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中加基金权益周报|债市再度进入观察期,等待海内外时间发酵
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-04-22 01:47
Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 4,350 billion, 2,006 billion, and 1,406 billion respectively, with net financing of 3,800 billion, 1,227 billion, and 1,406 billion [2] - The secondary market experienced narrow fluctuations, with the overall curve flattening, influenced by factors such as liquidity, economic financial data, and U.S. policy volatility [2] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank net injected liquidity to offset MLF maturities and tax periods, resulting in a balanced liquidity environment, with R001 and R007 rising by 3.8 basis points and 1 basis point respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Economic and financial data for March exceeded expectations, but there are concerns regarding the economic outlook for the second quarter. High-frequency data indicates a divergence in production indicators, with strong performance in upstream sectors and weakness in downstream sectors, alongside declining real estate and export sentiment [4] Overseas Market - Trade negotiations between the U.S. and multiple countries have commenced, leading to a decrease in volatility in overseas markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.34%, down 14 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The Shanghai Composite Index showed consecutive gains from Monday to Thursday, indicating clear support from state-owned entities, while the ChiNext Index performed relatively weaker. The overall A-share market rose by 0.39%, with the Shanghai 50 up by 1.45% and the CSI 300 up by 0.59%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.64%. A-share trading volume significantly decreased, with an average daily turnover of 1.11 trillion, down 502.3 billion week-on-week [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market has entered a period of observation and fluctuation, awaiting further developments in domestic and international events. The macroeconomic environment is complex, and the market lacks a clear direction. Key focus areas for the second quarter include the progress of U.S.-China tariff negotiations and potential domestic policy adjustments, with the upcoming Politburo meeting serving as an important window for observing mid-year policy trends [7]