Overall Investment Outlook - The stock index is expected to fluctuate, influenced by the Fed's rate - cut expectations and the resilience of the domestic market [1] - The 10 - year treasury bond is likely to fluctuate, with 1.70% as the central position of the operating range [2] Stock Index Core View - Trump nominated Stephen Milan, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, as a Fed governor until the end of January next year. Fed Governor Waller is considered a top candidate for Fed Chair by the Trump team. The number of continued unemployment claims in the US last week rose to the highest since the end of 2021. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased by 4.1%. China's foreign exchange reserves in July decreased by 0.76% month - on - month, and the central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 9th consecutive month. The stock market turnover and index continue to recover, and the stock index may fluctuate [1] Strategy Recommendation - The stock index is expected to have a fluctuating trend [1] Market Review - The main contract futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 fell by 0.15%, 0.01%, 0.64%, and 0.30% respectively [5] Technical Analysis - The KDJ indicator shows that the market has a rebound trend [5] Treasury Bond Core View - The market on Thursday continued the recent favorable pattern, with the yield moving downward. Although the July import and export data announced on Thursday were much better than expected and the previous values, the market did not price them much. Other fundamental data may decline in the short term. Considering the approaching major event in September, production restrictions may increase, and the intensity of production activities will decline. The 10 - year treasury bond will likely have 1.70% as the central position of the operating range [2] Strategy Recommendation - The treasury bond market is expected to fluctuate [3] Market Review - The 10 - year, 5 - year, and 30 - year main contracts of treasury bonds rose by 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained unchanged [6] Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [7] Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,092.60 | - 0.15 | 54,603 | 149,221 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,797.80 | - 0.01 | 29,486 | 56,447 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,226.40 | - 0.64 | 48,504 | 106,065 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,750.00 | - 0.30 | 119,420 | 179,795 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.62 | 0.05 | 55,898 | 168,410 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.83 | 0.05 | 49,908 | 116,978 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.37 | 0.03 | 98,360 | 97,159 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.37 | 0.00 | 31,654 | 83,798 | [8]