中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 政府债发行追踪―2025年第39周 研究员: 程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期: 2025年9月29日 截至9/28, 新增专项债发行进度为83.2% 本周新增专项债发行1496亿，环比增加518亿 2025 近2年均值 2025 · - 2024 -- 2023 2022 - 2021 1.5 r 4500 r 4000 3000 0.5 2000 1000 - -0.5 L 第1周 第4周 第12周 第16周 第20周 第24周 第24周 第28周 第31周 第35周 第39周 第43周 第47周 第51周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 截至9/28, 9月新增专项债累计发行3971亿元 截至9/28, 9月新增一般债累计发行411亿元 2025 2024 -- 2023 - - 2022 - 2021 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 15000 F ...

证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 09 月 22 日 中短期地方债二级利差收窄 ——地方债周报 一、一级市场情况 【净融资】本周地方债共发行 1885 亿元，净融资减少。本周地方债发行量为 1885 亿元，偿还量为 1577 亿元，净融资为 309 亿元。发行债券中，新增一般 债 207 亿元，新增专项债 978 亿元，再融资一般债 239 亿元，再融资专项债 461 亿元。 【发行期限】本周 10Y 地方债发行占比最高（25%），10Y 及以上发行占比为 77%，与上周相比有所增加。7Y、10Y、15Y、20Y 和 30Y 地方债发行占比分 别为 20%、25%、13%、16%和 22%，其中 15Y 地方债发行占比上升较多，环 比分别上升约 13 个百分点；30Y 地方债发行占比下降较多，环比下降均约 18 个百分点。 【发行利差】本周地方债加权平均发行利差为 22bp，较上周有所收窄。其中 15Y 地方债加权平均发行利差最高，达 25.0bp。本周 3Y、7Y 和 10Y 地方债加权平 均发行利差走阔，其余期限地方债加权平均发行利差均有所收窄。本周区域分 化较大，云南、青海、山东、贵州、山西 ...

截至9/21,新增专项债发行进度为79.8% 2025 近2年均值 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 1.5 r 4500 4000 1 3000 0. 5 2000 1000 -0.5 雙5周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 第4周 第38周 第41周 第49周 第1周 第1周 第8周 第12周 第15周 第19周 截至9/21,9月新增专项债累计发行2475亿 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 截至9/21,9月新增一般债累计发行354亿 中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 政府债发行追踪—2025年第38周 研究员:程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期:2025年9月22日 本周新增专项债发行978亿,环比减少340亿 · 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 15000 - 2500 r 2000 10000 1500 5000 1000 500 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of August 25, 2025, including issuance volume, net financing, maturity structure, issuance spreads, capital investment, and trading volume and turnover rate [1][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 369.2 billion yuan, with an increase in issuance volume and net financing. The net financing was 208.8 billion yuan, including 9.5 billion yuan in new general bonds, 239.3 billion yuan in new special bonds, 46.9 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 73.5 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [1]. - **Issuance Maturity**: The issuance proportion of 30 - year local government bonds was the highest at 29%, and the proportion of 10 - year and above issuances was 84%, the same as last week. The 30 - year issuance proportion increased by about 18 percentage points, while the 10 - year decreased by about 39 percentage points [1]. - **Local Government Bonds Related to Debt Resolution**: This week, 24.5 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 1,936.7 billion yuan in special bonds to replace hidden debts, with Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou having 251.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 111.3 billion yuan, and 109.2 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 23.3bp, widening compared to last week. The 15 - year weighted average issuance spread was the highest at 33.0bp. The spreads of 3 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds narrowed, while others widened. Shandong, Hebei, Hunan, and Jilin had higher spreads over 27bp, while Zhejiang had a relatively low spread [2]. - **Fund Raising Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation of new special bond funds in 2025 was to cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure (25%), social undertakings (18%), affordable housing projects (18%), transportation infrastructure (15%), and land reserves (11%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 10.3% compared to 2024, while cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure decreased by 11.6% [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total expected issuance of 2.9 trillion yuan. The planned issuance in August is 1,006.9 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 351.6 billion yuan, with a repayment of 108.1 billion yuan and a net financing of 243.5 billion yuan, a 34.7 - billion - yuan increase from last week [3]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spread of 15 - year local government bonds was relatively high, and the spreads of 15 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds widened significantly. The 15 - year secondary spread was 21.7bp, and the 30 - year secondary spread's historical quantile in the past three years was 57%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 10 - 15 - year bonds in various regions were relatively high, and those of 15 - 20 - year bonds in medium - level regions were also relatively high [6]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. The trading volume was 337.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.64%. Hebei, Guangdong, and Hunan had relatively high turnover rates, all above 1.4% [6].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds was 69.9%, and 298.6 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds had been issued in August [4][5]. - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 73.2%, and 47.1 billion yuan of new general bonds had been issued in August [9][24]. - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 70.4%, and the net financing scale of local government bonds this week was 208.8 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 222.5 billion yuan [12]. - As of August 24, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 73.2%, and the net financing scale of treasury bonds this week was 352.6 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 138 billion yuan [16][18]. - As of August 24, the net financing of treasury bonds plus the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 72.0% [20]. Detailed Data New Special-Purpose Bonds - This week, 239.3 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 220.2 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - This week, 9.5 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week-on-week decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [7].

General Information - Report title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 34, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] New Special Bond Issuance - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new special bonds reached 69.9% [4] - This week, new special bonds worth 239.3 billion yuan were issued, a week - on - week increase of 220.2 billion yuan [4] - As of August 24, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in August was 29.86 billion yuan [5] New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bonds worth 9.5 billion yuan were issued, a week - on - week decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [7] - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new general bonds reached 73.2% [9] - As of August 24, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in August was 4.71 billion yuan [24] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 208.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 222.5 billion yuan [12] - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new local bonds reached 70.4% [12] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 352.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 138 billion yuan [16] - As of August 24, the net financing progress of treasury bonds reached 73.2% [18] Combined Progress - As of August 24, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance reached 72.0% [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, local government bond issuance volume decreased, and net financing also decreased. The weighted - average issuance spread widened, and the proportion of long - term issuance increased. The proportion of funds allocated to land reserves in new special bonds increased [1][23][25]. - In the secondary market, the secondary spread of 15Y local government bonds was relatively high, and the spread of 20Y, 10Y, 1Y, and 5Y local government bonds narrowed significantly. The trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased, with relatively high turnover rates in Hebei, Qingdao, and Hunan [6][33][38]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 First - level Market Issuance Situation - **Net financing**: This week, local government bond issuance was 914 billion yuan, with a repayment of 1052 billion yuan and a net repayment of 137 billion yuan, indicating a decrease in issuance volume and net financing [1]. - **Issuance term**: The issuance proportion of 10Y local government bonds was the highest at 65%, and the proportion of 10Y and above issuance was 84%, showing an increase compared to last week. The proportion of 10Y issuance increased by about 38 percentage points, while the proportions of 5Y and 30Y issuance decreased by about 18 percentage points [1][12]. - **Local government bonds related to debt resolution**: This week, 1.2 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1907.5 billion yuan [15]. - **Issuance spread**: The weighted - average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 20.4bp, wider than last week. The weighted - average issuance spread of 15Y local government bonds was the highest at 27.4bp, and the spreads of all maturities widened [23]. - **Allocation of raised funds**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (25%), social undertakings (18%), affordable housing projects (18%), transportation infrastructure (15%), and land reserves (11%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 10.7% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 12.3% [2][25]. - **Issuance plan**: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance volume in July, the total planned issuance volume for the third quarter is expected to reach 2.85 trillion yuan, with 963.3 billion yuan planned for August. Next week, the planned issuance is 369.2 billion yuan, with a repayment of 160.4 billion yuan and a net financing of 208.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 222.5 billion yuan [3][28][30]. 3.2 Secondary - market Situation - **Secondary spread**: The secondary spread of 15Y local government bonds was relatively high at 16.5bp. The spreads of 20Y, 10Y, 1Y, and 5Y local government bonds narrowed significantly. From a historical percentile perspective in the past three years, the historical percentiles of 1Y and 3Y local government bond secondary spreads were relatively high, both reaching 45% [6][33]. - **Trading situation**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. The turnover rates of local government bonds in Hebei, Qingdao, and Hunan were relatively high. The trading volume reached 349.1 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.66%. Shandong, Sichuan, Hebei, and Hunan had large trading volumes, and the turnover rates in Hebei, Qingdao, and Hunan were all above 1.4% [6][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the characteristics of local government bonds in the first half of 2025, including primary issuance, secondary trading, and institutional behavior, aiming to provide a comprehensive review of the local government bond market in this period [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1.1. Local Government Bond Primary Issuance Characteristics - **Feature 1: Record - high issuance and net financing scale in the same period** - In H1 2025, the local government bond issuance scale reached 5490.2 billion yuan, the highest in the same period in the past decade. The net financing scale was 4413.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2540.8 billion yuan. The issuance of 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts was front - loaded, mainly concentrated in January - April, with the overall issuance progress close to 90% [10][13][15]. - **Feature 2: Issuance structure: New special bonds have the highest proportion, but the proportion is declining** - In H1 2025, new special bonds and refinancing special bonds accounted for 40% and 39% respectively, with issuance scales of 2160.7 billion yuan and 2150.2 billion yuan. The proportion of new special bonds slightly decreased, while that of refinancing special bonds increased. New general bonds accounted for the lowest at 8%, with an issuance scale of 452 billion yuan [19]. - **Feature 3: Special bond issuance rhythm: Overall progress is relatively stable** - In H1 2025, the issuance progress of new special bonds was relatively stable, with a relatively balanced monthly issuance scale compared to 2024. As of June 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 21606.53 billion yuan, compared with 23008.50 billion yuan and 14934.68 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 and 2024 respectively [21]. - **Feature 4: The underlying logic of debt - resolution quota allocation is still the resolution of hidden debts** - Debt resolution remained the top priority in H1 2025. The issuance scale of local government bonds for debt resolution remained large, including 464.8 billion yuan of special new special bonds for debt resolution and 1794.4 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts. The proportion of key areas in local government bonds for debt resolution in H1 2025 was 31%, the same as in 2024 but significantly lower than the 66% in 2023 [22][27]. - **Feature 5: Land reserve special bonds restarted, but there is a gap between actual issuance and announced scale** - In H1 2025, 9 provinces (including municipalities directly under the Central Government) issued land reserve special bonds, with a total scale of 192.5 billion yuan. As of mid - July 2025, the announced land acquisition scale was 426.2 billion yuan [30]. - **Feature 6: The proportion of special bond issuance scale in "self - review and self - issuance" provinces has increased** - The proportion of new special bond issuance scale in "self - review and self - issuance" provinces increased significantly. From 2020 - 2023, the proportion of special bond issuance scale in the pilot areas was about 53%, and in H1 2025, it rose to 69%, possibly related to the faster approval of special bonds in these provinces [34]. - **Feature 7: Issuance term has been extended** - In H1 2025, the average issuance term of local government bonds was 14.69 years, an extension of 1.46 years compared to 2024. The proportion of local government bonds with a term of over 15 years in terms of both scale and quantity increased [38][43]. - **Feature 8: Issuance cost has decreased, while issuance spread has widened** - In H1 2025, the issuance spread of local government bonds rebounded to 12.22BP, an increase of 3.73BP compared to 2024, and the average issuance interest rate decreased to 1.89%, a decrease of 0.39pct compared to 2024. The "flying" phenomenon of local government bonds was significant in the first half of the year, mainly in 30 - year bonds [46][48]. - **Feature 9: Regional issuance spreads continue to diverge in a low - interest - rate environment** - In H1 2025, regional issuance spreads continued to diverge significantly, following the rule that "the stronger the fiscal strength, the lower the spread". Economically strong regions maintained low spreads, while some less - developed regions had high spreads [50]. - **Feature 10: The spread of special refinancing bonds is higher than that of ordinary refinancing bonds** - The spread of special refinancing bonds is higher than that of ordinary refinancing bonds, mainly because the issuance term of special refinancing bonds is generally longer. Nationally, the spreads of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds are 16.53BP and 13.96BP respectively, higher than those of ordinary refinancing bonds (9.56BP) and ordinary new special bonds (12.55BP) [52]. 1.2. Local Government Bond Secondary Trading Characteristics - **Feature 11: Trading volume has increased, trading price has risen, and turnover rate has decreased** - In H1 2025, the trading volume of local government bonds was 10.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 1690.3 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024. The turnover rate was 3.65%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04 percentage points, mainly due to the significant decline in the turnover rate of general bonds. The trading volume and turnover rate of special bonds are higher than those of general bonds. Regionally, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong have higher turnover rates [55][61]. 1.3. Local Government Bond Institutional Behavior Characteristics - **Feature 13: There are differences in institutional buying and selling behaviors and term preferences** - From the buying side, insurance, funds, and wealth management prefer to sell short - term bonds and buy long - term bonds, while rural commercial banks prefer to buy bonds with a term of 7 - 20 years. From the selling side, large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and securities firms were net sellers in H1 2025. Large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks prefer to buy short - term and sell long - term bonds, while securities firms reduced their holdings across all terms [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of July 06, 2025. It points out that the net financing of local government bonds decreased in the primary market, with long - term issuance proportion declining, the issuance spread narrowing, and the proportion of land reserve investment increasing. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the trading volume and turnover rate have slightly increased [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 721 billion yuan, with a repayment of 505 billion yuan and a net financing of 216 billion yuan. The issuance volume and net financing decreased [1]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance proportion of 10Y local government bonds was the highest at 21%, and the proportion of 10Y and above decreased to 69% compared with last week. The issuance proportion of 20Y local government bonds decreased significantly by about 8 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, totaling 18,246 billion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 2,511 billion yuan, 1,148 billion yuan, 1,113 billion yuan, and 1,059 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 8.6bp, narrowing compared with last week. The weighted average issuance spread of 30Y local government bonds was the highest at 12.9bp. Except for the 3Y and 5Y local government bonds, the issuance spreads of other terms narrowed [1]. - **Fund - Raising Direction**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - added special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 11.3% compared with 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.2% [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total of 2.62 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 12,796 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 16,585 billion yuan and 9,623 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 2,250 billion yuan, with a repayment of 1,216 billion yuan and a net financing of 1,034 billion yuan, an increase of 818 billion yuan compared with this week [3]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 10Y narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are relatively high, reaching 16.9bp and 15.8bp respectively. From the historical quantile of the past 3 years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 30Y local government bonds is relatively high at 68%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 20Y and 3 - 5Y in various regions are relatively high [4][5]. - **Trading Situation**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased slightly compared with last week. The turnover rates of local government bonds in Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Fujian are relatively high. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 5,475 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.06%. Sichuan had the highest turnover rate at 7.0%, and the turnover rates in Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan and other places were at relatively high levels, all above 1.0% [5].

Group 1: Government Bond Issuance Overview - In Q2 2025, the net issuance of government bonds reached approximately 6.66 trillion CNY, with a historical high of 1.91 trillion CNY in treasury bonds, marking an increase of 841.6 billion CNY year-on-year[1] - Local government bonds issued totaled 2.6481 trillion CNY in Q2 2025, with a net issuance of 1.7853 trillion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 869.5 billion CNY[1] - Policy financial bonds saw a net issuance of 594.8 billion CNY in Q2 2025, up 125.6 billion CNY from Q1, but down 2.062 trillion CNY compared to the same period last year due to a high base effect[2] Group 2: Q3 and Q4 Projections - For Q3 2025, total government bond net issuance is projected to be between 3.84 trillion and 4.38 trillion CNY, with treasury bonds estimated at 2.09 to 2.63 trillion CNY[3] - Local government bonds are expected to see a net issuance of approximately 1.75 trillion CNY in Q3, slightly down by 350 billion CNY from Q2 but up by 560 billion CNY compared to the 2020-2024 average[3] - In Q4 2025, the net issuance of government bonds is anticipated to be around 1 trillion CNY, with both treasury and local bonds expected to decrease in net supply compared to Q3[4] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - There is a risk that actual issuance of local government bonds may differ significantly from planned amounts, influenced by domestic policy adjustments and economic performance exceeding expectations[7] - The issuance of policy financial bonds may not see significant increases in Q3, with estimates around 600 billion CNY, as the central bank's actions could reduce the need for such bonds[3] - The overall supply pressure for government bonds is expected to be higher in July, with net issuance potentially reaching 1.47 to 1.65 trillion CNY, tapering off in subsequent months[3]