Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The copper market is influenced by multiple factors, with a neutral to slightly bearish outlook. The copper price is expected to move in a volatile manner due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, increased uncertainty of US trade tariffs, and ongoing geopolitical disturbances [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, showing a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. The smelting enterprises have cut production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 78370, with a basis of 380, indicating a premium over the futures, which is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On June 20, copper inventory decreased by 4125 tons to 99200 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1129 tons to 100814 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is moving upwards, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish bias [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, increased uncertainty of US trade tariffs, and ongoing geopolitical disturbances, the copper price is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Logic**: The market is affected by domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact are not elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024 [20][22].