Group 1 - The upcoming CPI report is expected to show a slight increase in inflation, particularly in goods inflation, due to companies gradually passing on higher import tariffs to consumers [1][5] - The market anticipates a year-on-year CPI increase to 2.5% from the previous 2.3%, with a monthly CPI rate holding steady at 0.2% and a core CPI monthly increase of 0.3%, marking the largest rise in four months [1][5] - Businesses are increasingly transferring tariff costs to consumers, with a significant portion of manufacturers and service providers fully passing on these costs through price increases [5][6] Group 2 - The inflation report will provide insights into the impact of tariffs, as investors remain cautious about rising inflation [3][5] - Consumer expectations regarding future inflation have eased, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.2% from 3.6% in April, and five-year expectations decreasing to 2.6% from 2.7% [6] - The CPI report is a critical data point ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates unless there is a significant unexpected rise in inflation [8][10]

美元指数运行核心逻辑跟踪: 上周，美元指数在98.5-99.5区间窄幅波动, 支撑美元的因素或在于仍具有韧性的基本面（如周五公布 的5月非农有所超预期）与潜在可能达成的新贸易协议，但美元反弹力度较弱或反应中期跨境资本再平衡与加大外汇对冲主线未变。后 续来看，当前市场中期逻辑或延续，美元指数维持偏弱震荡，短期焦点一方面或聚焦于中美贸易会谈进展、特朗普关税法律意见、其 他国家贸易协议进展，预计中美达成新的贸易协议方案或6月15日G7峰会之前美国与其他国家达成新贸易协议有利于美元指数上行修 复,特朗普关税的法律意见若维持关税合法预计对美元指数冲击有限。另一方面或在美国5月CPI表现,市场的关注点或在于关税的传 导影响程度，美国经济活动已经有所放缓，通胀上行超预期或使得市场交易滞胀压力，美元指数或下行;通胀不及预期或对美元有利 。我们维持美元指数震荡偏弱的观点。 风险提示:全球衰退;特朗普政策超预期;欧美财政政策不及预期;地缘政治风险升级。 113 2.3 111 109 2.1 107 105 103 101 dd 97 2025/3/1 2024/7/1 2024/9/1 2024/11/1 2025/1/1 2 ...