（来源：千龙网） 近日，由中国人民大学澄海全球发展与安全高等研究院主办的2025澄海全球发展报告《世界领导型国家 的锻造与持久胜出——国家兴衰的组织化程度研究》报告发布暨专题研讨会在京举办。来自中国社会科 学院、北京大学、吉林大学、上海外国语大学、杜克大学和中国人民大学的专家学者，就"国家兴衰的 组织化程度"进行了交流和研讨。 中国人民大学国际关系学院院长、澄海全球发展与安全高等研究院院长杨光斌教授指出，2025澄海全球 发展报告试图回答"大国兴衰"问题，采取组织社会学研究路径，通过对中国和西方国家发展的长历史时 段考察，发现在国家发展的过程中既有组织化红利，也有组织化陷阱。报告认为大国兴衰与组织化程度 密切相关，平衡组织化程度以适应社会发展，协调秩序与活力，是大国兴衰过程中亟需研究的问题。 与会专家指出，报告试图回答困扰古往今来无数思想家的问题——"国家因何而兴，又因何而衰"。学界 以往流行的新制度主义解释存在历史困境和比较困境，而组织化程度则提供了分析"大国兴衰"的新视 角。报告基于组织化逻辑重新分析历史上的中国与欧洲，发现了国家兴衰与组织化程度的关联。在新一 轮大国竞争中，中国要寻找持久的胜出之道，必须 ...

Core Insights - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of diversifying asset portfolios, suggesting a 10%-15% allocation to gold as a balance and risk hedge for individual investors [1][14] - He highlights the structural risks associated with high national debt, rising interest rates, and imbalances in bond supply and demand, using the U.S. as a case study [1][2] - Dalio identifies five driving forces behind the rise and fall of nations: debt/credit/money/economic cycles, domestic political order cycles, international geopolitical cycles, natural forces, and human learning and new technologies [1][2] Debt and Economic Implications - Dalio argues that debt issues are not just economic but also political and social problems, as rising debt servicing costs can lead to economic decline and internal conflict [2][3] - He critiques GDP as a measure of debt scale, advocating for a focus on the relationship between government revenue and debt repayment capacity [2][3] - In discussing China's debt, Dalio notes that it is primarily denominated in local currency and held domestically, providing some policy buffer, but warns of challenges from local government debt and real estate adjustments [2][12] Historical Context and Lessons - Dalio's analysis draws on historical debt cycles, asserting that economic issues often lead to political crises, as seen in the 1930s [3][4] - He emphasizes the importance of understanding historical patterns in debt cycles to inform current economic strategies [4][5] - The discussion includes insights from other experts on the interplay between capital markets, political systems, and global geopolitical dynamics [4][5] Investment Strategies - Dalio advocates for a diversified investment approach, particularly in the context of current economic volatility, suggesting that understanding the underlying mechanisms of asset performance is crucial [13][14] - He stresses the need for individuals to avoid speculative behavior and instead focus on maintaining a balanced asset allocation to mitigate risks [10][11] - The conversation highlights the significance of learning from historical financial principles to navigate contemporary investment challenges [14][15]