Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report systematically reviews the cycle characteristics and causes of the commodity bull market, indicating that the core driving force for the excellent performance of commodities during the economic prosperity phase comes from the expansion of real - economy demand and rising inflation [3]. - The commodity index timing strategy 2.0 has limitations such as high noise in trading signals during deflation and insufficient capture of phased rebound markets. The newly developed multi - factor timing strategy significantly improves sensitivity to rebound markets and capture efficiency, with optimized signal quality and better overall timing results [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs "Commodity Bull Market" Cycle Review and Cause Analysis - **"Commodity Bull Market" Cause Analysis**: During economic growth, the demand of major commodity - consuming industries like manufacturing, construction, and transportation increases, directly promoting the expansion of the commodity market and causing price increases. Commodities are effective anti - inflation investment tools during economic prosperity due to their high correlation with inflation [6]. - **Commodity Market Performance in the Economic Cycle**: Using the macro - economic prosperity index year - on - year data and CPI year - on - year data as indicators for economic growth and inflation growth, it is confirmed that the commodity market has the best returns during the prosperity phase [7]. Limitation Analysis and Timing Factor Formulation Method - **Review of Commodity Index Strategy 1.0 and 2.0**: Strategy 1.0's inflation index based on PMI ex - factory prices leads official PPI data by about 10 days but lags behind the commodity futures index by about a month. Strategy 2.0 optimizes Strategy 1.0, and the monthly average of the commodity futures index is highly consistent with the inflation index, providing a leading signal for inflation paths and leading official PPI data by about 40 days in PPI trend information acquisition [10][11]. - **Limitations of Commodity Index Strategy 2.0**: In the deflation phase, the trading signals generated by the strategy are noisy, and the ability to capture phased rebound markets is limited, resulting in missed profit opportunities [14]. - **Formulation Method of Commodity Index Multi - factor Timing Strategy Factors**: - **Commodity Futures Index Trend Timing Factor**: Use the commodity index itself as the price - level factor and combine it with economic index timing [15]. - **Supply Timing Factor**: Use the PMI new order index and PMI production index to represent the supply and demand sides, and combine them with PPI trend prediction [18]. - **Demand Timing Factor**: Similar to the supply timing factor, it combines relevant indicators and PPI trend prediction [20]. - **Supply - Demand Composite Timing Factor**: Based on the weights in the manufacturing PMI index, sum the weighted new order index and production index and normalize them with a total weight of 55% [21]. - **Predicted Supply Timing Factor**: Select 14 high - frequency supply - side indicators to fit the PMI production index, with monthly rolling fitting and historical back - testing starting from July 2021 [23]. - **Predicted Demand Timing Factor**: Select 16 high - frequency demand - side indicators to fit the PMI new order index, with monthly rolling fitting and historical back - testing starting from July 2021 [25]. - **Predicted Supply - Demand Composite Timing Factor**: Weight and sum the predicted supply and demand timing factors and then normalize them with a total weight of 55% [27]. Commodity Index Multi - factor Timing Strategy Net Value Back - testing - Combine the 7 timing factors introduced above with the timing factor in the previous report to construct 8 equal - weighted scoring factors. When the total score of the 8 factors exceeds 4 points, a long signal for the commodity index is triggered. The multi - factor timing strategy shows obvious timing effects on the commodity index, and its timing effect is more sensitive than that of the commodity index timing strategy 2.0, effectively tracking phased rebound markets even in a downward price cycle [29]. Summary - The research first reviews the previous research conclusions that the commodity market performs well during economic prosperity and has developed commodity index timing strategies 1.0 and 2.0. To address the limitations of Strategy 2.0, 7 new timing factors are constructed and combined with the original factor to form an 8 - factor equal - weighted scoring system. The multi - factor timing strategy significantly improves the ability to identify phased rebounds in the downward cycle, with better signal sensitivity and stability [31].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：巴西新豆收割进度快于往年，且 2 月出口预期强劲，丰产预期不断强化，持续挤压美豆出口空 间。市场焦点转向即将公布的美国农业部月度供需报告，分析师普遍预计报告将微幅下调美豆年末库存， 但同时上调巴西大豆产量预估，全球供应宽松基调未改。国内市场，随着春节假期临近，大部分大豆压榨 工厂已陆续停机，油厂开机率显著下滑。尽管豆粕产出减少，但节前饲料企业备货已基本完成，现货采购 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 品种观点参考 期货研究报告 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：市场对中国采购美豆的预期以及美国生物柴油税收抵免政策落地提振了美豆油需求，为市场注 入乐观情绪，支撑美豆价格。但全球大豆供应充裕的基本面压力更为沉重，成为压制价格的核心力量。巴 西大豆丰产预期持续强化，且收割进度快于往年，意味着未来数月进口大豆到港量将维持高位。国内港口 及油厂大豆、豆粕库存同比近乎翻倍，处于历史高位，而下游养殖业普遍亏损，且春节前备货已近尾声， 需求疲软。短期来看，市场缺乏 ...

刚刚，国内商品期货市场开盘后，主力合约多数下跌，其中贵金属、有色金属板块大幅下挫！ 继沪银上周五夜盘跌停后，今日铂、钯、锡也纷纷跌停。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)↑ | 淵珠 | 淵速 | 买价 | 卖价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ag2604 | 沪银2604 | 24832 | -17.00% | -5087 | 0.00 | | 24832 | | pd2606 | 舞2606 | 413.70 | -16.00% | -78.80 | 0.00 | | 413.70 | | pt2606 | 铂2606 | 552.15 | -16.00% | -105.15 | 0.00 | | 552.15 | | au2604 | 沪金2604 | 1060.38 | -11.41% | -136.54 | 0.46 | 1060.06 | 1060.40 | | sn2603 | 沪锡2603 | 392650 | -11.00% | -48530 | 0.00 | | 392650 | | cu2603 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic large feed groups have completed pre - holiday stockpiling in advance, with weak subsequent purchasing willingness. The market is interested in far - month basis contracts. Near the Spring Festival, soybean meal inventory will be passively reduced, but the large supply of Brazilian new crops and sufficient domestic forward arrivals will suppress price increases. The decline of US soybeans will also weaken the support for domestic soybean meal futures prices [5]. - Palm oil futures prices are running strongly driven by import costs and market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the continuous procurement of near - month shipments, which will limit the strengthening space of the basis, and the near - month basis may decline. After continuous rises, the short - term palm oil futures prices will experience increased high - level volatility [7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory weak; Reference view: oscillatory weak [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The completion of pre - holiday stockpiling by large feed groups, interest in far - month basis contracts, passive inventory reduction near the Spring Festival, large Brazilian new - crop supply, sufficient domestic forward arrivals, and the decline of US soybeans [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillatory weak; Reference view: oscillatory weak [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The upward trend driven by import costs and market sentiment, the expected supply loosening due to near - month shipment procurement, and high - level volatility after continuous rises [7].

Group 1: Market Overview and Investment Strategies - The 2026 cross-market investment strategy conference highlighted the acceleration of sector rotation in investment markets, presenting multiple investment opportunities [1] - The chairman of Xunuo Asset emphasized the profound changes in capital markets since 2024, indicating a transition from "policy bottom" to "market bottom," with notable performance in the sci-tech and high-end manufacturing sectors [1] - The commodity futures market, particularly lithium carbonate, gold, and silver, has shown independent trends and distinct sector rotation characteristics [1] - Investment strategies should leverage financial tools like stock index futures for risk hedging and enhanced returns, especially in an increasingly institutionalized A-share market [1] Group 2: Economic Insights and Sector Focus - Dr. Qiao Yongyuan noted that rising global debt pressures could lead to significant changes in asset prices, with a potential decline in the real estate market's traditional role as an economic growth engine [2] - The application of AI, particularly in sectors like healthcare, is expected to emerge as a new economic growth point, prompting investors to rethink new investment opportunities [2] - Li Xudong recommended focusing on mid-cap stock index futures like CSI 500 and CSI 1000, avoiding heavily weighted indices like CSI 300 and SSE 50 due to their concentrated chip characteristics [2] Group 3: Silver and Lithium Market Analysis - The price of silver has surged since June last year, driven by factors such as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the dollar's credibility and increased industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [3] - Silver has experienced a supply deficit for five consecutive years, contributing to its price increase, with expectations for continued upward trends due to strong industrial demand and supply constraints [3] - The lithium carbonate market is anticipated to maintain strong pricing due to macroeconomic and industrial factors, with a significant demand surge driven by the global energy transition and China's manufacturing upgrade [3] Group 4: Lithium Battery Industry Trends - The lithium battery market is witnessing robust demand, particularly in the energy storage sector, which is a crucial part of national energy strategy and global energy transition [4] - Recent policies, such as solid waste management guidelines and export tax rebates, may have short-term impacts on the lithium industry, but the long-term trend favors companies expanding internationally [5] - The current supply constraints in lithium resources, coupled with strong demand, indicate that the upward cycle for lithium carbonate prices is not yet over, with orders extending into 2027 [5] Group 5: Trading Strategies and Market Dynamics - A roundtable discussion among experienced traders focused on establishing trading order amid market chaos, emphasizing the need for a robust rule system and execution discipline to manage risks [6] - The participants agreed that while market disorder is inevitable, successful traders can create internal trading order to counter external uncertainties, highlighting the importance of emotional control during losses [6]

2026年01月22日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 招商评论 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.86%，收于 24155 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-295 元/吨， LME 价格 3135 美元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅上升。 交易策略：消费端淡季特征显著，库存延续累积，供需矛盾叠加市场情绪趋于谨慎，铝价短期维持震荡调整。 风险提示：海外供应扰动、投机资金获利了结。 氧 化 铝 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.04%，收于 2672 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-35 元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂运行产能维持稳定。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产。 交易策略：现货价格企稳，但远期供应过剩压力较大，叠加到期仓单集中注销，氧化铝盘面价格维持偏弱走 势。 风险提示：几内亚矿端扰动，大规模集中减产，反内卷政策刺激。 锌 市场表现：1 月 21 日日盘，锌、铅主力合约收于 24350 元/吨,17115 元/吨,较前一交易日收盘价分别-+60,-+110 元/克。国内 0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 19 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall situation of the beans and oils market in the short - term is weak, with the prices of various varieties showing a trend of weak shocks. The beans market is under the pressure of weak reality and policy uncertainty, lacking upward driving forces. The palm oil market also lacks a one - sided driving force and continues to fluctuate [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Bean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: Oscillating; Medium - term: Oscillating; Intraday: Oscillating weakly; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The export prospects of US soybeans are weak, and the crop weather in Brazil is ideal. The USDA report is neutral to bearish, putting pressure on US soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans is abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is at a high level in the same period, restricting the rise of spot prices. The rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to policy - related factors. Overall, the beans market is under continuous pressure of weak reality, and there is policy uncertainty, lacking upward driving forces [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: Oscillating; Medium - term: Oscillating; Intraday: Oscillating weakly; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Indonesia confirmed that it will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026, maintaining B40, which weakens the previous market expectations and causes the price to correct from the high level, but the decline is limited. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil to 12.5% starting from March next year, which may support the export of Malaysian palm oil. The market's focus has shifted to the US biodiesel policy. In the short - term, palm oil lacks a one - sided driving force and continues to fluctuate [7]. 3.3 Other Varieties - **Soybean Oil 2605**: Short - term, medium - term and intraday views are all oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include the cost support of US soybeans, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - **Palm 2605**: Short - term, medium - term and intraday views are all oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw most contracts rise during the night session, with energy products leading the gains, particularly fuel which increased by 3.13% [1] - Chemical products mostly experienced increases, with polypropylene rising by 1.23% [1] - Non-metallic building materials also saw a majority increase, with PVC up by 0.70% [1] Group 2 - Agricultural products generally rose, with corn increasing by 0.26% [1] - The black series of commodities mostly rose, with rebar increasing by 0.19% [1] - Oilseeds and oils faced declines, with palm oil dropping by 1.28% [1]