证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《四季度，票息性价比提升——信用周 报 20250930》 - 2025.10.06 固收专题 去杠杆的国际经验与资产表现 ——债务周期专题之二 20251009 ⚫ 债务周期观察：各部门杠杆率变动分化，付息压力缓和 2025 年上半年，随着赤字率调升带动政府债发行放量，宏观杠杆 率波动项连续两个季度回升，开启新一轮宏观加杠杆小周期。1）居民 部门去杠杆进程较为深入，短期贴息政策或抑制杠杆率跌幅，但趋势 难转，探底回升时间可能相对后置。2）企业部门杠杆率波动项高位震 荡，尚未形成去杠杆趋势。信贷融资需求持续处于偏弱态势，杠杆后 续或呈现缓慢回落态势。3）政府部门杠杆的波动项或将继续震荡上 行。四季度政府部门杠杆率波动项在无新增政策补充的前提下或将有 所回落。预计"化债"方向之下，2026 年财政政策举债规模可能进一步 扩张，以 ...

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 经济数据发布将受到影响。 联储10月降息的预期。 就高物价等经济问题、外交、国际 安全保障问题在党内进行充分讨论。 假期海内 外安间 海外 国内 国庆假期人流量活跃度高于 国庆假期国内商品房成交偏弱 2025年国庆档总票房 去年 据iFinD,国庆假期期间 突破15亿元 据交通运输部,2025年10月 央行:中国9月末黄金储备报 (9.29-10.5) 30大中城市商品 据iFinD,国庆假期前 7406万查司 环比增加4万查司 5日(中秋国庆假期第5日), 房成交套數(二线城市)教量 7日(10.1-10.6),全 央行数据显示,中国9月末黄金 全社会跨区域人员流动量 环比下跌幅度较大,整体成交 国国庆档总票房突破15 储备报7406万查司(约2303.523 29119.72万人次,环比下降 仍相对偏弱。 吨),环比增加4万盘司(约1.24 3.4%,同比(2024年国庆假 吨),为连续第11个月增持黄金。 期第5日）增长3.4%。 8月末黄金储备报7402万盎司。 数据来源:交通运输部、iF ...

2. 宏观不是机器。 1. 微观原则不适用于主权货币国家 达里奥老师最广为流传的论点之一是： 二战后每次金融危机，根源都是债务周期。长期看，债务不可 能永远涨得比收入快；利率也不可能长期高得让借款人受不了，或低得让放款人受不了。 这句话非常符合常识，对企业、家庭、你和我这种"用钱者"都成立。但对国家这种"发钱者"不完全适 用。主权货币的发行者不用像公司那样，成本收益，精打细算，不停取舍；国家可以直接用自己发的货 币，买劳动、买资源，发展技术。 昨天读了徐高怼达里奥的九千字长文《达里奥对于国债问题的认识错在哪里》。徐老师认为其不懂宏 观，把微观方法乱入国家层面。 所以，严格来说，"本币债务"对国家的意义不同于对个人企业。说得更直白点：不管是美元还是人民 币，都是政府垄断发行的。如果政府不先发出来、花出去，大家口袋里就没有钱，达里奥老师自己和桥 水账户里也不会有钱。 我一直觉得达里奥的经济世界观很清奇，文章也写过，播客专辑也讨论过。 但我这种资浅宏观牛马， 只有在大佬撑腰时才敢出来狐假虎威事后诸葛一下。 文章中主要有两个怼点，简单直接。我想很多人内心也都嘀咕过： 1. 微观原则不适用于主权货币国家； 会计恒等式复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversification in personal asset allocation to achieve wealth preservation and growth, rather than engaging in speculation [2][32]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Ray Dalio suggests that a 10%-15% allocation to gold is an effective balance and risk hedge for an individual's asset portfolio [39]. - Dalio advocates for a diversified investment strategy, highlighting that individuals should not solely rely on savings or real estate, as many people do [2][29]. - The concept of "All Weather Strategy" introduced by Dalio focuses on diversification, risk balance, and rebalancing as key components of asset allocation [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Insights - Dalio discusses the significance of debt cycles, stating that excessive debt can lead to economic distress for both individuals and nations [6][13]. - He points out that the current U.S. debt situation is unsustainable, with government spending significantly exceeding revenue, leading to increased borrowing [19][20]. - The article mentions that many countries, including the U.S., Japan, and China, face varying degrees of debt issues, with similar underlying mechanisms [17][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The dialogue highlights the changing global economic landscape, where investors need to adapt their strategies to manage their portfolios effectively [38]. - Dalio notes that understanding the underlying mechanisms of market movements is crucial for managing investment portfolios [39][42]. - The article suggests that a balanced approach to asset allocation can help investors navigate market fluctuations and economic cycles [30][39].

Core Insights - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of diversifying asset portfolios, suggesting a 10%-15% allocation to gold as a balance and risk hedge for individual investors [1][14] - He highlights the structural risks associated with high national debt, rising interest rates, and imbalances in bond supply and demand, using the U.S. as a case study [1][2] - Dalio identifies five driving forces behind the rise and fall of nations: debt/credit/money/economic cycles, domestic political order cycles, international geopolitical cycles, natural forces, and human learning and new technologies [1][2] Debt and Economic Implications - Dalio argues that debt issues are not just economic but also political and social problems, as rising debt servicing costs can lead to economic decline and internal conflict [2][3] - He critiques GDP as a measure of debt scale, advocating for a focus on the relationship between government revenue and debt repayment capacity [2][3] - In discussing China's debt, Dalio notes that it is primarily denominated in local currency and held domestically, providing some policy buffer, but warns of challenges from local government debt and real estate adjustments [2][12] Historical Context and Lessons - Dalio's analysis draws on historical debt cycles, asserting that economic issues often lead to political crises, as seen in the 1930s [3][4] - He emphasizes the importance of understanding historical patterns in debt cycles to inform current economic strategies [4][5] - The discussion includes insights from other experts on the interplay between capital markets, political systems, and global geopolitical dynamics [4][5] Investment Strategies - Dalio advocates for a diversified investment approach, particularly in the context of current economic volatility, suggesting that understanding the underlying mechanisms of asset performance is crucial [13][14] - He stresses the need for individuals to avoid speculative behavior and instead focus on maintaining a balanced asset allocation to mitigate risks [10][11] - The conversation highlights the significance of learning from historical financial principles to navigate contemporary investment challenges [14][15]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of asset preservation and diversification in personal investment strategies, particularly in the context of changing economic cycles and debt issues faced by countries like China and the U.S. [2][4][30] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Personal investors should focus on diversifying their asset portfolios rather than relying solely on savings or real estate investments, as many individuals tend to do [2][30] - A recommended allocation of 10% to 15% in gold can provide a good balance and risk hedge within an individual's asset portfolio [2][38] - The concept of "All Weather Strategy" proposed by Ray Dalio highlights the significance of diversification, risk balance, and rebalancing in asset allocation [3][4] Group 2: Economic and Debt Cycles - Debt is identified as a critical factor influencing a country's economic success or failure, with historical examples illustrating the consequences of excessive debt [9][10] - The article discusses the cyclical nature of debt and its implications for economic stability, suggesting that when a country struggles to repay its debt, it faces broader economic challenges [9][10] - The current U.S. debt situation is described as unsustainable, with significant implications for future economic policies and stability [17][19][21] Group 3: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are encouraged to understand the underlying mechanisms of market fluctuations and to manage their investment portfolios accordingly [37][40] - The article suggests that individuals should not merely follow investment conclusions but should learn to think independently and develop their own strategies for asset management [39][40] - The importance of recognizing the cyclical nature of debt and its impact on personal and national economies is emphasized, advocating for a diversified approach to mitigate risks [30][38]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the asset allocation strategy from a macroeconomic perspective, highlighting the trend of currency depreciation and its impact on capital flows and asset prices since 2022, with a recent shift towards currency appreciation and potential foreign capital inflow into Chinese bonds [1][2][3] Group 1: Currency Trends and Capital Flows - Since early 2022, there has been a trend of currency depreciation leading to capital outflows from developing countries to developed ones, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [1][2] - In July 2023, a shift occurred with the onset of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle and stabilization of the domestic economy, resulting in a trend of currency appreciation in China [2][3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Bonds - As the Chinese currency transitions from depreciation to appreciation, foreign capital is expected to flow into Chinese bonds, which are becoming increasingly attractive due to their relative stability and the country's fiscal discipline [2][3] - The global debt cycle and rising debt costs in other countries make Chinese government bonds a preferred asset for global capital seeking stability and potential appreciation [3][4] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The equity market is anticipated to experience a slow bull market, contrasting with previous rapid bull markets, leading to a more cautious approach to asset allocation [4] - In a slow bull market, investors are likely to rebalance their portfolios between equities and bonds, especially during periods of rapid equity price increases or corrections [4] Group 4: Specific Investment Products - The Ten-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a valuable investment option, being the only product tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange's ten-year government bond index, offering transparency and favorable trading conditions [5]

Core Insights - The event focused on the themes of debt cycles, national rise and fall, and the evolution of global order, featuring prominent figures such as Ray Dalio and other experts [1][5]. Group 1: Key Themes Discussed - Ray Dalio emphasized that the rise and fall of nations and the shifts in order are driven by five major forces: debt/credit/money/economic cycles, domestic political order cycles, international geopolitical cycles, natural forces, and human learning and new technologies [5]. - Dalio compared the credit system to the human circulatory system, highlighting that debt accumulation can squeeze purchasing power, leading to economic and political crises [5][7]. - The discussion included the challenges of high debt levels and rising repayment pressures faced by multiple countries, advocating for "harmonious deleveraging" as a means to achieve a soft landing [5][7]. Group 2: Insights on Debt and Economic Implications - Dalio pointed out that debt issues are not just economic but also reflect political and social problems, warning that high repayment costs can exacerbate internal conflicts and lead to national decline or conflict [7]. - In addressing China's debt situation, Dalio noted that the debt is primarily denominated in local currency and held domestically, providing some policy buffer, but also acknowledged challenges such as local government debt and real estate adjustments [7]. - The importance of understanding the relationship between government revenue and debt repayment capacity was emphasized, suggesting that GDP is not an ideal measure for assessing debt scale [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Dalio reiterated the principle of "diversified allocation" as essential for managing uncertainty, recommending that investors create balanced portfolios and consider gold as a hedge against debt devaluation, with a suggested allocation of 10%-15% [8]. - The focus should be on understanding the mechanisms behind cycles rather than simply applying conclusions from past experiences [8]. - The insights and principles regarding investment are encapsulated in Dalio's book "Why Nations Fail," which is seen as a valuable resource for understanding these dynamics [8].

Macroeconomic Data Overview - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2025 is reported at 5.20%, a decrease from 5.40% in the previous quarter and an increase from 4.70% in the same period last year [1] - The Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is at 49.40, slightly up from 49.30 in July and up from 49.10 year-on-year [1] - The Non-Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is at 50.30, showing a slight increase from 50.10 in July and unchanged from the previous year [1] - The total social financing scale for August 2025 is reported at 25,668 billion yuan, a significant increase from 11,307 million yuan in July and a decrease from 30,323 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The CPI for August 2025 shows a year-on-year decrease of 0.40%, compared to 0.00% in July and 0.60% last year [1] - The PPI for August 2025 shows a year-on-year decrease of 2.90%, an improvement from a decrease of 3.60% in July and a decrease of 1.80% last year [1] Commodity Investment Reference - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that stock prices are currently overvalued but stated that financial stability risks are not high at this time [2] - The U.S. White House's cryptocurrency committee executive director expects the cryptocurrency market structure bill to pass by the end of the year, which aims to consolidate various legislative efforts [2] - The SEC chairman expressed hopes for a new "innovation exemption" rule to be introduced by the end of the year, allowing cryptocurrency companies to launch products more easily [2] Metals - As of September 23, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 32,169,273.34 ounces (1,000.57 tons) of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - International precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.58% to $3,796.9 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 0.12% to $44.265 per ounce [4] Steel Industry - A notice from five departments outlines a growth stabilization plan for the steel industry for 2025-2026, emphasizing the acceleration of key iron ore projects and supporting compliant mining enterprises [6] - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth rate of 4% over the next two years, with a strict prohibition on new capacity [7] Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices have risen sharply, with U.S. crude oil main contract up by 2.20% to $63.65 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up by 1.85% to $67.19 per barrel [8] - The Russian government is discussing extending the export ban on gasoline producers until October and is considering a possible ban on diesel exports [8] - Kuwait's oil minister noted a recovery in global oil demand as oil inventories fall below the five-year average [8] Agricultural Products - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council indicates that upward price potential is limited due to weak demand, while uncertainties in export supply provide some support [10] - Brazil's agriculture ministry announced the reopening of the EU market for Brazilian chicken following an outbreak of avian influenza [10] Financial Market Overview - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 276.1 billion yuan on September 23, with a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan for the day [11] - The People's Bank of China governor met with Ray Dalio to discuss international economic conditions and financial market dynamics [12] - Concerns over local government special bond risks have drawn attention from the National People's Congress, highlighting the rapid growth of government debt [13] Stock Market News - The A-share market experienced wide fluctuations, with major banks showing stability and significant gains in semiconductor equipment and photolithography concepts [27] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.7%, with declines in consumer, real estate, and healthcare sectors [27] - Since the release of the "merger and acquisition six guidelines," over 2,800 A-share companies have disclosed M&A activities, with a notable increase in transactions in the semiconductor sector [27]

中国央行潘功胜会见来访的桥水基金创始人达利欧，双方就国际经济形势及金融市场动态等交换看法。会后，达利欧就债务周期等话题与央行及外管局工作人员进行交流。 https://t.co/qrfntPqWjP ...