Group 1: Government Bond Issuance Overview - In Q2 2025, the net issuance of government bonds reached approximately 6.66 trillion CNY, with a historical high of 1.91 trillion CNY in treasury bonds, marking an increase of 841.6 billion CNY year-on-year[1] - Local government bonds issued totaled 2.6481 trillion CNY in Q2 2025, with a net issuance of 1.7853 trillion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 869.5 billion CNY[1] - Policy financial bonds saw a net issuance of 594.8 billion CNY in Q2 2025, up 125.6 billion CNY from Q1, but down 2.062 trillion CNY compared to the same period last year due to a high base effect[2] Group 2: Q3 and Q4 Projections - For Q3 2025, total government bond net issuance is projected to be between 3.84 trillion and 4.38 trillion CNY, with treasury bonds estimated at 2.09 to 2.63 trillion CNY[3] - Local government bonds are expected to see a net issuance of approximately 1.75 trillion CNY in Q3, slightly down by 350 billion CNY from Q2 but up by 560 billion CNY compared to the 2020-2024 average[3] - In Q4 2025, the net issuance of government bonds is anticipated to be around 1 trillion CNY, with both treasury and local bonds expected to decrease in net supply compared to Q3[4] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - There is a risk that actual issuance of local government bonds may differ significantly from planned amounts, influenced by domestic policy adjustments and economic performance exceeding expectations[7] - The issuance of policy financial bonds may not see significant increases in Q3, with estimates around 600 billion CNY, as the central bank's actions could reduce the need for such bonds[3] - The overall supply pressure for government bonds is expected to be higher in July, with net issuance potentially reaching 1.47 to 1.65 trillion CNY, tapering off in subsequent months[3]