Macro - The bond market has partially digested three major concerns, with actual impacts being lower than market expectations. However, upward policy impulses and a positive start for the economy and stock market may continue to pressure bond market sentiment. Favorable factors include the lack of strong explanatory power of government bond supply on interest rate trends and the central bank's willingness and ability to maintain liquidity. The overall outlook for the bond market is not pessimistic, and current strategies should focus on allocation while patiently waiting for trading opportunities [5]. Non-ferrous Metals - As of January 5, 2026, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices reached 23,300 yuan/ton, the highest since March 2022. The copper-aluminum price ratio peaked at 4.5, the highest since 2003, indicating potential acceleration in aluminum replacing copper in certain sectors. Disruptions in overseas electrolytic aluminum supply and limited short-term expansion of new capacity are noted. The aluminum consumption in 2026 is expected to remain resilient due to the transformation of old and new driving forces and the rise of emerging fields. Policy expectations in both domestic and international markets are gradually solidifying the bottom for alumina prices [5]. Petrochemical - Future policies will focus on "anti-involution" and the elimination of outdated production capacity. The profitability of high-energy-consuming industries like calcium carbide and chlor-alkali is at a low point, and intensified competition on the cost side is expected to accelerate the exit of outdated facilities. This will help reduce industry supply and increase concentration, while also promoting the modernization and large-scale development of facilities, thereby enhancing the overall competitiveness of the calcium carbide and chlor-alkali industries [5]. Overseas TMT - Minimax, a leading general multimodal large model platform, has entered a phase of scaled commercialization as of 2025. The company's business model centers on self-developed general large models, achieving commercialization through API calls, model customization, solution output, and proprietary AI applications. The company is increasing R&D investment to enhance model training, inference efficiency, and multimodal capabilities, establishing technical and data barriers. Additionally, the open platform model lowers the entry threshold for downstream customers, increasing model usage and ecosystem stickiness [7]. - The company, Zhiyuan Huazhang, is a provider of general multimodal large models and AI native applications, focusing on commercializing model capabilities. Its commercialization path centers on model API calls, while also offering model customization, project solutions, and AI native application services. Revenue recognition is primarily linked to model usage volume, service fulfillment progress, and specific delivery situations. The prospectus indicates that the company is still in the commercialization development stage, with continuous growth in model usage expected as downstream application scenarios expand [7]. Internet Media - The film market is anticipated to transition from "single film support" to "multiple strong resonance" and structural repair. Although Q1 2026 faces high base pressure from the 2025 release of "Nezha 2," the overall market is expected to return to normalization and show moderate growth throughout the year, driven by the diversification of leading domestic films and the recovery of imported film supply [8]. Infrastructure - Hongrun Construction, a leading enterprise with technical experience and project management capabilities, has accumulated over 300 kilometers of shield tunneling in more than 20 cities, including Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ningbo. The company is deeply integrated with core urban agglomerations under the "Yangtze River Delta Integration" strategy, with stable business in rail transit, municipal, and underground space. In recent years, the company has been advancing a strategy of "construction + new energy + technology," expanding from traditional infrastructure to areas such as photovoltaic energy storage, distributed energy, and intelligent construction, resulting in a more balanced growth structure [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated trends in travel, consumption, real estate, and stock markets during the upcoming "super golden week" combining National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, highlighting a significant rebound in travel and consumption patterns post-pandemic, with expectations for continued growth in various sectors [2]. Travel - National travel during the National Day holiday is expected to exceed 2.204 billion trips, with an average of 57.27 million daily trips, marking a 57.1% increase compared to the same period in 2022 [3][4]. - The travel structure shows a shift towards self-driving and personalized travel, while traditional public transport methods like long-distance buses are declining [4][5]. - By 2025, the travel volume is projected to surpass that of 2023, with railway passenger numbers expected to reach 150-180 million and civil aviation passenger numbers potentially exceeding 18-22 million [6]. Consumption Tourism - The tourism market is entering a stable growth phase, with 2023 seeing 826 million domestic trips and a revenue of 753.43 billion yuan, reflecting a 71.3% year-on-year increase [9][12]. - The trend of early travel planning and off-peak travel is becoming the norm, with expectations for 2025 to see 800-900 million trips and tourism revenue reaching 750-850 billion yuan [12]. Dining - Dining consumption is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a significant rebound in 2023, particularly in tourist hotspots [14][16]. - The combination of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025 is anticipated to further boost dining demand, with overall dining consumption projected to grow by 5%-10% compared to 2024 [16]. Film - The film market is recovering, with 2023 seeing a 37.16% increase in box office revenue compared to the previous year, although still below 2019 levels [17][20]. - The 2025 National Day film lineup includes diverse genres, with box office predictions ranging from 2.2 to 3 billion yuan [20]. Retail - Retail consumption is expected to grow by 6%-10% during the 2025 holiday, driven by strong demand for new energy vehicles, food and beverage, and liquor sectors [23][24]. - The retail market is characterized by diverse consumption scenarios and a focus on quality and brand upgrades [24]. Real Estate - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with some cities experiencing increased transaction volumes during the National Day holiday in 2023 [25][27]. - By 2025, the market is expected to stabilize, with localized peaks in transactions due to promotional activities [29]. Stock Market - Historical data indicates an average return of +2.1% during the National Day holiday window, with a higher probability of positive returns following the holiday compared to before [30][31].