国家可再生能源基金补贴
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永兴股份(601033):2025Q3点评:陈腐垃圾掺烧加速及并购子公司带动Q3业绩高增25.6%
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-29 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 750 million yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, growing 23.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, which is a 25.6% increase year-on-year [2][4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s operating gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points, while the expense ratio decreased by 3.0 percentage points in the first three quarters. The comprehensive gross margin stood at 43.8% [2][11]. - Capital expenditure continued to decline, with cash flow remaining healthy. The capital expenditure for the first three quarters was 370 million yuan, a decrease of 14.0% year-on-year [11]. Business Drivers - The significant growth in performance is attributed to the accelerated co-incineration of aged waste and the acquisition of subsidiaries. The company has actively expanded its waste treatment services, significantly enhancing the capacity utilization of its waste-to-energy projects [11]. - The company signed a cooperation agreement for the excavation of aged waste in Guangzhou, aiming to process 2.37 million tons over approximately three years, which is expected to sustain performance in the coming years [11]. Market Positioning - The company possesses several advantages over its peers, including high-quality project locations, low national subsidy ratios, and high calorific values, which contribute to excellent cash flow performance [11]. - The company’s projects are primarily based on government procurement services, which provide a quasi-perpetual operating model, suggesting a premium in DCF valuation compared to traditional BOT models [11]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 940 million, 1.05 billion, and 1.12 billion yuan, respectively. The current market capitalization corresponds to PE ratios of 15.6x, 14.0x, and 13.1x for the respective years [11].