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长假前后,消费、房市、股市会怎样?大数据告诉你答案
和讯· 2025-09-29 08:35
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated trends in travel, consumption, real estate, and stock markets during the upcoming "super golden week" combining National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, highlighting a significant rebound in travel and consumption patterns post-pandemic, with expectations for continued growth in various sectors [2]. Travel - National travel during the National Day holiday is expected to exceed 2.204 billion trips, with an average of 57.27 million daily trips, marking a 57.1% increase compared to the same period in 2022 [3][4]. - The travel structure shows a shift towards self-driving and personalized travel, while traditional public transport methods like long-distance buses are declining [4][5]. - By 2025, the travel volume is projected to surpass that of 2023, with railway passenger numbers expected to reach 150-180 million and civil aviation passenger numbers potentially exceeding 18-22 million [6]. Consumption Tourism - The tourism market is entering a stable growth phase, with 2023 seeing 826 million domestic trips and a revenue of 753.43 billion yuan, reflecting a 71.3% year-on-year increase [9][12]. - The trend of early travel planning and off-peak travel is becoming the norm, with expectations for 2025 to see 800-900 million trips and tourism revenue reaching 750-850 billion yuan [12]. Dining - Dining consumption is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a significant rebound in 2023, particularly in tourist hotspots [14][16]. - The combination of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025 is anticipated to further boost dining demand, with overall dining consumption projected to grow by 5%-10% compared to 2024 [16]. Film - The film market is recovering, with 2023 seeing a 37.16% increase in box office revenue compared to the previous year, although still below 2019 levels [17][20]. - The 2025 National Day film lineup includes diverse genres, with box office predictions ranging from 2.2 to 3 billion yuan [20]. Retail - Retail consumption is expected to grow by 6%-10% during the 2025 holiday, driven by strong demand for new energy vehicles, food and beverage, and liquor sectors [23][24]. - The retail market is characterized by diverse consumption scenarios and a focus on quality and brand upgrades [24]. Real Estate - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with some cities experiencing increased transaction volumes during the National Day holiday in 2023 [25][27]. - By 2025, the market is expected to stabilize, with localized peaks in transactions due to promotional activities [29]. Stock Market - Historical data indicates an average return of +2.1% during the National Day holiday window, with a higher probability of positive returns following the holiday compared to before [30][31].