1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long positions are recommended for holding [1]. - Silver: Caution is advised when chasing higher prices [1]. - Copper: Long positions are recommended for holding, with partial take - profit at high prices [1]. - Zinc: Cautiously bullish, waiting for more macro - guidance [1]. - Lead: Rebound is under pressure [1]. - Tin: Bullish in the short - term [1]. - Aluminum: Rebound in the short - term [1]. - Nickel: Rebound is under pressure [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Rebound, light - position trial long [1]. - Polysilicon: Under pressure, cautious participation [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, long positions are recommended for holding [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical negotiations and global economic conditions support the long - term upward trend of gold. Silver's industrial demand is growing, but short - term participation is difficult. The divergence in the US - Iran negotiations provides support for precious metals. Long - term gold prices are expected to rise, with a long - term target price of $4500 per ounce by JP Morgan and potentially reaching $6000 in extreme scenarios [1][3]. - **Base Metals**: The copper market is expected to be bullish in the short - term as the peak consumption season approaches, but there are risks of a pullback after the macro - sentiment fades. The zinc market has weak supply and demand, and inventory accumulation restricts upward space. The aluminum market has inventory pressure, and short - term rebound is limited. The nickel market has a weak reality in the industry chain, and the rebound is under pressure [1]. - **New Energy Metals**: The lithium carbonate market is bullish in the short - term due to supply shortages and increased demand for replenishment. 3. Summary of Each Variety Gold - **Core View**: Hold long positions. Geopolitical negotiations are inconclusive, and there are uncertainties in the US tariffs and geopolitics. The Japanese government may bring potential turmoil to the capital market, and central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its long - term strategic allocation value [1]. - **Market Data**: SHFE gold is at 1146.48, down 0.40% from the previous value; COMEX gold is at 5202, up 0.34% from the previous value and 3.71% from last week. Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.43 tons to 1097.62 tons [2]. Silver - **Core View**: Be cautious when chasing higher prices. The industrial demand for silver is increasing, but short - term participation is challenging. Pay attention to the risk - reward ratio [1]. - **Market Data**: SHFE silver is at 22572, down 1.98% from the previous value; COMEX silver is at 89, down 1.11% from the previous value and up 13.29% from last week [2]. Copper - **Core View**: Hold long positions, with partial take - profit at high prices. As the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season and the National Two Sessions approach, copper prices are expected to be bullish in the short - term, but beware of a pullback after the macro - sentiment fades. The long - term outlook for copper remains positive [1]. - **Market Data**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract is 102550 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. The total social inventory of copper is 53.17 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons from the previous day [5]. Zinc - **Core View**: Cautiously bullish. The supply and demand of zinc are weak, and inventory accumulation restricts upward space. Pay attention to the post - holiday demand recovery rhythm and wait for more macro - guidance [1]. - **Market Data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract is 24570 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The SMM seven - region social inventory is 21.99 million tons, an increase of 1.02 million tons from the previous day [8]. Aluminum - **Core View**: Rebound in the short - term. The current cost of alumina is low, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased more than expected during the off - season. The start - up of downstream enterprises is gradually recovering [1]. - **Market Data**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract is 23845 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The SMM aluminum ingot social inventory is 115.7 million tons, an increase of 26.5 million tons from the previous day, a 29.71% increase [11]. Nickel - **Core View**: The rebound is under pressure. Indonesia has confirmed a reduction in nickel ore production quotas in 2026. China's high nickel inventory and weak consumption continue, and the downstream stainless - steel inventory continues to accumulate [1]. - **Market Data**: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract is 141040 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from the previous day. The SMM stainless - steel social inventory is 1016100 tons, an increase of 121600 tons from the previous day, a 13.59% increase [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Bullish. The total inventory has been decreasing for 6 consecutive weeks, and production has increased. Zimbabwe's ban on lithium ore exports has exacerbated the short - term supply shortage [1]. - **Market Data**: The price of the main contract LC2605 is 173,660 yuan/ton, up 4.31% from the previous value. The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,531 tons to 102,932 tons [19].