商品板块周期轮动
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金信期货日刊-20260310
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 23:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the regular rotation of the economic cycle and the influence of the medium - term inventory cycle, bulk commodities experience a rotational upward trend in the order of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy and chemicals - agricultural products" [4] - After the US - Israel raid on Iran on February 28, the start of subsequent sectors may be advanced. The current strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is fully expected by the market, while oil prices and sectors related to China's domestic economic cycle still have room for rotation and upward expectations [5] - In 2026, the chemical sector is worth looking forward to. With the implementation of China's "anti - involution" policy, the exit of production capacity in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and the transmission of crude oil costs, chemical products will see a market of cost transmission and supply optimization [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 What is the commodity sector cycle rotation? - Due to the regular rotation of the economic cycle and the influence of the medium - term inventory cycle, bulk commodities experience a rotational upward trend from "precious metals - industrial metals - energy and chemicals - agricultural products" [4] 3.2 Which stage has the current sector rotation reached? - After the US - Israel raid on Iran on February 28, the crude oil system and shipping index hit the daily limit this week. The subsequent sector start may be advanced. Although emergencies may disrupt the rhythm and intensity of rotation, the underlying logic remains [5] - The strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is fully expected by the market, while oil prices and sectors related to China's domestic economic cycle still have room for rotation and upward expectations [5] 3.3 Which sectors should be focused on in the future? - Historically, precious metals often start first, followed by non - ferrous metals and energy - chemical sectors, and the agricultural product sector is usually lagging and appears in the second half of the cycle [6] - In 2026, the chemical sector is promising. With relevant policies and cost factors, chemical products will have a market of cost transmission and supply optimization, and varieties with less production capacity expansion and strong export expectations will perform better [6] 3.4 Technical Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - There is an adjustment requirement in the morning, and the large - cycle will continue to fluctuate within a range. Tomorrow's early - morning adjustment is a good low - buying opportunity [9] 3.4.2 Gold - The gold daily - level red - green line turns bearish. After opening lower, it fluctuated higher and then fell back at the end of the session. It should be treated with a high - short strategy [14] 3.4.3 Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm, with a long - term supply - loosening expectation. The demand side needs time for the terminal demand to start. Technically, with the recent high - spirited commodity sentiment and the disk rising for three consecutive days, a bullish view can be maintained [15][16] 3.4.4 Glass - The daily melting change is small, and the factory inventory accumulates during the seasonal off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. Technically, if it breaks through the previous high, the upward space can be further opened, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [18][19] 3.4.5 Methanol - China imports about 14 million tons of methanol annually, accounting for just over 10% of the total consumption. About 60% of the imports come from Iran, and the influence of Iranian supplies on the disk pricing is about 50%. Any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic disk [21] 3.4.6 Pulp - Most pulp and paper equipment has returned to normal production, with individual equipment under maintenance. The domestic port inventory continues to accumulate, putting pressure on prices. The downstream paper mills' operating load is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support the pulp price [25]