Core Views - Trump and Zelensky reported a good atmosphere in their talks; Trump also spoke with Putin, and both sides supported direct negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations. Li Qiang stated that effective measures will be taken to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, cultivate and expand service consumption, and increase efforts to expand effective investment. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen financial support for technology and consumption. The market is strong, and it is recommended to use the T+0 feature of stock index futures, maintain positions, closely monitor market trends, lock in positions when a downward trend appears based on technical analysis, earn profits during the period of rising market sentiment, and stabilize profits when the trend is unfavorable [1]. - Considering the absolute levels, the yield of 30-year old bonds has risen to 2.15%, and the yield of newly issued 30-year local bonds has adjusted to over 2.32%, which is sufficient to cover the lowered liability costs of insurance funds, helping to attract insurance fund allocation. Meanwhile, there is a demand for corrective movement in the technical analysis of the equity market. The bond market may experience a slight recovery due to the "return to loose" liquidity conditions and a slight decline in equity market sentiment [2]. Strategy Recommendations - For stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on dips [1]. - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. Market Review Stock Index Futures - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.82%, SSE 50 rose 0.08%, CSI 500 rose 1.28%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.58% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10-year main contract fell 0.29%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.21%, the 30-year main contract fell 1.33%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.04% [6]. Technical Analysis Stock Index Futures - The RSI indicator shows that the market is approaching a short-term high [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The KDJ indicator shows that the T contract may rebound [6]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Type | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,237.80 | 0.82 | 99,705 | 168,841 | | 2025-08-18 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,848.40 | 0.08 | 52,884 | 74,907 | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,608.00 | 1.28 | 83,689 | 129,184 | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 7,184.40 | 1.58 | 187,694 | 220,587 | | 2025-08-18 | 10-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.02 | -0.29 | 90,469 | 107,322 | | 2025-08-18 | 5-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.46 | -0.21 | 70,226 | 86,134 | | 2025-08-18 | 30-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 116.09 | -1.33 | 141,981 | 61,613 | | 2025-08-18 | 2-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.30 | -0.04 | 46,079 | 61,412 | [7]

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 特朗普提名经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰担任美联储理事，任期至明年 1 月底。美联储理事沃勒被特朗普团队视作美联储主席的优先人选之一。美国 上周持续申领失业救济人数升至 2021 年底以来最高。中国 7 月按美元计出 口同比增长 7.2%，进口增长 4.1%。中国 7 月外汇储备规模环比下降 0.76%， 央行连续第 9 个月增持黄金。美联储降息预期叠加国内市场韧性，股市成交 额与指数继续修复，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 周四市场在延续了近期比较顺风的格局，虽然每天收益率下行幅度比较小， 但总的方向还是向下移动。虽然周四公布的 7 月份进出口数据均大幅好于预 期和前值，但市场定价并不多。近期其他基本面数据看似乎有短期内回落的 可能性，考虑到 9 月份重大活动临近，限产措施可能有所增加，生产活动强 度会有所下降。10 年国债近期或将以 1.70%为运行区间中枢位置。 ◆ 策略建议： 研究咨询部 2025-08-08 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司投资咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Index Futures - Trump threatens to significantly increase tariffs on India over oil purchases from Russia; Switzerland plans to offer a more attractive trade proposal to the US to reduce tariffs; the President of the San Francisco Fed predicts more than two interest rate cuts this year; the former third - in - command of the Fed believes internal differences are exaggerated. A - share new account openings in July increased by 71%. With high margin trading in China, a decline in fund holding ratios, and the Politburo meeting not exceeding expectations, there may be minor fluctuations during the intensive semi - annual report disclosure period in late August, and index futures may oscillate [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - After the announcement of the resumption of VAT on interest income from government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds on Friday, there was a wave of "scrambling for old bonds" in the bond market. On Monday, the yield of active bonds dropped by 1 - 1.5BP compared to Friday's last trading. Without major positive or negative factors, the market may return to low - volatility, and the 10 - year Treasury bond may oscillate within a narrow range around 1.70 [2]. Market Review Index Futures - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.52%, SSE 50 rose 0.54%, CSI 500 rose 0.97%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.42% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.02%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.08%, and the 2 - year main contract remained unchanged [5]. Technical Analysis Index Futures - The KDJ indicator shows a rebound trend for the broader market [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6]. Strategy Suggestions Index Futures - Oscillate [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Oscillate [2]. Futures Data (2025 - 08 - 04) | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 4,052.80 | 0.52 | 44,736 | 146,808 | | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2,770.40 | 0.54 | 24,294 | 56,661 | | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 6,169.00 | 0.97 | 42,885 | 102,178 | | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 6,642.60 | 1.42 | 119,420 | 177,500 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.47 | 0.02 | 77,910 | 175,703 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.72 | - 0.01 | 62,616 | 128,789 | | 30 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.19 | 0.08 | 122,755 | 105,770 | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.35 | 0.00 | 36,387 | 90,529 | [7]

Group 1: Core Views - The US Treasury's borrowing expectation in Q3 exceeds $1 trillion, an 82% increase, and debt issuance accelerates after the debt ceiling is raised; the auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds is unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low. China-US economic and trade talks begin in Stockholm, Sweden. China introduces a child-raising subsidy policy of 3,600 yuan per child per year for infants under 3 years old. The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to consolidate the market's stable and positive trend, deepen reforms to stimulate the vitality of the multi-level market, and strengthen the foundation from both the asset and capital sides. Against the backdrop of a significant drop in anti-involution-related futures, the CSRC's call for strengthening the foundation, and high technical indicators, market sentiment may cool down, but with continuous hot topics in the sector, the slow bull trend of stock indices remains unchanged, and stock indices may fluctuate. Short-term defensive waiting is advisable [1]. - Attention should be paid to whether important meetings will bring incremental demand-side policies. If the demand side can be repaired under the support of policies to absorb the pressure of the current cost increase, it may still be unwise to be overly optimistic about the bond market [3]. Group 2: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, consider defensive waiting [2]. - For treasury bonds, expect a weakening trend with fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Market Review Stock Indices - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.16%, those of SSE 50 rose 0.36%, those of CSI 500 rose 0.09%, and those of CSI 1000 fell 0.04% [6]. Treasury Bonds - The 10-year main contract rose 0.18%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.13%, the 30-year main contract rose 0.56%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.04% [7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis Stock Indices - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a risk of correction [6]. Treasury Bonds - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [7]. Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-28 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,122.00 | 0.16 | 54,638 | 156,735 | | 2025-07-28 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,805.80 | 0.36 | 28,883 | 60,762 | | 2025-07-28 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,222.00 | 0.09 | 46,353 | 108,139 | | 2025-07-28 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,602.00 | -0.04 | 116,079 | 180,433 | | 2025-07-28 | 10-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.40 | 0.18 | 78,985 | 187,839 | | 2025-07-28 | 5-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.72 | 0.13 | 71,923 | 148,362 | | 2025-07-28 | 30-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.78 | 0.56 | 120,609 | 120,283 | | 2025-07-28 | 2-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.36 | 0.04 | 43,197 | 101,434 | [8]

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is a financial futures daily report released on July 24, 2025, by the Research and Consulting Department of Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd [1][5] Group 2: Stock Index Core View - China's Ministry of Commerce announced that He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30. Media reports of a 15% tariff on the EU by the US were refuted by the White House. The EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on $100 billion of US goods. Trump claimed a US - Japan agreement with Japan accepting a 15% tax rate and opening auto and rice markets. The US Treasury Secretary is not in a hurry to decide Powell's successor. After the market sentiment cooled from coal mine production checks, trade news boosted market risk appetite, and the slow - bull trend of the stock index became clearer with its center rising [1] Strategy Recommendation - The stock index is expected to fluctuate upward [2] Market Review - The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 0.31%, 0.49%, 0.13%, and 0.06% respectively [6] Technical Analysis - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a callback risk [6] Group 3: Treasury Bonds Core View - On Tuesday, the bond market started to adjust. The odds space for long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened. In the past month, due to factors like fund diversion and increased risk appetite, the yield bottom has gradually risen, and with the microstructure not yet repaired, the bond market may continue to fluctuate at the bottom. The sustainability of equities and commodities needs further observation [3] Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to taking profits [4] Market Review - The main contracts of 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds fell by 0.12%, 0.09%, 0.22%, and 0.04% respectively [7] Technical Analysis - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [7] Group 4: Futures Data - On July 23, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various futures contracts are provided, including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000 stock index futures, and 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year treasury bond futures [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The US consumer confidence in May saw the largest increase in four years. Trump rarely praised the EU and was encouraged by the acceleration of trade negotiations. Japan's Ministry of Finance rarely "surveyed" the bond market and considered reducing the issuance of ultra - long bonds, leading to a violent rebound in Japanese bonds. In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the trading volume is insufficient. The stock index may fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Tuesday, without obvious negative news, the bond market yields rose by about 1bp across the board, with the long - end adjustment larger than the medium - and short - end. From the institutional net subscription desensitization data, it seems that pure bond funds experienced a large - scale redemption on Tuesday. The last similar redemption was in mid - March when banks began to cash in floating profits. There were also rumors in the market that commercial banks' motivation to cash in floating profits at the end of June was stronger than before. From the recent market micro - trends, treasury bonds performed weakly relative to policy financial bonds, and the bond - swap basis widened slightly, indicating a local supply - demand "imbalance" in the market. When "limited short - term downward space" and "being bullish but not buying" become market consensus, the impact of specific types of institutional trading behaviors on the market is magnified in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 index fell 0.51%, that of SSE 50 index fell 0.51%, that of CSI 500 index fell 0.24%, and that of CSI 1000 index fell 0.1% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate weakly and there is an adjustment risk [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.11%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.03%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.26%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows that it will fluctuate and may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 300 Continuous Contract | 3809.20 | - 0.51 | 54529 | 140116 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | SSE 50 Continuous Contract | 2668.60 | - 0.51 | 28167 | 51671 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 500 Continuous Contract | 5578.00 | - 0.24 | 52001 | 109673 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 1000 Continuous Contract | 5915.00 | - 0.10 | 140778 | 186517 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 108.73 | - 0.11 | 58575 | 165848 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 106.03 | - 0.03 | 43924 | 128934 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 119.46 | - 0.26 | 62401 | 92091 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 102.41 | - 0.02 | 32028 | 104798 | [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The Trump tax - cut bill barely passed in the House of Representatives and still faces challenges in the Senate. Fed理事沃勒 said the tax - cut bill triggered the selling of US Treasuries, and if tariffs stabilize, there may be an interest rate cut in the second half of the year. US May Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations and expanded, with the price index rising again. The Eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly contracted, and the service sector had its worst performance in 16 months. After the US - Japan finance ministers' meeting, the US said "no exchange - rate discussion, the current exchange rate reflects fundamentals", and Japan said "no discussion on US Treasuries". In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the equity index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Recently, the market has entered a data vacuum zone, lacking new positive or negative factors, and oscillation has become the consensus. From the futures trend, the long - and short - side forces are evenly matched. During the oscillation period, when it touches the upper or lower limit of the range, there will be short - term confrontations between the long and short sides. Without incremental information or fundamental data guidance in the short term, the oscillation pattern is expected to continue, and the market may continue to focus on spread mining [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Equity Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.05%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.1%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.7%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.81% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.0%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.0% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible oscillating operation with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 3879.60 | - 0.05 | 52835 | 143884 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2715.40 | 0.10 | 28918 | 51342 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 5614.80 | - 0.70 | 53832 | 116140 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 5950.00 | - 0.81 | 148619 | 195203 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.81 | 0.01 | 65126 | 156071 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.98 | - 0.00 | 47004 | 116615 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 30 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.52 | - 0.04 | 67554 | 82843 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.37 | - 0.00 | 34274 | 100554 | [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: Extreme conservative House members threaten to block Trump's tax - cut bill, and the White House warns that killing the bill would be an "ultimate betrayal". The EU says the US negotiation proposal is unrealistic and has a new plan. The US states that the Treasury Secretary and the Japanese Finance Minister did not discuss exchange - rate levels at the G7 meeting. Shanghai releases a special action plan to boost consumption. The domestic market rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the stock index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The suppression of bonds by the equity market is limited. Treasury bond futures show strong buying support near the technical support level in the afternoon. The market is looking for cost - effectiveness, and the allocation funds favor long - term local bonds in central regions with sufficient spread protection. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of yields is relatively limited under the background that the logic of loose liquidity remains and the signal of fundamental recovery needs to be verified. However, the short - term market lacks clear catalysts and the trend is in a stalemate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.43%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.46%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 0.13%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 fell 0.18% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate and there is an adjustment risk [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.27%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. Futures Data - On May 21, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index and treasury bond futures contracts are provided in a table [12].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The short - term outlook for treasury bonds is positive [4] Group 2: Core Views - For stock indices, China's April social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 280 billion yuan, the M2 - M1 gap widened, and RMB deposits increased by 12.55 trillion yuan in the first four months. The establishment of the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" was announced. The North - bound 50 and Flush micro - cap stocks reached new highs, while bank ETFs also neared historical highs, indicating more volatile subsequent stock index movements. Currently, the market index is close to the March high, but the fundamentals, sentiment, hot topics, and trading volume are not as good as in March. It is advisable to adopt a defensive stance and wait for a clear direction [1] - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the market is in a state of multi - empty equilibrium. The trading around short - term tariff issues is almost over. The core issues driving the market are whether funds can remain stable and whether there will be a rebound in production and exports. There is no clear tendency in the game between reality and expectations, and the market trend is rather confusing. It is difficult for the yield to break through the oscillation range since April before the continuous loosening of funds is disproven and the expectation of fundamental improvement is confirmed [3] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2] - For treasury bonds, be bullish in the short term [4] Group 4: Market Review - For stock indices, the futures of the CSI 300 index main contract rose 1.45%, the SSE 50 index main contract futures rose 1.85%, the CSI 500 index main contract futures rose 0.77%, and the CSI 1000 index main contract futures rose 0.77% [6] - For treasury bonds, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.12%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.13%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.05% [9] Group 5: Technical Analysis - For stock indices, the KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows possible oscillatory movement with adjustment risks [7] - For treasury bonds, the KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows oscillatory movement with a possible rebound [10] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3907.40 | 1.45 | 81957 | 164602 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2737.60 | 1.85 | 48329 | 61472 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5697.80 | 0.77 | 72621 | 117024 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6043.00 | 0.77 | 189515 | 196475 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.53 | - 0.12 | 68753 | 126019 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.81 | - 0.13 | 55124 | 104037 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.93 | - 0.23 | 78310 | 59236 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.29 | - 0.05 | 35705 | 59021 | [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Oscillatory operation" [2][3] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "Short - term optimistic" [3] Core Viewpoints Stock Index - The Fed paused rate cuts again, warning of stagflation risks and reiterating increased "uncertainty". Powell ignored Trump, saying the economy is still good and uncertainty is extremely high, and refused to act preemptively due to tariffs. The Bank of Japan unanimously agreed to "stand pat", keeping the interest rate at 0.5%. China's Foreign Ministry responded to the China - US high - level economic and trade talks. China's financial sector introduced a package of policies to stabilize the market and expectations. A major reform plan for the public fund industry was implemented, linking the interests of investors, tying fund managers' compensation to returns, and reducing fees. With multiple positive factors, attention should be paid to the stock index trend. If there is a downward trend to fill the gap, it may fill the gap before rebounding; if the overall situation is stable and favorable, the stock index may oscillate strongly [1] Treasury Bond - Currently, as the policy rate drives down the short - term money market interest rate center, the certainty of the short - to medium - term part of the curve is relatively high. After the curve steepens again, it in turn provides "protection" for the long - term end. The bond market as a whole may still be in a situation with a relatively high probability of success but limited odds. Before the fundamental situation shows a significant improvement, there is no need to be overly cautious [2] Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.51%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.66%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 0.01%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 0.12% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.19%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.62%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.01% [6] Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market oscillates strongly [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract oscillates strongly [7] Strategy Suggestions Stock Index - Oscillatory operation [2] Treasury Bond - Short - term optimistic [3] Data Table | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/07 | CSI 300 continuous main contract | 3785.00 | 0.51 | 56105 | 141994 | | 2025/05/07 | SSE 50 continuous main contract | 2646.40 | 0.66 | 29460 | 46351 | | 2025/05/07 | CSI 500 continuous main contract | 5620.20 | 0.01 | 54572 | 100287 | | 2025/05/07 | CSI 1000 continuous main contract | 5955.20 | 0.12 | 158085 | 174521 | | 2025/05/07 | 10 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 108.85 | - 0.19 | 85388 | 180727 | | 2025/05/07 | 5 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 106.00 | - 0.08 | 62281 | 151057 | | 2025/05/07 | 30 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 120.14 | - 0.62 | 115667 | 93433 | | 2025/05/07 | 2 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 102.31 | - 0.01 | 40388 | 89974 | [9]