策略参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 品种观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：由于美国政府停摆，美农报告暂停发布，美豆期价在缺乏报告数据的指引下，对国内市场的关 联影响有所减弱。国内现货采购谨慎，市场呈现"高库存、弱消耗"格局。下游看好中期价格修复空间，积 极布局远月合同锁定成本。由于大豆现货价格已逼近成本线，油厂压榨亏损，挺价意愿强烈。短期豆粕震 荡格局不改。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 < ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-10-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏弱 | 中期 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 偏空因素主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：下跌 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 投资咨询 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term and intraday views of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term views are all "oscillating". The overall market sentiment is weak as the National Day holiday approaches, with market volatility decreasing and funds showing risk - aversion [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, the market sentiment has weakened, the price fluctuation of soybean products has narrowed, the domestic supply pressure remains unresolved, the downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, the inventory pressure of oil mills' soybean meal still exists, and the negative basis has not been repaired [5] Palm Oil (P) - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly. The sharp decline in international oil prices has dragged down the oil market. Although the palm oil industry chain still has support, as the holiday approaches, market funds are risk - averse, resulting in the short - term palm oil futures price oscillating weakly [8] Others - For soybean meal 2601, factors affecting the market include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand. For soybean oil 2601, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. For palm 2601, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 备注： 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-29 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 品种晨会纪要 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。随着前期甲醇期价持续走低以后，利空情绪有所释放。上周五夜 盘国内甲醇期货 2601 合约维 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-09-26 品种晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 2511 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近日美联储如期降息 25 个基点，符合市场预期，不过点阵图显示 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several agricultural commodity futures, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, with most of them being "oscillating and moderately strong" [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is oscillating, intraday view and reference view are oscillating and moderately strong [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic market supply pressure is increasing, and concerns about short - term supply pressure persist. As the National Day holiday approaches, market funds tend to trade short - term logic with poor stability. Without unexpected risk factors, market volatility may decline before the holiday, and a rebound may occur after short - term market sentiment is released [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is oscillating, intraday view and reference view are oscillating and moderately strong [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Due to increased production and decreased exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons. The EU's one - year delay in implementing the anti - deforestation law has eased the decline of Malaysian palm oil, and palm oil futures prices have rebounded slightly [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is oscillating, intraday view and reference view are oscillating and moderately strong [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Core Insights - The report indicates a strong upward trend in crude oil prices due to renewed geopolitical risks, particularly related to ongoing attacks in Ukraine and potential sanctions against Russia [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report presents a short-term and medium-term outlook for crude oil, both indicating a "震荡偏强" (strong oscillation) trend, with a specific focus on the recent geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply [5]. Price Movements - On the recent trading day, the domestic crude oil futures contract (2511) saw a slight increase of 1.47%, closing at 482.3 yuan per barrel, suggesting a continuation of the strong oscillation trend in the following days [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights that the ongoing military actions in Ukraine against Russian oil facilities and the potential for extended sanctions from the U.S. are key drivers of the current market dynamics, contributing to the upward pressure on crude oil prices [5].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced overall weak fluctuations with significant differentiation among varieties on September 19 [1] - The industrial silicon market saw a notable increase, leading the commodity market with a rise of over 3.6% due to tightening supply [1][3] - The shipping market, particularly the European shipping index, faced a sharp decline of over 6%, marking it as the worst performer in the commodity market [1][5] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Analysis - Industrial silicon prices rose by 3.62% on September 19, supported by a decrease in supply, with a daily increase of over 26,000 contracts [3] - The national industrial silicon production is estimated at approximately 84,000 tons this week, down from 85,100 tons the previous week, indicating a continued decline [3] - Concerns about production cuts in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan have increased, with some companies planning to reduce output after the peak water season [3] Group 3: Protein Meal Market - The protein meal market saw a collective rebound, with the main contract for rapeseed meal rising by 2.15% and soybean meal increasing by 0.43% [4] - The domestic soybean meal market shows strong bottom support, while supply bottlenecks in rapeseed are limiting the downside potential for meal prices [4] Group 4: Shipping Market Dynamics - The European shipping index faced significant downward pressure, with the main contract dropping 6% due to increased pressure on airlines to secure cargo amid a shipping off-season [5] - The current shipping market sentiment is pessimistic, influenced by a lack of sufficient supply reduction compared to the previous year [5] - Despite the current downturn, there are expectations that the decline in shipping rates may slow down after the National Day holiday, with hopes for a rebound in cargo volume towards the end of the year [5] Group 5: Polyester Chain Weakness - The polyester chain products, including PTA and PX, collectively weakened, with both experiencing declines of over 2% [6] - The demand for downstream products like bottle flakes is transitioning into an off-season, contributing to the overall weakness in the polyester market [6] - The continued low international oil prices and a nearly 2% drop in domestic crude oil prices are exerting additional pressure on the PX and PTA markets [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。随着近日美联储 9 月降息预期兑现以后，本周四夜盘国内甲醇期 货 2601 合约维持震荡偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **View**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak; Overall: weakly running [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The dot - plot shows that there will be two more rate cuts in Q4 2025 and only one in 2026, slower than the market's current pricing. With the fulfillment of previous bullish expectations and the rubber market in a state of increasing supply, the RU 2601 contract showed an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday night, with the price slightly down 0.99% to 15475 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **View**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak; Overall: weakly running [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The dot - plot shows that there will be two more rate cuts in Q4 2025 and only one in 2026, slower than the market's current pricing. After the previous bullish expectations were fulfilled, the BR 2511 contract maintained an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday night, with the price slightly down 0.26% to 11425 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [6].