有色金属周报(电解铜) 特朗普或将掌控美联储增强降息预期， 全球电解铜总库存量初现下降支撑铜价 2025年8月26日 电解铜 宏源期货研究所 王文虎 （F03087656，Z0019472） 电解铜 宏观：进口关税推升商品价格致美国7月生产端通胀PPI年率和消费端通胀核心CPI年率有所升高，但是美联 储主席鲍威尔因就业供需双弱而表示风险平衡点变化可能要求调整政策，使美联储9月降息预期有所升温，但仍 需关注9月5日和11日美国8月新增非农就业人数及消费者物价指数CPI。 上游：国内8月铜精矿生产(进口)量环比增加(增加) ；欧洲高品质废铜被限制出口使中国进口商仅能采购铜 米或黄铜，中美关税谈判不确定性使贸易商对美国废铜直接进口低迷而通过日韩泰等国中转供给，国内电解铜与 光亮及老化废铜价差为负或削弱废铜经济性，废铜进口窗口关闭，或使国内废铜8月生产(进口)量环比增加(减少) 而供需预期偏紧； 江西科力铜业一期15万吨阳极板项目（二期25万吨铜杆和三期20万吨阴极铜与铜合金项目）1号熔炼炉于8月 11日点火，中国北方（南方）粗铜周度加工费环比持平（下降），中国废产阳极板产能开工率较上周下降，国内 冶炼厂8月粗炼检修 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-26 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 1.中美关税谈判进展短期利多美豆，美国大豆天气近期相对良好，短期 美盘受美农报数据相对利多影响震荡回升，预期千点关口上方震荡，未来等 待美豆生长和收割情况以及进口大豆到港和中美关税谈判后续进一步指引。 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆丰产预期打压盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升，美 豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面上 涨高度，短期或进入震荡偏强格局。偏多 2.基差：现货3010（华 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，油脂上涨带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方震荡等待中 美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，获利盘回吐 和技术性震荡整理，八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面上涨高度，短 期或进入震荡偏强格局。偏多 2.基差：现货2990（华东），基差-123，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存100.35万吨，上周104.16万吨，环比减少3.66%，去年同期147.01万 吨，同比减少31.74%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Bean Meal - The short - term trend is likely to be in a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. The support comes from factors such as the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, and relatively low inventory in domestic oil mills. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside potential [8]. 2.2 Soybeans - The short - term trend is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Bean meal: In the short - term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. - Soybeans: In the short - term, it is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China in August remains high, and the inventory of oil mill bean meal is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, bean meal is in a short - term moderately strong oscillation [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mill bean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Bean Meal - Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 161, indicating a discount to futures. - Oil mill bean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. 3.4.2 Soybeans - Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 254, indicating a premium to futures. - Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - For both bean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main players are increasing, and capital is flowing in [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The US soybean market is oscillating upward, with short - term weather uncertainties and technical consolidation. It awaits the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market is also in an upward oscillation, supported by good demand expectations and technical factors. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside. It may enter a moderately bullish oscillation pattern in the short term. The domestic soybean market is in a narrow - range oscillation, affected by the US soybean trend and technical factors. The high volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppress the price. It is currently under the interactive influence of the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - growing areas, the US soybean market is oscillating upward after being affected by relatively positive data in the US agricultural report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China remains high in August, and the soybean meal inventory in oil mills is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, soybean meal is in a short - term moderately bullish oscillation. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations for pig replenishment. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price. Considering the uncertainty in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal returns to an oscillation pattern within a range. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war, soybean meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory; uncertainties in US soybean - growing area weather [13]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans arriving in July; the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected recovery in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2990, with a basis of - 165, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The main - contract long positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4300, with a basis of 256, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. The main - contract long positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Transaction Data**: From August 7th to 18th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2999 to 3086, and the trading volume ranged from 0.15 to 33.1 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2640 to 2660, and the trading volume was relatively low. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: From August 8th to 18th, the futures prices of soybean No. 1 (2511), soybean No. 2 (2511), soybean meal near - month (2509), and soybean meal main - contract (2601) all showed certain fluctuations. The spot prices of soybean No. 1 (in Jiamusi), soybean No. 2 (duty - paid price), and soybean meal (in Jiangsu) also changed to some extent [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse - receipt Data**: From August 6th to 18th, the soybean No. 1 warehouse receipts decreased from 13621 to 12632, the soybean No. 2 warehouse receipts remained at 2900 for most of the time, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts were mainly 10925 or 10950 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - and - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: The planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 are presented, including data on planting rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, harvest rate, etc. [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - and - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - and - demand reports from February to August 2025 show changes in harvest area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [41]. - **Other Market Data**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans is increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China is decreasing from its high in August but showing an overall year - on - year increase. The soybean inventory in oil mills is slightly increasing, while the soybean meal inventory is slightly decreasing. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have risen to a high and then declined, with an increase in short - term stocking demand. The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans is rising with the increase in US soybean prices, and the profit margin of imported soybeans in the futures market is deteriorating. The pig inventory is rising, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreasing month - on - month. The pig price has recently declined after reaching a high, and the piglet price remains weak. The proportion of large pigs in China is increasing, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs is slightly rising. The domestic pig - farming profit has recently declined [42][44][45][47][51][53][55][57][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market in the US is oscillating and rising, with short - term weather uncertainties and short - covering. It is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has risen and then fallen, affected by rapeseed meal and technical adjustments. In the short term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The soybean market in China is oscillating and falling, influenced by the decline of US soybeans and technical adjustments. It is affected by the high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [8][10]. - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the US agricultural report. The domestic soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term due to the high arrival of imported soybeans, the relatively high inventory of soybean meal in oil mills, and the positive data from the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the US agricultural report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is relatively high. Affected by the relatively positive data from the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High arrival of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price is 2980 (East China), with a basis of - 157, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 244, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10].

低硫燃料油方面，供应端，尼日利亚RFCC装置处于间歇性检修状态，运营仍不稳定；南苏丹对外低硫 原料供应逐步回升至2024年初水平，8月新装载船货已陆续发布招标。此外，Al-Zour的低硫燃料油出口 量已回升至炼厂正常运行时期的高位，其中对新加坡地区的出口增长尤为明显。 国内市场方面，低硫燃料油产量维持低位。国内主营单位有20万吨低硫燃料油出口配额转为成品油配 额，导致今年主营单位低硫燃料油生产积极性不高。 8月主营单位低硫燃料油排产约 105万吨，保税区供应相对偏紧，进口需求得以维持，短期内对低硫燃 料油估值形成一定支撑。不过，近期印度、中东和美国发往欧洲的柴油数量增加，导致欧洲柴油裂解价 差快速走弱，海外柴油供应紧张的情况有所缓解。从调和角度看，低硫组分供应有望回升，但这一逻辑 仍存在变数。因ARA地区柴油库存仍处于低位，不利于满足冬季取暖需求。后期随着墨西哥湾飓风季 来临和炼厂秋季检修启动，柴油市场将再次面临供不应求局面，低硫燃料油估值仍将获得支撑。 在关税政策扰动下，全球经济增长的不确定性影响航运需求，进而传导至燃料油需求。此外，随着航运 业碳中和推进，低硫燃料油的市场份额正被逐步替代。5月起生效的 E ...

CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 需求表现良好，豆粕偏强震荡 （豆粕周报8.4-8.8） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 偏空 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 期整体良好 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆震荡回落，中美关税 | 偏空 | 进口成本预计维持震荡，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期预期尚好， | 偏空 | 需求短期改善偏淡，油厂开 | | | 油厂压榨量维持高位 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound is limited by a bountiful South American harvest and good recent planting weather in the US. In China, increased imports of Brazilian soybeans also contribute to the range - bound trend [8]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market is also likely to move within a range. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the bottom, while the bountiful South American harvest and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit the upside [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060. The fundamentals are neutral, with a negative basis, a positive inventory trend, a positive technical chart, and a positive trend in the main positions [8]. - **Soybeans**: The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The fundamentals are neutral, with a positive basis, a negative inventory trend, a negative technical chart, and a positive trend in the main positions [10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean futures are expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark [12]. - China's imported soybean arrivals remained high in July, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continued to rise. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern due to factors such as the uncertain weather in the US and the China - US trade negotiations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Bearish**: High arrivals of imported soybeans in July, a bountiful South American soybean harvest, and good planting weather in the US [13]. Soybeans - **Bullish**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish**: Bountiful South American harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Prices**: The report provides price data for soybean meal and soybeans from July 30 to August 7, including futures and spot prices [15][17]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are presented, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - **Sowing and Growth Progress**: Sowing, growth, and harvesting progress data for soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 are provided, which can help analyze supply expectations [33][34][35]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Positions**: The report does not provide specific position data but mentions that the main long positions in soybean meal have increased while funds have flowed out, and the main long positions in soybeans have decreased with funds flowing out [8][10].

豆粕早报 2025-08-07 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，美豆产区天气整体良好和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口附近震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，需 求良好和技术性震荡整理，八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期 或回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2910（华东），基差-116，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存104.31万吨，上周99.84万吨，环比增加4.48%，去年同期134.59万吨， 同比减少22.5%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏 ...