Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the methanol and urea markets, focusing on their price trends, supply-demand dynamics, and implications for coal consumption [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Methanol Market - Methanol imports are expected to drop significantly due to geopolitical conflicts, with April arrivals projected at 450,000 to 500,000 tons, down from 880,000 tons in February [1][4]. - The price of methanol has seen a substantial increase, with the MA2601 contract rising from 1,988 CNY/ton to 3,300 CNY/ton, a gain of over 60% since October 2025 [2]. - The increase in methanol prices is attributed to supply tightness from Iranian sources and strong downstream MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) profits, which are expected to be compressed [2][3]. - Current methanol production profit margins are high, estimated at 600 to 700 CNY/ton, with daily production exceeding 290,000 tons [7][8]. Urea Market - Urea prices have risen from approximately 1,660 CNY/ton to a peak of 1,950 CNY/ton, driven by strong demand during the spring farming season [2][3]. - The urea market is expected to face policy pressures, with a price cap of 1,840 CNY/ton limiting the upside potential for the 05 contract, which is expected to trade between 1,920 and 1,930 CNY/ton [3][7]. - Urea production is projected to increase, with daily output expected to rise to 220,000 tons in April due to the resumption of several production facilities [8]. Coal Demand Implications - The combined contribution of methanol and urea to coal consumption is expected to exceed 15 million tons by 2026, driven by increased production and demand [1][8]. - Methanol production consumes approximately 2.1 tons of coal per ton produced, while urea production consumes about 1 ton of coal per ton produced [8][9]. - The coal demand from methanol is projected to increase by over 1 million tons due to a 4.8% increase in methanol supply, while urea is expected to contribute an additional 500,000 to 600,000 tons of coal demand [8][9]. Additional Important Insights - The geopolitical situation, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, poses risks to methanol supply and pricing dynamics [2][5]. - The urea market is expected to see potential export policy changes in the third quarter of 2026, with a low probability of export policy relaxation in the first half of the year [11][12]. - Seasonal patterns in coal inventory replenishment have become less pronounced due to stable coal supply policies, affecting procurement behaviors in the methanol and urea sectors [9][10]. Conclusion - The methanol and urea markets are currently characterized by high profitability and significant price volatility driven by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand. The implications for coal consumption are substantial, with expected increases in demand as production ramps up in response to market conditions.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (March 12 - 18, 2026), China's urea production output was 1.5194 million tons, a decrease of 18,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18%. Next week, China's weekly urea output is expected to be around 1.46 - 1.47 million tons, a significant decrease from this period. The production is expected to continue to decline in the next cycle [2]. - In terms of domestic demand, in the short term, the agricultural spring plowing demand in the central and northeastern regions will gradually start in late March, and the overall domestic demand will support the price. In terms of exports, exports currently have a small impact on the urea market [2]. - As of March 18, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a decrease of 148,700 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 15.53%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this week. Affected by multiple factors, the market trading atmosphere was good, and the overall shipment of urea factories was smooth, with tight supply in some factories. Next week, the total inventory of domestic urea sample enterprises is expected to be around 760,000 tons, a slight decrease from this cycle [2]. - As of March 19, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 167,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 11.64%. The urea port inventory decreased this week, mainly due to the departure of some large - granular urea from Yantai Port and the limited port collection of most manufacturers in the current spring plowing market [2]. - Overall, as the spring plowing demand gradually starts, the pick - up at northern factories has gradually improved, and urea is expected to continue to show a de - stocking pattern in the short term. In the short term, the short - term geopolitical conflict brings a valuation premium to energy and chemical products. Urea is expected to fluctuate with support. The support mainly comes from the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the Spring Festival and the process of gradually realizing this strong expectation. However, on the other hand, the guiding price of urea policy for spot goods has not been raised from April to June, so the policy pressure is gradually increasing, and the upward space of the unilateral price is suppressed. In terms of valuation, for the 05 contract, the upper pressure level is around 1,950 yuan/ton, mainly due to spot policy pressure and the valuation premium brought by geopolitics. The fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,780 - 1,800 yuan/ton due to the strong expectation of the agricultural demand peak season in 2026 [2]. - Unilateral strategy: Wide - range fluctuations within the valuation range. The upper pressure on 05 is 1,940 - 1,950 yuan/ton (policy pressure), and the static support on 05 is 1,800 - 1,810 yuan/ton (spot support). Inter - period strategy: The spread between months fluctuates. Cross - variety strategy: None [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts related to urea valuation, including urea basis (Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), urea monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and urea warehouse receipts. It also shows domestic and international spot price trends of urea [5][9][15][18]. 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025, it was 6.64 million tons. In 2026, the expected new production capacity is 6.51 million tons [22]. 3.2.2 Output - The production profit is at the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report provides charts of China's daily urea output, capacity utilization rate, coal - based urea output, and gas - based urea output [23][24]. 3.2.3 Cost - The raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. The report provides cost calculations for fixed - bed factories in Shanxi and shows the complete cost trends of urea in different production processes (air - flow bed, fixed - bed, natural gas) [26][27][28]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the cash - flow profit of urea fixed - bed devices and the production profit of urea in different production processes [31][32][34]. 3.2.5 Net Import (Export) - During the spring plowing period, export policies are tightened. The report provides monthly and annual export data of urea from 2018 to 2025 (E) and charts of small - granular mainstream export profit and monthly export volume [38][39][40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. Different regions have different fertilizer demands for various crops at different times of the year. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn [44][45][47]. 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the production cost, production profit, factory inventory, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers [51][52][53]. - **Melamine**: The report presents the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [54][55][56]. - **Real Estate**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The report provides data on the export volume of wood products and real estate construction and completion areas [57][58][59]. 3.4 Inventory - The upstream de - stocking pattern continues. The report shows the trends of domestic urea factory inventory and port inventory [64][65][66]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the price trends of international urea, including FOB prices of Chinese large - granular urea, Baltic large - granular urea, Middle - East large - granular urea, and CFR price of Brazilian large - granular urea [69][70][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The high supply, low inventory, and high - demand expectations determine the main logic of a slightly upward - trending oscillation for urea in March. However, the guiding price for supply - guarantee and price - stability and subsequent state reserve releases will limit the upside potential. The market mainly focuses on domestic supply and demand, and the probability of export liberalization during the spring plowing season is low [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea opened higher and closed lower on March 2, 2026, with a decline during the day. The guiding price in March is higher than that in February, and the spot price has increased. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1800 - 1840 yuan/ton, up 20 - 30 yuan/ton from last Friday [1][6]. - As of February 25, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data is 218,000 tons, and the daily production has been above 200,000 tons within the month. There are no long - term shutdown and maintenance plans in the short term, and some gas - based plants are resuming production. After the Lantern Festival, downstream industries start to resume production, and the wheat green - turning top - dressing may be advanced due to snow and rain in North China, which will drive inventory reduction. The current inventory level is much lower than that after the Spring Festival last year, supporting the urea price [1]. - March is the peak season for agricultural demand, and the preparation for wheat green - turning top - dressing has begun. The snow and rain recently have advanced the agricultural demand. The operating load of compound fertilizer plants dropped sharply in mid - February due to the Spring Festival holiday and is expected to gradually resume production after the Lantern Festival. As the Chinese New Year was late this year, the current operating load is lower than the same period last year. The spring fertilizer has not been shipped in a centralized manner, and the finished product inventory in the factory is high. During the high - nitrogen compound fertilizer demand period, urea is expected to be strongly supported [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures - The main urea contract 2605 opened at 1860 yuan/ton, opened higher and closed lower, and finally closed at 1817 yuan/ton, down 1.14%. The trading volume was 262,781 lots, an increase of 2,904 lots. Among the top 20 long and short positions of the main contract, the long positions increased by 2,630 lots, and the short positions increased by 9,081 lots. For example, GF Futures had a net long position of - 325 lots, China Merchants Futures had a net long position of - 638 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net short position of + 5,196 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of + 3,898 lots [2][3]. - On February 27, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2.2. Spot - The guiding price in March is higher than that in February, and the spot price has increased. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1800 - 1840 yuan/ton, up 20 - 30 yuan/ton from last Friday [1][6]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1. Basis - The mainstream spot market price increased, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was 43 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3.2. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 2, 2026, the national daily urea production was 216,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.77% [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to run strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is narrowing. The support comes from the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the Spring Festival and the gradual realization of this expectation. However, the policy pressure is increasing as the spot guidance price of urea policy has not been raised from April to June, which restricts the upside space of the unilateral price [2]. - The 05 contract has a fundamental pressure level at around 1,930 yuan/ton, mainly due to spot policy pressure and warehouse receipt registration costs. The fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,770 - 1,780 yuan/ton, supported by the strong expectation of agricultural demand in the peak season of 2026 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Production: In the week from February 19 - February 25, 2026, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.5355 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,500 tons or 1.29%. There were no enterprise device shutdowns or restarts during the period. Next week, the weekly output of Chinese urea is expected to be around 1.52 - 1.53 million tons, with little change from this period. In the next cycle, there are no planned device shutdowns, and 1 - 2 shutdown enterprises' devices may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the output is expected to fluctuate slightly [2]. - Capacity: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. The total new capacity in 2024 was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025 it was 6.64 million tons. The expected new capacity in 2026 is 6.51 million tons [22]. - Production Profit and Output: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains high [25]. - Cost: The raw material prices are stabilizing, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is rising. For example, in the Shanxi region, the cash - flow cost and full cost of fixed - bed plants have been relatively stable in recent days [28]. - Profit: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state [33]. - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, the export policy has tightened [41]. Demand - Agricultural Demand: Seasonally, the agricultural demand is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. Different regions have different fertilizer - using seasons based on their main crops [47][50]. - Industrial Demand: - Compound Fertilizer: The capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and inventory of compound fertilizer in China show certain trends. The capacity utilization rate is presented in a weekly chart, and the cost, profit, and inventory also have corresponding data trends [54]. - Melamine: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine in China are provided. The production profit and market price have their own trends, and the output and capacity utilization rate are also shown in relevant charts [59]. - Real Estate and Panels: The demand support from the real estate market for panels is relatively limited, but panel exports are resilient. Data on the export volume of plywood and similar multi - layer boards, wood - oriented particleboard, and real estate construction and completion areas are presented [62]. Inventory - Factory Inventory: On February 25, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.176 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 341,300 tons or 40.89%. The main reason was the reduction of logistics and transportation during the Spring Festival. Next week, the inventory of domestic urea sample enterprises is expected to be around 1.08 million tons, a slight decrease [69]. - Port Inventory: As of February 26, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 174,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons or 4.82%. During the holiday, logistics transportation was restricted, and with the recovery of transportation, some ports had a slight increase in inventory [69]. Valuation - The report provides multiple charts and data on urea basis (including Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices to show the price and spread trends of urea [5][9][14][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - At the end of February, domestic spring plowing will start from south to north, combined with top - dressing of wheat and the gradual resumption of production in industrial downstream, urea will enter the peak demand season, and the post - holiday demand is expected to be good. The downstream urea replenishment rhythm may be faster than in previous years, and compound fertilizer plants' high - nitrogen fertilizer production is gradually starting, increasing the industrial consumption of urea. Urea enterprises are expected to enter a new de - stocking cycle. However, due to the optimistic sentiment before the festival, the center of urea's spot and futures prices has significantly moved up, and the strong performance of the futures has overdrawn part of the post - holiday market. Although the post - holiday agricultural rigid demand release and industrial demand recovery will make the price run stronger, the increase may be limited due to high supply. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1830 - 1880 in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1855 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 33 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 243,654 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 12,245 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 10,732 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 235 lots; the exchange warehouse receipts are 8,235 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,147 lots [3] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei and Henan are 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Jiangsu is 1820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Shandong is 1850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price in Anhui is 1820 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is - 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 405 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 468.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 166,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 834,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 83,800 tons. The urea enterprise's operating rate is 90.59%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.45%; the daily urea output is 213,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons. The urea export volume is 280,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 320,000 tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,289,610 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 271,170 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 36.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.6%; the operating rate of melamine is 60.77%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.82%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 204 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 21 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5,179,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons [3] Industry News - As of February 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 834,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 83,800 tons, or 9.12%. As of February 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 166,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons, or 0.61%. The overall port inventory fluctuated little this week. As the Spring Festival approached, logistics transportation was restricted, and most industry players were on a steady break. Among them, the large - particle supply at Yantai Port increased slightly, and the rest of the ports had limited fluctuations, resulting in a slight increase in the overall port inventory. As of February 12, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1,493,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,900 tons, or 1.63%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 90.59%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%, and the trend continued to rise. During the cycle, one enterprise's device stopped production, and two stopped devices resumed production. At the same time, following the device changes in the previous cycle, the output increased slightly this week [3] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [3]