油脂产业期现日报 | 田川 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 8月26日 | 8月25日 | 狱跌 | 张庆幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8740 | 8740 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 期价 | Y2601 | 8536 | 8536 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差 | Y2601 | 204 | 204 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏8月 | 01+220 | 01+200 | 20 | ு | | | 仓单 | | 15760 | 15760 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 8月26日 | 8月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 9470 | 9620 | -150 | -1.56% | | | 期价 | P2601 | 9424 | d488 | -64 | -0.67% | | | 墓差 | P2601 | 46 | 132 | -86 | -65.15% | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is affected by various factors including international trade policies, weather, and supply - demand fundamentals. The market shows a complex situation with price increase, supply - side changes, and weak downstream demand [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main cotton contract closed with a small positive line this week. The closing price was 13,640 yuan per ton, up 55 points from last week's close [1] 2. News Situation - The US's 50% tariff increase on India has brought uncertainty to Sino - US trade talks. The US cotton boll - setting rate lags behind the five - year average by 1%, new cotton listing in Pakistan has slowed with production estimates lowered, and the harvest progress in Brazil's main producing areas is slow. Domestically, the low - grade lint cotton inventory on the supply side decreased rapidly last week, and the temperature in Xinjiang remained high this week [2] 3. Fundamental Situation - In terms of supply, domestic cotton de - stocking was obvious this week. On the demand side, downstream textile enterprises are in the off - season with a declining operating rate and normal restocking. Cotton inventory decreased by 555 lots this week, and the cotton basis rate is around 9.1% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, both internal and external environments changed. Internally, the "anti - involution" theme cooled, and the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation. Upstream resources retreated, with coal and non - ferrous metals leading the decline. Externally, the third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed remained unchanged but had increasing differences on interest rate cuts. Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] 3. Summary by Related Content This Week's Review - Internal changes: The "anti - involution" theme cooled, the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation, and upstream resources retreated [2] - External changes: The third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed had increasing differences on interest rate cuts [2] - Market performance: Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] This Week's Prediction Conclusion - The model predicts that next week, the basis of IH and IM will weaken, while the basis of IF and IC will strengthen [3] Recent Prediction Conclusion - There are graphical data on the real and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but specific conclusions are not explicitly summarized from the graphical content [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting emphasized capacity governance in key industries and the regulation of disorderly competition. Some long - position funds took early profit due to previous under - performing policies and over - hyped expectations. The Sino - US trade talks extended the tariff suspension period by 90 days. The market trend on Thursday and Friday after important events will affect the subsequent strength. Although the market dipped after the Politburo meeting announcement on Wednesday, it rebounded. The market continued to decline on Thursday, with coking coal hitting the daily limit down, and it's still uncertain whether it has stabilized. After the major uncertainty is removed, the market will trade based on the long - term logic [4] - For coking coal, mine production declined, downstream restocking enthusiasm was high, and spot transaction rates were at a high level. Mine inventories were continuously transferred to downstream, and steel mills' restocking speeded up slightly this week. For coke, after the third and fourth rounds of price increases were quickly implemented, the fifth round was postponed, but the expectation of further price increases remained. High blast furnace profits supported coke demand [4] - Considering the coking coal's recent trends and positions, short - term funds that entered the market after the 23rd are likely to be stopped out. The current position has dropped significantly, and the price has almost returned to the level before the 23rd. The coking coal's trend in recent days is crucial for determining the future price direction. After the market sentiment is released, the profit distribution logic in the industrial chain will be traded. After coking coal hit the daily limit down on Thursday, the black - commodity sector rebounded at night, indicating a warming sentiment. The short - term market will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and JM09 lightly, shift positions to the January contract as long - positions dominate the shift, and decide whether to increase positions after the outcome of the long - short battle is clear [4][5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Supply decreased slightly while demand increased. The operating rate of 523 mines was 86.9% (+0.83), and that of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51% (-0.8). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.61% (+0.71) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased while downstream inventory increased. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was 278.44 million tons (-60.63), and that of coal - washing plants was 175.61 million tons (-15.93). The inventory of 247 steel mills was 799.51 million tons (+8.41), and that of 230 coking enterprises was 841.21 million tons (+51.02). The port inventory was 292.34 million tons (-29.16) [2] Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal was 1150 yuan/ton (-0), and the active contract price was 1045.5 yuan/ton (-71.5). The basis was +124.5 yuan/ton (+71.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -89.5 yuan/ton (+26) [1] Coke Supply and Demand - Demand remained high, and supply increased slightly. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.61% (+0.71). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.81% (-0.08), and the daily average pig iron output was 242.23 million tons (-0.21) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased while downstream inventory increased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 50.12 million tons (-5.43), that of 247 steel mills was 639.98 million tons (+0.99), and the port inventory was 198.13 million tons (-0.98) [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton (+0). Some regions initiated the fifth round of price increases, and the active contract price was 1601 yuan/ton (-75.5). The basis was -74 yuan/ton (+75.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -53.5 yuan/ton (+10) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of probability thinking in investment, suggesting that investors should prepare for potential losses before entering a position, rather than being overly confident [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 449.2 billion yuan, with 214.8 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 234.4 billion yuan [2]. - The funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.36% and DR007 at approximately 1.56% [2]. - The weighted rates for various repo codes indicate a decline, with R001 at 1.40% (down 9 basis points) and R007 at 1.61% (down 1 basis point) [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.715% and fluctuated to around 1.72%, reflecting cautious sentiment in the bond market amid ongoing US-China trade talks [4]. - The article notes a significant shift in bond market sentiment, with the 10-year government bond futures showing volatility, indicating a potential disconnect between market expectations and economic realities [4]. - The article highlights concerns regarding declining rental prices for office spaces and a sharp drop in the number of kindergartens, suggesting a challenging economic environment [4].

Group 1 - The upcoming CPI report is expected to show a slight increase in inflation, particularly in goods inflation, due to companies gradually passing on higher import tariffs to consumers [1][5] - The market anticipates a year-on-year CPI increase to 2.5% from the previous 2.3%, with a monthly CPI rate holding steady at 0.2% and a core CPI monthly increase of 0.3%, marking the largest rise in four months [1][5] - Businesses are increasingly transferring tariff costs to consumers, with a significant portion of manufacturers and service providers fully passing on these costs through price increases [5][6] Group 2 - The inflation report will provide insights into the impact of tariffs, as investors remain cautious about rising inflation [3][5] - Consumer expectations regarding future inflation have eased, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.2% from 3.6% in April, and five-year expectations decreasing to 2.6% from 2.7% [6] - The CPI report is a critical data point ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates unless there is a significant unexpected rise in inflation [8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report maintains the view that the US dollar index will fluctuate weakly. Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated narrowly in the range of 98.5 - 99.5. The factors supporting the US dollar may be the still - resilient fundamentals and potential new trade agreements. However, the weak rebound of the US dollar may reflect that the mid - term cross - border capital rebalancing and increased foreign exchange hedging main lines remain unchanged. The mid - term logic of the current market may continue, and the short - term focus is on the progress of China - US trade talks, Trump's tariff legal opinion, other countries' trade agreement progress, and the performance of the US May CPI [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 US Dollar Index Core Logic - Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated narrowly between 98.5 and 99.5. The supporting factors were the resilient fundamentals and potential new trade agreements, but the weak rebound reflected the unchanged mid - term cross - border capital rebalancing and increased foreign exchange hedging [3]. - The mid - term logic of the market may continue, and the short - term focus is on the progress of China - US trade talks, Trump's tariff legal opinion, other countries' trade agreement progress, and the US May CPI. New trade agreements are beneficial for the upward repair of the US dollar index, and the legal opinion on Trump's tariffs may have limited impact. Inflation trends in the US May CPI will also affect the US dollar index [3]. 3.2 Economic Index Trends - The US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has declined [5]. - The difference between the US and European Citigroup Economic Surprise Indexes has declined [7]. - The long - term inflation expectation in the US remains at a certain level [7]. 3.3 Interest Rate and Volatility Index Trends - The difference in short - term interest rate expectations between the US and Europe fluctuated narrowly and then basically remained at the previous level [8]. - The VIX index oscillated at a low level [8]. 3.4 Position and Ratio Trends - CFTC net positions show that the US dollar maintains a net negative position [11]. - The gold - to - copper ratio has declined [13]. 3.5 Commodity Price Trends - Copper prices have oscillated upwards [15]. - Crude oil prices have risen from the bottom [15]. 3.6 Spread and Technical Indicator Trends - The US - Germany spread first declined and then rose with the US Treasury yield, and the US dollar index oscillated narrowly [19]. - The US dollar index runs below the 9 - day moving average, and the RSI indicator is not oversold [20].