Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the crude oil market, covering macro - analysis, multi - empty focus, supply - demand analysis, and future market judgment [8]. - This week, the oil price first rose and then fell, showing an overall weak and volatile trend. The influencing factors of crude oil are mixed. Geopolitical disturbances provided support for the oil price at the beginning of the week, while the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement and the expectation of supply surplus put pressure on the oil price [8]. - It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $56 - 61 per barrel [9]. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement and refined oil entering the off - season of demand [11]. Macro Analysis - The US and Russia are discussing a framework plan to end the conflict. The plan requires Ukraine to make major territorial concessions to Russia, but the Russian side says it has not received relevant information through official channels. Ukrainian President Zelensky has received a peace plan draft from the US [12]. - The discussion of the framework plan for ending the conflict between the US and Russia makes the market expect the US to relax sanctions on the Russian energy sector, which drives the oil price down. However, considering the repeatability of geopolitics, the sustainability of the geopolitical easing drive is not strong [12]. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of the week ending November 14, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 28,000 barrels per day to 13.834 million barrels per day. Since August, US crude oil production has rebounded month - on - month, and there is still a probability of further increase [13]. - As of the week ending November 14, the total number of US oil rigs was 417, the same as the previous value. It is expected to remain at a low level this year due to factors such as the contraction of US oil capital expenditure, the decline of resource grade, and policy adjustment [15]. Demand - As of the week ending November 14, the operating rate of US refineries was 90%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, indicating that US refineries have ended the seasonal maintenance phase and are expected to drive the recovery of crude oil consumption [17]. - As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil implied demand decreased by 843,000 barrels per day month - on - month, while the implied demand for motor gasoline production increased by 189,000 barrels per day [24]. - In October, the operating rate of 16 European refineries was 80.74%, a 3 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, and it is expected to recover by the end of the fourth quarter [25]. - As of November 20, the operating rate of domestic major refineries was 75.69%, a 2.62 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period, entering the seasonal maintenance phase. The operating rate of domestic independent refineries was 62.97%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [30]. - As of November 21, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 854.72 yuan per ton, a 150.6 - yuan increase from the previous statistical period. The comprehensive refining profit of domestic independent refineries was 183.13 yuan per ton, a 6.54 - yuan increase from the previous period [35]. Inventory - As of the week ending November 14, the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels, and the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 533,000 barrels. The decrease in US crude oil production and the increase in refinery operating rate led to a month - on - month decrease in EIA crude oil inventory [42]. - As of the week ending November 14, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 698,000 barrels, and the EIA gasoline inventory increased by 2.327 million barrels [46]. Crack Spread - As of November 19, the crack spread of low - sulfur crude oil in Louisiana, US Gulf, was $24.47 per barrel, showing a month - on - month decline. Downstream consumer demand is still relatively strong, which supports the crack spread to some extent [47]. Future Market Judgment - The expectation of crude oil supply surplus remains the main pressure source in the market. In the short term, the oil price may continue to be under pressure. Although the oil price is expected to show an overall weak and volatile pattern, considering the repeatability of geopolitics, the sustainability of the geopolitical easing drive is not strong [51].

Report Summary - The report is a weekly crude oil report from AVIC Futures dated November 14, 2025 [2] - This week, oil prices first rose and then fell, showing an overall volatile and weak trend. The influencing factors of crude oil are mixed. Geopolitical disturbances provided support for oil prices at the beginning of the week, but the OPEC monthly report's shift in market expectations from tight to surplus intensified concerns about oversupply, causing sharp price fluctuations. In the short term, the expectation of oversupply is the main pressure on the market, but OPEC+'s suspension of the production increase plan for the first quarter of next year, strong demand, and geopolitical uncertainties provide support. The report expects crude oil to maintain a wide - range volatile trend [7] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $57 - 62 per barrel [8] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors include geopolitical disturbances [10] - Bearish factors include the shift in OPEC market expectations and EIA inventory accumulation [10] Macroeconomic Analysis OPEC Report - OPEC's latest monthly report on November 12 shows that the global crude oil market expectation has shifted from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC supply growth expectations for this year are raised by 110,000 barrels per day, and the demand for OPEC crude in 2026 is lowered, indicating a pessimistic view on next year's demand [11] - In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day, and OPEC+'s production was 43.02 million barrels per day, a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day from September, showing a slowdown in the pace of OPEC+ production increase [11] - The global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 is 1.3 million barrels per day, and for 2026 is 1.38 million barrels per day. From January to September this year, global oil inventories increased by 304 million barrels, with about 156 million barrels being marine crude oil [11] Geopolitical Situation - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with large - scale attacks on Ukrainian military and energy facilities. Short - term negotiations are unlikely as Russia is ready for talks but Ukraine has stopped relevant dialogues until the end of this year [12] - The US - Venezuela relationship remains uncertain, with the Trump administration not planning to launch an attack in Venezuela currently [12] - The global geopolitical situation is complex and uncertain. Although it has not caused substantial losses to global crude oil supply in the short term, it affects market sentiment and increases oil price volatility [12] Data Analysis Supply Side - As of the week ending November 7, US domestic crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 211,000 barrels. There is a probability of further increase in production, and supply pressure will gradually emerge as the peak consumption season for refined oil ends [13] - As of the week ending November 7, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 414, the same as the previous value. Due to factors such as capital expenditure contraction, resource grade decline, and policy adjustment, it is expected to remain at a low level this year [15] Demand Side - As of the week ending October 31, the US refinery utilization rate was 86%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points. The decline rate has slowed down, and it may reach a seasonal inflection point [18] - As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil demand decreased by 843,000 barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline demand increased by 189,000 barrels per day [22] - In September, the refinery utilization rate of 16 European countries was 82.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.48 percentage points, and it is expected to face downward pressure at the beginning of the fourth quarter [24] - As of November 13, the operating rate of domestic state - owned refineries was 78.31%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points from the previous period, entering the seasonal maintenance stage. The operating rate of local independent refineries was 61.97%, a decrease of 0.97 percentage points. The operating rate of state - owned refineries is expected to decline, while local refineries are expected to operate stably [30] - As of November 14, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic state - owned refineries was 704.12 yuan/ton, a recovery of 175.13 yuan/ton from the previous period, ending the continuous decline. The comprehensive refining profit of local independent refineries was 176.59 yuan/ton, a recovery of 41.64 yuan/ton [34] Inventory - As of the week ending November 7, the US EIA crude oil inventory was 6.413 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 1.96 million barrels and the previous value of 5.202 million barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 798,000 barrels, compared with the previous value of 498,000 barrels. EIA crude oil inventory may reach a phased inflection point [41] - As of the week ending November 7, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 346,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory was 205 million barrels, a decrease of 9.4 million barrels from the previous period [46] Crack Spread - As of November 12, the crack spread of low - sulfur crude oil in Louisiana, US Gulf was $24.76 per barrel, showing a continuous increase. It indicates that although the refinery utilization rate has decreased, downstream consumption demand is still strong, which supports the crack spread. Attention should be paid to whether refineries will increase the utilization rate due to profit incentives [47] Market Outlook - The factors influencing crude oil remain mixed. OPEC+'s suspension of the production increase plan, geopolitical factors, and shale oil costs support the market, but OPEC's market expectation shift intensifies concerns about oversupply. The market lacks a clear driving force and is expected to continue a wide - range volatile trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $57 - 62 per barrel [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global oil market is facing an increasingly imbalanced supply - demand situation, with supply growing and demand growth being mediocre compared to historical standards. The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply in 2026, and the price of crude oil will be volatile in the short - term [2][8]. - The cancellation of India's domestic certification for 14 chemical imports will bring direct incremental exports for some chemicals, but the exact increase needs further exploration. A refinery accident in South China will lead to a reduction in the supply of aromatics, olefins, and refined oil [3]. - Most energy and chemical products are expected to maintain a volatile and consolidating trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - **Market News**: Trump lifted restrictions on oil exploration in the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve. EIA data showed that the US continued to accumulate crude oil inventories last week, and the IEA月报 predicted an increase in the oversupply of global oil in 2026 [8]. - **Main Logic**: The oversupply situation is expected to intensify in 2026. Although the refined oil inventory pressure has eased and the crack spread is strong, providing phased support for the demand side, the supply pressure remains difficult to refute. If Russian oil supply does not decrease, the oil price may return to the oversupply pattern [8]. 3.2 Situation of Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Asphalt**: Shandong's spot prices have stabilized, and the futures price is volatile. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: News of the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict drove the futures price down. The supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease, but the demand is still weak [11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakening of refined oil led to a decline in low - sulfur fuel oil. It is facing supply increase and demand decline, and its valuation is low, following the trend of crude oil [13]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is in a volatile and consolidating state [30]. - **Urea**: Downstream purchases on dips, and the futures price is volatile. It is under high - inventory pressure and coal - cost support [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Although there are more device disturbances and marginal improvement in supply - demand, the oversupply pattern cannot be reversed, and the price will remain in a low - level range [22][24]. - **PX**: India's cancellation of BIS and the speculation of the US - Asia aromatics arbitrage window drove PX to strengthen against cost. It is expected to be volatile and warm in the short - term [16]. - **PTA**: India's cancellation of BIS certification is beneficial to overseas export expectations. The price will follow the cost and be volatile and warm in the short - term [17][18]. - **Short - fiber**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification has limited impact on short - fiber, and the profit is expected to be compressed under passive following [26][27]. - **Bottle - chip**: The price fluctuation has slightly increased, and the trading atmosphere has recovered. It follows the trend of upstream raw materials [28]. - **Propylene**: Downstream trading volume has increased, and PL is volatile [36]. - **PP**: After continuous decline, it has slightly stabilized. Attention should be paid to the change in maintenance [35]. - **Plastic**: The chemical sector has slightly stabilized, and plastic follows the trend [34]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification may boost sentiment, but the actual export impact is limited. PVC is weakly stable [37]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is in a volatile state [38]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various energy and chemical products have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for future prices [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different products also show different trends, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [41]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different energy and chemical products have changed, which is affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost [42].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have recently experienced a significant drop, reaching a four-year low, but are expected to rise again, potentially surpassing 7 yuan per liter, impacting consumers' wallets [1][3]. Price Fluctuations - The recent adjustment in oil prices is expected to increase the cost by approximately 0.16 to 0.18 yuan per liter, translating to an additional 8 to 9 yuan for a full tank of 50 liters [1][3]. - Throughout the year, there have been 21 rounds of oil price adjustments, with 6 instances of price freezes, 9 decreases, and 6 increases, resulting in an overall decline of over 700 yuan per ton for gasoline [3]. Regional Price Variations - Current gasoline prices in various regions include: - Beijing: 6.84 yuan (92), 7.39 yuan (95) - Shanghai: 6.80 yuan (92), 7.24 yuan (95) - Jiangsu: 6.81 yuan (92), 7.25 yuan (95) - Other regions also show similar pricing trends, with predictions indicating a rise towards the 7 yuan mark for 92 gasoline in several areas [3][4]. Market Influences - The fluctuations in oil prices are primarily driven by international crude oil prices, which recently rebounded from around 60 dollars to approximately 62 dollars per barrel. Analysts suggest that if prices stabilize above 62 dollars, they could rise further to 65-67 dollars [4]. - Factors such as global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations contribute to the volatility in oil prices [4]. Consumer Sentiment - The rapid changes in oil prices create a perception of unpredictability among consumers, with price increases often occurring swiftly compared to decreases, leading to frustration regarding the transparency and frequency of adjustments [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical sector, with various indices showing significant weekly gains, such as the oil and gas resource index increasing by 3.80% and the oil and gas extraction service index rising by 10.04% [9][10]. Core Insights - Oil prices have risen primarily due to geopolitical factors, particularly the U.S. sanctions on Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukeoil, which have raised concerns about short-term supply reductions [15][17]. - The report suggests that the actual impact of sanctions may be limited, as historical data indicates that trade flow is more affected than actual supply levels [17]. - The report highlights that the U.S. crude oil inventory has decreased, with a net import increase, and the active oil rig count remains stable at 418 [15][17]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The petrochemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.45%, with various sub-sectors showing positive performance [9]. - The average operating load of domestic refineries was reported at 80.89%, a slight decrease from the previous week [3]. Oil Sector - As of October 23, WTI crude was priced at $61.79, up by $4.33, while Brent crude was at $65.98, up by $3.90 [15]. - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventory by 961,000 barrels, with gasoline inventory down by 214,700 barrels [15]. Refining Sector - The average refining margin for major refineries was reported at 512.62 yuan/ton, down by 35.2 yuan/ton from the previous period [3]. - The report indicates a weak domestic gasoline market, with average operating loads for Shandong independent refineries at 50.04% [3]. Polyester Sector - The report notes an increase in raw material prices, leading to a slight uptick in replenishment willingness among weaving enterprises [3]. - The average profit level for polyester filament POY150D was reported at 96.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.44 yuan/ton from the previous week [3]. Olefin Sector - The domestic ethylene market average price was reported at 6,370 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 15 yuan/ton [3]. - The report anticipates continued weak consolidation in the ethylene market due to negative downstream profits [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the analysis of various energy and chemical products, including their market logic, technical analysis, and trading strategies. It suggests waiting for the end of the crude oil rebound and looking for opportunities in the low prices of weak energy and chemical products during the crude oil rebound. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: The US Treasury's sanctions on two major Russian oil companies have shifted the short - term logic to geopolitical disturbances. After the market digests the short - term geopolitical benefits, it will return to supply - demand drivers [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it continued to rebound with reduced positions, but the trading volume was insufficient after the intraday high, closing with a long upper shadow. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the end of the rebound, and the short - term support is at the 459 level [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to cover short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. 2. Benzene Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved due to increased maintenance and a small decline in production, the port inventory, a characteristic of hazardous chemicals, is still slowly accumulating and is at a sky - high level year - on - year. There is a risk of price collapse under the pressure of over - inventory. The market has already priced in some expectations, so no short - chasing is recommended [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it tested the pressure from a high position, then moved lower and closed down with a large increase in positions. The short - term downward structure remains unchanged. After the contract change, the short - term pressure level for the December contract is at the 6630 level [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level and consider shorting again if there is a rebound [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: The weather in Southeast Asia has improved, and the supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. The cost support is weakening, and the pressure of slow de - stocking of the large domestic inventory remains high [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term pressure level is at the 15450 level [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with a stop - profit reference at the 15450 level [7]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is not significant. The tire enterprises' high - inventory pressure remains, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of butadiene may decline rapidly, driving the synthetic rubber price down [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day. Pay attention to the suppression of the pressure level, with the short - term pressure at the 11300 level [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with a stop - profit reference at the 11300 level [11]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation of PX improved slightly last week, but the overall high - supply pattern remains unchanged. Its main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the support at the 6425 level [13]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see at the hourly level [13]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: Under the expectation of new device production and restart, the supply pressure of PTA is still large, and the demand remains flat. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term support at the 4470 level [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see at the hourly level [16]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The expected commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant in mid - October will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the overseas demand is also low. The cost - side pressure is brought by the decline of crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term pressure at the 6740 level. There was a reverse - wrapping pattern near the pressure, but the trading volume was insufficient [20]. - **Strategy**: Continue to wait and see at the hourly level [20]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: The monthly - spread structure has strengthened this week, indicating potential long - trading opportunities. Due to seasonal factors, the 01 contract of methanol has some long - trading logic compared with other energy and chemical products. However, the short - term long - trading time has not arrived. The domestic supply is high, and the inventory is difficult to reduce [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, it declined with increased positions, with the short - term pressure at the 2320 level [24]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level cautiously, with the 2320 level on the hourly line as the final stop - profit level. Consider using methanol as a long - position in the hedging strategy after it breaks through the pressure level [24]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: Under the "subsidizing chlorine with alkali" model, the supply of PVC maintains high - level production. The domestic real - estate demand is still low year - on - year, and the social inventory continues to accumulate [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 4800 level [28]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The restart of previously overhauled devices and the expected increase in production capacity have increased the supply pressure. The port inventory has started to accumulate, and the support of low inventory has disappeared [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term support below 4045 [29]. - **Strategy**: Stop - profit on short positions at the hourly level [29]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The expected commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant in mid - October will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the cost - side is affected by the decline of crude oil [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it rebounded with reduced positions and broke through the short - term pressure at the 6940 level. The short - term structure has turned bullish [31]. - **Strategy**: Stop - profit on the remaining short positions at the hourly level [31]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash has intensified. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The market is under downward pressure [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 1260 level [35]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level [35]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply pressure will increase in the medium - term due to the recovery of previously overhauled devices and the commissioning of new devices. The downstream demand is weak, with limited profit in the alumina industry [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure continues. The short - term pressure is at the 2470 level [36]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see after stopping - profit before the holiday, as there is no good entry point currently [36].

Group 1 - The core logic of gold investment is based on three main factors: 1) long-term loosening of the dollar credit system and continuous gold purchases by central banks; 2) potential levels of dollar yields, which are influenced by the state of the U.S. economy; 3) short-term demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical disturbances [1] - Gold ETF funds hold physical gold contracts traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, directly corresponding to the physical gold stored in the exchange's vaults, making investment in gold ETFs equivalent to direct investment in physical gold [1] - The price fluctuations of gold ETFs closely follow the AU9999 spot contracts, which represent domestic gold prices, with a requirement that at least 90% of the fund's assets must be held in physical gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a new high on October 15, with COMEX gold standing strong at $4,200 per ounce after a slight pullback on October 9. The gold ETF (518800) rose by 2.45%, leading the market. The medium-term outlook for gold remains positive, with a recommendation to focus on the gold ETF (518800) [1]. Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Prices - The core logic driving gold prices includes three main factors: (1) long-term weakening of the dollar credit system and ongoing gold purchases by central banks; (2) medium-term potential levels of dollar yields, influenced by the state of the U.S. economy; (3) short-term geopolitical disturbances leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - The potential decline in U.S. dollar yields may further support gold prices. A weaker U.S. economy could lead to lower dollar yields, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus increasing its relative value against the dollar [1]. Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, geopolitical disturbances are likely to persist, which may trigger a surge in gold prices. However, the long-term logic remains solid, suggesting that investors should continue to monitor the situation and consider positioning themselves after any pullbacks [2].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged since late August, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. government shutdown prompting safe-haven trading, and geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Venezuela. Despite short-term factors, the long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic, with projections indicating prices could exceed $4,500 per ounce in Q1 of next year [1][4]. Group 1: Recent Gold Price Performance - From August 27 to October 8, the London spot gold price rose from $3,376 per ounce to $4,040 per ounce, marking a 19.7% increase. This rise exceeded previous expectations due to various unforeseen factors [1]. - The market has fully priced in expectations for three interest rate cuts throughout 2025, with the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points or more increasing from 38.7% to 79.2% during the same period [2]. Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government experienced a shutdown on October 1 due to the failure to finalize the new fiscal year's budget, marking the first shutdown in seven years. This shutdown is expected to last longer than previous instances, leading to increased safe-haven investments in gold [2][3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Despite efforts by the Trump administration to negotiate a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, geopolitical tensions remain high, particularly regarding Venezuela. The U.S. has increased military presence in the Caribbean and has taken aggressive actions against Venezuelan drug trafficking, indicating potential military intervention [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold - The short-term rise in gold prices is attributed to various risk-driven sentiments, with significant inflows into gold ETFs in North America and Europe. However, the fundamental support for gold remains strong due to worsening U.S. federal debt, declining dollar credibility, and increasing gold purchases by global central banks [3]. - Updated models suggest that under neutral assumptions, gold prices could exceed $4,500 per ounce by Q1 2026, with optimistic scenarios projecting prices above $4,800 per ounce [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.4% in August. The basis is neutral, inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bullish. Copper prices opened higher and hit a recent high due to the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia overnight, while waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September [2]. - The logic of recent copper price analysis involves global policy easing and the escalation of trade wars [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral with smelting production cuts and improved manufacturing PMI [2]. - The basis shows a premium of 25 for spot copper over futures [2]. - On September 24, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 144,775 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to last week [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - sloping, indicating a bullish trend [2]. - The main net position is long and increasing, also bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Daily Summary - The report provides a table on inventory data including spot, warehouse receipts, LME inventory, and SHFE inventory, but specific numerical summaries are not further elaborated in the text [5]. Exchange Inventory - Not elaborated further in the text Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [12]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [14]. CFTC - Not elaborated further in the text Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation is expected to be slightly in surplus in 2024 and in tight balance in 2025 [18]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [20].