啤酒行业改革

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燕京啤酒(000729):2025年半年报点评:量价表现优于行业,扣非利润超预告上限
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-14 03:07
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 12.51 yuan [7]. Core Views - The company has outperformed the industry in terms of both volume and price, with a significant increase in non-recurring net profit exceeding expectations [1][4]. - The company's beer revenue grew by 6.9% year-on-year in H1 2025, with sales volume increasing by 2% to 2.35 million kiloliters, while the total production of major beer companies in China decreased by 0.3% [2]. - The company’s mid-to-high-end product revenue increased by 9.3% to 5.54 billion yuan, accounting for 70% of total beer revenue, indicating a strong growth trajectory for its flagship product U8 [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 8.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.103 billion yuan, up 45.45% year-on-year [1]. - The non-recurring net profit for H1 2025 was 1.036 billion yuan, reflecting a 39.91% increase year-on-year, with the second quarter showing a total revenue of 4.731 billion yuan and a net profit of 938 million yuan [1]. - The company’s non-recurring net profit margin improved by 2.9 percentage points to 12.1%, driven by a 2.8% increase in beer cost per ton and a 1.0 percentage point increase in gross margin [3]. Future Outlook - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 6.5%, 5.3%, and 4.5% respectively, with net profits expected to grow by 52.5%, 22.0%, and 18.1% [4][6]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the national expansion of its flagship product U8 and ongoing structural improvements, which will enhance profit margins [4].