Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Phosphate Industry Industry Overview - The phosphate industry in China is primarily concentrated in Hubei, Yunnan, and Guizhou, with Hubei accounting for approximately 50 million tons of production, representing a significant portion of the total output [1][2] - The industry has faced increasing mining costs due to a decline in the quality of domestic phosphate rock, with costs rising by 15% to 20% [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Environmental Policies**: Stricter environmental regulations have limited the production capacity of small to medium-sized phosphate mines, extending the approval time for mining licenses and increasing financial pressure on companies [1][3] - **Import and Export Trends**: Since 2018, China has become a net importer of phosphate rock, with imports significantly increasing in 2024 while exports have decreased by nearly 70% [1][4] - **Phosphate Fertilizer Demand**: The phosphate fertilizer sector is the largest consumer of phosphate rock, accounting for about 75% of total demand. The demand for lithium iron phosphate in the new energy sector indirectly increases the need for phosphoric acid, although the direct usage remains low [1][5] - **Future Capacity Additions**: New phosphate rock production capacity is expected to be added mainly in 2025 and 2026, with projections of 15 million tons and 12 million tons respectively. However, actual demand may not meet this supply [1][6] Additional Important Content - **Cost Structure and Profitability**: The profitability of the phosphate fertilizer industry is heavily reliant on the prices of raw materials like phosphate rock and sulfuric acid, with an estimated industry profit margin of around 7% in 2024 [1][11] - **Energy Efficiency Standards**: By 2026, phosphate fertilizer production companies are required to meet specific energy efficiency benchmarks, which may lead to the elimination of some outdated production capacities [1][12] - **Impact of Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The growth in demand for lithium iron phosphate is expected to drive the need for phosphoric acid, but its overall impact on the total demand for phosphate rock is minimal [1][13] - **Market Price Trends**: Current market prices are high, ranging from 800 to 1,000 yuan per ton, influenced by tight supply conditions. Future price trends may see a decline due to cyclical market behaviors [1][8][14] - **Export Dynamics**: The export of phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain stable in 2025, with production anticipated to exceed 18 million tons, driven by increased demand in the new energy sector [1][20] Conclusion The phosphate industry in China is navigating a complex landscape shaped by environmental regulations, shifting demand dynamics, and market pressures. The interplay between domestic production capabilities and import needs will continue to influence pricing and profitability in the coming years.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer industry in China, focusing on market dynamics, production challenges, and future outlooks [1][2][3]. Key Points on Nitrogen Fertilizer (Urea) - The domestic urea market faces challenges such as overcapacity, high proportion of outdated production capacity, significant cost differences, and export volume impacting pricing. However, increased export quotas may help mitigate losses from supply stability [1][6]. - Coal price fluctuations in the first half of the year reduced costs for some coal chemical products, altering the cost curve between gas-based and oil-based urea, with gas-based urea showing price resilience [1][8]. - The government has set demands for single nutrient fertilizers to not increase or even decrease, but food security strategies and policies supporting land restoration are expected to sustain fertilizer demand. The per-acre fertilizer application in China is nearing levels seen in developed countries, indicating overall demand growth [1][10]. - The urea supply pressure is slightly better than initial expectations for the year, with an estimated release of about 2 million tons in the first half and an additional 1-2 million tons expected in the second half [10]. Key Points on Phosphate Fertilizer - The phosphate market is under pressure from rising raw material prices and domestic supply stabilization requirements. The first quarter saw low export volumes due to delayed export quotas, but limited new capacity and high overseas phosphate prices are expected to improve company performance in the third quarter [1][11]. - Phosphate rock pricing is crucial for the profitability of integrated phosphate fertilizer companies, with expectations for high prices to persist throughout the year, allowing for strong profit margins [1][14]. - The phosphate industry is experiencing tight supply-demand conditions, influenced by high raw material prices and concentrated procurement demands from exporting countries. This has led to a relative shortage in overseas phosphate supply, supporting phosphate prices [1][13]. Challenges and Opportunities - The nitrogen fertilizer industry faces four main challenges: overcapacity, a significant proportion of outdated production capacity, notable differences in profitability across production methods, and the impact of export volumes on domestic demand and pricing [6]. - The phosphate industry is also grappling with challenges such as high raw material prices and the need for domestic supply stabilization, but there are opportunities for improved performance due to concentrated export activities in the third quarter [11][12]. Future Outlook - The outlook for nitrogen fertilizer remains cautiously optimistic despite potential price fluctuations, while the phosphate fertilizer environment appears stable with a positive trend in performance [3][16]. - The overall market environment for both nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain favorable, with no significant new capacity pressures or disruptions to market order anticipated [16].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **soda ash** and **urea** markets, focusing on their current status and future outlooks [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Soda Ash Market - The soda ash industry is currently influenced by macroeconomic policies rather than strict capacity reduction or technological upgrades, as there are no expectations for mandatory upgrades or elimination of outdated capacities [1][4]. - New capacity in the soda ash sector continues to be released, particularly from natural soda ash projects, with significant expansions expected in regions like Alashan and Jinshan [1][6][8]. - In the first half of 2025, soda ash supply remains high, with an average operating rate of approximately 85%, a slight year-on-year decrease, but actual production levels are stable compared to the previous year [9]. - The glass industry, particularly photovoltaic glass, has seen a significant reduction in production due to internal competition policies, leading to a notable decline in soda ash demand [1][12]. - Light soda ash demand from downstream industries such as monosodium glutamate and lithium salts has increased by about 10% year-on-year, providing some support for light soda ash demand [1][13]. Urea Market - The urea market is constrained by supply and price stabilization policies, with price fluctuations limited. New production capacities have increased supply, with daily production levels rising to nearly 200,000 tons [3][16]. - Urea exports face challenges due to port inspection capabilities and logistics, with historical data showing limited exports exceeding one million tons [20][23]. - The overall urea production capacity is projected to exceed 8 million tons by the end of 2025, with only about 10% classified as outdated capacity [17]. - The demand for urea has been growing, driven by high-value crops and environmental regulations, with a year-on-year increase in apparent consumption of about 9% in early 2025 [19]. Additional Important Insights - The soda ash market is currently experiencing high inventory levels, with production-side inventories reaching historical highs, which negatively impacts the futures market [11]. - The urea market is expected to face downward pressure in the second half of 2025 due to various factors, including international political dynamics and energy price fluctuations [27]. - The export quota system for urea is creating challenges for companies, as only those meeting storage requirements can obtain export quotas, leading to potential delays and increased costs [29]. - The price difference between domestic and international urea markets remains significant, influencing export behaviors and market dynamics [30][31]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the soda ash and urea markets.

Summary of Conference Call on Potash Market Industry Overview - The potash market is experiencing upward price trends due to domestic production declines and maintenance impacts, despite government policies aimed at stabilizing supply and prices [2][4] - The global potash market is dominated by a few major suppliers, with stable overseas supply and high pricing central tendency, limiting downward pressure in the short term [2][6] - Domestic potash supply is heavily reliant on imports, with approximately 60% dependence, indicating weaker domestic supply stability compared to nitrogen and phosphorus [2][7] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Trends**: Since June 2023, potash prices have rebounded after an initial decline, primarily due to reduced domestic production and maintenance activities leading to supply shortages [4][5] - **Government Policies**: The government's supply stabilization policies have significantly impacted the potash market by accelerating production post-maintenance and encouraging major traders to stabilize prices [5][9] - **Global Supply Dynamics**: Major global suppliers include Russia, Belarus, Canada, and China, with a stable supply situation since Q4 2022. New supply from Southeast Asia and Canada is expected but will take time to materialize [6][8] - **Future Supply Outlook**: New supply from Southeast Asia and Canada is anticipated over the next two years, but the release cycle is long, limiting immediate market impact [8][9] - **Price Pressure**: The price pressure in the potash market is expected to remain manageable, with global pricing conditions favorable and no significant downward trends anticipated [9][10] Additional Important Insights - **Domestic Supply Challenges**: Domestic potash supply has decreased by approximately 500,000 tons this year, with port inventories at low levels, restricting the ability to smooth market supply through inventory [10][11] - **Performance of Major Suppliers**: Salt Lake Co., a key domestic supplier, is expected to increase supply post-maintenance, while other suppliers like Yamei and Dongfang Tieta are showing stable performance and cost control, indicating a positive outlook for the potash industry [3][12][13] - **Market Demand**: The demand for potash remains strong, particularly for autumn fertilization, supported by the essential role of potash in fruit growth and yield enhancement [5][11]

Core Viewpoint - The company held a performance briefing for the fiscal year 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, discussing operational results and financial metrics with investors, while addressing key concerns regarding fertilizer export policies, resource supply, and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Fertilizer Export Policies and Market Conditions - The company actively supports national fertilizer supply and price stabilization policies, ensuring domestic demand is met while maintaining stable phosphate prices, with over 2.3 million tons of diammonium phosphate supplied domestically for the winter-spring season, accounting for approximately 30% of domestic agricultural needs [2][3]. - The international phosphate market remains favorable, with higher prices compared to domestic levels, and the company is balancing domestic and international market demands to enhance overall profitability [2][3]. Group 2: Phosphate Resource Supply and Production Capacity - The company has sufficient phosphate mining resources to meet its production needs, reducing external sales while investing in flotation processing technology to enhance resource utilization [3][4]. - New projects, including a 2 million tons/year mining project and a 4.5 million tons/year flotation project, are underway to strengthen the phosphate supply chain and improve production efficiency [3][4]. Group 3: Sulfur Price Impact and Response - Sulfur prices have significantly increased compared to the previous year, impacting production costs for phosphate fertilizers; however, the company has implemented strategic inventory management and long-term contracts to mitigate these effects [5][6]. - The company maintains a competitive advantage in sulfur procurement, with current inventory costs significantly lower than market prices [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Structure and Performance - The company has optimized its financial structure, reducing interest-bearing liabilities to approximately 16 billion yuan, a decrease of over 3.8 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, with an asset-liability ratio of 52.26% [10]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is expected to decline compared to 2024 due to a strategic reduction in soybean trading activities, aimed at improving overall financial metrics [10]. Group 5: Dividend Policy and Market Value Management - The company has committed to a cash dividend ratio of no less than 45% of net profit for the years 2024 to 2026, with a proposed dividend of 1.4 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 2.552 billion yuan [10]. - A new market value management system has been established, incorporating market performance into managerial evaluations to enhance investor communication and maintain high dividend levels [11]. Group 6: Product Sales and Future Growth - In the first quarter, the company reported significant sales growth across its main products, with ammonium phosphate up 7.6%, compound fertilizers up 23.8%, and urea up 22.9%, attributed to effective market management and production strategies [12][14]. - Future growth will be driven by maintaining high production efficiency, optimizing procurement, and expanding into high-value fertilizers and fine phosphate chemicals [14][16]. Group 7: Industry Outlook - The phosphate fertilizer market is expected to remain in a tight balance, with increasing demand driven by global population growth and domestic food security strategies [16]. - The industry is characterized by limited new capacity additions and stringent environmental regulations, which are likely to sustain high market prices and profitability for established producers [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Alumina, Aluminium, Tin, PTA, Short - fiber [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Manganese Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand, Crude Oil [1] - **Oscillating**: Equity Index, Gold, Copper, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silicon Iron, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Printing, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Cotton, Bean Meal, Pulp, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The results of the Sino - US trade talks exceeded market expectations, which improved market risk appetite and had a positive impact on multiple varieties, but short - term operations still need to be cautious [1]. - The weak economy and asset shortage are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, while silver may be more resilient in the short term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Equity Index**: Yesterday, large - cap stocks led the rise. Observe whether small and medium - cap stocks can achieve resonance and make up for the rise. In a structural market, long - position investors should be cautious [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The short - term gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - **Silver**: Generally follows gold. Unexpected tariff results will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term silver price may be more resilient than gold [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The joint statement of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, which is positive for copper prices. However, the copper price has rebounded significantly recently, so be cautious about chasing high in the short term [1]. - **Aluminium and Alumina**: Aluminium prices continue to rebound. Alumina supply has increased, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the short - term price may further rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and the inflow of imported goods has weakened the fundamentals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The US inflation cooled more than expected, and the Sino - US talks results exceeded expectations. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and there are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines. Nickel prices will oscillate in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel. Stainless steel futures will oscillate and rebound in the short term, but there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, tin prices are expected to rebound. Continuously pay attention to the resumption of production in low - grade mines [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered a low - valuation range, and the demand and inventory pressure have not been alleviated [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low due to the futures discounting the spot [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream buyers still maintain rigid demand purchases [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in the window period of switching from the peak season to the off - season. The cost is loose, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the driving force for price rebound is insufficient [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that pig iron production will peak, and pay attention to the pressure on steel products [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: There is still an expectation of decline due to the expected excess of manganese ore, and the pressure of warehouse receipts is heavy [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand has become tight [1]. - **Printing**: The supply - demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price will continue to be weak [1]. - **Soda Ash**: There are many maintenance operations in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is excess supply in the medium term, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand is relatively excessive, and they are short - allocated in the sector. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 positive spread [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: The rise of crude oil and US biodiesel news drove the rise of palm oil. The Sino - US talks may drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. After the crude oil price falls, consider short - selling palm oil. The Sino - US talks are expected to be negative for soybean oil in terms of sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit. The Sino - Canadian relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it may lead to a large decline. Consider buying volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainty is still strong. The domestic cotton textile industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak oscillating trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the import corn auction has a negative impact on sentiment. The port inventory has decreased but is still at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the CO7 - C01 positive spread [1]. - **Bean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market is still digesting the pressure of spot and Brazilian selling, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiations on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand**: The shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased, the terminal demand is still weak, and the overall bearish pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to short after a rebound [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The pig inventory is continuously recovering, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the pace of future production capacity release and wait for spot price guidance [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil**: The results of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. There is a demand for rebound and repair after the previous sharp decline [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is dragging down, the inventory accumulation slope has decreased, and the demand is slowly recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The tariff negotiation is beneficial, and the cost is strongly supported. It will be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of price decline in the long term due to loose fundamentals and weak demand [1]. - **PTA**: The PX device is under intensive maintenance, the procurement demand for PX has increased, and the high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol device is under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, the basis has dropped rapidly, and market sentiment has subsided [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The slightly tight situation of PTA strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high - basis situation [1]. - **Styrene**: The improvement of Sino - US tariff policies has stimulated market speculative demand, the pure benzene price has gradually strengthened, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1]. - **Urea**: There are still positive expectations in the market, the downstream follow - up is okay, and the market negotiation focus has risen. However, due to price stability policies, the upward price space is limited [1]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strengthening, and the short - term price will oscillate strongly. The medium - long - term spot market may change from strong to weak oscillation [1]. - **PE, PP, PVC**: Macro - factors are positive, and they will oscillate strongly. PVC has a weak fundamental but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, but the macro - positive factors support the futures price, which will oscillate [1]. - **Propane and Butane**: The CP has decreased, the MB has increased, and the regional price difference of propane has narrowed. Butane is in the seasonal off - season [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

保供稳价基调，盘面高位震荡 【冠通研究】 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1895 元/吨高开低走，日内收涨，最终收于 1897 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅 0.32%，持仓量 275098 手（+8127 手）。前 二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+7146 手，空头+1017 手。其中，东证期货净多 单增加 2647 手、国泰君安净多单增加 1893 手；民生期货净空单增加 1982 手； 海证期货净空单减少 1046 手。 【策略分析】 尿素今日高开日内偏强运行。上游工厂上涨趋势放缓，仍然有惜售意向，出 现控制接单限单情况。由于出口政策以国内保供稳价为基调，且政策尚未明朗， 价格涨幅空间有限。基本面情况相对稳定，供应端，开工率稳定，上游工厂本周 暂无停车计划，有两家企业有复产情况。需求端，农业备肥偏谨慎，复合肥工厂 方面，成本原料价格上涨背景下，工厂借势让利降库，利润遭挤压且夏季肥处于 扫尾阶段，开工率逐渐将下滑。东北地区本周尿素入库量环比增加，玉米水稻追 肥需求有提升，但预计持续时间不长。本周库存转为去化，除上周供应小幅下降 外，需求情况表现为有所增加，对盘面提供支撑力度。整体来说，夏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that urea exports are basically confirmed, and ensuring supply and stabilizing prices remain the focus of the domestic market. The urea futures market is mainly driven by export expectations. The domestic policy aims to maintain supply and price stability, and if there are price fluctuations, the government will intervene. This is unfavorable for urea futures bulls, and it is expected that urea futures will reflect the policy intention [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea and Related Product Prices - **Domestic Urea Spot Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of urea in different regions of China, including Henan, Shanxi (small and large particles), and Sichuan from 2021 to 2025 [8][9]. - **International Urea Prices and Spreads**: It shows historical price trends of small - particle urea FOB prices in China and the Middle East, as well as the profit of Shandong factories for port collection and the spread between the Middle East and Shandong factory port collection costs from 2021 to 2025 [11][12]. - **Unit Nitrogen Element Prices and Spreads**: The report provides historical price trends of synthetic ammonia in Hubei, ammonium chloride in Henan, and the spreads between liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride from 2021 to 2025 [14][15]. - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: It shows historical price trends of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, 60% potassium fertilizer, and 62% port potassium fertilizer in Hubei from 2021 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Urea Futures Basis and Inter - month Spreads**: The report presents historical price trends of the urea futures 09 contract, its basis, and the 9 - 1 spread from 2021 to 2025 [20][21]. 3.2 Urea Supply - **Domestic Urea Production**: The weekly average daily production of urea has been increasing, reaching 20.43 tons in the week of May 22 - 28, 2025. There were changes in the number of parking and resuming enterprises, and 5 enterprises were planned to be under maintenance and 1 was expected to resume production in the current week. The report also shows historical data on the weekly average daily production, cumulative production, and production by raw material (natural gas and coal) from 2021 to 2025 [5][25][26]. - **Coal Prices and Urea Profits**: The price of anthracite is stable, and the fixed - bed process production cost in Shanxi is 1480 yuan/ton. The profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi is 410 yuan/ton, and it is expected that prices will remain stable [5][28][29]. - **Urea Factory Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.56 tons, a decrease of 12.61 tons (- 10.58%) compared to the previous period. The report also shows historical data on enterprise inventory, apparent consumption, order volume, and domestic apparent consumption from 2021 to 2025 [5][31][32]. 3.3 Urea Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.90%, a decrease of 2.7% compared to the previous period, and it is expected to increase steadily. The report also shows historical data on the compound fertilizer enterprise's start - up rate, inventory, import, export, and net export from 2021 to 2025 [5][36][37]. - **Compound Fertilizer Upstream**: For phosphate fertilizers, it shows historical data on the weekly production, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate from 2021 to 2025. For potassium fertilizers, it shows historical data on the domestic start - up rate, port inventory, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume from 2021 to 2025 [38][39][42]. - **Melamine**: The report shows historical data on the weekly production, price, ratio to urea, and domestic net retention volume of melamine from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Urea Export**: The report shows historical data on the monthly and cumulative export volume of urea from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. 3.4 Urea Inventory The report shows historical data on urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, the sum of enterprise and port inventory, and urea warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [49][50].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年05月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：偏强运行 ➢ 国际现货：中国散装小颗粒离岸价355.01-360.01美元/吨，上调97美元/吨；黑海小颗粒港口离岸价350.01-360.01美元/吨，下调3-5美元/吨；波 罗的海小颗粒港口离岸价345.01-355.01美元/吨，下调3-5美元/吨；中东小颗粒港口离岸370.01-385.01美元/吨，下调10-20美元/吨；巴西小颗粒 CFR价格370.01-380.01美元/吨，下调20美元/吨；印度到岸价385.01-398.25美元/吨，较上周持平。预计后续国内期货市场及现货市场交易逻辑逐 渐与国际基本面接轨。 ➢ 国内现货：本周尿素工厂出厂价在《保供稳价》政策管控下稳定运行。尿素贸易商报价小幅探涨，预计后续仍呈现缓慢上涨格局。 ➢ 基本面：截至2025年5月7日，中国尿素企业总库存量106.56万吨，较上周减少12.61万吨，环比 ...