证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-03-04 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 金融产品深度报告 20260303：黄金 ETF，2026 年 2 月复盘与 3 月展望 指数后市展望： 关键事件前瞻：展望后市，金价定价逻辑仍受通胀就业 数据验证、联储政策校准及地缘博弈三维驱动。特别是美伊冲突若进一步 升级，引发避险情绪与能源通胀预期的共振，将强力推升金价;但若宏观 数据锚定软着陆、降息路径收窄、地缘冲突快速结束，金价或面临一定调 整压力。整体判断，价格运行延续"事件驱动+预期摇摆"特征，维持高 位震荡与韧性抬升并存格局。 指数走势展望：资金博弈显示定价逻辑已 由"趋势配置"转向"情绪驱动"。地缘与政策的不确定性使得市场反应 更为敏锐。若白银等贵金属板块联动走强，有望带动黄金情绪持续走强； 反之，若流动性边际收紧，金价或承压整理。整体判断，黄金后续短期或 延续高频波动，中期趋势则继续保持上行爬升的走势。 相关 ETF 产 品：华安黄金 ETF（518880.SH）紧密跟踪国内黄金现货价格收益率，追 求跟踪偏离度和跟踪误差最小化，截至 2025 年 2 月 27 日， ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 环保行业深度跟踪 垃圾焚烧多元特性，AI 时代下重估其价值 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-01 | [Table_Pic 相对市场表现 2025Quote] -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 10/24 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 环保 沪深300 | [Table_Author 分析师： ]陈龙 | | | --- | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260523030004 | | | 021-38003623 | | | shchenlong@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 郭鹏 | | SAC 执证号：S0260514030003 | | | SFC CE No. BNX688 | | | 021-38003655 | | | guopeng@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 荣凌琪 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Shengyuan Environmental (300867) reported stable operations in its main business areas of waste incineration power generation and urban sewage treatment, with continuous optimization in operational quality and profitability, indicating a solid and improving fundamental outlook [1] Group 1: Business Operations - The company’s main business segments, waste incineration power generation and urban sewage treatment, are performing steadily [1] - Operational quality and profitability are continuously improving, reflecting a strong fundamental performance [1] Group 2: New Business Initiatives - The company is actively expanding into the health industry, focusing on taurine raw materials and their derivatives [1] - The taurine raw material project is set to commence production soon, which is expected to cultivate new growth drivers and long-term development momentum for the company [1] - Stakeholders are encouraged to pay attention to the relevant sections in the company's 2025 annual report for further insights [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shengyuan Environmental Protection (300867) is focusing on its main businesses of waste incineration power generation and urban sewage treatment while actively developing a new health industry centered around taurine raw materials and their derivatives [1] Group 1: Business Focus - The company currently operates in waste incineration power generation and urban sewage treatment [1] - The company is also developing a new health industry focused on taurine raw materials and their derivatives [1] Group 2: Future Plans - For the year 2026, the company aims to enhance the refined operational management of existing projects and expedite the production and efficiency of new projects under construction [1] - Specific development goals and work plans for 2026 will be detailed in the company's 2025 annual report [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The Southeast Asian waste incineration market is poised for significant growth, with a projected demand for incineration capacity reaching 222,000 tons per day by 2030 and 491,000 tons per day by 2050, representing an investment opportunity exceeding 100 billion [6][15] - The domestic waste incineration market in China has entered a mature phase, with the operational capacity reaching 1.16 million tons per day by the end of 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [16][20] - The profitability of waste incineration projects in Southeast Asia is expected to be significantly higher than domestic projects, with potential net profit margins exceeding 25% under optimistic scenarios [6][15] Summary by Sections Domestic Waste Market - The domestic incineration market is relatively saturated, with listed companies' capacity under construction accounting for less than 10% of total operational capacity [16][26] - The business model of waste incineration is resilient, characterized by stable profits and strong cash flow, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for the waste incineration sector in Q1-Q3 2025 [28][31] Southeast Asian Waste Incineration Market - Population growth and urbanization are driving waste generation, making incineration the preferred solution for urban management in Southeast Asia [6][15] - The incineration rate in Southeast Asia is expected to accelerate, with significant investment opportunities available [6][15] Profitability and Operational Risks - High electricity prices and disposal fees are enhancing profitability, with revenue from Southeast Asian projects estimated to be 1.8 to 2.7 times that of domestic projects [6][15] - The operational environment in overseas markets presents complexities that require enhanced local management and risk mitigation strategies [6][15] Recommendations - Focus on operators using BOT/BOO models for overseas investments, such as Weiming Environmental, Junxin Co., and China Tianying [6][15] - Consider equipment and engineering firms like Sanfeng Environment that leverage their manufacturing capabilities to enter overseas markets [6][15]

Core Viewpoint - The company, China Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Group Co., Ltd., is undergoing a significant asset restructuring, with commitments to resolve industry competition issues within five years after completion [1] Group 1 - The company announced on February 2 that there are still some projects not injected into the listed company during the 2023 major asset restructuring [1] - The company has stated that the related projects will be managed by the listed company, which is entrusted by China Environmental Protection Group Co., Ltd. [1] - As of the date of the semi-annual report in 2025, the company will have 47 project companies engaged in waste incineration power generation [1] Group 2 - There are 13 project companies primarily engaged in waste incineration power generation directly controlled by China Environmental Protection Group [1] - The commitment to resolve the industry competition issue is part of the restructuring process [1]

本文来自微信公众号： 正解局 ，作者：正解局 有个事，可能超出很多人的认知： 以下文章来源于正解局 ，作者正解局 正解局 . 解读产业，发现价值。产业/城市/企业。 从"垃圾围城"到"垃圾不够烧"，这不只是一个环保逆袭的故事。 答案也没那么简单。 最近很多媒体，不约而同关注到了深圳罗湖区的这座垃圾山，沉睡了二十多年的玉龙垃圾填埋场。 11.69万平方米的超大绿色天幕下，多台挖掘机有序工作着，对这座沉睡近30年、海拔110米、高差 达46米的垃圾山，进行精准"解剖"。 这也是目前全国体量最大、全量开挖的垃圾环境修复治理工程。 这座填埋场建于1983年，1997年停用，2005年底实施封场，曾是深圳市最早、最大的生活垃圾填埋 场之一，累计填埋垃圾超过410万吨，大约有250万立方米，差不多2.5个"鸟巢"那么大。 臭气、蚊蝇、渗滤液污染…… 在当年，在城市快速扩张的年代，焚烧技术尚未成熟，填埋是唯一的选择，这座填埋场是不得已的存 在。 直到2019年，深圳南山二期、宝安三期、龙岗三大能源生态园提前投产运行，全市新增垃圾焚烧处 理能力1.03万吨/日，总设计焚烧能力达到1.8万吨/日，最高可达2万吨/日。 深圳在全 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the environmental operation industry as stable, with specific segments rated as follows: waste incineration power generation - stable, hazardous waste disposal - negative, and recycling of renewable resources - stable [5] Core Insights - The environmental industry is undergoing a structural transformation driven by both policy and market forces, with waste incineration power generation transitioning towards a market-driven model despite challenges such as regional supply-demand imbalances and reliance on policy for profitability [4][21] - The hazardous waste disposal sector is experiencing profound changes, with persistent overcapacity and intense price competition, leading to pressure on profits and a need for technological breakthroughs and increased industry concentration [22][23] - The recycling of renewable resources is expanding in scale while facing internal challenges, with a focus on technological advancements and efficiency improvements expected to accelerate transformation by 2026 [4][21] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - The waste incineration power generation sector is shifting towards a market-driven model, characterized by trends such as network collaboration, market-oriented operations, intelligent upgrades, and international competition [9][20] - The hazardous waste disposal industry is marked by structural overcapacity and low-price competition, with a need for rational behavior among market participants and a focus on resource recovery and digital regulation [22][23] - The recycling industry is experiencing both expansion and structural upgrades, with leading companies expected to gain advantages through core technologies and specialization in emerging sectors [4][21] Financial Performance - Waste incineration companies are benefiting from market-oriented operations and international orders, leading to improved cash flow and reduced leverage [7] - Hazardous waste disposal companies are facing increased operational pressures, with many reporting significant losses and negative cash flow [7] - The financial performance of recycling companies varies widely, with overall profitability remaining moderate and leverage levels slightly increasing [7] Conclusion - The waste incineration sector is expected to achieve a balance between supply and demand through regional collaboration and raw material optimization, with a shift towards diversified revenue models and enhanced technological integration [20][21] - The hazardous waste sector is anticipated to continue facing challenges related to overcapacity and competition, necessitating a focus on high-value resource recovery and digital regulation [22][23] - The recycling industry is projected to undergo significant transformation driven by technological advancements and efficiency improvements, with leading firms positioned to capitalize on these trends [4][21]

Group 1 - The core business of Datong Fuqiao, a subsidiary of Feima International, includes waste incineration power generation, heating, and sludge disposal, but does not currently involve photovoltaic power generation [2] - Feima International confirmed that there are no short-term plans for photovoltaic power generation projects [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant advancements in waste management in China, particularly focusing on the large-scale garbage relocation and treatment project at the Yulong landfill in Shenzhen, which is the largest of its kind in the country. The project aims to address historical waste issues through innovative technologies and has implications for the broader waste-to-energy industry in China [1][19]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Yulong landfill, established in 1983 and closed in 2005, contained approximately 2.5 million cubic meters of waste, equivalent to filling 1,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools. The full excavation and relocation project commenced in 2024 and is expected to be completed by September 2026 [1]. - The height of the garbage mound, which reached 110 meters, has been completely leveled, and the site is now covered with large dust-proof fabric. Nearby, a waste sorting workshop with six giant conveyor belts is operational, ensuring that residents do not see or smell the waste [3]. Group 2: Waste Management Technology - Traditional landfill methods have led to significant land use and secondary pollution issues, prompting a shift towards waste incineration as a mainstream waste management solution in urban areas. This shift has alleviated the "garbage siege" problem that plagued many cities in the 1990s [5]. - China has made substantial progress in waste-to-energy technology, transitioning from a follower to a leader in the field. The country has developed a complete industrial chain for waste incineration, including waste collection, equipment manufacturing, and project operation [6][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market for waste incineration power generation in China is projected to reach approximately 73 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease from nearly 100 billion yuan in 2020 due to the reduction in available waste for incineration [9]. - Major players in the waste management sector include Everbright Environment, which holds over 15% market share, followed by companies like Sanfeng Environment and Huanlan Environment. The industry is characterized by a competitive landscape with a few leading firms [5][15]. Group 4: Regulatory and Operational Framework - The Chinese government has prioritized waste incineration as a key direction for solid waste management since the "11th Five-Year Plan." The strategic importance of waste-to-energy has increased with the introduction of the "dual carbon" goals and the concept of "waste-free cities" [8]. - The most common business model for waste incineration projects is the BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) model, where companies are granted long-term operating rights to manage waste treatment facilities [16][18]. Group 5: Challenges and Innovations - Some regions are experiencing a "not enough waste to burn" phenomenon, particularly in newly constructed incineration plants in county-level areas, where the actual waste generation is lower than anticipated [15]. - Companies are exploring new waste sources, such as industrial solid waste and sludge, and are investing in technology innovations to enhance operational efficiency and project quality [18].