国债期货日报 2025/11/24 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策态度 | | 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-21 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-21 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.416 | 102.448 | -0.032 | TS合约持仓(手） | 71468 | 73816 | -2348 | | TF2512 | 105.885 | 105.855 | 0.03 | TF合约持仓(手） | 160107 | 153244 | 6863 | | T2512 | 108.47 | 108.44 | 0.03 | T合约持仓(手） | 284471 | 279585 | 4886 | | TL2512 | 115.72 | 115.59 | 0.13 | TL合约持仓(手） | 175392 | 176275 | -883 | | TS基差（CTD) | 0.0034 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Condition and Expectations - The bond market showed an overall oscillatory strengthening trend, with long - term bonds performing slightly better than short - term bonds. The 30 - year main contract of treasury bond futures rose 0.22%. The liquidity in the inter - bank market tightened further, and the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions rose more than 15bp to 1.48%. Vanke bonds generally declined, with "22 Vanke 06" falling more than 8%. The bond market sentiment was fair, and it is expected to remain oscillatory until the end of the year, with few trend opportunities [2]. - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF roll - overs for the 8th consecutive month. The October PMI data was below expectations and still below the boom - bust line. In September, the CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase of core CPI expanded for the 5th consecutive month. The new social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [4]. Group 2: Capital and Policy - On November 10, the People's Bank of China conducted 119.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 78.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment on the day was 41.6 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Basis and Inventory Analysis - The main basis of TS was - 0.0211, indicating that the cash bond was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The main basis of TF was - 0.0235, also bearish. The main basis of T was 0.0202, and the main basis of TL was 0.1186, both indicating that the cash bond was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [2]. - The balances of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T were 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which was neutral [3]. Group 4: Market Technical Analysis - The main contracts of TS, TF, and T were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [3]. - The main contract of TS had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The main contract of TF also had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The main contract of T had a net long position with a decrease in long positions [4]. Group 5: Main Contract Quotes | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.485 | 0.01% | 58,830 | 231,393 | - 4,216 | 250018.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 105.940 | 0.02% | 49,109 | 138,398 | - 4,021 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.468 | 0.00% | 24,929 | 67,365 | - 700 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 116.28 | 0.22% | 96,097 | 129,150 | 1,495 | 210005.IB | [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the inter - bank bond market is warm, with spot bond yields declining by about 1bp. The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the 30 - year main contract increased by 0.19%. The tax payment period has basically ended, and the inter - bank money market has become more relaxed, with the overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions dropping by more than 9bp to a low of 1.31%. The fourth - quarter bond market faces a generally favorable fundamental and policy environment but remains in a volatile pattern [3]. - The central bank has continued to increase the volume of MLF renewals for the 8th consecutive month. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but was still below the boom - bust line. The CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase in core CPI expanded for the 5th consecutive month. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level, and the M2 growth rate expanded due to the "migration of RMB deposits". The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - The inter - bank bond market sentiment is warm, spot bond yields decline, and the main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly rise. The tax payment period ends, and the money market eases. The market is highly concerned about the China - US summit [3]. 3.2 Fund Flow - On October 30, the People's Bank of China conducted 3426 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 2125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 1301 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Basis - The basis of TS main contract is - 0.0721, indicating that the spot bond is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of TF main contract is - 0.0427, also bearish. The basis of T main contract is 0.1084, indicating that the spot bond is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The basis of TL main contract is 0.0476, also bullish [3]. 3.4 Inventory - The balance of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T are 1359.4 billion yuan, 1493.5 billion yuan, and 2359.9 billion yuan respectively, which is neutral [4]. 3.5 Market Trends - The TS main contract is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish. The TF main contract is also above the 20 - day moving average with an upward 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The T main contract is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. 3.6 Main Positions - The TS main contract has a net long position, and the long position increases. The TF main contract has a net long position, and the long position increases. The T main contract has a net long position, but the long position decreases [5]. 3.7 Market Quotes | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.630 | 0.05% | 68,993 | 245,110 | - 1,169 | 220017.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 106.065 | 0.00% | 54,366 | 149,269 | 160 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.554 | - 0.01% | 33,991 | 73,541 | 2,319 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 116.15 | 0.19% | 128,226 | 144,078 | - 1,963 | 220008.IB | [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The sentiment in the inter - bank bond market in China is relatively high. Short - and medium - term bond yields have declined significantly due to rumors of large banks buying new bonds issued this year within three years, while long - term bonds have performed weakly. The central bank has been supportive, and the inter - bank market liquidity has loosened. There is still room for market speculation on loose monetary policy, providing short - term support for the bond market [2]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1. Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The inter - bank bond market sentiment is high, short - and medium - term bonds are in high demand with falling yields, long - term bonds are weak, most Treasury bond futures contracts have risen, and the central bank has increased market liquidity. The market is still speculating on loose monetary policy, which supports the short - term bond market [2]. - **Funding**: On October 29, the central bank conducted 557.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 138.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 419.5 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, and T main contracts is negative, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of the TL main contract is positive, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The balance of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts is 1.3594 trillion yuan, 1.4935 trillion yuan, and 2.3599 trillion yuan respectively, which is neutral [3]. - **Market Trend**: The TS, TF, and T main contracts are above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Positions**: The net long positions of the TS and TF main contracts have increased, while the net long positions of the T main contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectations**: The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for eight consecutive months. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but remained below the boom - bust line, the CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI has been rising year - on - year [5]. - **Contract Quotes**: The T2512.CFE contract price is 108.570, up 0.13%, with a trading volume of 91,358 and an open interest of 246,279, an increase of 7,086. The TF2512.CFE contract price is 106.070, up 0.16%, with a trading volume of 99,318 and an open interest of 149,109, an increase of 10,861. The TS2512.CFE contract price is 102.576, up 0.10%, with a trading volume of 56,118 and an open interest of 71,222, an increase of 2,282. The TL2512.CFE contract price is 115.83, down 0.27%, with a trading volume of 125,436 and an open interest of 146,041, a decrease of 1,892 [8]. 3.2. Spot Bond Analysis The report presents the DR interest rate and the maturity yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds for 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year terms, as well as the term spreads between 10Y - 2Y and 5Y - 2Y, but does not provide specific analysis conclusions [9][13]. 3.3. Basis Analysis The report shows the basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [16][17][19].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report analyzes the factors affecting the bond market, with bank - to - bank funds in a loose environment supporting the bond market, and the 10 - year main contract rising 0.12% weekly, showing stable market sentiment and attracting buyers. However, there are also negative factors such as better - than - expected import and export data (4.8% export growth) and high risk preference. It is recommended to closely monitor the capital situation and economic fundamentals and maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Data Bond Market Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Bank - to - bank funds in a loose environment support the bond market, and the 10 - year main contract rising 0.12% weekly attracts buyers [3] - Negative factors: Import and export data are better than expected (4.8% export growth), which may push up interest rate expectations, and high risk preference increases the pressure of capital diversion [3] Yield and Interest Rate - The report presents the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08, as well as the trends of deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates for 1 - day and 7 - day and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/12 to 2025/06 [4] Term Spread - It shows the trends of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [4] Futures Position and Trading Volume - The trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures positions from 2015/12 to 2023/12 and trading volumes from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are presented [8][9] Basis and Spread - The report shows the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures basis for the current quarter, as well as the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures spreads between the current and next quarters from 2024/04 to 2025/08 (for 30 - year from 2023/06 to 2025/06) [10][17][20] - It also presents the trends of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL cross - variety spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 (for T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06) [21][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. It believes that the market decline today may be related to a widely - circulated fund fee interpretation memo. The shift from institutional redemptions of fund products to ETFs and special accounts may be an emerging trend, which will bring some pressure to the market in the short - term. With the current stable capital situation and the central bank's reluctance to over - invest, the market lacks positive drivers and is vulnerable to potential negative factors. Trading should adopt a volatile approach, and when buying long positions, the intervals should be widened [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1. Disk Review - On Tuesday, bond futures prices dropped rapidly after the opening, failed to rebound during the trading day, and all varieties closed lower. The open market only conducted 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 1.09 billion yuan. The capital situation tended to be stable, and the DR001 rate dropped to 1.41% [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - Federal Reserve Governor Milan estimated the neutral interest rate to be around 2.5% and proposed an additional 125 - basis - point interest rate cut within the year. However, three Fed officials poured cold water on the idea of rate cuts, stating that there is limited room for further action and no reason to cut rates again this year [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment - The main reason for today's market decline may be related to a fund fee interpretation memo. The shift from institutional redemptions of fund products to ETFs and special accounts is likely a long - term trend, which will bring some pressure to the market during the transition. Currently, the capital situation is stable, and the central bank's open - market fund withdrawal indicates its reluctance to over - invest. The market lacks positive drivers and is easily affected by potential negative factors. Trading should be based on a volatile strategy, and when buying long positions, the intervals should be widened [3]. 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 23 Price | 2025 - 09 - 22 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 23 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 22 Position (Lots) | Position Change (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 23 Trading Volume (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 22 Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.352 | 102.396 | - 0.044 | 75408 | 76728 | - 1320 | 38495 | 28858 | 9637 | | TF2512 | 105.645 | 105.76 | - 0.115 | 144278 | 151551 | - 7273 | 81508 | 50317 | 31191 | | T2512 | 107.755 | 107.945 | - 0.19 | 246257 | 251433 | - 5176 | 110179 | 79097 | 31082 | | TL2512 | 114.54 | 115.09 | - 0.55 | 166622 | 169375 | - 2753 | 154093 | 113691 | 40402 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0467 | - 0.0141 | - 0.0326 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0531 | 0.0369 | - 0.09 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0321 | 0.1268 | - 0.0947 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.623 | 0.6336 | - 0.0106 | - | - | - | - | - | - | [4] |

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. Although the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the domestic market may not have an urgent need to follow suit. The central bank may need to use various tools to inject liquidity. If the central bank does not make a statement in the short term, the market's upside potential will be limited. The trading strategy is not to chase the rise, and long positions can be entered at low levels [1][2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance - On Thursday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated within a range, closing down across the board. Except for the 1 - year bond, the yields of spot bonds rose. The open - market reverse repurchase was 487 billion yuan, with a net injection of 195 billion yuan. The funding situation remained tight, and DR001 rose to 1.51% [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, emphasizing the downside risk of employment and an increase in inflation. It is expected to cut interest rates twice this year and once next year. Milan cast the only dissenting vote, advocating a 50 - basis - point rate cut. The central bank will tender and issue 60 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong on September 22 [2] 3.2. Futures Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 18 Price | 2025 - 09 - 17 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 18 Position | 2025 - 09 - 17 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.414 | 102.45 | - 0.036 | 76,633 | 79,034 | - 2,401 | | TF2512 | 105.815 | 105.87 | - 0.055 | 150,650 | 147,322 | 3,328 | | T2512 | 108.065 | 108.135 | - 0.07 | 249,992 | 246,189 | 3,803 | | TL2512 | 115.68 | 115.82 | - 0.14 | 169,140 | 166,472 | 2,668 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0528 | - 0.0395 | - 0.0133 | | | | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.002 | - 0.0011 | - 0.0009 | | | | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.3044 | 0.2948 | 0.0096 | | | | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.5636 | 0.5555 | 0.0081 | | | | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume | 34,264 | 38,558 | - 4,294 | | | | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume | 64,176 | 70,704 | - 6,528 | | | | | T Main Contract Trading Volume | 93,558 | 101,611 | - 8,053 | | | | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume | 129,045 | 132,135 | - 3,090 | | | | [3] 3.3. Other Charts - The report also includes charts of the basis and IRR of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts, long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rate trends, deposit - type institution financing rates and policy rates, exchange financing rates, and US Treasury bond yield trends and US - China interest rate differentials and RMB exchange rates [4][8][10][11][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the factors affecting the bond market. The positive factors include a stable and loose capital supply, which provides continuous liquidity support and eases the pressure on the bond market, and the slower - than - expected issuance of government bonds, which reduces supply and eases concerns about the "asset shortage". The negative factors are that the manufacturing PMI has risen above 50, enhancing the expectation of economic improvement and suppressing the demand for bonds, and the 10 - year treasury bond variety has undergone shock adjustments, increasing the potential profit - taking pressure and weighing on market sentiment. The trading advice is to pay attention to the allocation value of the 10 - year treasury bond yield in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% and seize the trading opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Figures 3.1 Bond Yields - The report presents the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/04 [4]. 3.2 Interest Rates - The trends of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase by deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are shown [4]. 3.3 Bond Term Spreads - The trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [4]. 3.4 Bond Futures Positions - The positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are shown [6]. 3.5 Bond Futures Trading Volumes - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [7]. 3.6 Bond Futures Basis - The trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current - quarter contracts are shown from different time periods: 02/29 - 10/31 for 2 - year, 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 5 - year, 02/29 - 10/31 for 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [8][9][10][14]. 3.7 Bond Futures Inter - delivery Spreads - The trends of the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented from different time periods: 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [12][13][15][16]. 3.8 Bond Futures Cross - variety Spreads - The trends of the cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/04 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are presented [17][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, all Treasury bond futures closed lower. The closing prices of the 30 - year (TL), 10 - year (T), 5 - year (TF), and 2 - year (TS) Treasury bond futures in the main contracts decreased by 1.54%, 0.32%, 0.17%, and 0.04% respectively compared to last week. The overall Treasury bond futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with prices of all - term contracts declining. Due to the support of loose funding at the short - end, TF and TS performed better than TL and T. After the increase in equity risk appetite, Treasury bond futures were more likely to fall than rise. Although the weak economic data released on Friday morning supported a rebound in the morning session, the market then returned to the bearish direction [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volume - **Price**: The closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased by 1.54%, 0.32%, 0.17%, and 0.04% respectively compared to last week [4]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contracts continued to decline. The open interest of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased by 26.1%, 28%, 23.3%, and 19.6% respectively compared to last week. The total open interest of all contracts also decreased, with T, TL, TF, and TS decreasing by 0.7%, 1.3%, 5.6%, and 4.6% respectively compared to last week. The total open interest of all Treasury bond futures decreased by 2.83% compared to last week [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of Treasury bond futures rebounded significantly compared to last week. The trading volumes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts increased by 28%, 21.1%, 8.3%, and 18.9% respectively compared to last week; the trading volumes of all contracts increased by 44.6%, 31.8%, 16.6%, and 20.9% respectively compared to last week [4]. Spread and Ratio - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Except for the unchanged inter - delivery spread of the T variety, the spreads of other varieties widened. From the 09 - 12 month spread, the inter - delivery spread of TL continued to widen, rising by 0.1 yuan; the spreads of TS and TF reversed, rising from a decline to 0.014 yuan and 0.055 yuan respectively; the spread of T remained unchanged compared to last week [4]. - **Long - Short Ratio**: The long - short ratios of the top 20 seats in the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS were 0.99, 1.03, 0.93, and 0.93 respectively, changing by - 0.018, + 0.027, - 0.001, and + 0.019 respectively compared to last week. Among them, the long - short ratios of T and TS improved [4]. IRR and Basis - **IRR**: From the perspective of IRR, the IRR corresponding to the CTD of the T and TF main contracts rebounded marginally this week. The IRR corresponding to the CTD of the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts were - 1.2584%, 2.1507%, 1.5529%, and 1.1675% respectively, changing by - 2.6924%, + 0.7559%, + 0.0154%, and - 0.2929% respectively compared to last week. Among them, TL moved towards the lower extreme, T returned to the 3/4 quantile level of history, and TF and TS were at relatively low levels in history [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of TL and TS widened, while the basis of T and TF converged. The discount of the TL main contract widened by 0.2855 yuan compared to the closing price last week, and the widening of the discount may reflect that the market was more cautious about the future market trend [4]. Technical Analysis - Technically, the bearish sentiment dominated the market this week, and the price of the TL main contract broke through the support level. During the week, TL and T opened and closed lower, with significant declines compared to the closing price last Friday. Based on the trading volume distribution, the trading price of TL was mainly distributed (more than 80%) between about 117.52 - 118.43, while the trading price of T was distributed between about 108.31 - 108.48. According to the closing data on Friday, the prices of the T and TL main contracts both broke below the lower limit of the trading volume distribution center of gravity [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Morning Report - July 17, 2025 [1] - Author: Du Shufang from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - IC2507 has a discount of 10.59 points, and IM2507 has a discount of 17.66 points indicating a bearish outlook; in the bond futures market, the previous day saw a divergence in the two markets, with the weighted index adjusting, the Hong Kong stock market rising and then falling back, and the small - cap index strengthening, and the trading volume decreased (neutral); the margin trading balance increased by 4.9 billion yuan to 1.8772 trillion yuan (bullish); IH2507 has a discount of 7.3 points, and IF2507 has a discount of 9.2 points (neutral); the main contracts show IM>IC>IF>IH, and IH, IF, IM, IC, IF are above the 20 - day moving average (bullish); the main positions of IH decreased, IF increased, and IC decreased (bullish); the financial sector led by banks continued to adjust, indicating obvious short - term upward pressure, the index is oscillating at a high level, it is not recommended to chase high intraday, and appropriate reduction of positions is advisable when there is a sharp rise [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Index Futures Data**: For上证50, IH2507 had a contract price of 2,733.60 with a - 0.24% change, and a discount of 7.3 points; for沪深300, IF2507 had a contract price of 3,998.00 with a - 0.29% change, and a discount of 9.2 points; for中证500, IC2507 had a contract price of 6,006.60 with a 0.04% change, and a discount of 10.59 points; for中证1000, IM2507 had a contract price of 6,444.40 with a 0.41% change, and a discount of 17.66 points [4] - **Base and Spread Charts**: There are base and spread charts for上证50 and中证500, showing historical data trends [6][9] 3.2 Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Returns**: The daily returns of important indexes such as上证综指,上证50,沪深300, etc. are presented, with the上证50 having a - 0.23% return, the沪深300 having a - 0.30% return, etc [12] - **Style Index Daily Returns**: The daily returns of style indexes such as 300周期, 300非周期, low - P/E ratio index, etc. are shown, with the 300周期 having a - 0.16% return, the small - cap index having a 0.36% return, etc [15] 3.3 Market Structure - **AH Share Premium**: The historical data of the恒生AH溢价指数 is presented, showing the premium situation of A - shares over H - shares [22] - **P/E Ratio and P/B Ratio**: The historical P/E (TTM) and P/B ratios of上证50,沪深300,中证500, and创业板指 are presented [25][27] 3.4 Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflow**: The historical data of A - share fund net inflow and the沪深300 index are presented, showing the relationship between fund inflow and the index [29] - **Margin Trading Balance**: The historical data of margin trading balance and the沪深300 index are presented [31] - **Northbound Capital Inflow**: The historical data of northbound capital net inflow is presented [33] - **Fund Cost**: The historical data of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates are presented [39] 3.5 Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The historical data of turnover rates (free - floating market value) of上证50,沪深300,中证500, and创业板指 are presented [42][45] - **Mutual Fund Positions**: The historical data of the positions of public - offering hybrid funds is presented [47] 3.6 Other Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Bond Yield**: The historical data of the dividend yields of index futures and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield are presented [51] - **Exchange Rate**: The historical data of the US dollar - RMB exchange rate is presented [53] - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: The relationship between new account openings and the上证综指 is tracked [54] - **New Fund Establishment Scale**: The changes in the new establishment scales of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are presented [56][58][60]