【市场表现】 【操作建议】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【资金面】 央行公告称，11月24日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3387亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量3387亿元，中标量3387亿元。数据显示，当日2830亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净 投放557亿元。银行间市场周一资金面宽松无虞，主要期限回购利率低位盘整，存款类机构隔夜回购利 率小降并徘徊于1.32%附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价亦仍在1.3%，供给规模在千亿元左 右；非银机构质押信用债融入隔夜资金，报价在1.47%-1.48%附近。资金面情绪暂时无忧，不过本周进 入跨月周，资金面或仍有波动，关注央行周二MLF续做规模及后续逆回购投放力度。 10月以来由于央行重启国债买卖、基本面偏 ...

中金研究 展望未来，短期我们认为此种态势或维持，不过需要关注股市走势，如果持续下跌则可能带来部分固收+产品的赎回，从而引发持仓债券抛售，对收益率 也会产生上行压力。但是正如我们前期判断，信用债在进入开放期的摊余成本法债基新增需求的支撑下，或相对更抗跌，信用利差仍会在低位震荡，信用 债收益率或仍将跟随利率波动。更长期限来看，2026年上半年仍有较大规模的摊余成本债基进入开放期，其中5年及以上的占比会上升，我们认为对5-7年 左右的信用债需求支撑或增加。 债市延续小幅震荡 上周现券市场窄幅震荡。周一买断式逆回购超量续作，现券多数走强，长端表现好于短端。二至周五，债市整体缺乏明显方向，股债跷跷板影响日内走 势，债券利率整体窄幅震荡。和上周五相比，10年期国债收益率上行1bp收于1.82%，10年期国开债收益率收平于1.94%，30年期国债收益率上行1bp收于 2.16%。信用债方面，上周非金融信用债一级发行量为4096亿元，较上周的2702亿元大幅增长，偿还量差异不大，故净融资额亦增长明显，由上周的231 亿元增长至1324亿元。二级方面，本周债券收益率中等久期品种表现较好，具体而言，1Y基本不变、3Y下行0-2b ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View On November 20, the liquidity continued to ease, the bond market mainly oscillated, the yields of interest - rate bonds changed within 1bp, the main indices of the convertible bond market declined collectively, most convertible bond issues fell, the yields of US Treasury bonds across maturities generally declined, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally rose [1]. Summary by Section 1. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, marking six consecutive months of no change [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce urged Japan to correct its wrong remarks on Taiwan. If Japan persists, China will take necessary measures [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce hoped that the Netherlands would take practical actions to solve the Nexperia issue and restore the security and stability of the global semiconductor supply chain [4]. - 50 cities were short - listed for the pilot program of new consumption models, and the central government will provide up to 400 million yuan per city in subsidies [4][5]. - **International News** - The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, more than double the expected 51,000, but the unemployment rate reached 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The September non - farm report deepened the Fed's internal division [6]. - **Commodities** - On November 20, WTI December crude futures fell 0.50% to $59.14/barrel, Brent January crude futures fell 0.20% to $63.38/barrel, COMEX December gold futures fell 0.56% to $4,060/ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.62% to $4.490/ounce [7]. 2. Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations** - On November 20, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 110 billion yuan after 190 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [9]. - **Funding Rates** - On November 20, the liquidity continued to ease, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. DR001 dropped 5.69bp to 1.365%, and DR007 dropped 2.74bp to 1.486%. Other rates such as Shibor also showed varying degrees of decline [10][11]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On November 20, the bond market mainly oscillated, and the yield changes of interest - rate bonds were within 1bp. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 rose 0.30bp to 1.8100%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250215 rose 0.25bp to 1.8720% [13]. - **Bond Tendering** - Various bonds such as 25 Guokai Qingfa bonds and 25 Jinchujian bonds were tendered, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [14]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies** - On November 20, the trading price of one industrial bond, "21 Taixin 06", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 11% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Events such as bond payment extension proposals, issuance cancellations, commercial paper overdue payments, and companies being restricted from high - end consumption or undergoing reorganization occurred among multiple companies [18]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On November 20, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index falling 0.40%, 0.76%, and 1.12% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market also declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index falling 0.23%, 0.27%, and 0.23% respectively [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On November 21, Maolai Convertible Bond started online subscription, and Qizhong Convertible Bond was listed. Multiple convertible bonds announced redemption - related matters [22]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Treasury Bonds** - On November 20, the yields of US Treasury bonds across maturities generally declined. The 2 - year yield dropped 3bp to 3.55%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 3bp to 4.10%. The inflation - adjusted break - even inflation rate of 10 - year US Treasury bonds dropped 3bp to 2.24% [23][25]. - **European Bonds** - On November 20, except for the 10 - year UK government bond yield which dropped 1bp, the 10 - year government bond yields of other major European economies generally rose [26]. - **Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on November 20, the daily price changes of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds varied, with some bonds rising and some falling [28].

风险偏好回落，债市震荡为主 国债周报 2025/11/22 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 经济及政策：10月经济数据显示，供需两端均有所回落，受外需走弱、"反内卷"政策影响生产结构调整，以及工作日减少的共同作用，10 月工业增加值增速下滑。新型政策性金融工具未能完全对冲地产下行的冲击，当前需求恢复的动力不足，经济内生修复态势仍待巩固。出口 方面，10月出口数据低于预期，对美出口回落而非美地区出口增速维持韧性。四中全会强调坚决实现全年经济社会发展目标，考虑到今年前 三季度经济增速较高，因此今年实现目标的压力不大,政策面可能更多关注与明年的衔接性政策，四季度加码的必要性不强。海外方面，11 美元流动性偏紧，后续观察通胀以及就业数据对12月降息的指示。 1、1 ...

旗团 21世纪经济报道 理财公司月月正收益纯固收类 公募产品近一年业绩榜单 (投资周期6-12个月 | 号 | 产品名称 | 三十八 | 净值增 长率 | 最大回撤 | 年化波动 湖 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 邮银财富·鸿运一年定开1 4号人民可理财产品 | 中邮理财 4.25% | | 0.51% | 0.89% | | | 9个月信用精选最短的有 | 中银理财 | 3.63% | 0.05% | 0.42% | | | 斯国仅里斯音品A | | | | | | | 邮政营销量可能运用期365 天型3号人民币理财产品 | 中邮理财 3.57% | | 0.43% | 0.70% | | 4 | 丰利甄合1年定期开放1 | 兴银理财 | 3.57% | 0.01% | 0.50% | | | 号固化学生财产品A | | | | | | 5 | 珠联璧合安稳1909一年 宸开公募人民币理财产品 南银理财 3.50% | | | 0.05% | 0.20% | | | B | | | | | | | "安容"固定收益类一年定 | 144 2 2 1 - ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to experience fluctuations, with the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) slightly down by 0.04% and the thirty-year government bond futures down by 0.41%. The central bank's "moderate easing" stance has led to uncertainty in interest rates, and despite weak credit expansion, monetary policy is not significantly relaxed, resulting in a complex bond market environment [1] Group 1 - The central bank's gradual shift towards more precise and efficient regulation aims to avoid excessive liquidity, contributing to the bond market's entangled state [1] - The resumption of government bond trading by the central bank sets a ceiling for bond yields, while external risks easing prevents the ten-year bond yield from dropping to 1.6%, indicating limited overall volatility [1] - From an asset allocation perspective, bonds are viewed as a hedge against stock market risks, with a recommendation to focus on the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) for balanced stock-bond allocation [1]

据报道，今年以来，受益于资本市场回暖和低利率环境，券商发债规模大幅增长，截至11月12日累计发债达1.6万亿元，同比增长62.34%。多家头部券商发 行百亿元级债券，主要用于偿还债务和补充流动资金，以增强资本实力、支持重资本业务发展。同时，自5月债市'科技板'推出以来，券商积极响应，共发 行58只科创债，总规模达789.7亿元，投资者认购踊跃，平均超额认购3.8倍。券商还通过承销、做市等方式全面参与科创债市场建设，推动业务向全链条生 态拓展，提升综合服务能力与竞争力。 机构分析指出，债市或将继续维持震荡格局，政府债发行规模有所回落，资金面在央行持续呵护下保持均衡。近期债市缺乏明显主线下，短期市场交易逻辑 可能主要围绕股债跷跷板、公募费率新规等政策预期展开。在当前基本面边际转弱、央行呵护资金面宽松，但强调跨周期调节的情况下，债市仍"上有顶、 下有底"，短期可能维持横盘震荡。 中信建投表示，展望2026年，我们认为转债资产在权益资产催化与高强赎概率制约下，整体上可能依然呈现较为显著的区间震荡特征。一方面，在权益资产 预期回报率提升与转债自身稀缺性影响下，转债资产出现大幅回撤难度较大；而另一方面，受制于转债资产整体 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the current bond market has more opportunities than risks, especially from November to December [11]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.14), the domestic bond market maintained an overall volatile pattern. The yield of 1 - year Treasury bonds rose by 0.59BP to 1.41%, the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remained flat at 1.81%, and the yield of 30 - year Treasury bonds fell by 1.00BP to 2.15%. The change in the wording of the third - quarter monetary policy implementation report towards further easing and the warming of inflation data led to a cooling of expectations for further monetary policy easing, resulting in a short - term continuation of the volatile pattern in the bond market [2][10]. - The US bond yield increased last week. The 1 - year US bond yield rose by 7BP to 3.70%, the 2 - year US bond yield rose by 7BP to 3.62%, and the 10 - year US bond yield rose by 3BP to 4.14%. The increasingly hawkish attitude of Fed officials led to a significant cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [11]. - The issuance of Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT was very popular, achieving "one - day sell - out". The public offering part of Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT, which was launched on November 11, exceeded the initial fundraising scale limit in one day and started the proportional placement [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Pan - fixed - income Market Review and Observation - **Domestic Bond Market**: The domestic bond market was volatile last week. The change in the monetary policy report's wording and the warming of inflation data affected the market. In the long term, the downward breakthrough of long - term yields depends on economic data and investors' risk preferences. Overall, the bond market from November to December has more opportunities than risks [10][11]. - **US Bond Market**: The US bond yield increased last week. The hawkish attitude of Fed officials and the under - expected auction yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds led to a significant cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [11]. - **REITs Market**: The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose by 0.86% last week, with the transportation, affordable housing, consumption, and warehousing and logistics sectors leading the rise, while the municipal environmental protection and data center sectors falling. The issuance of Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT was very popular [12]. 3.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The issuance of Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT was very popular, achieving "one - day sell - out". The public offering part exceeded the initial fundraising scale limit in one day, and the public investor subscription confirmation ratio was 5.83%, while the offline investor confirmation ratio was as low as 0.68% [12][13]. 3.3. Pan - fixed - income Fund Index Performance Tracking - **Performance Statistics**: - The money enhancement index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.30% since its establishment [4]. - The short - term bond fund selection index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.48% since its establishment [4]. - The medium - and long - term bond fund selection index rose by 0.07% last week, with a cumulative return of 6.82% since its establishment [4]. - The low - volatility fixed - income + fund selection index rose by 0.07% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.78% since its establishment [4]. - The medium - volatility fixed - income + fund selection index rose by 0.04% last week, with a cumulative return of 6.12% since its establishment [4]. - The high - volatility fixed - income + fund selection index fell by 0.06% last week, with a cumulative return of 8.11% since its establishment [4]. - The convertible bond fund selection index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 23.54% since its establishment [4]. - The QDII bond fund selection index rose by 0.08% last week, with a cumulative return of 10.35% since its establishment [4]. - The REITs fund selection index rose by 1.67% last week, with a cumulative return of 33.81% since its establishment [4]. - **Index Positioning**: - **Money Enhancement Strategy Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a curve that surpasses money funds and rises smoothly, and mainly allocates money market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds [17]. - **Short - term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a smooth upward curve on the basis of ensuring drawdown control, and mainly configures 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute return capabilities [19]. - **Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Aims to obtain stable returns by investing in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, controls drawdowns, and tries to obtain excess returns relative to the medium - and long - term bond fund index. It selects funds with both returns and drawdown control, and flexibly adjusts the duration and the proportion of credit bond funds and interest rate bond funds according to market conditions [21]. - **Low - volatility Fixed - income + Selection Index**: The equity center is positioned at 10%, and 10 funds are selected each period. It focuses on selecting fixed - income + targets with an equity center within 15% in the past three years and recently, and emphasizes the holding experience [22]. - **Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Selection Index**: The equity center is positioned at 20%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects fixed - income + targets with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently, and focuses on the performance - risk cost - effectiveness [25]. - **High - volatility Fixed - income + Selection Index**: The equity center is positioned at 30%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects fixed - income + targets with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently, and focuses on selecting targets with strong stock - picking ability and certain offensiveness on the equity side [26][29]. - **Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index**: Selects bond - type funds with the average proportion of convertible bond investment in bond market value greater than or equal to 60% in the latest period and greater than or equal to 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system from multiple dimensions and selects 5 funds to form the index [30]. - **QDII Bond Fund Selection Index**: Selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on the credit and duration of overseas bonds to form the index [33]. - **REITs Fund Selection Index**: Selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset types of REITs to form the index [34].

周度报告-国债期货 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货窄幅震荡 本周（11.10-11.16）国债期货窄幅震荡。周一，周末公布的 10 月通胀数据超预期，早盘现券利率上行，但由于科技股震荡调 整，国债期货震荡转涨，曲线走平。周二，市场消息面较为平 静，成交相对清淡。上午股市震荡走弱，国债期货小幅拉升， 午后股市低位震荡，市场担忧费率新规落地，国债期货转而走 弱。周三，央行昨日晚间公布的 Q3 货政报告表述整体中性，股 市中光伏、科技板块表现偏弱，红利板块走强，国债期货小幅 上涨。周四，市场消息面平静，股市持续上涨，锂电、有色等 板块涨幅靠前，国债期货震荡下跌。尾盘公布的 10 月金融数据 多数表现偏弱，但债市反应不大。周五，早盘统计局公布的 10 月经济数据普遍不及预期，股市震荡略偏弱，债市小幅走强； 午间股市跌幅扩大，但债市较为担忧买断式逆回购缩量而下 跌，尾盘债市担忧情绪有所缓解。截至 11 月 14 日收盘，两 年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货主力合约结算价分别为 102.446、105.850、108.390 和 116.070 元，分别较上周末变动- 0.026、-0.070、-0 ...

新华财经北京11月12日电（王菁）债市周三（11月12日）小幅回暖，超长端率先走强，国债期货主力全 线收涨，银行间现券收益率回落0.5-1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放1300亿元，短端资金利率集体下 行。 机构认为，债市缺少方向，仍处于震荡整理过程中，随时会因资金面、股市和机构行为变化而波动，暂 时看不到明确的趋势。业内观点还表示，更多经济数据将出炉，机构在博弈年末货币政策是否会有放松 的可能性。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.09%报116.45，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.52，5年期 主力合约涨0.03%报105.97，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.472元。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍小幅下行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行1BP报2.143%，10 年期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.4BP报1.871%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率下行0.4BP报 1.8%。 亚洲市场方面，日债收益率多数上行，3年期和5年期日债收益率分别上行0.3BP和0.1BP，报1.051%和 1.25%。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间11月11日，10年 ...