来源：中信证券研究 文|明明 余经纬 陈炳丞 8月底以来黄金价格迅速上涨，除了此前关注的长期因素，近期美联储降息预期不断升温、美国政府关 门催化避险交易、委内瑞拉方向的地缘政治扰动可能驱动短期快速上行。我们认为尽管这些短期因素终 会消退，但基本面的长期利多难以改变，未来展望仍然乐观。更新的模型显示中性假设下明年Q1金价 有望超过4500美元/盎司。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 ▍8月底以来黄金表现强劲。 自8月27日至10月8日，伦敦现货黄金价格从3376美元/盎司上行至4040美元/盎司，涨幅高达19.7%。此 前我们的外发报告《大类资产观察黄金价值系列—黄金市场脆弱的多空平衡》（2025-09-01）中提出， 4月底至8月底黄金市场的多空平衡有望被打破，后续黄金价格展望乐观。但这一个多月黄金价格的涨幅 仍然超出我们的预期，我们认为主要有以下的超预期因素： ▍美联储降息预期升温更快，市场充分交易了2025年全年三次降息预期。 在8月杰克逊·霍尔年会以及9月美联储议息会议上，鲍威尔都明显侧重关注劳动力市场风险，释放鸽派 信号。但在发言中鲍威尔仍然保留有谨慎空间。而9月议息会议的点阵图和经 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.4% in August. The basis is neutral, inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bullish. Copper prices opened higher and hit a recent high due to the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia overnight, while waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September [2]. - The logic of recent copper price analysis involves global policy easing and the escalation of trade wars [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral with smelting production cuts and improved manufacturing PMI [2]. - The basis shows a premium of 25 for spot copper over futures [2]. - On September 24, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 144,775 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to last week [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - sloping, indicating a bullish trend [2]. - The main net position is long and increasing, also bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Daily Summary - The report provides a table on inventory data including spot, warehouse receipts, LME inventory, and SHFE inventory, but specific numerical summaries are not further elaborated in the text [5]. Exchange Inventory - Not elaborated further in the text Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [12]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [14]. CFTC - Not elaborated further in the text Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation is expected to be slightly in surplus in 2024 and in tight balance in 2025 [18]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [20].

Group 1: Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September indicates a potential for two more rate cuts within the year, which may support price stabilization in the oil market [1][2] - Geopolitical risks, including sanctions on Russia, the situation in Venezuela, and the Israel-Iran conflict, remain key concerns for the market, although geopolitical premiums may trend weaker [2][3] - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist in the medium term, with a decrease in electricity demand in the Middle East in September potentially leading to increased exports from the region [1][2] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - As of September 18, WTI spot prices were at $63.57, up by $1.2, while Brent spot prices were at $67.8, up by $1.39 [2] - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 9.285 million barrels for the week ending September 12, with a notable drop in gasoline inventories as well [2] - U.S. crude oil production stands at 13.482 million barrels per day, with a reduction in net imports by 88.2% [2] Group 3: Refining and Petrochemical Sector - Short-term demand for refined products during the peak season may be lower than expected, but a decrease in refinery operations could tighten supply [3] - The average refining margin for major domestic refineries increased to 922.68 yuan/ton, up by 55.63 yuan/ton, while margins for Shandong refineries decreased to 204.74 yuan/ton, down by 73.48 yuan/ton [3] - Polyester sector shows weak demand with a decline in profitability for various types of polyester yarn, indicating pressure on pricing [3][4] Group 4: Olefins Market - The domestic ethylene market price averaged 7085 yuan/ton, down by 145 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.01% decrease [4] - The propylene market in Shandong saw a decrease in average transaction prices to 6625 yuan/ton, down by 75 yuan/ton, indicating limited short-term support for demand [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, influenced by geopolitical and fundamental factors, crude oil prices rose first and then fell, continuing the previous wide - range oscillation pattern. Geopolitical disturbances and potential supply tightening concerns provided intermittent upward momentum, while OPEC+ considering another production increase added supply pressure and suppressed prices. In the short term, the fundamental contradictions of crude oil are not prominent. The expectation of supply surplus in the fourth quarter weighs on prices, but it has not yet been reflected in inventories due to the current peak demand season in the Northern Hemisphere. Geopolitical factors cause only short - term disturbances and cannot form a trend. It is expected that the wide - range oscillation will continue. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ production meeting and the situation between the US and Venezuela. The recommended trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $60 - $65 per barrel [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market News**: OPEC+ will consider another production increase at the Sunday meeting; the Fed's "Beige Book" shows price increases in all regions with most reporting "moderate or slight" inflation; US President Trump hinted at second and third - stage oil sanctions against Russia [7]. - **Key Data**: US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels (expected a decrease of 2.031 million barrels, previous value was a decrease of 2.392 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels (previous value was a decrease of 0.838 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.509 million barrels (previous value was an increase of 0.776 million barrels) [7]. - **Main Viewpoints**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical and fundamental factors, showing a wide - range oscillation. The recommended trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $60 - $65 per barrel [8]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Side Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances and shale oil cost support [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Fading expectation of the consumption peak season and OPEC+'s planned production increase [11]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **OPEC+ Potential Production Increase**: OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production at the Sunday meeting, which means starting to lift the second - layer production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day (1.6% of global demand), one year earlier than planned. If production is increased in September, it will strengthen the expectation of supply surplus and may push oil prices to test previous lows. If the status quo is maintained, oil prices may recover, but the rebound space is limited [14]. - **Fed's "Beige Book" and Related Data**: The Fed's "Beige Book" shows price increases in all regions, with fewer mentions of inflation and a decrease in mentions of "slowdown". US July JOLTs job openings were 7.181 million, lower than expected, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased. US August ADP employment increased by 0.054 million, lower than expected. Fed official Christopher Waller released "dovish" remarks, suggesting starting a rate cut at the next meeting [15]. - **Geopolitical Uncertainty**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict has escalated, with Russia launching large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine. European countries plan to send troops to Ukraine, and Israel's military actions in the Middle East have also intensified, causing short - term disturbances to oil prices [16]. 3.4 Data Analysis - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week ending August 29, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.016 million barrels per day to 13.423 million barrels per day. Although production decreased last week, there are signs of a rebound, increasing supply pressure [19]. - **US Oil Drilling Rigs**: As of the week ending August 29, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 412, an increase of 1 from the previous period. The decline in the number of drilling rigs has slowed down, and it is expected to remain at a low level as the current oil price is below the shale oil profit range [21]. - **Demand**: US crude oil consumption demand decreased by 0.195 million barrels per day to 19.82 million barrels per day as of the week ending August 29, mainly due to a decrease in refinery operating rates. Gasoline demand increased by 0.1447 million barrels per day to 10.0984 million barrels per day. US refinery operating rates decreased to 94.3% as of the week ending August 29. In China, as of September 5, the operating rate of major refineries was 81.59% (a 0.19 - percentage - point increase), and the operating rate of independent refineries was 60.02% (a 1.3 - percentage - point increase). The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries decreased by 133.8 yuan/ton to 661.86 yuan/ton, and that of independent refineries decreased by 41.72 yuan/ton to 188.11 yuan/ton [25][27][33]. - **Inventory**: US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2.415 million barrels as of the week ending August 29, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.509 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels, while gasoline inventory decreased by 3.795 million barrels [43][47]. - **Crack Spread**: As of September 3, the US crude oil crack spread was $21.99 per barrel, showing a recovery and indicating a continued warming of US refined oil consumption [48]. 3.5 Future Market Judgment - This week, crude oil prices showed a wide - range oscillation. Geopolitical factors provided intermittent support, while OPEC+'s potential production increase suppressed prices. In the short term, the influencing factors are mixed, and it is difficult to form a continuous driving force. If OPEC+ implements a new round of production increase, oil prices may test the annual low. If the status quo is maintained, oil prices may recover, but the rebound space is limited. Attention should be paid to the $60 per barrel support level of WTI crude oil [51].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed, and the July Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 79,560 with a basis of 370, indicating a premium over the futures, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 1,100 to 156,100 tons on August 27, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 81,698 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2]. - It is expected that with inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, the contradictions between long and short are not prominent, and copper prices will fluctuate [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The analysis of copper's fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trend, and main positions leads to a view of neutral to bullish factors, and an expected fluctuating copper price [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not fully elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply - demand balance of 0.11 million tons [22]. Other Data - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. - The processing fee has declined [16].

Report's Core View - Copper price is expected to be short - term oscillating and slightly stronger due to inventory increase, geopolitical disturbances, off - season consumption pressure, and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The factors considered include a neutral fundamental situation, a neutral basis, a neutral inventory situation, a bullish trend on the disk, bullish major positions, and other elements [2]. Industry Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and scrap copper policies have been relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, showing a neutral situation [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 79360, and the basis is - 330, indicating a discount to the futures, which is a neutral situation [2]. Inventory Analysis - On August 22, copper inventory decreased by 375 to 155975 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4663 tons to 81698 tons compared with last week, presenting a neutral situation. Also, bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [2][14]. Disk Analysis - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, showing a bullish trend [2]. Major Position Analysis - The major net positions are long, but the long positions are decreasing, which is a bullish sign [2]. Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [20][22]. Other Analysis - Processing fees are falling, and the logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3][16].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors, with the price expected to undergo oscillatory adjustments. The fundamentals are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production while the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the July manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%. The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, also indicating a neutral situation. Inventory levels are neutral, with an increase in overall copper inventory on August 21 and a rise in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The market trend is bearish as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is moving downward, but the net long position of the main players is decreasing, showing a bullish tendency. Overall, factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season contribute to the price adjustment [2]. 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy is relaxed, and the July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 78,745 with a basis of 205, showing a premium of the spot over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 21, the copper inventory increased by 0 to 156,350 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons compared to last week, being neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is moving downward, suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - **Main Players' Positions**: The main players have a net long position, but the long position is decreasing, showing a bullish tendency [2]. - **Expectation**: The copper price will experience oscillatory adjustments due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Domestic policy easing [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Escalation of the trade war [3]. 3.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 3.4 Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows that in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [20][22].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The basis shows a slight premium, inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward - sloping 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. Considering factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Neutral, with smelting production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policies, and a decline in July's manufacturing PMI [2]. - **Basis**: Neutral, with a spot price of 78,685 and a basis of 45, showing a premium over futures [2]. - **Inventory**: Neutral, with an increase of 1,200 tons in copper inventory on August 20th to 156,350 tons, and an increase of 4,428 tons in SHFE copper inventory from the previous week to 86,361 tons [2]. - **Market Trend**: Bearish, with the closing price below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average moving downward [2]. - **Main Positions**: Bullish, with net long main positions and an increase in long positions [2]. - **Expectation**: Copper prices will fluctuate and adjust due to factors like the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak off - season consumption [2]. 2.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war are mentioned, but specific impacts are not detailed [3]. 2.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons from the previous week to 86,361 tons on August 20th [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 2.4 Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. 2.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [20][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market is influenced by multiple factors. The fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being loosened. The PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The basis shows a slight premium of the spot over the futures, also neutral. The inventory situation is mixed, with a decrease in overall copper inventory on August 8 but an increase in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - sloping 20 - day moving average, and the net long position of the main players is increasing, presenting a bullish signal. Overall, due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cut, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises cut production, scrap - copper policy is loosened, and the July PMI is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 78505, basis is 15, showing a premium of the spot over the futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 8, copper inventory decreased by 150 to 155850 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 9390 tons to 81933 tons compared to last week; neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main players have a net long position, and the long position is increasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cut, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will fluctuate and adjust [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多 and 利空**: No specific content provided for利多 and 利空, but the logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Inventory - related - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 9390 tons to 81933 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a supply - demand balance of 110,000 tons in 2024 [20][22].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View The copper market is influenced by multiple factors. The fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The 7 - month manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%. The base - difference is neutral with a spot price of 78325 and a base - difference of - 75. Inventory shows mixed trends, with an increase in overall copper inventory on August 1st but a decrease in SHFE copper inventory last week. The market is bearish on the disk as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward. However, the main position is net long and increasing. Given the slowdown of Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and pressure on off - season consumption, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. Smelting enterprises cut production, scrap - copper policy is relaxed, and the July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month [2]. - **Base - difference**: Neutral. Spot price is 78325, base - difference is - 75, indicating a discount to futures [2]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. On August 1st, copper inventory increased by 3550 to 141750 tons, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72543 tons last week [2]. - **Disk**: Bearish. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: Bullish. The main net position is long and increasing [2]. - **Expectation**: Copper prices will fluctuate and adjust due to slow Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and pressure on off - season consumption [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: Domestic policy easing [3]. - **利空**: Trade war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 110000 tons [22]. Other Information - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. - **Processing Fee**: Processing fees have declined [16].