丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 新增债披露发行 2233 亿 ——政府债周报（8/24） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 8 月 25 日-8 月 31 日地方债披露发行 3515.97 亿元。其中新增债 2232.89 亿元（新增一般债 353.10 亿元，新增专项债 1879.79 亿元），再融资债 1283.08 亿元（再融资一般债 656.93 亿 元，再融资专项债 626.15 亿元）。 8 月 18 日-8 月 24 日地方债共发行 3691.50 亿元。其中新增债 2488.07 亿元（新增一般债 95.39 亿元，新增专项债 2392.68 亿元），再融资债 1203.43 亿元（再融资一般债 468.73 亿元，再 融资专项债 734.70 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 发行复盘 8 月 18 日-8 月 24 日地方债共发行 3691.50 亿元。其中新增债 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From August 11th to August 17th, local government bonds issued a total of 9.1432 billion yuan, including 4.9356 billion yuan in new bonds (3.0321 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1.9034 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.2076 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (2.8632 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1.3445 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds). From August 18th to August 24th, local government bonds are expected to issue 36.915 billion yuan, including 24.8807 billion yuan in new bonds (953.9 million yuan in new general bonds and 23.9268 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 12.0343 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (4.6873 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 7.347 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][4][5] - As of August 17th, the fourth round of special refinancing bonds has a total disclosed amount of 435.5743 billion yuan, with 196.7218 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and an additional 9.164 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three provinces or municipalities with separate planning in terms of the fourth - round disclosure scale are Jiangsu (56.47 billion yuan), Hunan (27.8732 billion yuan), and Shandong (24.1398 billion yuan). As of August 17th, the special new special bonds in 2025 have a total disclosed amount of 44.0733 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 163.1246 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu (21.0235 billion yuan), Hubei (12.8769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (11.886 billion yuan). The top three provinces or municipalities with separate planning in terms of the 2025 disclosure scale are Jiangsu (9.51 billion yuan), Hebei (3.9143 billion yuan), and Hubei (3.6913 billion yuan) [6] Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - From August 11th to August 17th, the net supply of local government bonds was - 1.37 billion yuan; from August 18th to August 24th, the forecast net supply of local government bonds is 20.88 billion yuan [10][15] - A comparison of the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in July and August is presented, showing differences in the issuance of new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [13][17] - The monthly issuance plan, actual issuance, and net financing situation of local government bonds are also shown [21] Local Bond Net Supply - As of August 17th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 70.47%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.10% [25] - The cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local government bond maturities as of August 17th is presented [25] Special Bond Issuance Details - As of August 17th, the statistics of special refinancing bonds show the issuance amounts in different rounds for various provinces and municipalities [29] - As of August 17th, the statistics of special new special bonds show the issuance amounts from 2023 to 2025 for various provinces and municipalities [31] Local Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds are presented, including the spreads for different maturities and the changes over time [36] - The second - level spreads of local government bonds in different regions are presented, showing the spread changes in different regions from May to August 2025 [39] New Special Bond Investment Directions - The investment directions of new special bonds are presented, with the latest month's statistics only considering the issued new bonds [42]

Group 1: Government Bond Issuance Overview - In Q2 2025, the net issuance of government bonds reached approximately 6.66 trillion CNY, with a historical high of 1.91 trillion CNY in treasury bonds, marking an increase of 841.6 billion CNY year-on-year[1] - Local government bonds issued totaled 2.6481 trillion CNY in Q2 2025, with a net issuance of 1.7853 trillion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 869.5 billion CNY[1] - Policy financial bonds saw a net issuance of 594.8 billion CNY in Q2 2025, up 125.6 billion CNY from Q1, but down 2.062 trillion CNY compared to the same period last year due to a high base effect[2] Group 2: Q3 and Q4 Projections - For Q3 2025, total government bond net issuance is projected to be between 3.84 trillion and 4.38 trillion CNY, with treasury bonds estimated at 2.09 to 2.63 trillion CNY[3] - Local government bonds are expected to see a net issuance of approximately 1.75 trillion CNY in Q3, slightly down by 350 billion CNY from Q2 but up by 560 billion CNY compared to the 2020-2024 average[3] - In Q4 2025, the net issuance of government bonds is anticipated to be around 1 trillion CNY, with both treasury and local bonds expected to decrease in net supply compared to Q3[4] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - There is a risk that actual issuance of local government bonds may differ significantly from planned amounts, influenced by domestic policy adjustments and economic performance exceeding expectations[7] - The issuance of policy financial bonds may not see significant increases in Q3, with estimates around 600 billion CNY, as the central bank's actions could reduce the need for such bonds[3] - The overall supply pressure for government bonds is expected to be higher in July, with net issuance potentially reaching 1.47 to 1.65 trillion CNY, tapering off in subsequent months[3]

Overall Issuance Situation - In May 2025, the issuance volume of local government bonds reached 779.4 billion yuan, an increase of 86.2 billion yuan month-on-month but a decrease of 124.2 billion yuan year-on-year [5][6] - The net financing amount for May was 554.6 billion yuan, up by 26.5 billion yuan from the previous month but down by 80.3 billion yuan compared to the same month last year [5][6] - The issuance of new special bonds was significant, totaling 443.2 billion yuan, which is a month-on-month increase of 213 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 4.8 billion yuan [5][6] Issuance Rates - The weighted average issuance rate for local government bonds in May decreased to 1.87%, down by 5.08 basis points from the previous month [15][17] - The issuance rates for various maturities showed a downward trend, with the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year rates decreasing by 0.53, 13.00, and 4.02 basis points respectively [15][17] Issuance Spread - The issuance spread of local government bonds narrowed compared to national treasury yields, with most maturities experiencing a decrease in spread [17][19] - The highest spreads were observed in Guangxi and Inner Mongolia, at 21.24 and 19.94 basis points respectively [17][19] Issuance Maturity - The average issuance maturity for local government bonds in May was 14.16 years, which is a reduction of 1.39 years from the previous month [20][23] - The average maturities for new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds were shortened by 1.27 years, 1.49 years, and 3.77 years respectively [20][23] Fund Utilization - The primary focus for the utilization of newly issued special bonds remains in infrastructure, with 52.39% of the funds directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and public services [23][26] - In May, the funds allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure decreased by 4.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [23][26] Regional Issuance - A total of 27 provinces and municipalities issued local government bonds in May, with Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Zhejiang leading in issuance scale [2][28] - Cumulatively, from January to May, Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, and Guangdong had the highest issuance volumes, collectively accounting for 32.0% of the total issuance [2][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the issuance progress and details of local government bonds, including new - issued bonds, refinancing bonds, and special bonds. It provides data on planned and actual issuances, net supplies, and regional issuance statistics [2][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - 5/12 - 5/18 local bond net supply was 1711 billion yuan; 5/19 - 5/25 local bond forecast net supply is 1426 billion yuan [14][15] - Comparison of planned and actual issuances in April and May shows differences in new - issued bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [16][18] 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - As of May 18, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 40.24%, and that of new special bonds was 30.40% [26] - As of May 18, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities for the year is presented in a chart [28] 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - As of May 18, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 40126.17 billion yuan, with 16240.92 billion yuan in 2025 and 251.48 billion yuan to be newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Shandong [8] - As of May 18, the special new special bonds in 2025 totaled 1568.14 billion yuan, and 13473.27 billion yuan since 2023. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu, Hubei, and Xinjiang [8] 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - Charts show the primary - secondary spread of local bonds and the secondary spread by region, with data from different time points [37][40] 3.5 New Special Bond Investment Directions The report mentions the monthly statistics of project investment directions, with the latest month's statistics considering only issued new bonds [42]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the issuance progress and details of local government bonds, including new - issued bonds, refinancing bonds, and special bonds. It presents data on actual and planned bond issuances, net supply, and investment - related information such as spreads [2][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From May 5th - 11th, local bonds issued 1054.59 billion yuan, with 1001.89 billion yuan in new - issued bonds (0 billion in new general bonds and 1001.89 billion in new special bonds) and 52.70 billion yuan in refinancing bonds. From May 12th - 16th, local bonds are expected to issue 1972.50 billion yuan, including 970.21 billion yuan in new - issued bonds (195.66 billion in new general bonds and 774.55 billion in new special bonds) and 1002.29 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [2][6][7]. - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: Figures show the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in April and May, including new - issued bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [16][18][21]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - **New - issued Bond Issuance Progress**: As of May 11th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 37.79%, and that of new special bonds is 28.68% [26]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of May 11th is presented [26]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of May 11th, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds have a total disclosed amount of 39874.69 billion yuan, with 15989.44 billion yuan disclosed in 2025. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Hunan [8]. - **Special New - issued Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of May 11th, 2025 special new - issued special bonds have a total disclosed amount of 1432.58 billion yuan, and since 2023, 13337.71 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in different time - frames are also provided [8]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented, including changes over time and by different maturities [38]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The secondary spreads of different regions are shown, with data from March 28th, 2025 to May 9th, 2025 [40]. 3.5 New - issued Special Bond Investment Direction - **Monthly Statistics of Project Investment Direction**: The investment direction of new - issued special bonds is presented, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new - issued bonds [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, under the requirement of a more proactive fiscal policy, the issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter reached a record high, but the issuance progress of new bonds was relatively slow. The issuance of refinancing bonds increased significantly, and nearly half of the provinces completed the issuance of this year's replacement quota. The support of special bonds for real - estate related projects increased significantly, and the proportion of special bonds used as capital decreased slightly. - It is predicted that about 7 trillion yuan of local government bonds will be issued this year, and the issuance in the second quarter is expected to accelerate, with a scale of over 3 trillion yuan. The special bonds can theoretically leverage about 4.3 trillion yuan of infrastructure investment, but the actual leverage effect needs to be improved. - In the future, attention should be paid to the issuance and use progress of government bonds, the implementation of special bonds for land reserves and the acquisition of existing commercial housing, the investment direction of special bond funds, the overall efficiency of fiscal funds, and the rigid repayment pressure of fiscal budget funds under the increasing interest - payment scale [4][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Quarter Local Bond Market Operation Features - **High - record issuance scale, high proportion of refinancing bonds, and slow progress of new bonds**: In the first quarter, local government bonds issued 2.84 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 80.58%. Refinancing bonds issued 1.60 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 1.2 times, accounting for 56.39% of the local bond issuance scale. New bonds issued 1.24 trillion yuan, completing 21.82% of the quota, still lower than the average level in the past three years [4][7]. - **Nearly half of the provinces completed the issuance of this year's replacement quota, and the issuance progress of new special bonds in "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas was fast**: By the end of the first quarter, 14 provinces completed the issuance of this year's replacement quota, and only 3 provinces had not issued special refinancing bonds. The issuance progress of new special bonds in 10 pilot provinces was significantly faster than that in non - pilot provinces [11][12]. - **Extended issuance term, over 80% of 10 - year and above bonds, and a monthly rising trend in issuance interest rates**: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds increased by 4.49 years year - on - year to 17.19 years. The issuance interest rate decreased year - on - year but showed a monthly rising trend. The overall spread of local government bonds continued to be within 15bp, narrowing year - on - year [18][20]. - **Significantly increased support for the real - estate sector by special bonds, and a slight decrease in the proportion of special bonds used as capital**: The investment of special bonds was still concentrated in municipal and industrial parks, transportation, and other fields. The support for real - estate related projects increased significantly, and the proportion of special bonds used as capital decreased slightly [23]. 3.2 Follow - up Issuance Outlook - **Issuance forecast**: About 7 trillion yuan of local government bonds are to be issued this year. In the second quarter, the issuance of new special bonds is expected to accelerate, with a scale of 1.6 trillion yuan. Over 3 trillion yuan of refinancing bonds are to be issued, and about 0.66 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds for implicit debt replacement are still to be issued. It is recommended to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in a timely manner [28][30]. - **Leverage effect forecast**: About 2.6 trillion yuan of new special bonds are expected to be invested in infrastructure projects this year, which can theoretically leverage about 4.3 trillion yuan of infrastructure investment. However, the actual leverage effect is limited by multiple factors [34]. 3.3 Issues to be Concerned about and Corresponding Suggestions - **Pay attention to the issuance and use progress of local government bonds**: Accelerate the issuance and use of new special bonds, advance debt replacement, and strengthen the coordination of monetary policy [37]. - **Pay attention to the implementation of special bonds for land reserves and the acquisition of existing commercial housing**: Introduce relevant policy details as soon as possible to prevent capital idling and stabilize the real - estate market [39]. - **Pay attention to the investment direction of special bond funds**: Expand the scope of use, focus on people's livelihood, consumption, and long - term development, and strengthen project reserves and financing docking in new fields [40]. - **Pay attention to the overall efficiency of fiscal funds**: Improve the supervision and early - warning system, enhance the efficiency of debt - resolution funds, and give full play to the role of other fiscal funds [42]. - **Pay attention to the rigid repayment pressure of fiscal budget funds under the increasing interest - payment scale**: Improve the debt - repayment and interest - payment guarantee mechanism [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the issuance progress of local government bonds, including new - added bonds and refinancing bonds, as well as the issuance progress of special bonds. It provides data on the actual and forecasted issuance of local government bonds, and analyzes the net supply, issuance progress, and investment and trading conditions of local government bonds [2][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Debt Actual Issuance and Forecasted Issuance - From May 5th to May 9th, the planned issuance of local government bonds was 740.53 million yuan, including 687.83 million yuan of new - added bonds (0 million yuan of new - added general bonds and 687.83 million yuan of new - added special bonds) and 52.70 million yuan of refinancing bonds (49.03 million yuan of refinancing general bonds and 3.67 million yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. - From April 28th to May 4th, the actual issuance of local government bonds was 930.92 million yuan, including 599.51 million yuan of new - added bonds (67.46 million yuan of new - added general bonds and 532.05 million yuan of new - added special bonds) and 331.41 million yuan of refinancing bonds (176.76 million yuan of refinancing general bonds and 154.65 million yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][7]. 3.2 Special Debt Issuance Progress - As of May 4th, the total disclosed issuance of the fourth round of special refinancing bonds was 398.7469 billion yuan, with 159.8944 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and 0 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed issuance scale were Jiangsu (57.033 billion yuan), Sichuan (22.358 billion yuan), and Hunan (20.87 billion yuan) [8]. - As of May 4th, the total disclosed issuance of special new - added special bonds in 2025 was 14.3258 billion yuan, and since 2023, it was 133.3771 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed issuance scale were Jiangsu (12.5135 billion yuan), Hubei (10.6856 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (9.102 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions were Henan (1.56 billion yuan), Shaanxi (1.5 billion yuan), and Hubei (1.5 billion yuan) [8]. 3.3 Local Debt Net Supply - As of May 4th, the issuance progress of new - added general bonds was 37.79%, and the issuance progress of new - added special bonds was 26.45% [26][27]. 3.4 Local Debt Investment and Trading - The report provides data on the primary - secondary spread of local government bonds and the secondary spread by region, showing the changes in spreads from April 25th to April 30th, 2025 [37][41]. 3.5 New - Added Special Bond Investment Direction The report provides a monthly statistics on the investment direction of new - added special bonds, but specific investment direction data is not given in the provided text [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the issuance progress and details of local government bonds, including new - issued bonds, refinancing bonds, and special bonds. It provides data on actual and forecasted bond issuances, net supply, and investment - related spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecasted Issuance - 4/21 - 4/27 local bond net supply was 1625 billion yuan; 4/28 - 5/4 local bond forecasted net supply is 927 billion yuan [13][17] - In March, there were differences between the planned and actual issuance of local bonds; in April, there were also differences between the disclosed plan and actual issuance [15][21] 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - As of April 25, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 36.95%, and that of new special bonds was 25.27% [27] - As of April 25, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities for the year is presented in the report [27] 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - As of April 25, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 39874.69 billion yuan, with 15989.44 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and 56.30 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale were Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Hunan [7] - As of April 25, the special new special bonds in 2025 totaled 1432.58 billion yuan, and 13337.71 billion yuan since 2023. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale were Jiangsu, Hubei, and Xinjiang [7] 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - The report shows the first - and second - level spreads of local bonds and the second - level spreads by region [37][40] 3.5 New Special Bond Investment Directions The report provides a monthly statistics of project investment directions for new special bonds, with the latest month only considering issued new bonds [42]