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TL阶段性破位
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 10:53
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, all Treasury bond futures closed lower. The closing prices of the 30 - year (TL), 10 - year (T), 5 - year (TF), and 2 - year (TS) Treasury bond futures in the main contracts decreased by 1.54%, 0.32%, 0.17%, and 0.04% respectively compared to last week. The overall Treasury bond futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with prices of all - term contracts declining. Due to the support of loose funding at the short - end, TF and TS performed better than TL and T. After the increase in equity risk appetite, Treasury bond futures were more likely to fall than rise. Although the weak economic data released on Friday morning supported a rebound in the morning session, the market then returned to the bearish direction [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volume - **Price**: The closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased by 1.54%, 0.32%, 0.17%, and 0.04% respectively compared to last week [4]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contracts continued to decline. The open interest of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased by 26.1%, 28%, 23.3%, and 19.6% respectively compared to last week. The total open interest of all contracts also decreased, with T, TL, TF, and TS decreasing by 0.7%, 1.3%, 5.6%, and 4.6% respectively compared to last week. The total open interest of all Treasury bond futures decreased by 2.83% compared to last week [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of Treasury bond futures rebounded significantly compared to last week. The trading volumes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts increased by 28%, 21.1%, 8.3%, and 18.9% respectively compared to last week; the trading volumes of all contracts increased by 44.6%, 31.8%, 16.6%, and 20.9% respectively compared to last week [4]. Spread and Ratio - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Except for the unchanged inter - delivery spread of the T variety, the spreads of other varieties widened. From the 09 - 12 month spread, the inter - delivery spread of TL continued to widen, rising by 0.1 yuan; the spreads of TS and TF reversed, rising from a decline to 0.014 yuan and 0.055 yuan respectively; the spread of T remained unchanged compared to last week [4]. - **Long - Short Ratio**: The long - short ratios of the top 20 seats in the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS were 0.99, 1.03, 0.93, and 0.93 respectively, changing by - 0.018, + 0.027, - 0.001, and + 0.019 respectively compared to last week. Among them, the long - short ratios of T and TS improved [4]. IRR and Basis - **IRR**: From the perspective of IRR, the IRR corresponding to the CTD of the T and TF main contracts rebounded marginally this week. The IRR corresponding to the CTD of the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts were - 1.2584%, 2.1507%, 1.5529%, and 1.1675% respectively, changing by - 2.6924%, + 0.7559%, + 0.0154%, and - 0.2929% respectively compared to last week. Among them, TL moved towards the lower extreme, T returned to the 3/4 quantile level of history, and TF and TS were at relatively low levels in history [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of TL and TS widened, while the basis of T and TF converged. The discount of the TL main contract widened by 0.2855 yuan compared to the closing price last week, and the widening of the discount may reflect that the market was more cautious about the future market trend [4]. Technical Analysis - Technically, the bearish sentiment dominated the market this week, and the price of the TL main contract broke through the support level. During the week, TL and T opened and closed lower, with significant declines compared to the closing price last Friday. Based on the trading volume distribution, the trading price of TL was mainly distributed (more than 80%) between about 117.52 - 118.43, while the trading price of T was distributed between about 108.31 - 108.48. According to the closing data on Friday, the prices of the T and TL main contracts both broke below the lower limit of the trading volume distribution center of gravity [4].