Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main reasons were the cooling of domestic anti - involution sentiment, the decline of the polysilicon futures price after a peak, and the negative growth of China's industrial enterprise profit growth rate again. The supply side remained in passive contraction, while the demand side showed mixed trends. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the spot market weakened gradually [2][6][10]. - Overall, Sino - US trade may start a new round of talks. The cooling of anti - involution sentiment and the negative profit growth of industrial enterprises in July dragged down the sentiment of the industrial product market. Technically, there was strong resistance at the 9000 level on the futures price chart, and the willingness of funds to enter the market was not strong after the cooling of anti - involution sentiment. It was expected that the futures price would have a risk of further correction in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | Price on Aug 29 | Price on Aug 22 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 8390.00 | 8745.00 | - 355.00 | - 4.06% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 spot | 9050.00 | 9250.00 | - 200.00 | - 2.16% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 spot | 8950.00 | 9050.00 | - 100.00 | - 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9400.00 | 9600.00 | - 200.00 | - 2.08% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 10300.00 | 10550.00 | - 250.00 | - 2.37% | Yuan/ton | | Organic silicon DMC spot | 10750.00 | 10750.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 47.00 | 46.00 | 1.00 | 2.17% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 54.1 | 54.3 | - 0.2 | - 0.37% | Ten thousand tons | [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, and from January to July, the cumulative decline was 1.7%. However, the profits of high - tech manufacturing industries grew rapidly, with a significant leading role. In July, the profits of high - tech manufacturing industries turned from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared with June [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of August 28, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas of industrial silicon remained at 293, and the overall furnace - opening rate rose slightly to 36.8%. In terms of demand, polysilicon trading was frequent at the end of August, with increased trading volume and significantly reduced inventory. Due to industry self - discipline, the production schedule in September would continue to decline. Small - scale silicon wafer enterprises sold goods at low prices to reduce inventory pressure, while large - scale enterprises increased their demand for silicon material procurement. Photovoltaic cells followed the raw material price and rose slightly. The market preference for large - size and high - efficiency battery cells increased, and the supply of relevant enterprises was tight, but the terminal demand did not improve significantly. The component price increased slightly, with continuous strengthening cost support, but still needed to compete for downstream market orders to maintain production, and the competition pattern was fierce. The distributed projects faced the dilemma of declining yields, and it was expected that the photovoltaic terminal market would face the dilemma of shrinking demand under the influence of anti - involution policies, which would drag down the industrial silicon futures price and limit its rebound space [8]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of August 29, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 541,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. The increase in social inventory was mainly due to weak demand in the off - season. As of August 22, the registered warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise to 50,453 lots, totaling 252,000 tons. After the exchange issued a new standard for delivery products, most of the 4 - series brand warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5 - series warehouse receipts that met the new delivery standard were actively registered and stored, becoming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored was increasing day by day. The warehouse receipt inventory had remained at around 50,000 tons recently because the production reduction expectations of enterprises were continuously strengthened under the call of the photovoltaic industry to actively respond to the national anti - involution policy [9]. Industry News - On August 25, the Guizhou Provincial Development and Reform Commission released an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on the "Implementation Plan (Trial) for Deepening the Market - Oriented Reform of New Energy On - grid Electricity Prices in Guizhou Province". The document clarified the electricity volume scale, mechanism electricity price, and implementation period of the new energy sustainable development price settlement mechanism [11]. - The photovoltaic enterprises' plan to list in Hong Kong reached a small peak this month. After Yingfa Ruineng, the third - largest battery cell manufacturer, announced on August 20 that it had submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, another leading company in the photovoltaic and energy storage field, Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. (300274.SZ), also announced today that it was planning to issue H - shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Its semi - annual report showed that in the first half of the year, the company achieved an operating income of 43.533 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 7.735 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 55.97%. The increase in overseas market revenue was considered an important reason for the profit growth. During the reporting period, the company achieved an overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, China) of 25.379 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 88.32%, accounting for 58.30% of the total revenue. In the same period of the previous year, the overseas market revenue accounted for 43.44%. During the reporting period, the global demand for photovoltaic and energy storage markets continued to grow steadily. According to third - party data, the global newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 310 GWac, a year - on - year increase of 60%, and the major global photovoltaic markets maintained a growth trend, with emerging markets performing prominently. In terms of energy storage, driven by factors such as the further increase in the global renewable energy penetration rate, continuous cost reduction, and gradual improvement of the revenue mechanism, the global energy storage demand continued to maintain a high - growth trend. According to third - party data, the global lithium - ion energy storage installed capacity reached 109 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68% [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views of the Reports 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Futures may have an upward trend due to limited production growth and expected lower - than - estimated month - end inventory. Long - term view is cautiously bullish for Malaysian palm oil and oscillatingly bullish for domestic palm oil [2]. - Soybean oil: Affected by US biodiesel policy with uncertainties. CBOT soybean oil shows range - bound adjustment. Domestic spot basis quotes may be supported, and there is potential for basis quotes to rise if factory inventories decrease [2]. 2. Corn and Corn Starch - Short - term: Supply and demand are both weak, with the market in a weak and oscillating state. Spring corn listing, old - grain selling, and import auctions increase supply, while demand is sluggish [4]. - Medium - term: New - season corn cost is lower, and with good growth, supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant, and the market value may move towards the new - season cost [4]. 3. Sugar - International: Raw sugar is suppressed by expected supply increase but has a risk of production downward revision in Brazil. It is expected to trade in the 15 - 17 cents/lb range in the short term [8]. - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillatingly weak as the supply is becoming more abundant despite some digestion of import increase expectations [8]. 4. Live Hogs - Spot prices are stable with a slight downward trend. Suggest waiting and watching. If there is room to reduce the slaughter weight, there may be support for the far - month contract, and small - scale long positions in the far - month 01 contract can be considered below 14,000 [9]. 5. Cotton - Short - term: Domestic cotton prices may trade in a range as old - crop inventory is tight and the issuance of sliding - scale tariffs is lower than expected. - Long - term: New - season cotton production is expected to increase steadily, putting pressure on prices after new cotton hits the market [11]. 6. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to remain bearish due to sufficient supply and slow downstream digestion [14]. 7. Meal - The decline space of domestic meal is limited as the cost side provides good support. The global soybean supply in the fourth quarter is not abundant, and the cost support for domestic meal is still strong [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On August 26, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,740 yuan, the futures price of Y2601 was 8,536 yuan, and the basis was 204 yuan. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu in August was 01 + 220 [2]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong on August 26 was 9,470 yuan, down 1.56% from the previous day. The futures price of P2601 was 9,424 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis was 46 yuan, down 65.15%. The import cost and profit in Guangzhou Port in January showed a decline [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on August 26 was 10,020 yuan, up 0.40%. The futures price of OI601 was 9,941 yuan, down 0.57%. The basis was 79 yuan, up 538.89% [2]. - **Spreads**: Soybean oil 09 - 01 spread increased by 66.67%, palm oil 09 - 01 spread increased by 19.15%, and rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread increased by 12.15%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 17.05% [2]. 2. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On August 26, the price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port was 2,158 - 2,260 yuan, the basis was 102 yuan, and the 11 - 3 spread was - 24 yuan. Import cost decreased, and import profit increased slightly [4]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 was 2,475 yuan, down 0.24%. The spot prices in Changchun and Weifang decreased. The basis and 11 - 3 spread both declined [4]. 3. Sugar - **Futures**: On August 26, the price of sugar 2601 was 5,632 yuan, down 0.98%, and the price of sugar 2509 was 5,678 yuan, down 0.73%. ICE raw sugar主力 was at 16.42 cents/lb, up 0.18% [8]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in Nanning and other places decreased slightly. Imported Brazilian sugar prices (both quota - in and quota - out) decreased [8]. - **Industry situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, while industrial inventories decreased. Sugar imports increased significantly [8]. 4. Live Hogs - **Futures**: The price of the main contract of live hogs decreased slightly. The 11 - 1 spread was - 340 yuan, down 3.03% [9]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions were stable with a slight decline. Slaughter volume increased slightly, and self - breeding and外购 breeding profits improved [9]. 5. Cotton - **Futures**: On August 26, the price of cotton 2509 was 13,780 yuan, down 0.14%, and the price of cotton 2601 was 14,100 yuan, down 0.14%. ICE US cotton主力 was at 66.67 cents/lb, down 1.05% [11]. - **Spot**: Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index increased, while FC Index decreased. The basis between 3128B and 01 contract increased by 11.92% [11]. - **Industry situation**: Commercial inventory decreased, import volume increased, and textile industry indicators showed mixed trends [11]. 6. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 2,916 yuan/500KG, down 1.19%, and the price of the egg 10 contract was 3,013 yuan/500KG, down 0.26% [13]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.19 yuan/jin, up 2.42%. The basis increased by 84.78% [13]. - **Related indicators**: Egg - chick prices decreased, and the egg - feed ratio increased. Breeding profits improved [13]. 7. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,050 yuan, down 0.33%. The futures price of M2601 was 3,081 yuan, down 1.15%. The basis was - 31 yuan, up 45.61%. Brazilian 10 - month shipping schedule's crushing profit increased by 81.7% [17]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,600 yuan, up 0.78%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2,526 yuan, down 0.82%. The basis was 74 yuan, up 124.24% [17]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan, up 0.76%. The futures price of the soybean - one main contract was 3,974 yuan, down 0.45%. The basis increased by 114.29% [17]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 10.62%, and the oil - meal ratio increased slightly [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is affected by various factors including international trade policies, weather, and supply - demand fundamentals. The market shows a complex situation with price increase, supply - side changes, and weak downstream demand [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main cotton contract closed with a small positive line this week. The closing price was 13,640 yuan per ton, up 55 points from last week's close [1] 2. News Situation - The US's 50% tariff increase on India has brought uncertainty to Sino - US trade talks. The US cotton boll - setting rate lags behind the five - year average by 1%, new cotton listing in Pakistan has slowed with production estimates lowered, and the harvest progress in Brazil's main producing areas is slow. Domestically, the low - grade lint cotton inventory on the supply side decreased rapidly last week, and the temperature in Xinjiang remained high this week [2] 3. Fundamental Situation - In terms of supply, domestic cotton de - stocking was obvious this week. On the demand side, downstream textile enterprises are in the off - season with a declining operating rate and normal restocking. Cotton inventory decreased by 555 lots this week, and the cotton basis rate is around 9.1% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, both internal and external environments changed. Internally, the "anti - involution" theme cooled, and the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation. Upstream resources retreated, with coal and non - ferrous metals leading the decline. Externally, the third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed remained unchanged but had increasing differences on interest rate cuts. Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] 3. Summary by Related Content This Week's Review - Internal changes: The "anti - involution" theme cooled, the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation, and upstream resources retreated [2] - External changes: The third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed had increasing differences on interest rate cuts [2] - Market performance: Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] This Week's Prediction Conclusion - The model predicts that next week, the basis of IH and IM will weaken, while the basis of IF and IC will strengthen [3] Recent Prediction Conclusion - There are graphical data on the real and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but specific conclusions are not explicitly summarized from the graphical content [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting emphasized capacity governance in key industries and the regulation of disorderly competition. Some long - position funds took early profit due to previous under - performing policies and over - hyped expectations. The Sino - US trade talks extended the tariff suspension period by 90 days. The market trend on Thursday and Friday after important events will affect the subsequent strength. Although the market dipped after the Politburo meeting announcement on Wednesday, it rebounded. The market continued to decline on Thursday, with coking coal hitting the daily limit down, and it's still uncertain whether it has stabilized. After the major uncertainty is removed, the market will trade based on the long - term logic [4] - For coking coal, mine production declined, downstream restocking enthusiasm was high, and spot transaction rates were at a high level. Mine inventories were continuously transferred to downstream, and steel mills' restocking speeded up slightly this week. For coke, after the third and fourth rounds of price increases were quickly implemented, the fifth round was postponed, but the expectation of further price increases remained. High blast furnace profits supported coke demand [4] - Considering the coking coal's recent trends and positions, short - term funds that entered the market after the 23rd are likely to be stopped out. The current position has dropped significantly, and the price has almost returned to the level before the 23rd. The coking coal's trend in recent days is crucial for determining the future price direction. After the market sentiment is released, the profit distribution logic in the industrial chain will be traded. After coking coal hit the daily limit down on Thursday, the black - commodity sector rebounded at night, indicating a warming sentiment. The short - term market will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and JM09 lightly, shift positions to the January contract as long - positions dominate the shift, and decide whether to increase positions after the outcome of the long - short battle is clear [4][5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Supply decreased slightly while demand increased. The operating rate of 523 mines was 86.9% (+0.83), and that of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51% (-0.8). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.61% (+0.71) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased while downstream inventory increased. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was 278.44 million tons (-60.63), and that of coal - washing plants was 175.61 million tons (-15.93). The inventory of 247 steel mills was 799.51 million tons (+8.41), and that of 230 coking enterprises was 841.21 million tons (+51.02). The port inventory was 292.34 million tons (-29.16) [2] Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal was 1150 yuan/ton (-0), and the active contract price was 1045.5 yuan/ton (-71.5). The basis was +124.5 yuan/ton (+71.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -89.5 yuan/ton (+26) [1] Coke Supply and Demand - Demand remained high, and supply increased slightly. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.61% (+0.71). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.81% (-0.08), and the daily average pig iron output was 242.23 million tons (-0.21) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased while downstream inventory increased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 50.12 million tons (-5.43), that of 247 steel mills was 639.98 million tons (+0.99), and the port inventory was 198.13 million tons (-0.98) [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton (+0). Some regions initiated the fifth round of price increases, and the active contract price was 1601 yuan/ton (-75.5). The basis was -74 yuan/ton (+75.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -53.5 yuan/ton (+10) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of probability thinking in investment, suggesting that investors should prepare for potential losses before entering a position, rather than being overly confident [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 449.2 billion yuan, with 214.8 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 234.4 billion yuan [2]. - The funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.36% and DR007 at approximately 1.56% [2]. - The weighted rates for various repo codes indicate a decline, with R001 at 1.40% (down 9 basis points) and R007 at 1.61% (down 1 basis point) [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.715% and fluctuated to around 1.72%, reflecting cautious sentiment in the bond market amid ongoing US-China trade talks [4]. - The article notes a significant shift in bond market sentiment, with the 10-year government bond futures showing volatility, indicating a potential disconnect between market expectations and economic realities [4]. - The article highlights concerns regarding declining rental prices for office spaces and a sharp drop in the number of kindergartens, suggesting a challenging economic environment [4].

Group 1 - The upcoming CPI report is expected to show a slight increase in inflation, particularly in goods inflation, due to companies gradually passing on higher import tariffs to consumers [1][5] - The market anticipates a year-on-year CPI increase to 2.5% from the previous 2.3%, with a monthly CPI rate holding steady at 0.2% and a core CPI monthly increase of 0.3%, marking the largest rise in four months [1][5] - Businesses are increasingly transferring tariff costs to consumers, with a significant portion of manufacturers and service providers fully passing on these costs through price increases [5][6] Group 2 - The inflation report will provide insights into the impact of tariffs, as investors remain cautious about rising inflation [3][5] - Consumer expectations regarding future inflation have eased, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.2% from 3.6% in April, and five-year expectations decreasing to 2.6% from 2.7% [6] - The CPI report is a critical data point ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates unless there is a significant unexpected rise in inflation [8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report maintains the view that the US dollar index will fluctuate weakly. Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated narrowly in the range of 98.5 - 99.5. The factors supporting the US dollar may be the still - resilient fundamentals and potential new trade agreements. However, the weak rebound of the US dollar may reflect that the mid - term cross - border capital rebalancing and increased foreign exchange hedging main lines remain unchanged. The mid - term logic of the current market may continue, and the short - term focus is on the progress of China - US trade talks, Trump's tariff legal opinion, other countries' trade agreement progress, and the performance of the US May CPI [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 US Dollar Index Core Logic - Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated narrowly between 98.5 and 99.5. The supporting factors were the resilient fundamentals and potential new trade agreements, but the weak rebound reflected the unchanged mid - term cross - border capital rebalancing and increased foreign exchange hedging [3]. - The mid - term logic of the market may continue, and the short - term focus is on the progress of China - US trade talks, Trump's tariff legal opinion, other countries' trade agreement progress, and the US May CPI. New trade agreements are beneficial for the upward repair of the US dollar index, and the legal opinion on Trump's tariffs may have limited impact. Inflation trends in the US May CPI will also affect the US dollar index [3]. 3.2 Economic Index Trends - The US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has declined [5]. - The difference between the US and European Citigroup Economic Surprise Indexes has declined [7]. - The long - term inflation expectation in the US remains at a certain level [7]. 3.3 Interest Rate and Volatility Index Trends - The difference in short - term interest rate expectations between the US and Europe fluctuated narrowly and then basically remained at the previous level [8]. - The VIX index oscillated at a low level [8]. 3.4 Position and Ratio Trends - CFTC net positions show that the US dollar maintains a net negative position [11]. - The gold - to - copper ratio has declined [13]. 3.5 Commodity Price Trends - Copper prices have oscillated upwards [15]. - Crude oil prices have risen from the bottom [15]. 3.6 Spread and Technical Indicator Trends - The US - Germany spread first declined and then rose with the US Treasury yield, and the US dollar index oscillated narrowly [19]. - The US dollar index runs below the 9 - day moving average, and the RSI indicator is not oversold [20].