2025年11月17日-11月23日中国47港铁矿石到港总量2939.5万吨，环比增加569.6万吨；中国45港铁矿石 到港总量2817.1万吨，环比增加548.2万吨；北方六港铁矿石到港总量1438.3万吨，环比增加397.0万吨。 后市来看，铁矿石期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 11月25日，国内期市黑色金属板块多数飘红。其中，铁矿石期货主力合约开盘报791.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，铁矿石主力最高触及800.0元，下方探低791.0元，涨幅达1.08%附近。 卫星数据显示，2025年11月17日-11月23日期间，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量1131.7万 吨，环比下降153.6万吨，大幅去库，当前库存水平处于年初以来的最低值。 2025年11月第3周，共计14个工作日，巴西铁矿石2552.21万吨，去年11月为3348.44万吨。日均装运量为 182.3万吨/日，较去年11月的176.23万吨/日增加3.44%。 南华期货（603093）表示，近期铁矿石价格宽幅震荡，短期走势受焦煤主导。随着国内保供稳价政策推 进及蒙古煤发运恢复，焦煤价格走弱，反而通过修复钢厂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests patience with the Iron Ore 05 contract, waiting for basis repair and market sentiment to improve. Consider shorting at a high price after the contract rebounds above 770 yuan to enhance safety margins. Shorting at current price and basis levels may lead to double losses [2][3][5]. - The short - term price of iron ore is strong, mainly driven by the strong coking coal price. However, the policy is now focused on "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", and coking coal prices are expected to fall, which will support iron ore prices [3]. - The current fundamentals of iron ore are in short - term supply - demand balance. Although the overall port inventory is high, the shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, a strong spot market, and a widened basis [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Leveraging Factors**: Decreasing port inventory of deliverable mainstream medium - high grade powder ores supports near - month contracts and basis; the sharp decline in coking coal prices creates room for iron ore prices; steel demand has improved and inventory has decreased [3]. - **Negative Factors**: China is in a macro - vacuum period with weak high - frequency economic data; the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has dropped significantly, reducing market risk appetite [3]. - **Market Situation**: Iron ore prices are in a wide - range shock, with short - term strength driven by coking coal. The coking coal price is expected to fall due to policy changes. Iron ore fundamentals are in short - term balance, with high basis and a positive spread pattern [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait for basis repair before considering shorting the far - month contract of iron ore [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - The Iron Ore 2601 contract should be traded within the range of [760, 810] [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about price drops, short the iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at 820 - 830; sell call options (I2512 - C - 830) with a 30% ratio at high prices [7]. - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, go long on iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 30% hedging ratio at 780 - 790; sell out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 780) with a 40% ratio at high prices [7]. 1.4 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: Iron water cost increased by 45.18 yuan/ton week - on - week and 105.16 yuan/ton month - on - month; blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton week - on - week; blast furnace rebar profit remained unchanged week - on - week [7]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Data**: Global shipments increased by 447.4 tons week - on - week; Australian and Brazilian shipments increased by 390.3 tons week - on - week; 45 - port arrivals decreased by 472.3 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Iron Ore Demand Data**: Daily average steel mill shipments increased by 2.97 tons week - on - week; daily average iron water production decreased by 0.6 tons week - on - week; blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [10]. - **Iron Ore Inventory Data**: 45 - port imported ore inventory decreased by 75.06 tons week - on - week; steel mill imported ore inventory decreased by 74.78 tons week - on - week [11]. 2. Supply 2.1 Global Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of global iron ore shipments, year - to - date cumulative global shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative global shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [12]. 2.2 Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis - Studied the seasonality of shipments from the four major mines, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [16][17]. 2.3 Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of non - mainstream mine shipments, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between the Platts iron ore index and non - mainstream mine shipments. Also examined the proportion of non - mainstream mines and four major mines in global shipments [22][26]. 2.4 Arrival and Berthing Analysis - Studied the seasonality of arrivals at 47 ports, year - to - date cumulative arrival volume differences, the number of ships at berth, berthing days, and actual arrival volume [28][30][32]. 2.5 Capsize Shipping Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of freight prices for capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of iron ore freight in different products, and the seasonality of capsize ship speeds [36][39][41]. 2.6 Domestic Ore Supply Analysis - Examined the seasonality of daily average iron concentrate production of 186 mining enterprises and monthly iron concentrate production of 433 mining enterprises, as well as the year - to - date cumulative daily average production seasonality and monthly production year - on - year changes [44][46]. 3. Demand Analysis 3.1 Iron Water Analysis - Studied the seasonality of daily average iron water production of 247 steel enterprises, the relationship between iron water production and blast furnace maintenance, and the relationship between iron water production and iron ore prices [48][50][52]. 3.2 Steel Mill Profit Analysis - Analyzed the production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the relationship between profits and future production of different steel products [54][57][60]. 3.3 Downstream Steel Analysis: Rebar - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and price - cost relationship of rebar, as well as the production proportion of short - process steel mills and the relationship between rebar prices and cement shipments [66][71][72]. 3.4 Downstream Steel Analysis: Hot - rolled Coil - Analyzed the production, consumption, inventory, and price differences of hot - rolled coils [74][75][77]. 3.6 Downstream Steel Analysis: Medium - thick Plate - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [79][80]. 3.5 Export Analysis - Analyzed China's steel export volume, port outbound volume, export orders, and export profits of hot - rolled coils [99][100][101]. 4. Inventory Analysis 4.1 Port Inventory Analysis - Studied the seasonality of 45 - port iron ore imports, the structure of port inventory, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore prices [103][105][107]. 4.2 Other Inventory Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of iron ore imports in 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills and in - transit iron ore, and the estimated turnover days of iron ore inventory [122][123]. 5. Valuation Analysis 5.1 Basis and Term Structure - Provided the basis and delivery profit data of different iron ore varieties, and analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different iron ore contracts and the term structure of iron ore futures [124][125]. 5.2 Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio - Studied the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio for different contracts [127]. 5.3 Coking Coal Ratio Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore spread for different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore prices [129][130]. 5.4 Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis - Studied the iron - scrap steel price difference, the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and scrap steel consumption ratio, and the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and iron water - scrap steel daily consumption [132][133][135].

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing University is testing a new dining service model in its cafeteria, which includes high-priced seafood items like the 999 yuan King Crab, aiming to diversify offerings and meet various student needs [1][3] Group 1: Service Upgrade and Menu Diversification - The ninth cafeteria at Nanjing University is undergoing a service upgrade and menu testing phase to explore a more diverse dining service model [1] - The cafeteria has received positive feedback from students regarding the new offerings [1] - The introduction of high-priced items is part of a promotional effort during the trial operation [1] Group 2: Commitment to Affordability and Variety - Nanjing University has adjusted its menu to ensure a richer and more affordable selection, aligning with the basic positioning of university cafeterias [3] - The university has implemented various initiatives to maintain supply and stabilize prices, including low-cost meal options such as 1 yuan breakfast and 7-10 yuan student meal sets [3] - The cafeteria has also introduced popular themed food events, which have been well-received by students [3] Group 3: Public Reaction - The introduction of the 999 yuan King Crab and 158 yuan Boston Lobster has sparked significant discussion online [3]

Core Insights - Guizhou Phosphate has exceeded its phosphate supply completion target by 4.91% as of the end of September [1] Group 1: Supply Assurance Measures - The company has implemented four major measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices: 1. Industry self-discipline by scientifically scheduling production and fully releasing quality capacity to ensure sufficient basic supply, while resisting price gouging and hoarding behaviors [1] 2. Fertilizer security through the establishment of 42 central warehouses in major grain-producing areas, with an annual average fertilizer storage capacity of 500,000 tons to address seasonal storage and supply issues [1] 3. Efficiency improvement by developing various DAP+ products based on traditional diammonium phosphate (DAP) to achieve both reduction in fertilizer usage and increased efficiency [1] 4. Strict self-discipline during the winter storage and spring sales period, with multiple downward adjustments in fertilizer prices to stabilize market expectations and support farmers' production and income [1] Group 2: Production and Market Performance - Guizhou Phosphate has consistently exceeded domestic phosphate supply guarantees in recent years, with fertilizer application volumes reaching new highs annually [1] - The company has successfully mitigated the impact of raw material price fluctuations on production, ensuring stable operation of fertilizer production facilities and consistently exceeding target tasks [1] - Through optimization of production scheduling, logistics distribution, and seasonal storage strategies, the company has increased the domestic supply of various fertilizers, surpassing 4 million tons [1]

Core Insights - The company is actively enhancing its supply chain and logistics to meet the increased demand for fresh produce and seafood during the holiday season [1][2] Group 1: Supply Chain Innovations - The company has implemented a "direct procurement + order agriculture" model, collaborating with over 20 major agricultural production areas to secure a daily supply that is 1.5 times higher than usual [1] - For seasonal fruits like pomegranates and oranges, the company ensures that products are harvested and delivered within 24 hours, improving freshness by 30% compared to previous practices [1] Group 2: Product Offerings and Quality Assurance - The company has prepared various seafood packages featuring local specialties such as Panjin river crabs and grass shrimp, supported by a 70,000 square meter smart cold storage facility that maintains a loss rate of below 5% [2] - A total of 2,000 tons of frozen beef and lamb, along with 3,000 tons of seafood, have been pre-stocked to meet diverse customer needs [2] Group 3: Safety and Pricing Measures - Daily pesticide residue testing is conducted on incoming fruits and vegetables, with immediate removal of any non-compliant products to ensure market safety [2] - The company monitors agricultural product prices in real-time, successfully reducing the prices of essential vegetables like potatoes and cabbages by 5% compared to normal levels [2]

Group 1: Holiday Consumer Environment - The city development and reform commission has organized a series of market price inspections to ensure a safe and stable holiday consumer environment, focusing on scenic area pricing and the supply of essential goods [1] - Key scenic areas have been inspected for compliance with pricing regulations, with no violations found, ensuring clear communication of ticket prices and discounts for specific groups [1] Group 2: Supply and Pricing of Essential Goods - Inspections of price control entities revealed that they have proactively organized supplies to ensure market stability, with fresh pork supply at a discount store increasing nearly fivefold compared to normal [2] - Various price control outlets are expanding their discount offerings, with half of the discounted agricultural products having a discount of no less than 20% during the holiday period [2] Group 3: Innovative Service Approaches - Supermarkets are introducing innovative service methods, such as a low-cost vegetable combo pack and live-streaming sales of fresh produce, enhancing the accessibility and affordability of essential goods for residents [3] - These initiatives reflect the effectiveness and humanistic care of the holiday supply and price stabilization policies [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable prices and sufficient supply of essential goods during the holiday season to protect consumer rights and ensure a safe shopping environment [1][2] - Local authorities have initiated special inspections covering supermarkets, markets, and production enterprises to monitor compliance with pricing regulations and prevent price gouging and false advertising [1] - The inspections focus on key consumer goods such as grains, oils, fresh produce, and mooncakes, with a targeted approach to identify and rectify any pricing violations [1][2] Group 2 - Regulatory efforts have been intensified in the food production sector, with inspections conducted at local pastry production enterprises to ensure quality control from raw material procurement to final product packaging [2] - A total of 48 law enforcement personnel were deployed to inspect over 60 production and business entities, resulting in four corrective action notices issued, all of which have been addressed [2] - The authorities plan to continue strengthening market supervision during the holiday period, with a zero-tolerance policy towards pricing violations to ensure public health and safety [2]

Report Title - Steel Q4 Report: Cost Support, Upside Depends on Policy [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals remain weak with high supply pressure, weak downstream demand for rebar, some support for hot-rolled coil demand, and strong exports. The market is expected to be dominated by macro policies in Q4, with limited downside and upside space depending on policy implementation. Steel is expected to fluctuate strongly within a certain range [7][12] - In Q3, the spot steel price increased by about 5%. The rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend and strengthened slightly, with macro policies dominating the market. The unilateral positions in the steel futures market remained high in Q3 and decreased at the end of the quarter [12] - As of the end of September, the rebar-iron ore ratio was 3.94, down 0.43 compared to the end of December. The hot-rolled coil - rebar spread (01 contract) was 199 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [12] Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoint Strategy - **Core**: The steel fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure, weak downstream demand for rebar, and strong exports. The market is expected to be dominated by macro policies in Q4, with limited downside and upside space depending on policy implementation. Steel is expected to fluctuate strongly within a certain range [12] - **Logic**: Q4 is expected to be dominated by macro policies. With policy support at the coal end, the downside space for steel is limited, but the upside depends on policy efforts [12] - **Spot and Futures Market**: In Q3, the spot steel price increased by about 5%. The rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend and strengthened slightly, with macro policies dominating the market. The unilateral positions in the steel futures market remained high in Q3 and decreased at the end of the quarter [12] - **Spread**: As of the end of September, the rebar-iron ore ratio was 3.94, down 0.43 compared to the end of December. The hot-rolled coil - rebar spread (01 contract) was 199 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [12] - **Strategy**: Consider interval operations. The rebar 01 contract is expected to trade between 3050 - 3400 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil 10 contract between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips [12] 02 Macro Level - In Q3, policy expectations dominated the black - sector market. Policies such as the construction of a unified national market, the upcoming release of a steady - growth plan for key industries, and the implementation of the "Anti - involution" policy had different impacts on the market, causing price fluctuations in the black sector [15] 03 Spot and Basis - **Spot Price**: In Q3, the rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend, with a spot price increase of about 5%. Policy expectations and coal price fluctuations were the main drivers of price changes [17] - **Futures Market**: The rebar futures showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend, with the main contract fluctuating around 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton. The hot-rolled coil futures also showed a similar trend, with stronger terminal demand and greater resistance to price drops [20][31] - **Basis**: The rebar basis fluctuated around 100 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil basis first decreased and then increased, fluctuating around 50 yuan/ton at the end of September [21][31] - **Open Interest**: The rebar futures open interest fluctuated around 3 million lots in Q3 and decreased at the end of the quarter. The hot-rolled coil futures open interest first increased and then decreased [22][34] - **Inter - period Spread**: The rebar futures price curve steepened, and the inter - period spread widened. The hot-rolled coil futures price curve showed a mild Back structure, and the 10 - 1 spread increased [25][40] 04 Spread - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio**: As of the end of September, the rebar-iron ore ratio was 3.94, down 0.43 compared to the end of December. There may be opportunities to short the rebar-iron ore ratio in the future [44][45] - **Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar Spread**: As of the end of September, the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread (01 contract) was 199 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton compared to the end of June. Consider shorting the spread at high levels in the future [47] 05 Supply - **Overall Production**: As of September 26, the cumulative production of five major steel products was 335 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The cumulative rebar production was 83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.05%, and the hot-rolled coil production was 129 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.44% [50] - **Regional Production**: In the East China region, the production of sample enterprises decreased in September. In the South region, the rebar production increased slightly, while in the North region, it decreased compared to last year [54] - **Production Process**: The long - process production was basically flat year - on - year, while the short - process production decreased. The iron water production of steel mills remained high, and the short - process electric furnace production was average, with a slight year - on - year decrease in scrap consumption [57][64] - **Cost Comparison**: The blast furnace production was more cost - effective than the electric furnace production this year [67] 06 Demand - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Demand**: As of the week of September 26, the cumulative apparent demand for rebar was 80.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.08 million tons, while that for hot-rolled coil was 124.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99 million tons [72] - **Profitability**: The profitability of steel mills remained above 50% in the first three quarters. The profits of blast furnace rebar production, electric furnace production, and hot-rolled coil production first increased and then decreased, with hot-rolled coil having relatively strong profits [74][83] - **Investment and Consumption**: From January to August, real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while infrastructure investment increased slightly. The cement and concrete shipments decreased year - on - year, while the added value of multiple manufacturing industries increased [86][101] - **Exports**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The exports of bars and billets increased significantly, while those of plates decreased [104] 07 Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 420,000 tons, and the social inventory was 10.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.77 million tons [108] - **Rebar Inventory**: The rebar inventory pressure was high, with the factory inventory and social inventory increasing year - on - year. The warehouse receipts at Jiangsu Huilong Port put pressure on the near - month contracts [112] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: The hot-rolled coil inventory continued to accumulate, with relatively high inventory levels [114]

Core Insights - The article discusses the proactive measures taken by the Shandong Province's Binzhou Development and Reform Commission in collaboration with the Market Supervision Bureau to monitor and ensure stable prices and sufficient supply of essential goods during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [1][3]. Group 1: Market Monitoring and Supply - A special inspection was conducted to assess the supply of essential goods such as grains, oils, meats, eggs, dairy, vegetables, and mooncakes, as well as the pricing of hotel accommodations [3]. - The inspection revealed that the market supply is sufficient, consumer demand is strong, and there are no abnormal price fluctuations, indicating a prosperous supply-demand balance [3]. Group 2: Ongoing Price Monitoring - The Binzhou Development and Reform Commission will continue to monitor changes in prices of essential goods and restaurant accommodations during the holiday period, ensuring supply stability and price maintenance [5]. - A daily monitoring and reporting system for 50 essential consumer goods will be implemented to detect and report any emerging price issues promptly [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions - The commission will collaborate with market regulatory departments to combat illegal activities such as hoarding and price gouging, thereby maintaining normal market price order [6].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are expected to see stable supply and moderate prices for essential goods, creating a favorable environment for holiday consumption [1][3]. Supply and Demand - Various types of vegetables, fruits, and meat are in ample supply at the Xinfadi wholesale market, with a noticeable increase in consumer purchasing ahead of the holidays [1][2]. - The trading volume of fruits at Xinfadi market has increased by 20% compared to normal, stabilizing at around 13,000 tons, with an average price of 7.92 yuan per kilogram, remaining consistent with last year [2]. - Seafood demand has also risen, particularly for items like hairy crabs and abalones, with daily seafood trading volumes exceeding 2,000 tons, which is 30% higher than usual [2]. Price Monitoring and Policy Measures - The "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" was reported at 118.85, with the "Vegetable Basket" product price index at 119.75, indicating stable pricing trends [2]. - Local governments, such as Tianjin and Fuzhou, have implemented measures to ensure stable prices and sufficient supply of essential goods during the holidays, including price monitoring and coordination among various departments [4][5]. - The Ministry of Agriculture has emphasized the importance of maintaining production supply for key agricultural products and has initiated measures to stabilize the supply of vegetables and meat [6][7].