1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The high supply, low inventory, and high - demand expectations determine the main logic of a slightly upward - trending oscillation for urea in March. However, the guiding price for supply - guarantee and price - stability and subsequent state reserve releases will limit the upside potential. The market mainly focuses on domestic supply and demand, and the probability of export liberalization during the spring plowing season is low [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea opened higher and closed lower on March 2, 2026, with a decline during the day. The guiding price in March is higher than that in February, and the spot price has increased. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1800 - 1840 yuan/ton, up 20 - 30 yuan/ton from last Friday [1][6]. - As of February 25, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data is 218,000 tons, and the daily production has been above 200,000 tons within the month. There are no long - term shutdown and maintenance plans in the short term, and some gas - based plants are resuming production. After the Lantern Festival, downstream industries start to resume production, and the wheat green - turning top - dressing may be advanced due to snow and rain in North China, which will drive inventory reduction. The current inventory level is much lower than that after the Spring Festival last year, supporting the urea price [1]. - March is the peak season for agricultural demand, and the preparation for wheat green - turning top - dressing has begun. The snow and rain recently have advanced the agricultural demand. The operating load of compound fertilizer plants dropped sharply in mid - February due to the Spring Festival holiday and is expected to gradually resume production after the Lantern Festival. As the Chinese New Year was late this year, the current operating load is lower than the same period last year. The spring fertilizer has not been shipped in a centralized manner, and the finished product inventory in the factory is high. During the high - nitrogen compound fertilizer demand period, urea is expected to be strongly supported [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures - The main urea contract 2605 opened at 1860 yuan/ton, opened higher and closed lower, and finally closed at 1817 yuan/ton, down 1.14%. The trading volume was 262,781 lots, an increase of 2,904 lots. Among the top 20 long and short positions of the main contract, the long positions increased by 2,630 lots, and the short positions increased by 9,081 lots. For example, GF Futures had a net long position of - 325 lots, China Merchants Futures had a net long position of - 638 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net short position of + 5,196 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of + 3,898 lots [2][3]. - On February 27, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2.2. Spot - The guiding price in March is higher than that in February, and the spot price has increased. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1800 - 1840 yuan/ton, up 20 - 30 yuan/ton from last Friday [1][6]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1. Basis - The mainstream spot market price increased, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was 43 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3.2. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 2, 2026, the national daily urea production was 216,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.77% [10].