四中全会宏观利好预期
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宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20251024
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:12
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Short - term outlook is bearish, medium - term is sideways, and the reference view is to wait and see. The core logic is the increasing expectation of Sino - US trade relaxation and the end of the Russia - Ukraine war, leading to strong profit - taking intentions among funds [1][3]. - Copper: Short - term, medium - term and intraday outlooks are bullish, and it is considered strong in the long run. The core logic is the recurrence of mine - end disturbances, a rapid increase in capital attention, and the intensification of Sino - US trade fluctuations. Also, there are macro - level positive expectations and supply contractions, although short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress prices [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price: Yesterday, the price of gold fluctuated and stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. New York gold reached above $4100, and Shanghai gold approached 950 yuan [3]. - Market situation: After a sharp short - term decline, the profit - taking intention of previous long - positions rose rapidly. The price of gold fell below the 10 - day moving average, breaking the short - term strong pattern [3]. - News: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th [3]. Copper - Price: Yesterday, the price of copper increased with rising positions, and the main contract price closed above the 86,000 - yuan mark at the end of the session [4]. - Market situation: In the afternoon, the market sentiment improved, with both commodities and stock indices rising. The market has strong positive macro - level expectations for the Fourth Plenary Session. The short - term upward momentum is strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4]. - Factors: Macro - level easing and supply contractions continue to drive up the price of copper, while short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress the price [4].