1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamentals and liquidity situation still support the bond market. The central bank's sudden restart of Treasury bond trading has set a temporary ceiling on yields and boosted market sentiment. However, considering the structural highlights in the domestic economy and the improved inflation expectations, the room for continuous decline in yields should be viewed rationally. Before the expectation of interest rate cuts rises, short - end yields may face constraints from capital prices, and factors such as the pending new regulations on bond fund redemption fees may suppress bond market sentiment. The bond market is unlikely to have a trending market, but ultra - long bonds may offer opportunities for price rebounds, and holding some long positions in bond futures for hedging purposes is also necessary [4][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, the sentiment in the bond market recovered. By the end of the month, the central bank's announcement of restarting Treasury bond trading further boosted market sentiment. As of the mid - day on October 31, the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL increased by 0.16%, 0.36%, 0.69%, and 2.22% respectively within the month. Driven by favorable factors, the valuation of bond futures increased. As of the close on October 30, the IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were approximately 1.9288%, 1.7475%, 1.6851%, and 1.5231% respectively [3]. 3.2 Market Logic梳理 3.2.1 Economic Data Remains Differentiated, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" Defines the Development Direction - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the second quarter, basically in line with market expectations. The cumulative GDP growth rate in the first three quarters was 5.2% year - on - year, meaning that the economy only needs to grow by 4.5% in the fourth quarter to achieve the annual target. In September, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and industrial added value increased by 6.5% year - on - year. However, domestic demand indicators improved limitedly. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. High - frequency data was also differentiated. The sales of new and second - hand houses were weak, but the sales of some durable goods such as passenger cars showed certain resilience. The market focused on the Fourth Plenary Session communique and the "15th Five - Year Plan" at home and the development of the new round of Sino - US trade disputes abroad [9][10][18]. 3.2.2 Price Indicators Remain Low, but Inflation Expectations Have Improved - The GDP deflator in the third quarter was - 1.07%, still in the negative range. In September, CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, mainly dragged down by food prices. PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. However, due to the high base of industrial product prices starting from October last year, the year - on - year decline of PPI may widen again. Under the combined effect of policies and market expectations, the GDP deflator may turn positive at least temporarily, which suppresses the performance of the bond market, especially long - term bonds [28][30][41]. 3.2.3 The Growth Rate of Social Financing Continues to Slow Down, and the Inflection Point of M1 Growth Rate Has Not Arrived - In September, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 300 billion yuan. Social financing increased by 3533.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan. The growth rate of M2 was 8.4% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, while the growth rate of M1 was 7.2% year - on - year, a 1.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. High - frequency data shows that credit supply in October may be mediocre, and the continuous rise of M1 growth rate is not favorable for the bond market [42][43][56]. 3.2.4 The Capital Market Is Stable and Loose, and the Central Bank Restarts Treasury Bond Trading - In October, the capital market was generally balanced and loose, but there was a seasonal tightening at the end of the month. The central bank increased reverse repurchase and MLF operations to release long - term liquidity. The central bank's governor announced the restart of Treasury bond trading in the open market, which boosted market expectations. The restart of Treasury bond trading is a part of the "moderately loose" monetary policy, reducing policy risks in the bond market. The scale and term of the central bank's bond - buying operations need attention [57][64][72]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The bond market is still supported by the current fundamentals and capital market conditions, but it is difficult to have a trending market. It is recommended to moderately participate in the game of price rebounds in ultra - long bonds and hold some long positions in bond futures for hedging. In terms of arbitrage, it is advisable to short the 30Y - 7Y term spread, short the current - next quarter inter - period spread, and pay attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of the TS contract [74][75][77]