国庆长假效应
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每周研选|十大券商策略展望:短期关注降息预期兑现后的市场波动 国庆长假后风险偏好或显著改善
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 12:25
Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing short-term fluctuations due to the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has led to a temporary decline in market sentiment [1][3][4] - Historically, the A-share market shows a calendar effect around the National Day holiday, with trading volume typically decreasing before the holiday and improving afterward, leading to a rebound in major indices [2][4] - The current market adjustment is viewed as a short-term phenomenon, with long-term upward momentum still expected for the indices [1][3][6] Group 2 - The probability of major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rising after the National Day holiday exceeds 60%, indicating a strong likelihood of recovery [2] - A shift in market style is anticipated in the fourth quarter, with a potential rotation towards defensive sectors as investors take profits from previously outperforming sectors [8] - The long-term growth narrative for A-shares remains intact, driven by improvements in corporate profitability and supportive domestic policies [7][11] Group 3 - The current market environment is characterized by increased volatility, with a focus on sectors that align with policy expectations and emerging trends in technology and consumption [4][10][12] - The trend of Chinese manufacturing companies expanding their global presence is expected to enhance their market capitalization and profitability [9] - Investment opportunities are emerging in sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy, as well as in cyclical industries benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics [10][11]