Core Viewpoint - Under the dual policy support, state-owned sector investment growth reached 6.5%, with actual growth estimated to exceed 8% after price factors are deducted, significantly supporting investment growth and the economic foundation amid declining real estate development investment and stagnant private investment [1][3][4]. Investment Trends - In Q1 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 103,174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. After accounting for a 2.3% decline in PPI, the actual growth rate of fixed asset investment was approximately 6.5%, surpassing GDP growth by about 1 percentage point [4][5]. - Private fixed asset investment grew by only 0.4% in Q1 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of minimal growth since 2022. Manufacturing private investment increased by 9.7%, while infrastructure private investment rose by 9.3% [2][7]. Sector Analysis - The first industry saw an investment of 2,081 billion yuan, growing by 16.0%, while the second industry investment was 36,141 billion yuan, increasing by 11.9%. The third industry investment was 64,952 billion yuan, with a marginal growth of 0.1%, indicating a significant decline in private investment in real estate [8][13]. - The decline in real estate development investment, which fell by 9.9% in Q1 2025, has heavily impacted private investment growth, with estimates suggesting that the decline in private real estate investment is even more pronounced [2][22]. Regional Investment Performance - Investment growth varied by region, with the northeastern region showing a growth of 9.7%, primarily driven by state-owned sector investment. The eastern region grew by 2.2%, while the central and western regions saw growth rates of 5.5% and 6.2%, respectively [9][20]. Legislative Impact - The passing of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" on April 30, 2025, aims to support private economic organizations in participating in major national strategies and projects, potentially leading to a rebound in private investment as the real estate market stabilizes [3][21].

Group 1: Investment Trends - In Q1 2025, private investment grew by 0.4%, marking the fourth consecutive year of minimal growth since 2022, primarily impacted by a decline in real estate development investment, which fell by 9.9% [1][7] - Excluding real estate development, private investment increased by 6.0% in Q1 2025, while national fixed asset investment reached 103,174 billion yuan, growing by 4.2% year-on-year [1][3] - The share of private investment in national fixed asset investment dropped to below 50% for the first time since 2012, with a recorded share of 50.1% in 2024 [1][7] Group 2: Sector Performance - Manufacturing sector private investment rose by 9.7%, continuing a trend of high growth since 2021, driven by factors such as export growth and supportive policies [1][7] - Infrastructure private investment also saw a significant increase of 9.3%, contrasting with a decline in private investment in the tertiary sector, which fell by 7.7% [1][6] - The first industry investment grew by 16.0%, while the second industry investment increased by 11.9%, indicating robust performance in these sectors [5][6] Group 3: Economic Contributions - Net exports contributed significantly to economic growth, increasing by 50.4% and accounting for nearly 40% of GDP growth, despite a 6.0% decline in imports [2][4] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy supported a 4.6% growth in retail sales of consumer goods, highlighting the potential for further consumption growth [2][3] - State-owned investment grew by 6.5%, helping to stabilize overall investment growth amid declining private investment and real estate development [2][5] Group 4: Legislative Support - The newly passed Private Economy Promotion Law aims to enhance private investment by encouraging participation in national strategies and major projects, effective from May 20, 2025 [2][7] - The law is expected to support a rebound in private investment as the real estate market stabilizes [2][7]