沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 2、基差：现货79360，基差-330，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：8月22日铜库存减375至155975吨，上期所铜库存较上周减4663吨至81698吨；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，9月美联储降息升温，铜价短期震荡偏强. 近期利多利空分析 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 2、基差：现货78745，基差205，升水期货； 中性。 3、库存：8月21日铜库存增0至156350吨，上期所铜库存较上周增4428吨至86361吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，铜价震荡调整. 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产缓慢 1、美国全面关税超预期。 2、全球经济并不乐观，高铜价会压制下游消费。 3 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 2、基差：现货78685，基差45，升水期货； 中性。 3、库存：8月20日铜库存增1200至156350吨，上期所铜库存较上周增4428吨至86361吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，铜价震荡调整. 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产缓慢 1、美国全面关税超预期。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 2、基差：现货78505，基差15，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：8月8日铜库存减150至155850吨，上期所铜库存较上周增9390吨至81933吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，铜价震荡调整. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 期现价差 数据来源：Wind 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，铜价震荡调整. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 2、基差：现货78325，基差-75，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：8月1日铜库存增3550至141750吨，上期所铜库存较上周减880吨至72543吨；中性。 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 2、基差：现货78535，基差495，升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：7月31日铜库存增1350至138200吨，上期所铜库存较上周减11133吨至74423吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，铜价震荡调整. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a premium over futures, also neutral. Copper inventories increased on July 29, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased last week, which is neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving downward, suggesting a bearish trend. The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a bullish tendency. Considering factors such as the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises cut production, scrap copper policy is relaxed, June manufacturing PMI is 49.5% (unchanged from last month), manufacturing sentiment is stable, neutral [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 78985, basis is 145, premium over futures, neutral [3]. - Inventory: On July 29, copper inventory increased by 225 to 127625 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons last week, neutral [3]. - Disk: Closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average is moving downward, bearish [3]. - Main positions: Main net positions are long but long positions are decreasing, bullish [3]. - Expectation: Fed rate - cuts slow down, inventories rise, geopolitical disturbances remain, off - season consumption is under pressure, copper prices will fluctuate and adjust [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Domestic policy easing [4]. -利空: Trade war escalation [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [21]. - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with stable manufacturing sentiment, a neutral basis, and mixed signals from inventory, price trends, and主力持仓. The copper price is expected to undergo a volatile adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 79100, with a basis of 100, showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 28, copper inventory decreased by 1075 to 127400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [3]. - **Price Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, indicating a bearish trend [3]. - **主力持仓**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, suggesting a bullish trend [3]. - **Expectation**: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will experience a volatile adjustment [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: No specific information provided - **利空**: No specific information provided - **Logic**: Domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [4] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [23]. Other Information - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [15]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are declining [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market presents a complex situation with a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish factors. The copper price is expected to experience oscillatory adjustments due to factors such as a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, ongoing geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment (neutral) [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 79,535, with a basis of 285, showing a premium over futures (neutral) [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, copper inventories increased by 3,700 to 128,475 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 11,133 tons to 74,423 tons compared to the previous week (neutral) [3]. - **Market trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward (bearish) [3]. - **Main positions**: The main net positions are long, and the long positions are increasing (bullish) [3]. - **Expectation**: With a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will undergo oscillatory adjustments [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely factors**: Domestic policy easing and trade - war escalation are the influencing logics, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not elaborated [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation in 2024 shows a slight surplus, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply surplus of 0.11 million tons [23]. Other Information - **Spot**: Information on spot prices includes place, mid - price, price changes, and inventory types, but specific data is not filled in [7]. - **Exchange Inventory**: The report mentions exchange inventory, but no detailed analysis is provided [13]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [15]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are declining [17].

Core Insights - The first half of 2025 saw a "volatile" and "divergent" trend in the international and domestic commodity markets, characterized by mixed performance across different sectors [1][3][8] International Market Overview - The international commodity market exhibited a "weak energy, strong precious metals, differentiated metals, and moderate agricultural products" landscape, driven by macroeconomic slowdown and geopolitical risks [1][2] - Brent crude oil prices fell to around $70 due to increased supply from OPEC+ and other countries, with the World Bank predicting a significant likelihood of declining energy prices in 2025 [1][2] - Gold prices reached record highs due to geopolitical tensions and high global debt, while copper prices rose over 10% due to supply disruptions and demand from the renewable energy sector [1][5] - The correlation between commodity futures and the US dollar index remained high, with limited softening of the dollar impacting market dynamics [1][5] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance, with the overall commodity index remaining stable by mid-year, despite significant fluctuations [3][4] - Energy and chemical sectors, along with black metals and the renewable energy supply chain, experienced downward price trends, influenced by increased coal production and reduced demand for thermal coal [4][5] - The demand for refined copper surged as major economies engaged in a "copper grabbing" trend, driven by a proactive inventory replenishment cycle [3][5] Sector-Specific Insights - Precious metals like gold and silver saw significant price increases of 24.7% and 24.5%, respectively, while agricultural products showed mixed trends [5][6] - The black metal sector faced a "dual weakness" in supply and demand, with steel prices declining over 15% and iron ore showing stronger performance due to increased consumption [6][7] - The lithium and silicon markets faced oversupply issues, leading to price declines, while the overall market dynamics indicated a need for improved trading strategies and risk management [6][7] Outlook for the Second Half - The second half of 2025 is expected to continue the "volatile" trend, with potential shifts in trade policies and geopolitical situations impacting commodity prices [7][8] - Analysts predict that the oil market may oscillate between surplus and production cuts, while "green metals" like copper are expected to maintain structural bullish trends [7][8] - The market may face supply surplus conditions, with price adjustments providing potential trading opportunities, particularly in copper and iron ore [7][8]