1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market opened higher and closed higher today, with the market transaction price rising after the increase in futures trading yesterday [1]. - High daily production and national reserve supplies ensure domestic urea supply, contrasting with the shortage of overseas resources [1]. - The start - up data of compound fertilizer factories continued to rise this period, but the increase has shrunk significantly. Agricultural demand is basically weakening, and the downstream support mainly relies on nitrogen - containing compound fertilizers in spring and summer, supplemented by the demand from panel factories and melamine [1]. - The inventory continued to decline this period, with a 13.4% decrease compared to last week, and is expected to continue to decline next week [1]. - The market price fluctuation has narrowed. The main tone of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices limits the rise and fall of urea, and the price fluctuations of other commodities have also weakened. The urea market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The urea market opened higher and closed higher today, and the market transaction price increased after the rise in futures trading yesterday. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in major domestic producing areas such as Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are concentrated at 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1872 yuan/ton, closed higher, and finally closed at 1877 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.43%. The trading volume was 191703 lots, a decrease of 4937 lots. Among the top 20 main positions of the main contract, the long position decreased by 945 lots, and the short position decreased by 1075 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of +447 lots, China Merchants Futures had a net long position of +418 lots, Guotai Junan had a net short position of +1546 lots, and Galaxy Futures had a net short position of -1967 lots [2]. - On March 26, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8707, a decrease of 317 compared to the previous trading day. Among them, Meishan Xindu (Yuntu Holdings UR) decreased by 250, and Zhongnong Yuncang decreased by 67 [2]. 3.2.2. Spot - After the increase in futures trading yesterday, the market transaction price increased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in major domestic producing areas such as Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are concentrated at 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1. Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was -17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3.2. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 27, 2026, the national daily urea production was 218,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons compared to yesterday, and the start - up rate was 86.91% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The urea market is in a state of strong consolidation. High daily production and state - reserve supplies ensure domestic urea supply, contrasting with overseas shortages. The current fundamentals are in the peak - season verification stage. With a tight supply - demand balance and a positive sentiment in the energy and chemical sector, urea is showing a strong trend. However, due to the domestic situation of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, investors should be cautious about chasing the rising trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - **Futures**: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1865 yuan/ton, closed higher on the day, and finally closed at 1875 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.41%. The trading volume was 196,640 lots, an increase of 4,576 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 2,775 lots and short positions increased by 3,359 lots. On March 26, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 9,024, an increase of 239 from the previous trading day [2]. - **Spot**: The market trading activity is poor, but upstream factories have no shipping pressure. The ex - factory prices of urea factories in major domestic producing areas such as Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are concentrated at 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation is stable, and the futures closing price has risen. Based on the Henan region, the basis has weakened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the May contract is - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: On March 26, 2026, the national daily urea production was 215,800 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.03% [8]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of March 25, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 700,500 tons, a decrease of 108,400 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 13.40%. The pre - sale order days were 8.24 days, a decrease of 0.05 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [12]. - **Downstream**: From March 21 to March 27, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 51.24%, an increase of 3.28 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 65.98%, an increase of 6.67 percentage points from the previous week [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply - demand is weak, but cost support is strong. Suggest a phased low - long approach with put options for hedging, and avoid chasing positive spreads in the month - spread [1]. - PTA: Short - term self - drive is limited, and the absolute price follows the cost. Adopt a phased low - long strategy with put options for hedging, and avoid chasing positive spreads in the month - spread [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: There is upward momentum before the resumption of Middle - East oil transportation, but beware of the risk of a sharp fall after the rise. Lightly buy EG2605 call options [1]. - Short - fiber: Short - term self - drive is weak, following raw material fluctuations. PF's unilateral strategy is the same as PTA, and its processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [1]. - Bottle chips: PR's unilateral strategy is the same as PTA, the processing fee on the main PR disk is expected to be strong, and lightly buy PR2605 call options [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: May follow oil price fluctuations. Long positions can be protected with put options. Temporarily observe the EB05 - BZ05 spread and watch for opportunities to narrow it [2]. - Styrene: The absolute price follows oil price fluctuations. The strategy is the same as that for pure benzene [2]. Crude Oil Industry - If the situation does not improve or new variables occur, there will be a substantial shortage of supply in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and crude oil futures prices may further approach Dubai spot prices with continuous upward momentum [3]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda Ash: The fundamental supply is strong and demand is weak. The market will be mainly based on fundamental and cost - support logic, with a weak - oscillating trend. Pay attention to the support of SA605 at around 1150 [5]. - Glass: The overall supply - demand is weak. The market will be mainly based on fundamental and cost - support logic, with a weak - oscillating trend. Pay attention to the support of FG605 at around 1030 [5]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Although the fundamentals are marginally improving, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [6]. - PVC: The market is expected to run strongly with oscillations in the short term [6]. Urea Industry - Urea: Under the influence of policies, the short - term market will mainly oscillate with limited corrections [7]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: Import reduction dominates the current market. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices, but beware of demand sustainability and policy risks [8]. Polyolefin Industry - Polyolefins: Cost and supply - side drivers are dominant, and the price center is likely to rise. The increase may be stronger than that of other chemicals in the short term [9]. LPG Industry No specific core view is provided in the report, but price and inventory data are presented. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Brent crude oil (May) rose 3.54 to 112.19 dollars/barrel, a 3.3% increase. Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows showed different degrees of decline [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply is expected to decrease due to plant maintenance, and downstream polyester cost transmission is not smooth. PTA may accumulate inventory in March, and ethylene glycol supply is expected to decline, with inventory likely to decrease [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil (May) rose 3.54 to 108.65 dollars/barrel, a 3.3% increase. Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads showed various changes [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pure benzene supply is expected to decrease, and downstream product prices are rising. Styrene supply is expected to remain stable, but demand is weak [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent rose 3.54 to 112.19 dollars/barrel, a 3.26% increase; WTI rose 2.68 to 98.23 dollars/barrel, a 2.80% increase [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused substantial production cuts in the Middle - East, and the demand side has a need to replenish inventories [3]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices were generally stable, with slight declines in futures prices [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash supply is stable with a slight increase in production, and demand is weak. Glass supply is decreasing, and demand is also weak [5]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Caustic soda prices rose, and PVC prices were relatively stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply decreased, and demand improved marginally. PVC supply decreased slightly, and demand was average [6]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Urea futures prices fell, and spot prices were slightly loose [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea supply decreased slightly due to increased maintenance, and agricultural demand is gradually recovering [7]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices fell, and inventory decreased [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic methanol production increased, and import is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is expected to improve [8]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Polyolefin futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to decrease due to production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [9]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: LPG futures and spot prices rose, and the basis increased [10]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG refinery inventory and port inventory increased, and the upstream refinery开工率 decreased while the downstream PDH开工率 increased [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The fertilizer industry's supply guarantee and price stabilization measures have shown some effectiveness. The urea futures price has dropped significantly, while the spot price has remained relatively stable. The current fundamentals of both supply and demand are at their peak, but the sustainability of demand is weak. Policy signals indicate price stabilization. It is expected that the upward drive for urea futures in the later period will mainly come from the influence of other chemical futures, and the urea's own fundamentals and policy do not support the futures price to remain at the current level in the long term [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The weekly average daily output in different periods from March 13 - April 9, 2026, was 21.71, 20.86, 21.43, and 21.43 tons respectively. Last week, 6 new enterprises stopped production, 3 restarted, and this week, 1 enterprise is planned for maintenance and 2 stopped enterprises are expected to resume production [5] - **Demand**: Agricultural demand for wheat fertilization has started. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer in this cycle is 49.97%, a 4.41 - percentage - point increase from the previous cycle. The load in Hebei has increased significantly, and large - scale enterprises in Shandong and Henan continue to increase their loads. The load in Hubei remains stable due to weather - affected shipping. The compound fertilizer production in other regions is relatively stable. The consumption of urea for thermal power desulfurization and denitrification is expected to decline with the temperature rise [5] - **Inventory**: As of March 18, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons or 15.53% from the previous cycle. The inventory continues to decline, and the market trading atmosphere is good with smooth sales [5] - **Valuation**: The production cost of the new coal - gasification process in Henan urea factories has increased due to the rise in coal prices. The current profit is at a reasonable level and is expected to remain stable [5] - **Strategy**: In the futures market, urea futures showed a unilateral downward trend this week. The government's strong supply - guarantee policies, including early release of reserves and tightened export policies, have put pressure on urea futures. Although the overseas urea price has soared, its impact on domestic futures is weak. The spot market is stable, and the basis of urea futures has returned [5] 3.2 Price - **Domestic Urea Spot Price**: The report presents the historical price trends of urea in Henan, Sichuan, and different - sized particles in Shanxi from 2022 - 2026 [7][8] - **International Urea Price and Spread**: It shows the historical data of small - particle urea's port - collection profit in Shandong, the cost difference between the Middle East and Shandong port - collection, and the FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East from 2022 - 2026 [9][10] - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: The historical price trends of Hubei's monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, and Shandong's 60% potassium chloride powder from 2022 - 2026 are presented [12][13] - **Urea Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - month Spread**: The report shows the historical data of the closing price of the urea 05 - contract futures, the 5 - 9 spread, and the 05 - contract basis from 2021 - 2026 [14][15] 3.3 Supply - **Urea Production**: The historical data of China's weekly average daily urea production, natural - gas - based urea production, and coal - based urea production from 2022 - 2026 are presented [18][19] - **Urea Cost and Profit**: The historical price trends of smokeless medium - sized coal, bituminous coal, the marginal profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi, and the marginal profit of the new process in Henan from 2022 - 2026 are shown [21][22] - **Urea Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: The historical data of urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption from 2022 - 2026 are presented [23][24] 3.4 Demand - **Compound Fertilizer Industry**: The historical data of the compound fertilizer enterprise's start - up rate and inventory from 2022 - 2026 are presented [27][28] - **Melamine Industry**: The historical data of melamine's weekly production, price, and the melamine/urea price ratio from 2023 - 2026 are presented [29][30] - **Export**: The historical data of China's monthly urea export volume and cumulative export volume from 2022 - 2026 are presented [31][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - L: Bullish [1][10] - PP: Bullish [1][14] - PVC: Bullish [1][18] - PTA: Bullish [4][21] - MEG: Bullish [4][24] - Methanol: Bullish [5][29] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [5][33] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [1][36] Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts have led to supply shortages and cost increases in the energy and chemical sectors, driving up prices. - The fundamentals of various products are improving, with supply-side reductions and demand-side recoveries expected in the coming months. - The market is closely watching geopolitical developments, cost trends, and policy changes, which will have a significant impact on prices. Summaries by Related Catalogs L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,916 yuan/ton, up 5.8% from the previous day. The weighted volume increased by 29.2% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Spot prices lagged behind, and the basis weakened significantly. The cost of ethylene remained strong. Some cracking units at home and abroad reduced their loads due to a shortage of raw materials, and the domestic parking ratio was 12.3%. The planned maintenance volume in March increased. Geopolitical conflicts raised the price center. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][10]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 8,628 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The weighted volume increased slightly by 0.2% [12]. - **Core Logic**: Propane prices continued to soar, compressing PDH profits. The supply was strongly supported. The attack on the South Pars gas field increased the expected supply reduction. The current parking ratio was at a high of 22%. The supply-demand pattern was favorable. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,860 yuan/ton, up 2.2% from the previous day. The weighted volume increased by 15.2% [16]. - **Core Logic**: The US dollar quotation increased by 25% month-on-month, and the external market was strongly supported. Geopolitical conflicts have not been resolved, and the shortage of raw material ethylene has intensified the expected load reduction of global ethylene-based PVC units. Some domestic ethylene-based units have started to reduce their loads. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][18]. PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,070 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day. The PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton [19]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continued, and there were no obvious signs of easing. The TA05 closing price was at a high in the past year, with a backwardation structure. The supply side saw domestic units reducing their loads, while the downstream demand seasonally recovered. The inventory increased, and the cost side was favorable. The PX fundamentals continued to improve. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term, and the supply-demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [4][20]. MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 4,729 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan from the previous day. The weighted production cost was 5,794.5 yuan/ton, and the production profit was -1,511.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation of ethylene glycol has been repaired, with a backwardation structure. Both domestic and overseas units significantly reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in March. The downstream demand seasonally recovered, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease from March to April. The cost side was affected by geopolitical conflicts, with oil prices fluctuating strongly and coal prices stabilizing [4][23]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol market showed a strong trend, with the main contract at a high level in the past year [27]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical games dominated the market trend, and the fundamentals were expected to improve. The valuation was generally high, with a backwardation structure. The domestic methanol load slightly declined but remained at a high level, while overseas units reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease from February to March. The demand side was weakly stable, and the port inventory was rapidly depleted [5][27]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,847 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit was 145.01 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small particle basis was 13 yuan/ton [30]. - **Core Logic**: The absolute valuation of urea was not low, and the overall start-up load continued to increase. The demand side had a weak reality but strong expectations, with winter storage demand weakening and industrial demand being weak. The export of urea and fertilizers was relatively good. The social inventory continued to accumulate. Under the background of "export quotas" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices," there was a ceiling and a floor for urea prices. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5][31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,465 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from the previous day [35]. - **Core Logic**: The factory inventory declined from a high level, and the basis strengthened. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East intensified the expected load reduction of overseas and domestic ethylene-based chlor-alkali integrated units. The Tianjin chlor-alkali unit rapidly reduced its load, but the domestic overall maintained a high load. Attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export order volume. The market is waiting for further fundamental guidance [1][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Bullish [2] - PP: Bullish [2] - PVC: Bullish [2] - PX/PTA: Cautiously Bullish [5] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Bullish [6] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Urea: Take Profits on High [7] - Caustic Soda: Sideways [2] 2. Core Views - **L**: Geopolitical conflicts persist, ethylene prices rise, and cost support is strong. Supply may decrease due to equipment maintenance, and the market is expected to remain bullish until raw material shortages are resolved [2][11]. - **PP**: High maintenance on the supply side, approaching peak demand season, and improving fundamentals. Geopolitical disruptions have affected some equipment, and the market is expected to be strong in the olefin sector [2][15]. - **PVC**: Rising costs of calcium carbide and ethylene, and the 5 - 9 spread is strengthening. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the expectation of production cuts in ethylene - based PVC, and the market is expected to be bullish [2][19]. - **PX/PTA**: Crude oil is oscillating strongly to make up for the supply gap. TA has a high valuation, and the supply side has seen some equipment cuts. Downstream demand is improving, and the market is expected to improve in March - April [5][21]. - **MEG**: Supply - side equipment has significantly reduced production both at home and abroad. Demand is seasonally recovering, and imports are expected to decrease. The market is expected to improve in March - April [6][24]. - **Methanol**: Geopolitical games dominate the market, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Domestic production is slightly down but still high, and overseas equipment has reduced production. Imports are expected to decline, and the port inventory is decreasing [6][28]. - **Urea**: The nitrogen fertilizer association implements the "supply guarantee and price stability" policy, and exports are difficult to liberalize before the domestic spring plowing ends. The market is fundamentally loose, with high production and weak demand, but there are expectations of spring fertilization and export speculation [7][32]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - concentration caustic soda lags in price increases, and the basis is weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased the expectation of production cuts in ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated equipment. The domestic overall load remains high, and the industry can consider reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [2][36]. 3. Summaries by Variety L - **Market Data**: L05 closed at 8496 yuan/ton, down 2.1% from the previous day. The L05 - 09 spread was 294 yuan/ton, and the L05 basis was - 287 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts drive up ethylene prices, providing cost support. Some cracking equipment has reduced production due to raw material shortages, and planned maintenance in March is increasing [11]. PP - **Market Data**: PP05 closed at 8671 yuan/ton, down 2.1% from the previous day. The PP05 - 09 spread was 492 yuan/ton, and the PP05 basis was - 2 yuan/ton [13][14]. - **Logic**: High maintenance on the supply side, approaching peak demand season. Geopolitical disruptions have caused some MTO and PDH equipment to reduce production, and PDH profits are extremely low [15]. PVC - **Market Data**: V05 closed at 5901 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from the previous day. The V05 - 09 spread was 16 yuan/ton, and the V05 basis was - 171 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Logic**: Rising costs of calcium carbide and ethylene, and geopolitical conflicts have increased the expectation of production cuts in ethylene - based PVC [19]. PTA - **Market Data**: TA05 closed at 6070 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 200 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton [20]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the supply side has seen some equipment cuts. Downstream demand is seasonally recovering, but the increase is weaker than expected. PX fundamentals are improving, and the market is expected to improve in March - April [21]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, consider buying on dips, and conduct TA5 - 9 positive spreads [22]. MEG - **Market Data**: EG05 closed at 4729 yuan/ton. The EG5 - 9 spread was 65 yuan/ton, and the EG05 basis was - 57 yuan/ton [23]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to significant production cuts in equipment both at home and abroad. Demand is seasonally recovering, and imports are expected to decrease. The inventory pressure is expected to ease in March - April [24]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions [25]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The methanol market shows a back structure, with weakening basis and spreads [28]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Domestic production is slightly down but still high, and overseas equipment has reduced production. Imports are expected to decline, and the port inventory is decreasing [28][29]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side pressure is relieved, and imports are expected to decline in February - March. Pay attention to the restart time of MTO equipment, and the market is expected to be bullish driven by geopolitical conflicts [30]. Urea - **Market Data**: UR05 closed at 1847 yuan/ton. The UR5 - 9 spread was 39 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle urea basis was 13 yuan/ton [31]. - **Logic**: High production and weak demand, but there are expectations of spring fertilization and export speculation. Under the "export quota" and "supply guarantee and price stability" policies, the market has a ceiling and a floor [32][33]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on high for long positions and pay attention to export policy changes [34]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: SH05 closed at 2523 yuan/ton. The SH05 - 09 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, and the SH05 basis was - 43 yuan/ton [35][36]. - **Logic**: Low - concentration caustic soda lags in price increases, and the basis is weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased the expectation of production cuts in ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated equipment. The domestic overall load remains high, and the industry can consider reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The market cooled down today, but the futures price is still at a premium to the spot price. The market has a strong awareness of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. Although the chemical sector is frequently stimulated by the Middle - East situation, the sentiment of urea is relatively stable, and the futures price is mainly based on the return to fundamentals and tends to be stable after a correction [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The futures price of urea opened lower and moved lower today, with an intraday decline of nearly 2%. By the end of the month, national reserve urea will be fully released, and the market supply is abundant. Although the number of temporary shutdowns and overhauls of upstream factories has increased in the past two days, the impact is relatively weak. Downstream demand comes from both agriculture and industry. The terminal sales of compound fertilizers are smooth. Although the operating rate is gradually rising, the finished - product inventory is still being depleted. The wheat top - dressing in the agricultural demand is basically over, but subsequent crops such as spring corn still require a large amount of high - nitrogen compound fertilizers. Although the rising raw material prices have squeezed the factory profits, the high demand still corresponds to high supply. After the sharp jump in urea prices, downstream buyers follow the "buy - on - rising" mentality, and the terminal sales are smooth. The inventory of upstream factories has been continuously depleted. Driven by downstream demand digestion and previous exports, the inventory shows a relatively loose situation compared with last year, without obvious inventory accumulation pressure, which is an important reason to support the strong market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1897 yuan/ton, opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 2%, and finally closed at 1878 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.73%. The trading volume was 244,735 lots (-4,869 lots). Among the top 20 main positions in the main contract, long positions decreased by 2,584 lots, and short positions decreased by 4,218 lots. Huishang Futures had a net long position of +836 lots, Huatai Futures had a net long position of +676 lots; Galaxy Futures had a net short position of +2,276 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of -2,234 lots [2] - **Spot**: The current spot price still follows the maximum execution price. The ex - factory price range of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong and Henan is 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot price in the market declined today, and the futures closing price also declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the May contract was -22 yuan/ton (+8 yuan/ton) [7] - **Supply Data**: According to Feiyitong data, on March 17, 2026, the daily national urea output was 218,800 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 87.7% [8] Other Data - On March 17, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,055, the same as the previous trading day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea futures are greatly affected by the overall chemical futures. In the current environment, the urea futures have shown significant fluctuations. The fundamentals of the domestic urea market are in a situation of strong supply and demand, but the sustainability of demand is not strong, and the policy shows a clear signal of stabilizing prices. It is expected that the upward driving force of urea futures in the later stage will mostly come from the influence of other chemical products, and the fundamentals and policy of urea itself do not support the urea futures to remain at the current level for a long time [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The weekly average daily output of urea has been relatively stable, with some fluctuations due to enterprise shutdowns and restarts. For example, in the week of March 6 - 12, 2026, 3 new enterprises stopped production, and 2 stopped enterprises resumed production. The estimated weekly average daily output was 21.97 tons. In the following weeks, the output was 21.86 tons, 21.71 tons, and 21.71 tons respectively. There are also enterprises planning for maintenance and resuming production [5]. - **Demand**: - **Agricultural demand**: The demand for wheat fertilizer has started. - **Compound fertilizer**: The capacity utilization rate in this cycle is 45.56%, an increase of 8.54 percentage points compared with the previous cycle. Different regions have different situations. For example, in Hebei, due to environmental protection and relevant regulations, production is restricted significantly, while in Shandong and Henan, the impact is relatively small, and the operating rates of major enterprises continue to increase. In Hubei, with the increase in sales volume, the operating rates of large - scale enterprises increase, and those of small and medium - sized enterprises are relatively stable. In the next cycle, the resumption of production or increase in load of Hebei enterprises is expected to increase the operating rate. - **Thermal power desulfurization and denitrification**: The cumulative power generation from January to December 2025 was 6294.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year cumulative decline of 1%. With the rise in temperature, the consumption of urea for thermal power denitrification is expected to decline [5]. - **Inventory**: On March 11, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,600 tons, a decrease of 140,500 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 12.79%. Recently, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market trading sentiment has been driven, the downstream receiving enthusiasm has increased again, and the inventory of urea enterprises in most regions has decreased to varying degrees [5]. - **Valuation**: - **Production cost**: The cost of the new coal - gasification process in Henan urea factories is 1400 yuan. With the resumption of work in domestic coal mines and the warming of the weather, coal consumption has declined, and coal prices have been under pressure to decline. - **Production profit**: The profit of the new coal - gasification process in Henan urea factories is 410 yuan, and the profit is currently at a reasonable level. In a balanced supply - demand environment, the profit is expected to remain stable [5]. - **Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Treat the UR2605 contract with a wide - range oscillation idea. - **Arbitrage**: No clear strategy is provided for the UR2605 - UR2609 spread. - **Options**: No clear strategy is provided for the UR2605 options. The urea futures are affected by the price fluctuations of other chemical futures. Although the current fundamentals of supply and demand are at their peak, the sustainability of demand is not strong, and the policy shows a clear signal of stabilizing prices [5]. 3.2 Price - **Domestic urea spot price**: The report presents the historical price trends of urea in Henan, Sichuan, Shanxi large - particle, and Shanxi small - particle from 2022 to 2026 [8]. - **International urea price and spread**: It shows the historical trends of small - particle urea (Shandong factory port - collection profit), small - particle urea (Middle East - Shandong factory port - collection cost), FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East from 2022 to 2026 [10]. - **Phosphate and potash fertilizer prices**: It shows the historical price trends of Hubei monoammonium phosphate, Hubei diammonium phosphate, and Shandong 60% powdered potassium chloride from 2022 to 2026 [12]. - **Urea futures price, basis, and inter - month spread**: It shows the historical trends of the closing price of the urea futures 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread, and the basis of the 05 contract from 2021 - 2022 to 2025 - 2026 [14]. 3.3 Supply - **Urea production**: It shows the historical trends of China's weekly average daily urea production, weekly average daily production of natural - gas - based urea, and weekly average daily production of coal - based urea from 2022 to 2026 [18]. - **Urea cost and profit**: It shows the historical trends of the prices of anthracite medium - sized lumps, bituminous coal, the marginal profit of the Shanxi fixed - bed process, and the marginal profit of the new Henan urea process from 2022 to 2026 [21]. - **Urea inventory and apparent consumption**: It shows the historical trends of urea enterprise inventory, urea port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption of urea, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption of urea from 2022 to 2026 [24]. 3.4 Demand - **Compound fertilizer industry**: It shows the historical trends of the operating rate and inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises from 2022 to 2026 [28]. - **Melamine industry**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly production, price, and melamine/urea price ratio of melamine from 2022 to 2026 [30]. - **Export**: It shows the historical trends of China's monthly urea export volume and monthly cumulative export volume from 2021 to 2025 [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices were firm and volatile on Thursday, with the main 05 contract closing at 1,875 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. The spot market was mostly stable, with prices in some regions slightly up. The supply was high and overall sufficient, and the demand was positive but showed regional differences. The futures price was short - term bullish due to external factors, but the upside was limited, and over - bullish views were not recommended [1] - Soda ash futures prices were bullish on Thursday, with the main 05 contract closing at 1,256 yuan/ton, up 1.05%. The spot price was mostly stable, and the supply and demand changed little. The futures price was short - term firm due to global situation disturbances, but the upside was limited [1] - Glass futures prices were bullish and volatile on Thursday, with the main 05 contract closing at 1,113 yuan/ton, up 1.83%. The spot market was bullish. The supply was stable, and the spot sales rate was high. The futures price would remain bullish in the short - term, but the volatility would increase [1] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Urea**: The futures price was firm and volatile. The supply was at a high level with daily output of 21.78 tons, down 0.04 tons. The demand was positive but regionally different. The futures was short - term bullish due to external factors, but the upside was limited [1] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was bullish, first rising then falling. The supply and demand changed little, and the cost support was strengthened. The futures was short - term firm but the upside was limited [1] - **Glass**: The futures price was bullish and volatile. The supply was stable, and the spot sales rate was high. The futures would remain bullish in the short - term, but the volatility would increase [1] Market Information - **Urea**: On March 12, the futures warehouse receipts were 6,380, up 947; the daily output was 21.78 tons, down 0.04 tons from the previous day and up 2.61 tons from the same period last year; the industry operating rate was 92.46%, up 7.26 percentage points from the same period last year. Some regional spot prices were stable, and some increased. The enterprise inventory on March 11 was 95.76 tons, down 14.05 tons week - on - week [4][5][6] - **Soda Ash & Glass**: On March 12, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,497, with 879 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 770, down 5. The soda ash output in the week ending March 12 was 80.92 tons, up 0.22 tons week - on - week; the industry capacity utilization rate was 87%, up 0.23 percentage points. The soda ash factory inventory on March 12 was 193.17 tons, up 0.90 tons from Monday and down 1.55 tons from last Thursday. The floating glass market average price on March 12 was 1,157 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton day - on - day; the daily output was 14.69 tons, unchanged day - on - day. The floating glass enterprise inventory on March 12 was 7,584.9 million weight boxes, down 378.8 million weight boxes week - on - week [8][9] Chart Analysis - The content includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume and open interest, and price spread of urea and soda ash futures, and the price trend charts of urea and soda ash spot, as well as the price spread charts of urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [11][13][15][19][20][22] Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the research director focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices rebounded from high levels today, with the futures market opening low and closing high. The spot price remained stable, and the market was affected by factors such as national reserve release, downstream demand, and international market changes. The upstream factory inventory decreased significantly, and the market sentiment was high. However, the upside space was limited, and attention should be paid to the post - peak season export policy and downstream agricultural demand carrying capacity [1] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Urea opened low and closed high today, with the spot price remaining stable. The national reserve is being released, and the market has relatively sufficient available goods. Temporary maintenance does not significantly affect production. The daily output is 220,000 tons. Downstream demand is strong, and the international market price increase has stimulated domestic demand. The upstream factory inventory decreased by 12.79%. The nitrogen association meeting proposed to ensure supply and stabilize prices for spring plowing, and there is a chance to gradually liberalize exports after spring plowing [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1,840 yuan/ton, closed at 1,872 yuan/ton, up 1.35%. The trading volume was 229,705 lots, an increase of 15,308 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 8,554 lots, and short positions increased by 8,349 lots. Some futures companies had net long or net short positions. On March 11, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,433, an increase of 98 from the previous trading day [2] Spot - Manufacturers still maintained the maximum guiding price, and the spot price remained stable. The ex - factory price of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan ranged from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both increased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [7] Supply - On March 11, 2026, the national daily urea output was 221,900 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 88.94% [9] Enterprise Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 817,200 tons, a decrease of 248,400 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 23.31%. The pre - sale order days were 8.06 days, an increase of 0.35 days from the previous period, an increase of 4.54% [11]