每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，10月份中国制造业生产活动 较上月放缓，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)降至49.0%；中性。 2、基差：现货85870，基差210，升水期货； 中性。 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 3、库存：11月21日铜库存减2900至155025吨，上期所铜库存较上周增1196吨至110603吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价高位震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价高位震荡运行 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，10月份中国制造业生产活动 较上月放缓，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)降至49.0%；中性。 2、基差：现货86410，基差280，升水期货； 中性。 3、库存：11月20日铜库存增50至157925吨，上期所铜库存较上周减5628吨至109407吨；中性。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared to the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The overall situation is neutral [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 86,510 with a basis of 60, indicating a premium over futures, also neutral [2]. - On November 17, copper inventories increased by 325 to 136,050 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventories decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared to the previous week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is moving upwards, a neutral signal [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing, showing a slightly bullish tendency [2]. - It is expected that with the inventory rebound and geopolitical disturbances still existing (such as the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia), copper prices will fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances and manufacturing slowdown, neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot premium over futures, neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: Inventory changes, neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Closing price and moving average relationship, neutral [2]. - **Main Positions**: Net long with decreasing long positions, slightly bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: High - level price fluctuations due to inventory and geopolitics [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空 Analysis - **Leveraging Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation, but no clear indication of impact direction [3]. 3.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared to last week, and on November 17, copper inventory increased by 325 to 136,050 tons [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 3.4 Processing Fee - Processing fees are falling [17]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral supply - demand fundamental situation, with some disturbances on the supply side such as smelting enterprise production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policies. The manufacturing PMI in China dropped to 49.0% in October. The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, like the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances include smelting enterprise production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policies. China's manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, indicating a slowdown in production activities; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 86815, with a basis of 185, showing a premium over the futures; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 11, copper inventory decreased by 25 to 136250 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1105 tons to 115035 tons compared to last week; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Market**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward; assessment is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long and the long position increased; assessment is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Trade - war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is in a tight balance [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance figures from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [22]. Other Information - **Spot**: The document provides information on the spot including location, mid - price, change, and inventory details, but specific data is not fully disclosed [6]. - **Exchange Inventory**: Information about exchange inventory is mentioned but specific details are not provided [11]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee has declined [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The supply side of copper is disrupted with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policies being loosened. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared to the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The copper market is considered neutral based on fundamentals. The spot price is 86,470 with a basis of -10, indicating a discount to the futures price, also neutral. Copper inventories increased on November 10, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased from last week. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - trending, and the main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing. Overall, it is expected that copper prices will oscillate at a high level due to inventory increases and geopolitical disturbances, such as the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply side has disruptions, smelting enterprises cut production, scrap copper policy is loosened, and China's manufacturing PMI in October is 49.0%, neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 86,470, basis is -10, discount to futures, neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 10, copper inventory increased by 375 to 136,275 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons from last week, neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - trending, bullish [2]. - **Main Positions**: Main net positions are long but long positions are decreasing, bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Copper prices will oscillate at a high level due to inventory increases and geopolitical disturbances [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: Global policy easing [3]. - **利空**: Trade war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance data from 2018 - 2024 [22]. Other Information - Bonded area inventory is rising from a low level [14]. - Processing fees are falling [16].

Report Core View - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. China's manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49.0%. The inventory is rising, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The supply side is disturbed, and China's manufacturing production activity slowed down in October with the PMI at 49.0%, considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 86,610 with a basis of 870, showing a premium over futures, considered bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 4, copper inventory increased by 300 to 133,900 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,348 tons to 116,140 tons last week, considered neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, considered neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long and the long position is increasing, considered bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances, such as the event at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine, the copper price will fluctuate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned, but specific impacts of "利多" (bullish) and "利空" (bearish) are not detailed [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance. China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance data from 2018 - 2024 [19][21]. Other Information - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the processing fee has declined [13][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared to the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to factors such as inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply-side disturbances, relaxed scrap copper policy, and a slowdown in China's manufacturing in October. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, considered neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 86935, with a basis of -365, indicating a discount to the futures, considered neutral [2]. - Inventory: On November 3, copper inventory decreased by 1025 to 133600 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory increased by 11348 tons to 116140 tons compared to the previous week, considered neutral [2]. - Disk: The closing price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, considered bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, with a shift from short to long, considered bullish [2]. - Expectation: Inventory is rising, and geopolitical disturbances remain. The incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine is fermenting, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Global policy easing [3]. -利空: Trade war escalation [3]. Supply and Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [19]. - The China annual supply and demand balance sheet shows production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply-demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [21]. Other Information - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - Processing fees have declined [15].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being liberalized. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI rose to 49.8%, with the economic climate continuing to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia [2]. Industry Analysis Fundamentals - The supply side has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production cuts, and the scrap copper policy is liberalized. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI reached 49.8%, with the economic climate continuing to improve, showing a neutral situation [2]. Basis - The spot price is 87,920, and the basis is -40, indicating a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [2]. Inventory - On October 30, copper inventories decreased by 400 to 134,950 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 5,448 tons from the previous week to 104,792 tons, showing a neutral situation. The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [2][13]. Market Trends - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish situation [2]. Main Position - The main net position is short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish situation [2]. Supply - Demand Balance - There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024 [19][21]. Other Factors - The processing fee has declined, and the recent analysis of long and short factors includes global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has some disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances exist with smelting production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policy. September manufacturing PMI reached 49.8%, showing improved business climate; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 85940, basis is 1530, indicating a premium over futures; assessment is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 14, copper inventory decreased by 550 to 138800 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 14656 tons to 109690 tons compared to last week; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising; assessment is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: Main net long positions are held, but long positions are decreasing; assessment is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory is rising, and geopolitical disturbances remain. The incident at the Indonesian Grasberg Block Cave mine is intensifying, and the copper price will maintain its strength [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Escalation of trade wars [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: On October 14, copper inventory decreased by 550 to 138800 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 14656 tons to 109690 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - Processing fees are falling [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is in a tight - balance state [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance data from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 110000 tons [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production cut actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In September, manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the PMI rising to 49.8%, and the economic climate continued to improve [2]. - The spot price is 85085, with a basis of -35, indicating a discount to the futures price [2]. - On October 13, copper inventories decreased by 50 to 139350 tons, and the SHFE copper inventories increased by 14656 tons to 109690 tons compared to last week [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish trend [2]. - The net position of the main players is long, and the long positions are increasing [2]. - With the inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining (such as the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia), the copper price will maintain its strength [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamental analysis: The supply side is disturbed, while the manufacturing PMI shows improvement, considered neutral [2]. - Basis analysis: Spot price is at a discount to futures, neutral [2]. - Inventory analysis: Copper inventories show mixed trends, considered neutral [2]. - Technical analysis: The closing price and moving average indicate a bullish trend [2]. - Position analysis: The main players' net long position and increasing long positions are bullish [2]. - Expectation: Copper price will remain strong due to inventory and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Global policy easing [3]. -利空: Trade - war escalation [3]. Spot - Information on local middle - prices, price changes, and inventory types and quantities is provided, but specific data is not fully filled in [6]. 期现价差 - Not detailed in the report Exchange Inventory - On October 13, copper inventories decreased by 50 to 139350 tons, and SHFE copper inventories increased by 14656 tons to 109690 tons compared to last week [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not detailed in the report Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state [20]. - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024 [22].