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华宝期货晨报煤焦-20251125
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 03:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent high-level Mongolian coal customs clearance and domestic supply guarantee policies have impacted market sentiment. The weak delivery logic has dragged down near-month contracts, causing the futures price to trade at a discount to the spot price. The price of the main coking coal contract is approaching the lower limit of the oscillation range (1100 - 1300), testing the lower support [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal and Coke Market Conditions - Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke continued to decline in an oscillatory manner, with coking coal leading the decline. The positions of the 01 contract were gradually transferred to the 05 contract. The futures price traded at a discount to the spot price, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near-month prices. The spot market was generally weak and stable, with coal prices in some regions adjusting downward. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices remained stable [2] Import Data - In October, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, remaining at a relatively high level. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 94.1244 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1231 million tons, or 5.16% [2] - In October, 5.3653 million tons of Mongolian coking coal were imported, a decrease of 635,200 tons from September, mainly due to the port closure during the National Day holiday. In November, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a relatively high level, and there are rumors in the market that the port will test 2000 trucks of customs clearance. Attention should be paid to the actual customs clearance volume [2] - In October, 1.0469 million tons of Australian coking coal were imported, with a significant month-on-month increase. The import volumes of Russian and Canadian coking coal in October decreased slightly compared with September [2] Domestic Production and Demand - The domestic clean coal production was generally stable. On the demand side, the profit of steel mills continued to shrink. Last week, the daily average pig iron output decreased to 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 48,000 tons compared with the same period last year. During the off-season demand period, the pig iron output tended to decline, and the demand for raw materials was under pressure [2]