2 - Specific price movements include: - Silver (沪银2604) at 24,832, down 17.00% - Palladium (舞2606) at 413.70, down 16.00% - Platinum (铂2606) at 552.15, down 16.00% - Gold (沪金2604) at 1,060.38, down 11.41% - Tin (沪锡2603) at 392,650, down 11.00% - Copper (沪铜2603) at 100,580, down 7.16% - Nickel (沪镇2603) at 135,340, down 7.10% - International Copper (国际铜2603) at 89,100, down 7.07% - Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂2605) at 145,180, down 5.72% - Aluminum (沪铝2603) at 23,975, down 5.29% - Aluminum Alloy (铝合金2603) at 22,385, down 4.68% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic large feed groups have completed pre - holiday stockpiling in advance, with weak subsequent purchasing willingness. The market is interested in far - month basis contracts. Near the Spring Festival, soybean meal inventory will be passively reduced, but the large supply of Brazilian new crops and sufficient domestic forward arrivals will suppress price increases. The decline of US soybeans will also weaken the support for domestic soybean meal futures prices [5]. - Palm oil futures prices are running strongly driven by import costs and market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the continuous procurement of near - month shipments, which will limit the strengthening space of the basis, and the near - month basis may decline. After continuous rises, the short - term palm oil futures prices will experience increased high - level volatility [7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory weak; Reference view: oscillatory weak [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The completion of pre - holiday stockpiling by large feed groups, interest in far - month basis contracts, passive inventory reduction near the Spring Festival, large Brazilian new - crop supply, sufficient domestic forward arrivals, and the decline of US soybeans [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillatory weak; Reference view: oscillatory weak [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The upward trend driven by import costs and market sentiment, the expected supply loosening due to near - month shipment procurement, and high - level volatility after continuous rises [7].

Group 1: Market Overview and Investment Strategies - The 2026 cross-market investment strategy conference highlighted the acceleration of sector rotation in investment markets, presenting multiple investment opportunities [1] - The chairman of Xunuo Asset emphasized the profound changes in capital markets since 2024, indicating a transition from "policy bottom" to "market bottom," with notable performance in the sci-tech and high-end manufacturing sectors [1] - The commodity futures market, particularly lithium carbonate, gold, and silver, has shown independent trends and distinct sector rotation characteristics [1] - Investment strategies should leverage financial tools like stock index futures for risk hedging and enhanced returns, especially in an increasingly institutionalized A-share market [1] Group 2: Economic Insights and Sector Focus - Dr. Qiao Yongyuan noted that rising global debt pressures could lead to significant changes in asset prices, with a potential decline in the real estate market's traditional role as an economic growth engine [2] - The application of AI, particularly in sectors like healthcare, is expected to emerge as a new economic growth point, prompting investors to rethink new investment opportunities [2] - Li Xudong recommended focusing on mid-cap stock index futures like CSI 500 and CSI 1000, avoiding heavily weighted indices like CSI 300 and SSE 50 due to their concentrated chip characteristics [2] Group 3: Silver and Lithium Market Analysis - The price of silver has surged since June last year, driven by factors such as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the dollar's credibility and increased industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [3] - Silver has experienced a supply deficit for five consecutive years, contributing to its price increase, with expectations for continued upward trends due to strong industrial demand and supply constraints [3] - The lithium carbonate market is anticipated to maintain strong pricing due to macroeconomic and industrial factors, with a significant demand surge driven by the global energy transition and China's manufacturing upgrade [3] Group 4: Lithium Battery Industry Trends - The lithium battery market is witnessing robust demand, particularly in the energy storage sector, which is a crucial part of national energy strategy and global energy transition [4] - Recent policies, such as solid waste management guidelines and export tax rebates, may have short-term impacts on the lithium industry, but the long-term trend favors companies expanding internationally [5] - The current supply constraints in lithium resources, coupled with strong demand, indicate that the upward cycle for lithium carbonate prices is not yet over, with orders extending into 2027 [5] Group 5: Trading Strategies and Market Dynamics - A roundtable discussion among experienced traders focused on establishing trading order amid market chaos, emphasizing the need for a robust rule system and execution discipline to manage risks [6] - The participants agreed that while market disorder is inevitable, successful traders can create internal trading order to counter external uncertainties, highlighting the importance of emotional control during losses [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the basic metals sector, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term due to the significant off - season characteristics of the consumer end, inventory accumulation, and cautious market sentiment; alumina prices will maintain a weak trend due to future supply surplus pressure; zinc and lead prices are recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - In the black industry, the short position of the rebar 2605 contract should be held; iron ore is recommended to be on the sidelines; the short position of the coking coal 2605 contract should be held [2][3]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom; corn futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range; oils and fats are strong in the short - term; sugar futures should be shorted on rallies and call options should be sold; cotton should be bought on dips; egg and hog prices are expected to be weak [4][5]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term; PVC is recommended to sell 05 and buy 09 for reverse arbitrage; PTA is recommended to take profits appropriately; methanol is expected to fluctuate and adjust; glass is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash; PP is expected to be weak in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term; MEG short positions should be held; crude oil should be shorted on rallies; styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term; soda ash is recommended to be on the sidelines [6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.86% to 24,155 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 295 yuan/ton, with the LME price at 3,135 US dollars/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly; the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: Aluminum prices will maintain a fluctuating adjustment in the short - term [1]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.04% to 2,672 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 35 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [1]. - Trading strategy: Alumina prices will maintain a weak trend [1]. Zinc and Lead - Market performance: On January 21, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24,350 yuan/ton and 17,115 yuan/ton respectively. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 24,350 yuan/ton and - 17,115 yuan/ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 43.57 and - 46.32 US dollars/ton respectively. The zinc inventory in seven regions increased by 0.36 tons to 12.2 tons from January 15 to January 19, and the lead inventory in five regions increased by 0.16 tons to 3.41 tons [1]. - Fundamentals: The zinc market had a supply - demand double - weak situation. The domestic consumption was in the traditional off - season, and the downstream was reluctant to buy at high prices. The supply increased significantly, and the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased, but the low LME inventory provided support. The domestic lead ingot inventory increased, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries weakened, and the downstream procurement was cautious [1]. - Trading strategy: Short zinc and lead on rallies in the short - term [1]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3,124 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [2]. - Fundamentals: The building material inventory increased by 1.4% to 300.5 tons. The steel supply - demand was neutral - weak, and the structural differentiation was significant. The building material demand was weak year - on - year, but the supply decreased significantly year - on - year. The plate demand was stable, and the direct and indirect exports remained high. The steel mill was in a continuous loss, and the production increase space was limited. The futures valuation was slightly low [2]. - Trading strategy: Hold the short position of the rebar 2605 contract, with the RB05 reference range of 3,090 - 3,150 yuan/ton [2]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 785.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [3]. - Fundamentals: The iron ore arrival increased by 117 tons month - on - month and 721 tons year - on - year. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased by 360 tons to 2,898 tons month - on - month and increased by 511 tons year - on - year. The iron ore supply - demand was neutral. The fourth round of price cuts was implemented, and the coking plant proposed the first round of price increases. The steel mill's profit was poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production might decrease steadily. The port and steel mill inventories were at the lowest level in the same period of history. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure, and the valuation was neutral [3]. - Trading strategy: Be on the sidelines, with the I05 reference range of 775 - 805 yuan/ton [3]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1,121 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [3]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron production decreased by 1.5 tons to 228 tons month - on - month and increased by 3.5 tons year - on - year. The steel mill's profit deteriorated, and the subsequent blast furnace production might decrease steadily. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented, and the first round of price increases was proposed. The port customs clearance was at a high level, and the inventories at various links were differentiated. The 05 contract futures had a premium over the spot, and the forward premium structure was maintained. The coking coal supply - demand was weak [3]. - Trading strategy: Hold the short position of the coking coal 2605 contract, with the JM05 reference range of 1,090 - 1,130 yuan/ton [3]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose, driven by US soybean oil [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near - term, and there was a large supply expectation in South America in the long - term. The US soybean crushing was strong, and the export improved marginally. The global supply - demand was expected to be loose [4]. - Trading strategy: US soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom; domestic far - month contracts are suppressed by the large South American supply expectation, and near - month contracts depend on customs clearance [4]. Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and the corn spot price decreased in North China and increased in Northeast China [4]. - Fundamentals: The grain sales progress has passed half, and the grain sales pressure is not large. Farmers are reluctant to sell and support prices. The inventories of north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. Northeast deep - processing enterprises have a high enthusiasm for building inventories, but the policy - driven corn auction has cooled down. The spot price is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian market was strong, trading seasonally [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply was in a weak seasonal reduction; the export improved month - on - month, and the high - frequency ITS showed that the Malaysian export from January 1 - 20 increased by 11% month - on - month. Overall, it was loose in the near - term and in a weak seasonal reduction in the long - term [4]. - Trading strategy: Oils and fats are strong in the short - term, and pay attention to production and biodiesel policies in the medium - term [4]. Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5,138 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.54%. The basis of the 05 contract was 162 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after tax was 407 yuan/ton [4][5]. - Fundamentals: The international raw sugar dropped significantly due to the pressure from Indian production, and the pressure from India will last until February. Then, observe the impact of the sugar - alcohol price difference on the next season's Brazilian production. Currently, it is still in a fluctuating pattern. Domestically, the overall production and sales progress is slow this year, and the spot pressure in the later market is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production, and both imported and domestic sugar put pressure on it. After the macro - sentiment cools down, sugar will follow the fundamental logic [4][5]. - Trading strategy: Short sugar futures on rallies and sell call options [5]. Cotton - Market performance: Overnight, the ICE US cotton futures price was under pressure and declined, and the international crude oil price continued to rebound [5]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, as of the week of January 16, the cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, increased to 29%, faster than the same period last year. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price began to fluctuate narrowly, and the upward trend was still valid. In December 2025, the cotton yarn export volume was 2.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.78% [5]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips, with the price range of 14,500 - 14,900 yuan/ton [5]. Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures prices were weak, and egg spot prices increased in some areas [5]. - Fundamentals: The in - production inventory of laying hens decreased, but the capacity reduction slowed down. As the egg price rose, the willingness of producers to ship increased, the arrival volume in the sales area increased, the purchasing enthusiasm of the trading end decreased, the inventory increased, and the egg price may decline seasonally [5]. - Trading strategy: The spot price is expected to decline seasonally, and the futures price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [5]. Hogs - Market performance: Hog futures prices were weak, and hog spot prices declined [5]. - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume increased at the end of the month, the demand was stable in the short - term, the supply pressure increased, and after the impact of snowfall ended, the hog price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. Pay attention to the changes in the slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm recently [5]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand weakens, and the futures price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [5]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly. The low - price spot quotation in North China was 6,520 yuan/ton, the basis of the 05 contract was 140, the basis weakened, and the market transaction was average. The US dollar price in the overseas market was stable, and the import window was closed [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new devices were put into production before, some devices reduced the load and stopped production, and the domestic supply pressure slowed down. The import window was continuously closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly later. Overall, the domestic supply pressure rebounded but the intensity slowed down. On the demand side, it was the off - season for downstream agricultural films, the demand decreased month - on - month, and the demand in other fields remained stable [6]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply - demand was weak, and geopolitical factors were repeated. It is expected to fluctuate mainly, and the upward space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the medium - term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of the year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to go long on dips [6]. PVC - Market performance: The V05 contract closed at 4,7432, a decline of 1.3% [6]. - Fundamentals: The PVC transaction was deadlocked, the demand was weak, and the upstream ex - factory price dropped by 10 - 20 again. The supply was at a high level, the production in December was 2.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. It is expected that the start - up rate in the fourth quarter will be 78 - 80%. The start - up rate of downstream factories decreased to about 36% and began to weaken seasonally. The real estate in November was weak, and the new construction and completion decreased by 18% year - on - year. The social inventory increased at a high level, the PVC social inventory on January 16 was 1.1441 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70% and a year - on - year increase of 48.60%. The price of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide increased by 100 to 2,500, and the PVC price was 4,560 in East China and 4,570 in South China [6][7]. - Trading strategy: Sell 05 and buy 09 for reverse arbitrage [7]. PTA - Market performance: The PX CFR China price was 888 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 7,206 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price in East China was 5,085 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was - 70 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: For PX, multiple refineries increased the load, and the Zhejiang Petrochemical CDU was under maintenance, so the PX load decreased slightly, and the overall supply remained at a high historical level. Overseas, the Korean and Vietnamese devices had plans to increase the load, and the import supply increased. The gasoline cracking profit weakened, and the blending oil demand off - season arbitrage window was closed. The PTA supply was at a high level, and Yisheng New Materials and Ineos were under maintenance in January. The overall load of polyester factories decreased, the comprehensive inventory pressure was not large, the profit of polyester products was compressed, the downstream entered the off - season, the orders weakened, and the start - up decreased rapidly. Overall, both PX and PTA had inventory accumulation [7]. - Trading strategy: The strong PX expectation supports the price. In the short - term, it may have回调 pressure due to the terminal demand. The medium - term long - allocation view remains unchanged. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally, the medium - term supply - demand pattern improves, and the processing fee has reached a high level. Take profits appropriately [7]. Methanol - Market performance: Affected by geopolitical factors before, methanol rose significantly. Recently, the geopolitical sentiment declined, and methanol showed a fluctuating adjustment trend. As of January 21, the methanol 05 contract closed at 2,209 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, as of January 16, 2026, the domestic methanol device start - up load remained above 90%, and the start - up load in the northwest region was about 97%. From the supply - side trend, the new device maintenance plans of coal - to - methanol enterprises are few, and the overall production is likely to remain at a high level. Pay attention to the resumption of production progress of natural - gas - to - methanol devices. As of the week of January 16, the domestic methanol port inventory was 1.432 million tons. The market expects that the port inventory will remain at a high level in January, which will strongly suppress the near - month contract price. At the same time, the methanol loading volume in Iran in January is expected to be at a low level and will decrease significantly month - on - month [7]. - Trading strategy: Currently, multiple Iranian devices are under maintenance. The winter gas restriction in Iran reduces methanol production, which will affect China's methanol imports. At the same time, the port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the positive news is gradually fermenting. However, the Iranian geopolitical issue is gradually cooling down. It is expected that the recent trend will be a fluctuating adjustment [7]. Glass - Market performance: The fg05 contract closed at 1,039, a decline of 2.3% [7]. - Fundamentals: The glass transaction center of gravity was stable, and the demand gradually weakened. On the supply side, there were many production cuts, the daily melting volume of glass was 15 tons, a year - on - year growth rate of - 5%. The inventory decreased from a high level. On January 15, the upstream inventory was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51% and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The order days of downstream deep - processing enterprises were