交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 矿端紧张 风险： 自然灾害 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，12月制造业采购经理指数 （PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间；偏多。 2、基差：现货100645，基差-705，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：1月6日铜库存减2775至142550吨，上期所铜库存较上周增33639吨至145342吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，高位大幅 波动，注意仓位控制 ...

现货供应偏紧叠加地缘政治扰动 对市场形成带动 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 月内来看，华南地区新增惠州立拓、广州石化、海南乙烯JPP、广西鸿谊等装置停车检修，且中化泉州 双线、茂名石化2PP仍处于停车检修状态，整体检修损失量仍处相对高位，据数据统计，（20251226- 20260101）当周华南地区周度产量为18.98万吨，环比降低2.03个百分点，此外中上游企业多数销售计划 已完成，且区域内拉丝、高熔纤维、薄壁注塑等现货资源供应偏紧，因此持货方挺价意愿较强，加之元 旦节前下游入市适量补货，刚需采购较为稳定，对市场形成一定支撑。节假期间拉美某国家原油出口受 限对原油的影响较大，成本提升的预期强，对PP价格形成提振，市场价格随之小涨10-40元/吨，但下游 对涨价后资源观望居多，少量刚需补货，市场实盘无明显放量对价格涨势形成一定抑制。 卓创资讯PP分析师 相欣妍 【导语】：12月下旬以来，华南地区在现货资源流通偏紧加之刚需稳定的支撑下，市场表现相对坚挺， 且节中地缘政治波动，市场对上游原料价格走强存有预期，业者挺价意愿较强，市场短期或延续偏暖运 行态势，但中下旬来看，供需基 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，12月制造业采购经理指数 （PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间；中性。 2、基差：现货99280，基差1190，升水期货； 偏多。 3、库存：12月31日铜库存减2100至145325吨，上期所铜库存较上周增33639吨至145342吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，高位大幅 波动，注意仓位控制 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货93540，基差-490，贴水期货； 偏空。 3、库存：12月23日铜库存增825至158575吨，上期所铜库存较上周增6416吨至95805吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，多翻空；偏空。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，短期高位 运行 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 ...

当地时间12月23日，黄金和白银继续双双大涨并刷新历史新高。现货白银23日收盘大涨3.42%，首次突破每盎司70美元； 现货黄金则收涨0.92%，在创下逾一个月来最大单日涨幅后继续走高。在地缘政治扰动不断，以及美元走弱、美联储进一 步降息的预期推动下，今年以来，金价累计涨幅超过70%，银价年内涨约140%，涨势更为凌厉。 北京时间12月24日早盘，金银价格进一步上行，现货黄金首次站上4500美元/盎司，现货白银则最高触及71.869美元/盎司。 每日经济新闻综合公开信息 12月23日晚间，广期所发布多项风控措施公告，涉及铂、钯、碳酸锂及多晶硅等多个活跃品种，通过上调手续费、保证 金、涨跌停板幅度及收紧交易限额等方式，进一步强化市场风险管理。 根据公告，经研究决定，对铂、钯、碳酸锂期货相关合约的交易手续费标准、涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金标准作如下调 整： 自2025年12月25日交易时起，铂期货PT2606合约、钯期货PD2606合约的交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之二点 五，日内平今仓交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之二点五；碳酸锂期货LC2605合约的交易手续费标准调整为成交金 额的万分之三点二，日内平 ...

每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货92480，基差-700，贴水期货； 偏空。 3、库存：12月19日铜库存减3875至160400吨，上期所铜库存较上周增6416吨至95805吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高， 高位运行 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政 ...

12月15日，周一，亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡微涨，站稳4300关口并有延续上周上涨的趋势。上周五 （12月12日）金价表现较为出色，现货黄金上涨0.48%，收报每盎司4300美元附近，盘中最高触及4353 美元/盎司，这是自10月21日以来的最高水平，距离历史新高仅一步之遥，不过好景不长，黄金多头最 终没有坚守住，黄金后半夜空头直接发力，黄金大跳水，快速下跌近100美金，不过黄金多头探底之 后，下方承接力也还是很强，再次进行强势反抽，多头还是在不断角逐，那么黄金多头能否再次崛起？ 上周，黄金整体呈现震荡上涨走势，周一震荡收阴，周二到周五4连阳上涨，周线最终收出一根阳线。 上周全球金融与产业市场围绕"美联储政策转向、贵金属行情爆发、多国央行政策分化、地缘政治扰动 及科技产业变革"五大主线展开，各类资产与关键事件呈现显著联动效应。本周，全球金融市场将迎 来"央行核弹群+数据双雷"的密集考验，英、欧、日三大央行利率决议接踵而至，非农与CPI数据牵动 市场神经，美元、金银、美股等资产走势充满不确定性。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文 ...

本周全球金融与产业市场围绕"美联储政策转向、贵金属行情爆发、多国央行政策分化、地缘政治扰动及科技产业变革"五大主线展开，各类资产与关键事件 呈现显著联动效应。 下周，全球金融市场将迎来"央行核弹群+数据双雷"的密集考验，美联储降息遭鹰派反对，英、欧、日三大央行利率决议接踵而至，非农与CPI数据牵动市 场神经，美元、金银、美股等资产走势充满不确定性。 一、基本面 本周，黄金整体呈现震荡上涨走势，周一震荡收阴，周二到周五4连阳上涨，周线最终收出一根阳线。 英国央行：周四20:00公布利率决议及纪要。11月会议利率不变但投票5:4（4人支持降息），当前市场预期本周降息概率达90%，且已定价2026年12月前再降 25基点。若降息伴鸽派信号，或施压英镑。 欧洲央行：周四21:15公布利率决议，21:45拉加德开新闻发布会。此前维持利率不变并强调政策"良好"，拉加德提及上修GDP预测，施纳贝尔称下一步或加 息（短期不会），市场预期本周按兵不动，且计入明年年底前加息36%概率，若重申乐观或助欧元走强。 日本央行：周五（时间待定）公布利率决议，14:30植田和男开新闻发布会。市场预期加息概率75%，高盛认为单次加息难改日元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ suspending the production increase plan in Q1 2026 will relieve supply - side pressure to some extent, but supply surplus will remain the main trading logic as demand enters the off - season. Geopolitical factors will cause fluctuations in the oil price. The market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $55 - $65 per barrel [51] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In November, the crude oil market showed a weak and oscillating pattern under the game of long and short factors. At the beginning of the month, the suspension of the production increase plan in Q1 2026 by OPEC+ and sanctions on Russian oil companies supported the oil price. However, in the middle and late of the month, the weakening global crude oil outlook in the OPEC+ monthly report and the rising expectation of geopolitical easing suppressed the market, and the supply surplus expectation was the main trading logic [7] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ will increase production in December and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. Eight countries will increase the production quota by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The suspension of production increase can relieve supply pressure in the short - term, but OPEC+ still aims to compete for market share through production increase in the long - term [11][12] - **OPEC Monthly Report**: OPEC's expectation for the global crude oil market has shifted from balance to surplus, with a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day currently compared to a previous shortage expectation of 400,000 barrels per day. The supply growth expectation of non - OPEC countries in 2025 has been raised by 110,000 barrels per day, and the demand for OPEC crude oil in 2026 has been lowered [12][15] - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectation**: Fed officials have made dovish statements, and the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December has risen to 85%. The labor market shows a "split" situation, and the Fed's latest "Beige Book" indicates that consumer spending decline is the main drag on the US economy [13] - **Geopolitical Factors**: A 28 - point peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict was proposed, then reduced to 19 points. Trump said the peace agreement was "very close to being reached", but Russia believes the 19 - point plan does not meet its interests. Short - term geopolitical easing expectation has risen, but there are still large differences between the two sides [14] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **OPEC Production**: In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ production in October was 43.02 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 73,000 barrels per day. The supply - side pressure has increased significantly as demand enters the off - season [17] - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of November 21, the US weekly EIA crude oil production was 13.814 million barrels per day, an increase of 170,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last month. Supported by technological progress and policy, US crude oil production is expected to remain stable, but the growth rate will slow down [20] - **US Oil Drilling Rigs**: As of November 21, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 419, an increase of 2 compared to the previous statistical period and the same as the same period last month. It is expected to remain at a low level [22] - **Demand Side** - **US Manufacturing**: In October, the US ISM manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.7, while the Chicago PMI rebounded. The contraction of the manufacturing industry has restricted crude oil demand to some extent [24] - **US Refinery Utilization Rate**: As of November 21, the US refinery utilization rate was 92.3%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7 percentage points. It is expected to boost crude oil consumption seasonally [28] - **China's Manufacturing**: In October, China's manufacturing PMI decreased and remained below the boom - bust line, with weak demand and significant differentiation between supply and demand. Small and medium - sized enterprises face greater pressure [36] - **China's Refinery Utilization Rate**: As of November 20, the utilization rate of domestic major refineries was 75.69%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points compared to the same period last month. The utilization rate of local independent refineries was 62.97%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points. Overall, domestic crude oil consumption faces short - term weakening pressure [40] - **Inventory** - **US EIA Crude Oil Inventory**: As of November 21, the US weekly EIA crude oil inventory was 2.774 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 498,000 barrels. With the increase in refinery utilization rate and the slowdown in production growth, the inventory is expected to decline seasonally [45] - **Cushing Crude Oil Inventory and Gasoline Inventory**: As of November 21, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 68,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory was 2.099 million barrels. The Cushing inventory has remained stable at a low level in recent years, and the oil inventory has entered the accumulation stage [49]

Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the crude oil market, covering macro - analysis, multi - empty focus, supply - demand analysis, and future market judgment [8]. - This week, the oil price first rose and then fell, showing an overall weak and volatile trend. The influencing factors of crude oil are mixed. Geopolitical disturbances provided support for the oil price at the beginning of the week, while the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement and the expectation of supply surplus put pressure on the oil price [8]. - It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $56 - 61 per barrel [9]. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement and refined oil entering the off - season of demand [11]. Macro Analysis - The US and Russia are discussing a framework plan to end the conflict. The plan requires Ukraine to make major territorial concessions to Russia, but the Russian side says it has not received relevant information through official channels. Ukrainian President Zelensky has received a peace plan draft from the US [12]. - The discussion of the framework plan for ending the conflict between the US and Russia makes the market expect the US to relax sanctions on the Russian energy sector, which drives the oil price down. However, considering the repeatability of geopolitics, the sustainability of the geopolitical easing drive is not strong [12]. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of the week ending November 14, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 28,000 barrels per day to 13.834 million barrels per day. Since August, US crude oil production has rebounded month - on - month, and there is still a probability of further increase [13]. - As of the week ending November 14, the total number of US oil rigs was 417, the same as the previous value. It is expected to remain at a low level this year due to factors such as the contraction of US oil capital expenditure, the decline of resource grade, and policy adjustment [15]. Demand - As of the week ending November 14, the operating rate of US refineries was 90%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, indicating that US refineries have ended the seasonal maintenance phase and are expected to drive the recovery of crude oil consumption [17]. - As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil implied demand decreased by 843,000 barrels per day month - on - month, while the implied demand for motor gasoline production increased by 189,000 barrels per day [24]. - In October, the operating rate of 16 European refineries was 80.74%, a 3 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, and it is expected to recover by the end of the fourth quarter [25]. - As of November 20, the operating rate of domestic major refineries was 75.69%, a 2.62 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period, entering the seasonal maintenance phase. The operating rate of domestic independent refineries was 62.97%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [30]. - As of November 21, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 854.72 yuan per ton, a 150.6 - yuan increase from the previous statistical period. The comprehensive refining profit of domestic independent refineries was 183.13 yuan per ton, a 6.54 - yuan increase from the previous period [35]. Inventory - As of the week ending November 14, the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels, and the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 533,000 barrels. The decrease in US crude oil production and the increase in refinery operating rate led to a month - on - month decrease in EIA crude oil inventory [42]. - As of the week ending November 14, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 698,000 barrels, and the EIA gasoline inventory increased by 2.327 million barrels [46]. Crack Spread - As of November 19, the crack spread of low - sulfur crude oil in Louisiana, US Gulf, was $24.47 per barrel, showing a month - on - month decline. Downstream consumer demand is still relatively strong, which supports the crack spread to some extent [47]. Future Market Judgment - The expectation of crude oil supply surplus remains the main pressure source in the market. In the short term, the oil price may continue to be under pressure. Although the oil price is expected to show an overall weak and volatile pattern, considering the repeatability of geopolitics, the sustainability of the geopolitical easing drive is not strong [51].