交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货101800，基差-300，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：3月3日铜库存增0至257675吨，上期所铜库存较上周增119054吨至391529吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，目前高位 波动，短期震荡运行，关注中东事件 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货102090，基差-1760，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：3月2日铜库存增3975至257675吨，上期所铜库存较上周增119054吨至391529吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，目前高位 波动，短期震荡运行，关注中东事件 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 利多： 利空： 全球政策宽松 和 矿端紧张 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货102140，基差-1780，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：2月27日铜库存增100至253700吨，上期所铜库存较上周增119054吨至391529吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，目前高位 波动，短期震荡运行， ...

铜月报（2026 年2月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2026-2-27 中航期货 目录 02 行情回顾 01 后市研判 03 宏观面 04 基本面 | 1 0 | | --- | | 判 T | | R 研 A | | 市 P | | 后 | 3月铜价建议回调偏多对待 2月铜价跟随贵金属高位回落进入修整阶段，不过价格韧性极强，沪铜10万元上方，LME铜13000美元附近震荡反复，春节期间铜价维持高位。 宏观面：海外风险聚焦于"政策路径分歧"与"地缘政治扰动"。1月非农就业人口增加13万人，大幅高于市场预期，创2025年4月以来最大增幅；失 业率小幅意外降至4.3%，数据强化劳动力市场温和降温预期，中东地缘风险犹存，关注美伊后续进展；国内方面，内需主导，国内深入实施提振消费 专项行动，中国将进入"两会时间"。 基本面来看，全球铜矿品位下降、新项目投产缓慢、资本开支不足等问题难以在短期内解决 全球铜矿品位下降、新项目投产缓慢、资本开支不足等问题难以在短期内解决，铜精矿现货 TC/RC 精矿现货 TC/RC 持 TC/RC 持续处于深度负值区间，冶炼端利 润承压，国 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货101840，基差330，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：2月24日铜库存增1350至243175吨，上期所铜库存较上周增23564吨至272475吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，目前高位 波动，短期震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产缓慢,自由港印尼矿区减产事件 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货100365，基差-15，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：2月23日铜库存增6675至241825吨，上期所铜库存较上周增23564吨至272475吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market in 2025 exhibited a clear structural differentiation, with precious metals leading the market, while non-ferrous and new energy metals also performed well. The year 2026 is expected to see a moderate economic recovery and a more accommodative liquidity environment, with investment strategies focusing on selecting sectors and controlling pace as key to success [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The global economy is projected to recover moderately in 2026, with an upward trend in the global manufacturing cycle and a stable domestic economy despite differentiation. Inflation and corporate profits are likely to rise moderately [3]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to lower global short-term rates, further enhancing the upward potential of the global manufacturing cycle [3]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - The core feature of the capital market in 2026 will be a multi-dimensional "K" type differentiation, characterized by strong external factors versus weak internal factors, old versus new economy, AI versus non-AI, and supply bottlenecks versus supply elasticity [3][4]. - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are anticipated to be the main asset allocation varieties in 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The allocation value of precious metals continues to rise, making them one of the main varieties for 2026. The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the U.S. strategic shift towards Europe and South America are expected to enhance gold's safe-haven and allocation value [4]. - The growth in gold ETFs, particularly in European countries, reflects the increasing allocation value of gold [4]. Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals - The pricing logic of non-ferrous metals is undergoing reconstruction, with a likely upward trend in price centers in 2026. Demand from sectors such as new energy, data centers, and infrastructure investment is driving this change, while traditional real estate demand is declining [4]. - Major countries, led by the U.S. and China, are focusing on resource and key mineral reserves, which will significantly alter short-term supply-demand balance and drive non-ferrous metal prices higher [4]. Group 5: Black and Energy Chemical Sectors - The black metal sector is expected to present limited investment opportunities in 2026, with a tendency towards oscillation due to significant supply elasticity in the industrial chain [5]. - The energy chemical sector offers opportunities primarily in the stock market, with a focus on left-side interventions as capacity cycles peak. The polyester industry is noted for its relatively better fundamentals [5]. Group 6: Geopolitical Factors - Despite an overall optimistic outlook for the commodity market in 2026, a single upward trend is unlikely. Geopolitical disturbances are identified as a key factor influencing market rhythm, with a pattern of "seasonal price increases and actual declines" expected to continue [6][7]. - Geopolitical conflicts may create short-term panic, leading to indiscriminate declines in asset valuations, but these are not expected to evolve into systemic risks. Investors are encouraged to seek out undervalued assets during these periods [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper supply side is disrupted, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The overall situation is bullish. The spot price is 102160, and the basis is 170, showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral. On February 12, copper inventory increased by 4550 to 196650 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week, also neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, which is bearish. The main position is net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish. Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control during the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disruptions, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy. January manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, down 0.8 ppts from last month, manufacturing prosperity declined; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price 102160, basis 170, premium over futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On Feb 12, copper inventory up 4550 to 196650 tons, SHFE copper inventory up 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week; neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Closing price below 20 - day MA, 20 - day MA moving down; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: Main net long position with long positions decreasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances, copper price at new high, high - level fluctuations. Control positions during holidays [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多Factors**: Global policy easing and tight mining supply, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran, Fed rate cuts, slow mining production increase, and production cuts in Freeport Indonesia's mining area [3][4]. - **利空Factors**: Unexpected US comprehensive tariffs, global economic pessimism, and high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4]. 3.3 Inventory - related - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: Bonded area inventory rebounded from a low level [13]. 3.4 Processing Fee - Processing fee declined [15]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance situation. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The US economy still faces downward pressure, which is bearish for silver, and silver may fluctuate passively following gold, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation. - The domestic methanol market has high开工 rates, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, but the price may fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment. - The manganese - silicon market remains in a state of loose supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate around the cost. - The domestic steel market is in the holiday mode, with stagnant downstream demand. The steel price is expected to be stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday. - Fed officials have dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, but geopolitical and US political uncertainties still support gold in the long - term, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation. - The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is positive for long - term bonds, and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but with strong short - term volatility. - The national pig price is still falling, but the downward space is limited, and the far - month contracts are expected to bottom out and wait for a cycle reversal. - The January palm oil report is slightly bullish, but the price increase is limited. The domestic palm oil price is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with a rising price center. - The domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level and demand is weak, but the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term. - Copper production in January exceeded expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand. - Aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to weak demand. - PX supply and demand will weaken during the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Crude oil is in a strong and chaotic accumulation phase, mainly supported by geopolitics, and short - term trading is recommended. - The supply of natural rubber is tightening, but demand is weak during the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - PVC production is stable, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: US retail sales data shows economic downward pressure, which is bearish for silver. It may follow gold and fluctuate, with a mid - term high - level consolidation outlook [1]. - **Gold**: Fed officials' remarks dampen interest - rate cut expectations, but geopolitical and political uncertainties support gold in the long - term, with a mid - term high - level consolidation outlook [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: US commercial crude inventory increased, and the market is waiting for the second - round negotiation between the US and Iran. Crude oil is in a strong and chaotic accumulation phase, with supply pressure still existing [10]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the content. Chemicals - **Methanol**: High domestic methanol开工 rates, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PX**: PX load is expected to run at a high level in February, but supply - demand will weaken during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: PVC production is stable during the holiday, inventory is increasing rapidly, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal production will decline during the holiday, and imports are also expected to fall. The demand side has support, and the price may fluctuate widely [3]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon market has loose supply and demand, with high upstream inventory pressure. The futures price is expected to fluctuate around the cost [3]. - **Steel**: The domestic steel market is in the holiday mode, with stagnant downstream demand. The price is expected to be stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday [4]. - **Copper**: January copper production exceeded expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand [7]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to weak demand [7]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The January palm oil report is slightly bullish, but the price increase is limited. The domestic price is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with a rising price center [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level and demand is weak, but the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [6]. - **Pig**: The national pig price is still falling, but the downward space is limited, and the far - month contracts are expected to bottom out and wait for a cycle reversal [5]. - **Natural Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is tightening, but demand is weak during the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [11]. Others - **Treasury Bonds**: The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is positive for long - term bonds, and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but with strong short - term volatility [5].

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold and silver prices showing sharp increases. The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, but the long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to various factors such as geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases [6]. Group 1: Current Market Performance - As of February 9, spot gold prices rose above $5000 per ounce, reaching $5041 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 1.5%. Spot silver prices surpassed $80 per ounce, reported at $80, with a daily increase of over 2.9% [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract surged over 8%, peaking at a 9% increase, and was reported at 20813 yuan per kilogram [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Multiple institutions suggest that the market is likely in a period of high uncertainty, recommending a cautious approach. However, the long-term bullish trend for precious metals is supported by ongoing supply-demand structural issues, geopolitical disturbances, central bank gold purchases, and ETF investments [6]. - China Galaxy Securities indicates that metal assets may continue to experience volatility, with attention on the U.S. January CPI data to assess inflation persistence and adjust Federal Reserve policy expectations. The core logic for a bull market in precious metals remains solid, shifting from short-term interest rate speculation to hedging against long-term dollar credit risks and global monetary system restructuring [6].